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Counter-thoughts! How Bharat can help stabilize Afghanistan

That's brilliant sense of geo politics - right?
It was about survival and we have succeeded. Unfortunately 1971 incident happened but it was due to internal difference. Else in each scenario u have listed earlier we made best among the worst decisions!
 
You want a simpler answer

Here it is :

You wanted to dominate Afghanistan after 1989 and hence you created the Taliban

But 9 / 11 happened ; Afghanistan came out of your influence
and now you want to control it again

But it is going to be impossible
I think u should correct ur self man. Read somewhere how and when talibans came in being. Stop blaming each and every thing on us. though I have listed that after creation of taliban we accepted them because they brought stability where ever they went. Pakistan had no choice but to support one who is better for us even if it was taliban!

And yes Afghanistan survival depends on us. They do nothing except arms and opium production. They have easy access to Pakistani markets. India can create chaos for sometime but eventually brothers will always be brother!!
 
your history of the relationship between India and Pakistan starts at partition and post partition and with the issue of Kashmir. China is to us as USSR was to you. And granted we have a doctrine based on India but that is because our relationship with India is very rocky and war is very probable. .
And thus china used this to play santa, and nullify the chinese border for ever, as India now has to manage constant engagement.

Because the dynamics are diffrerent. Where there was hate for each other post partition the case is not the same with Afghan Pakistan relations and with talks with taliban back there is a strong chance that the areas near Pakistan will be very pro Pakistan soon. Also India has lots of investments in Afghanistan which will be open targets, and you will have to deal with what nearly bankrupted America and brought USSR to its knees which it will not want to do. In the state of Afghan government failing, the grip of Pakistan will just get stronger.

See, Pakistan makes India's job easy. You treat Afghanistan as your backyard, that creates automatic resentment in thier leadership. Even now your establishment's rhetoric is without Islamabad's backing there will be no peace, like you control the tap through which peace flows.

My estimate is US will stay longer, keep Pakistani involvement in check, assymetric stuff will continue, in next two decades parts of afghanistan will develop and be a non hostile government to India. India will keep it's infrastructure development in afghanistan and forge better relations.
 
India can not do anything. You used the groups like Gulbudin Hikmatyar to bomb Kabul and inflicted a lots of pain on Afghanistan and created a haterate in Afghan People. It is neither in the hand of India or you to create any good will in Afghanistan for Pakistan.
 
That does not even cover the amount of interest that you will have to PAY to China
for the Power plants that China has promised as a part of CPEC
first of all the interest paid, it is not a loan but they will take profit per unit from consumers. Plus the concept of factories working at one third output will start working properly. Seriously you need to work on your economics. And even after hefty profits they are more feasible then furnace oil and the earnings and jobs created should give the economy a good push. What the economy is managing without basic utilities is proof that with a sound industry it can outperform other economies in the region.
 
I think u should correct ur self man. Read somewhere how and when talibans came in being. Stop blaming each and every thing on us. though I have listed that after creation of taliban we accepted them because they brought stability where ever they went. Pakistan had no choice but to support one who is better for us even if it was taliban!

And yes Afghanistan survival depends on us. They do nothing except arms and opium production. They have easy access to Pakistani markets. India can create chaos for sometime but eventually brothers will always be brother!!
pardon me for my ignorance but I have three very simple questions.
1. How do you define stability?
2.If taliban brought stability, would you welcome them in your country?
3.Between the choices PDPA Parcham led by Burhanuddin Rabbani /Dr Najibullah's government and the Mullah omar's taliban, on what merit did pakistan make it's choice.?
 
first of all the interest paid, it is not a loan but they will take profit per unit from consumers. Plus the concept of factories working at one third output will start working properly. Seriously you need to work on your economics. And even after hefty profits they are more feasible then furnace oil and the earnings and jobs created should give the economy a good push. What the economy is managing without basic utilities is proof that with a sound industry it can outperform other economies in the region.

Before investing China will first look very carefully WHO will pay back to China
in US dollars for all the power generated

Whether it is Government of Pakistan or private companies
somebody has to pay the bill

The terms are heavily loaded on China's favour

And please read this article AGAIN

Courting China with care - Newspaper - DAWN.COM
 
Counter-thoughts! How Bharat can help stabilize Afghanistan

Easy!

Totally discourage anti-Pakistan elements in Afghanistan.

yeah yeah. We all know enemy of my enemy is my friend logic.

But there is something called Karma! that happens to be the biggest Beeeaaaach so to speak.

Having pro-Pakistan elements in Afghanistan doesn't and cannot hurt Bharat. This is due to puny population of Afghanistan (20 mil) compared to 1300 mil of Bharat. then a distance and "land bridge" away from Bharati borders.

However we in the subcontinent are cursed for 1000s of years with a mentality called "A raja must fork the neighboring Raja, even if he has to call in Afghanistani hoards".

And thus tiny tiny tiny warlords in Afghanistan came in and occupied the whole of Central India (southern tip excluded).

Ranjeet Singh changes everything


Then came the period of Ranjeet Singh. He with his clever politics and military tactics, wiped out warlordism from North West subcontinent.

Warlods in Afghanistan were pushed beyond the natural boundary and Khyber pass.

This status will continue and in fact stabilize the whole of Afghanistan if and only if we follow Ranjeet Singh's policies.

However sadly, Bharat is following the policies of Ranjeet singh's sons, thus helping create anarchy in the Afghanistan region since 1947.

There is no need for Bharat to get involved in proxy wars of Afghanistan. It will bring long term harm to both Afghanistan and especially bharat.

Bharat should be like China,

helping stabilize the region. here are simple steps:

1. just like China, Bharat must encourage Afghanistani reconciliation
2. just like China, Bharat must not allow anti-Pakistan statements by Afghanistani leadership

These 2 simple steps will bring immense trade benefits to Bharati industrialists and thus engineers.

Here are the facts:

1. Bharati exports to Pakistan per year recently = $3200 millions (Pak population = 200 mil)
2. Bharati exports to Afghanistan per year recently = $140 millions (Afgh population = 20 mil)

Total westwards exports = $3340 million

This can increase 10 times in few years if Afghanistan-Pakistan region is fully stable as China is trying hard to make it.

So the question to Bharati intellectuals is simple.

Would Bharatis like to increase your exports to Af-Pak $30 billion a year?

or just throw everything down the drain like medieval rajas used to?

Choice is yours.



peace to you
Nice thoughts and intentions, but it is not that easy as you depicted... As Bhaarat is already trying to stable Afghanistan, even if Bhaarat tries to improve pakistan's impression in Afghanistan, there are several more issues which need to be fixed between indo-pak, only after which Pakistan will allow us to connect Afghanistan directly...

yes it can be viewed as a step to reduce distance between india and pakistan, and it will be percieved by common pakis as good gesture by India...but then again foreign tactics, lack of faith in each other, blah, blah, and blah
 
And thus china used this to play santa, and nullify the chinese border for ever, as India now has to manage constant engagement.
The same could be said for Russian policies regarding India. Allies look at their advantages, and Pakistan has always managed before Chinese help and with Chinese help.
See, Pakistan makes India's job easy. You treat Afghanistan as your backyard, that creates automatic resentment in thier leadership. Even now your establishment's rhetoric is without Islamabad's backing there will be no peace, like you control the tap through which peace flows.
Oh your theory is interesting but then again Afghans are tribal people and read any anaylsiss on the country and you will see that is true. There are many tribes which will never desert Pakistan and that is where your analysis falters you expect the government of Afghanistan to be stable and representative of the wishes of the people.
My estimate is US will stay longer, keep Pakistani involvement in check, assymetric stuff will continue, in next two decades parts of afghanistan will develop and be a non hostile government to India. India will keep it's infrastructure development in afghanistan and forge better relations.
America already accepts the role of the Taliban and the role of Pakistan, and though parts of Afghanistan will develop but in that department you will have to compete again with Chinese and Pakistanis combined which will be very difficult. You view asymmetric war fare as one sided but the fact that the number of attacks has decreased and a major clean up has started is all thanks to India, whose policies have helped us take steps which we have been reluctant to before. And with American think tanks acknowledging Indian involvement in asymmetric warfare, India will not be able to cry wolf when it returns to bite it.

And please read this article AGAIN
My point in raking up this information is not to suggest that the terms being offered are exorbitant. In fact, they sound somewhat reasonable considering what IPPs currently in the system get, and the kinds of return on equity the sponsors were asking for then and now are high by global standards, but not unusual in Pakistan.
from the article. read it and understand realities before jumping to conclusions. Plus most of our raw cotton goes out to India, Bangladesh, etc and are converted to value added goods. And our mills run at quarter of their capacity. With electricity those will start running and improve the economy with jobs and reduce poverty, etc etc dependable power, 1000 MW cheap electricity through nuclear energy, 1000 cheap through solar and near 1500 through Hydel and coal all will be cheaper then furnace oil even after 50 percent profits
 
pardon me for my ignorance but I have three very simple questions.
1. How do you define stability?
2.If taliban brought stability, would you welcome them in your country?
3.Between the choices PDPA Parcham led by Burhanuddin Rabbani /Dr Najibullah's government and the Mullah omar's taliban, on what merit did pakistan make it's choice.?
I hope my answers to ur earlier questions were sufficient. Now for current:
1. Stability in Af-Pak region is mostly the security at western border, peace inside Pakistan, reduction of drugs flow, healthy and free trade between all neighbours
2. Pakistan was made on its own ideology and we will follow it. We don't need any taliban or US or anyone else to define our policies or rule of law.
3. I told u earlier, we do not care whoever comes into power in Afghanistan. All we "prefer" is politically stable rule in Afghanistan which should be safe for whole region. Even China, Russia and Iran want same from Afghans.
 
The same could be said for Russian policies regarding India. Allies look at their advantages, and Pakistan has always managed before Chinese help and with Chinese help.
You are quite conveniently forgetting the ceato sento and what not you signed to get f86 sabres, t37 tweets etc, when India was still buying it's hardware primarily from britain and france. Untill Indo-Chinese war, I don't think you had a single bullet coming from them. but then enemy of an enemy formula was used by both you remarkably well.

Oh your theory is interesting but then again Afghans are tribal people and read any anaylsiss on the country and you will see that is true. There are many tribes which will never desert Pakistan and that is where your analysis falters you expect the government of Afghanistan to be stable and representative of the wishes of the people.
But then again India's primary focus would be developing a limited industrial base in Afghanistan catering to the limited mass. The tribes allying with pakistan is not based on political ideology but in kinship which is mostly pashtun demographic, last time Pakistan pushed this advantage and propped up one of the most heinous and draconian regime in the history of mankind, so a repeat of the same would barely yield different results. Tribal outlook hasn't counted for national policies of afghanistan , look into Saur revolution.

America already accepts the role of the Taliban and the role of Pakistan, and though parts of Afghanistan will develop but in that department you will have to compete again with Chinese and Pakistanis combined which will be very difficult. You view asymmetric war fare as one sided but the fact that the number of attacks has decreased and a major clean up has started is all thanks to India, whose policies have helped us take steps which we have been reluctant to before. And with American think tanks acknowledging Indian involvement in asymmetric warfare, India will not be able to cry wolf when it returns to bite it.

America accepts role of Taliban after bombing Taliban out of kingdom kom, pursuing them in pakistan and going to extent of violating it's allies sovereignty to bomb them, it's called diplomacy... If mullah Omar props his head out of his tent tonight, there will be a hell-fire with his name on it, rest assured. That's what american policy is. when you are so attentive to american think tanks on India, then why the selective reading, please pay attention to state dept, US generals and ISAF generals on Pakistan's role too, why ignore that part of it?

I hope my answers to ur earlier questions were sufficient. Now for current:
1. Stability in Af-Pak region is mostly the security at western border, peace inside Pakistan, reduction of drugs flow, healthy and free trade between all neighbours
2. Pakistan was made on its own ideology and we will follow it. We don't need any taliban or US or anyone else to define our policies or rule of law.
3. I told u earlier, we do not care whoever comes into power in Afghanistan. All we "prefer" is politically stable rule in Afghanistan which should be safe for whole region. Even China, Russia and Iran want same from Afghans.
dear sir, the ones before weren't answers and neither are these.

1. Stability in you definition which brought peace inside pakistan came at cost of hazara and tajik genocide. It came at the cost of one of the worst draconian rules that the modern world has witnessed. - all this came with pakistani collusion. To me that is not stability. I won't wish such stability even upon my worst enemy.

2. That is great answer. Then please explain why would you unleash hordes of talib-e-ilm cannon fodder from Jamiat Ulema-e-Islami from Darul Uloom Haqqania on the afghans, I doubt they did anything to you to deserve that?

3. That is quite contrary to what your government and most prominent members here says.... they want a Pro- pakistan government, not a stable one, which even in the past by your own definition of stability meant a monstrous regime like that of taliban.

So to sum up, you say you want a stable afghanistan.... taliban according to you brought stability... you wish such stability onto afghans but god forbid not your own country... looks like stability for afghans and pakistan have distinctively different meaning and definitely different delivery modes.

I would also repeat my previous question again as I am a novice on the topic.
"Between the choices PDPA Parcham led by Burhanuddin Rabbani /Dr Najibullah's government and the Mullah omar's taliban, on what merit did pakistan make it's choice.?"
 
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America accepts role of Taliban after bombing Taliban out of kingdom kom, pursuing them in pakistan and going to extent of violating it's allies sovereignty to bomb them, it's called diplomacy... If mullah Omar props his head out of his tent tonight, there will be a hell-fire with his name on it, rest assured. That's what american policy is. when you are so attentive to american think tanks on India, then why the selective reading, please pay attention to state dept, US generals and ISAF generals on Pakistan's role too, why ignore that part of it?
There are talks with Taliban going on now, and talks that have just ended. Facts are a good friend. Pakistan has unpleasant relationships with America because of this issue, and you pointed it out as well. Imagine how Indian relations will be when it goes through using same asymmetric warfare. Sponsoring terrorists in today's world is very wrong, and the best laid plans leave threads that can be followed. You think it a coincidence that acts of terrorism have decreased to a level of relative security and safety without indoor diplomacy and policy shifts.
But then again India's primary focus would be developing a limited industrial base in Afghanistan catering to the limited mass. The tribes allying with pakistan is not based on political ideology but in kinship which is mostly pashtun demographic, last time Pakistan pushed this advantage and propped up one of the most heinous and draconian regime in the history of mankind, so a repeat of the same would barely yield different results. Tribal outlook hasn't counted for national policies of afghanistan , look into Saur revolution.
The regime that stayed so long has tentacles in every major branch and its influence in areas bordering Pakistan is second to none. That is what I am trying to explain that bonds of kinship will always favour Pakistan and it is not like Pakistan has no projects going on currently or has not helped the Afghan people. Try talking to some Afghanis rather then form views based on a few media reports.
You are quite conveniently forgetting the ceato sento and what not you signed to get f86 sabres, t33 tweets etc, when India was still buying it's hardware primarily from britain and france.
We got the planes and used them effectively the how and what was needed is not important.
 
There are talks with Taliban going on now, and talks that have just ended. Facts are a good friend. Pakistan has unpleasant relationships with America because of this issue, and you pointed it out as well. Imagine how Indian relations will be when it goes through using same asymmetric warfare. Sponsoring terrorists in today's world is very wrong, and the best laid plans leave threads that can be followed. You think it a coincidence that acts of terrorism have decreased to a level of relative security and safety without indoor diplomacy and policy shifts.

Wait a min, i in no way condoned assymentric warfare against pakistan, when i said assymetric stuff will continue, I meant taliban attacks on afghan and Indian infrastructure wihich will degenerate relation with pakistan.

There are talks with Taliban going on now, and talks that have just ended. Facts are a good friend. Pakistan has unpleasant relationships with America because of this issue, and you pointed it out as well. Imagine how Indian relations will be when it goes through using same asymmetric warfare. Sponsoring terrorists in today's world is very wrong, and the best laid plans leave threads that can be followed. You think it a coincidence that acts of terrorism have decreased to a level of relative security and safety without indoor diplomacy and policy shifts.

When I say India must do to Pakistan what China has done to India, means building infrastructure, and conventional competence to provide a pivot for a credible threat perception in western flank for Pakistan. Because china has not aided any terrorists emanating from Pakistan against India directly.

And as far as asymmetric warfare is concerned I have often wondered where LET, JEM, HuA terrorists forge their barrels, machine their receivers, form thier casings, mix their gunpowder, buy their sat phones, make thier rpg's , and mark PoF on their grenades etc. I wish your government would have pious thoughts like you do, we wouldn't be having this conversation.[/QUOTE]

We got the planes and used them effectively the how and what was needed is not important.
So essentially your premise of placing USSR and China in the same bracket is wrong.
 
Wait a min, i in no way condoned assymentric warfare against pakistan, when i said assymetric stuff will continue, I meant taliban attacks on afghan and Indian infrastructure wihich will degenerate relation with pakistan.
Well, Pakistan will not need to attack infrastructure, it is investing itself in a road from Peshawar to Kabul. And you imagine that India has no hand in terrorist actions. Very naive. War is not going to be fought with tanks and the WMD of this century are car bombs, a very famous analysis post 9/11
So essentially your premise of placing USSR and China in the same bracket is wrong.
the amount of help India received and is receiving is un-paralleled till now.
When I say India must do to Pakistan what China has done to India, means building infrastructure, and conventional competence to provide a pivot for a credible threat perception in western flank for Pakistan. Because china has not aided any terrorists emanating from Pakistan against India directly.
that policy will never succeed because both sides of the border have families living with the same roots. With that is the fact that of the Taliban influence. They still have shadow government in place with governors and taxes and outside a few strongholds the Taliban can move around unchecked. Plus like I said we can always expect China will negate any Indian influence.
 
Well, Pakistan will not need to attack infrastructure, it is investing itself in a road from Peshawar to Kabul. And you imagine that India has no hand in terrorist actions. Very naive. War is not going to be fought with tanks and the WMD of this century are car bombs, a very famous analysis post 9/11
Like attacking consulates, political offices, schools hospitals etc? these I doubt garner afghan good will.

the amount of help India received and is receiving is un-paralleled till now.
From whom? do remember, we bought out hardware from USSR, France, Britain... none of it came in soft loans, and thus we never had KGB or MI6 using us as a sandbox for their operations. we had to fight for our sovereignty and no aid or f16's are worth for us parting our freedom.

that policy will never succeed because both sides of the border have families living with the same roots. With that is the fact that of the Taliban influence. They still have shadow government in place with governors and taxes and outside a few strongholds the Taliban can move around unchecked. Plus like I said we can always expect China will negate any Indian influence.
Do you see that, by banking on this shadow government you are directly undermining the afghan government whom you claim to be allying with. This is the difference between your and our approach, anyways, it was good talking to you. we will pick it up later amigo....
 

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