Could Pakistan, China, and Russia be cuddling up?

[Blue Marlin]

China, Pakistan, and Russia – An Upcoming Super Axis?
OCTOBER 31ST, 2015

F. A. EDITORIALS / OPINIONS0 COMMENTS4

China, Pakistan, and Russia is expected to become a strong axis in the near future.
Relationships between China and Pakistan have always been brotherly, with both countries involved in exceptional trade ties both economically and socially. China and Pakistan displayed superior relations with regards to military and defense as well. Reportedly, ties between Russia and Pakistan are now strengthening, especially after the Pak-Russia deal on Mi-35s and Su-36s, and a gas pipeline. Furthermore, Russia is edging away from the United States given the disagreements over resolution of Syrian Crisis, and so is China especially after the recent patrolling of U.S. sea vessels in South-China Sea. Another reason to believe that Russia is tilting towards Pakistan is because India is warming up to the States. It would seem that a bipolar world is forming with China, Pakistan, Russia and a host of other major countries of Central Asia on one side, and the U.S., U.K., Europe, Japan, India etc. on the other side. Of course, this transformation does not command peace no matter how it is sliced.

China has always been a traditional ally of Pakistan and has supported her through thick and thin, by all means, against rivaling India, and since Russia was hit by Western sanctions in 2014, she has been on the lookout for other major, strategic partners. One would assume it were India, but Moscow has taken an interest in Islamabad.

i never knew pakistan was getting su-36's
where did that come from?

Yes it would be natural to merge Russia-China strategic partnership with Pakistan-China alliance into a trilateral bloc, or say an expanded Eurasian bloc (+CAS +Iran +Mongolia +Belarus). All three countries will benefit from deepening tie in economy as well as security. After all, the three are beginning to share the same geo-strategic vision.

it would be SCO nations and close allies

 

[sady]

My humble opinion is that relations of countries in today's world are not static but fluid and dynamic. Even 'enemy of enemy is a friend' does not stand true. Trade and economy considerations blur the lines further. There are tilts and associations rather than rigid blocks and poles of pre cold war era. China need US as much as US needs China for its economy. India and Russia relations are also in a re arrangement or a new equilibrium as is Pak-US relations and Pak-Russia relations.
When it comes to regional alliances and associations India will get its fare share of leverage due to its size of economy and will be able to have a room to play between both sides. Good news is Pakistan too has substantial leverage due to its geography and close association with China. There are however few considerations;
1. In current course of how things are shaping up specialy in Pacific and ME .Russia-China alliance seems strong then ever. The gulf between US-West and China-Russia will favour Pakistan in long term, however if the dynamics between China-Russia-US change, it may take this edge away from Pakistan.
2. India is not dependent on this rift. India will actually benefit from shrinking distances between US snd Russia-China. However there is a limit to what leverage India has and will have to take up a side when push comes to shove and will have to pay for it. India cannot harbour delusions of Grandeur of being an independent power not under constraints of a new bipolar world.
3. Russia's tilt to Pakistan will depend on what Russia will get out of Transit and energy corridor , how much Russia will need China to ward off American influence as well as how much India will tilt to Americans in their quest to encircle China. Russians will be very careful in this balancing act.
4 Lastly Pakistan will be a force to reckon with and benefit from these developments only if it continues to improve its security situation, economic indicators and stability. This also is the weakest link in this chain which will be a focus of powers to be in order to thwart this regional alliance.

 

[dadeechi]

I would be so glad to se India in this team.But you pakistanis and indians are not going to play with each other, right?

"PRIC" is going to prick.

 

[Shotgunner51]

This is where the problem lies. Personally, I think both China and Russia are just as fond of meddling in other countries' affairs as much as The U.S if not more only if their logistics and finances(among many factors) wouldn't be a problem.

The thing is, how I see it, Pakistan wouldn't mind China's supremacy over itself or The world but could the same be said about Russia? I mean, everyone's aware of Russia Military superiority over China. Personally, I doubt Russia's gonna
play by China's rule. That is not to say such an alliance isn't possible - Perhaps China and Russia could divide their
spheres of influence. Interesting times ahead either way.

Time has changed my friend, I don't see it being a major concern. The ultimate objective for our three nations is to deliver prosperity to the every single individual Pakistani, Russian & Chinese, it's not about empty rhetoric like supremacy or dominance. Better connectivity, economies that complement each other, common markets, currency free from control of third party, these are rationales behind an integrated bloc. In this regard, China can contribute more to the team in designing the initiatives like OBOR, regional energy-industrial plan, financial arrangement, etc.

The world isn't perfect, other than historical problems like territorial dispute, neocon warhawks in Washington who profit from wars will never cease do whatever in their best benefits like breeding terrorism, orchestrating proxy wars or even full-scale wars. Hence while Pakistan, Russia and China are pooling efforts in building a prospering economic bloc, adequate attention shall be laid on securing economic progress & achievements. In areas like weaponry tech, forces deployment, Russia being a world superpower can definitely take the leadership role. Russian intervention in Syria combating foreign sponsored terrorism is a good example.

Located at the cross-road between East, Arab World & Africa, linking cold Eurasian continent to the warm southern seas, Pakistan is both the cultural gateway as well as geographical center of this geo-economic bloc.

Therefore instead of dividing up spheres of influence, Pakistan, Russia & China are all equal partners that have a lot to contribute to, as well as benefit from, an integrated bloc. The same may go for CAS, Iran, Mongolia, Belarus, and whoever shares same geo-strategic vision.

 

[SipahSalar]

How about no? We Pakistanis will be happy to mind our own business in our own little sandbox as long as Kashmir issue is resolved.

 

[dadeechi]

Great! A Pakistani in Russia. How is it?

True, Pakistan should work together with the Russian Federation and offer a port on Pakistan's coast line. It would do miracles for the relationship.

Now as for Bharat joing this axis. I am all for it, however Bharat (the current ruling ideologues) cannot accept Pakistan as a partner.

It does not matter if India accepts Pakistan or Pakistan accepts India.

The only countries that matter are Russia & China.

If Russia also joins CPEC than this would be true

Its not a question of If Russia joining CPEC but when.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Eurasian bloc (+CAS +Iran +Mongolia +Belarus

+China+Pakistan would be nightmare for US and the present dominant order.

 

[dadeechi]

It's up to India. Pakistan tried and failed at convincing India to come to the table and negotiate all subjects so that peace could prevail. If India wants it, both nations could have peace tomorrow.

India tried too but Pakistan did not respond. With all three super powers supporting Pakistan, I think it is smelling the blood and is going to go for the kill this time.

 

[Husnainshah]

Time has changed, I don't see it being a major problem

Neither do I. It's still a hurdle nonetheless.

The ultimate objective is to deliver prosperity to the every single individual Pakistani, Russian & Chinese,

Sure. Though I doubt each nation will equally benefit from this partnership and understandably so.
Case in point: The U.S. That is not to say the nation to benefit the least doesn't have anything for it in this deal,
it has plenty - only less than a nation that's contributing more. And that's fair(at least practical) enough.

it's not about empty rhetoric like supremacy or dominance

Influence and Prosperity are interlinked. Wouldn't ya say prosperity of a nation has a lot to do with it's influence over other nations?

neocon warhawks in Washington who profit from wars will continue to do whatever in their best benefits like breeding terrorism, orchestrating proxy wars or even full-scale wars.

They only exploit the prevailing differences.

In areas like weaponry tech, forces deployment, Russia being a world superpower can definitely take the leadership role

That could loosely be translated into Russia taking the overall leadership role. How would that sit with China should that ever happen?

Therefore instead of dividing up spheres of influence, Pakistan, Russia & China are all equal partners

You're over-simplifying it. Why should Pakistan enjoy equal perks while it's contributing not that much comparatively?

 

[Indus Pakistan]

The interesting thing about Russia, Central Asia, Iran, Pakistan, China and Mongolia is they all would be geographically contiguous. They would occupy greater portion of the Euroasian landmass.

 

[Talwar e Pakistan]

@TMA

Lots of arguments but one simple one can be seen by the difference in 1971 and 2000s.
From a time when Soviet Union deterred 2 super powers to intervene in India, to sanctions on India and pulling back from many important programs under the American pressure.

Friends and good business partners will be good terms to describe the two.

Yes and the Soviet Union payed the price for doing that and picking a fight with Pakistan.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Influence and Prosperity are interlinked. Wouldn't ya say prosperity of a nation has a lot to do with it's influence over other nations?

Yeah of course prosperity has "influence", anything can have some sort of "influence"! Even the lack of prosperity could have "influence", say dire poverty in one populous neighbour is affecting China exports. This rhetoric is again too vague, can be anything, so what exactly you mean?

They only exploit the prevailing differences.

Yeah, and enlarge them, the bigger the better. If there is none, create one, remember Saddam's WMD vs "International community"?

That could loosely be translated into Russia taking the overall leadership role. How would that sit with China should that ever happen?

"Loosely translated into", what kind of dictionary you are using, "force" translates into "overall leadership"? In people to people friendship, or marriage, or in business partnerships, even in joint venture firms, there may not necessary be absolute leadership, are these concepts new to you or what?

Sure. Though I doubt each nation will equally benefit from this partnership and understandably so.
Case in point: The U.S. That is not to say the nation to benefit the least doesn't have anything for it in this deal, it has plenty - only less than a nation that's contributing more. And that's fair(at least practical) enough.

Ok you mean if a nation benefit less for contributing less, that's fair. Fine

You're over-simplifying it. Why should Pakistan enjoy equal perks while it's contributing not that much comparatively?

Why Pakistan enjoys more perks than she contributes? Unfair huh? OK then, you may got the numbers, how much more?

You are over-complicating it, so it's fair or unfair according to you?

 

[That Guy]

India tried too but Pakistan did not respond. With all three super powers supporting Pakistan, I think it is smelling the blood and is going to go for the kill this time.

I doubt it. Pakistan doesn't want a conflict with India, times have changed. Kashmir may be a priority, but it is no longer on top of the agenda. Right now, Pakistan's priority is bringing stability to it's western border, which is why Russia and China are supporting Pakistan, and the US is (once again) playing nice with Pakistan.

 

[Husnainshah]

Yeah of course prosperity has "influence", anything can have! Even the lack of prosperity could have "influence" say dire poverty in neigbour is affecting China exports. This rhetoric is also too vague, can be anything, so what exactly you mean?

REALLY? Was it that hard to grasp? The reply was in reference to the following quote:

The ultimate objective for our three nations is to deliver prosperity to the every single individual Pakistani, Russian & Chinese, it's not about empty rhetoric like supremacy or dominance.

Influence over other nations' affairs has a lot to do with prosperity of every single individual Pakistan, Chinese and Russian. Meaning supremacy/Dominance isn't exactly mere 'empty rhetoric', but a useful tool.

Yeah, and enlarge them, the bigger the better. If there is none, create one, remember Saddam's WMD vs international community?

Never base your argument on exceptions.

"Loosely", can you be exact? "translated into", what kind of dictionary you are using, Force translates into Leadership? In people to people friendship, or marriage, or in business partnerships, even in joint venture firms, there may not necessary be absolute leadership, are these concepts new to you or what?

Was I talking about people to people relations? Do Russia and China sound like people to ya?

Equal partnership is a principle, apply that principle to all the deals from trade, investment to security co-op. You are challenging why Pakistan enjoys more perks than she contributes? Unfair? Alright then, you may got the numbers, how much?

I am confused, So it's fair or unfair according to you?

Well, being a Pakistani, I assure ya, Pakistan has a beggar's mentality. I'm sure not many would complain about that 'equal' status if that's what ya want. It's both fair and unfair depending on who you ask. There's not much wrong with it from a Pakistani's point of view. Doubt that's how Russia and China are gonna see it though.

 

[dadeechi]

I doubt it. Pakistan doesn't want a conflict with India, times have changed. Kashmir may be a priority, but it is no longer on top of the agenda. Right now, Pakistan's priority is bringing stability to it's western border, which is why Russia and China are supporting Pakistan, and the US is (once again) playing nice with Pakistan.

That's exactly the point that I am trying to make. Pakistan is the flavor of the season and has hit the golden patch. It has no incentive to go for a compromise and settle issues with India.