if I was civilian leader in bd i would not do it much different, is all am saying. bd is doing pretty good economically and has managed to balance relationship with all big countries effectively. bd also has some history of army takeover, so its pragmatic to keep army weak and hooked onto dollars(earned from UN deployment)... bd does need a sizable army to protect herself from either of her neighbor so maintaining force level makes sense. but giving any substantial teeth to them leads to adventurism, that can topple civilian govt.
Myanmar situation is relatively small issue for bd in grand scheme of things, and diplomatic solution by engaging with international community is correct way forward. BD should keep pressing on it.
Keep the army weak to prevent a takeover? In the history of Bangladesh, I do not think the army engaged in any adventurism against another country in history.
Of-course I hope for a diplomatic solution. However, military intervention is not off the table but it should be the last resort.
Spending more on arms is just a part of a change that is required in BD strategy.
Definitely.
Look at it this way. Myanmar is planning to spend 2 billion US dollars on defence this year which is 3% of their GDP. BD is planning to spend 3.2 billion US dollars which is 1.25% of BD GDP. BD need not increase defence spending massively but a hike to 2% of GDP would mean that BD defence budget would be 2.5x what Myanmar spends. Assuming this increase is phased in over 5 years then it should not massively impact other areas like education, health and infrastructure that are also important. My point is that unless Myanmar goes back to eating arms, it cannot hope to come close to matching even a modest increase in defence spening by BD.
Agreed. But from who should we source the weapons from? Can we trust the current suppliers? Even if we spend money on arms, it won't necessarily give us an edge against them.
For example, if we buy 8 MiG-35's (one of the very likely contenders in our combat aircraft tender), they'll buy twice as many. They are now interested in the MiG-35 as we speak. By the time the PAK-FA matures for mass production sometime in 2020-2025-ish timeline, they will undoubtedly be offered such.
All I'm saying is that we have to have an edge over them not just by having a sound doctrine, but keep the equipment and the technology behind them as far away from Burmese or any rogue entity as possible. This is an essential part of our security should we play a zero sum game against their Junta.
The future of warfare and bearing fruitful results lies not in physical arms and big spending, but in the ethereal. Those who can see the subtle are bound to get the rewards. One has to be formless and yet make an impact just like water.
Not easy, I know. But, it is essential.
BD politics needs to be reorietanted to see both Myanmar and India as major threats to BD wellbeing. While not being overtly hostile to India, BD needs to maintain relations at a more distant level that it does now. India has an interest in a subservient BD.
Absolutely. And that is the hard and unpredictable part. Even though SHW is apprehensive about the refugee influx (she has every reason to be), I am not certain how her party will be able to handle the diplomacy.
Finally China should be used for infrastructure loans, weapons imports and joint development but BD needs to understand that in certain key areas like Myanmar, it may not necessarily side with BD.
We have many lenders like IMF, World Bank, ADB, etc. There are many private financial institutions abroad willing to give loans and do give loans to various PPP projects, Bangladeshi enterprises and banks which enhance their Off-shore portfolio. What is so special about Chinese loans? They may be nice, but they don't necessarily offer us any edge.
I say we do business with them. Same with the Russians.
As far as arms imports go, I would look someplace else to be honest. It is worth mentioning China's frustrated efforts to create an engine for modern aircraft. What value can we possibly offer and what value can we get?
The only reason we buy arms from China is because they are cheap, and fills their pockets. That is it. They don't have strategic depth here in BD. It is the big picture, not 'certain key areas' that count. Strategy doesn't work that way. They have a lot of stake in Burma.
Disagree that BD needs to wait for the world. There is no strategic interest for large powers like the US and EU to act in Myanmar. BD needs to increase it's military capability, make common cause with key powerful Muslim countries like Turkey and Iran, and hit the Myanmarese hard with full force as soon as it can. Diplomacy will not work with inherently racist and anti-Muslim savages from across the border.
Much of the economic activities will be going on in Asia, more specifically in South East Asia. And it will be that way for a long time. Ask any banker, economist, politician or diplomat and they'll tell you that. No one is ignoring that part of the region. Why do you think so many are going nuts over South China Sea? It will be just as important as the Middle East. Everyone has a stake there including the US and its allies in the region. You don't see that because the UK has indeed been a very passive player of late. They should do more so that people take notice. And playing field is here, in Asia.
Yes, absolutely we should make friends with powerful Muslim-majority nations. Especially with Turkey being a NATO member. Though, the current administration had antagonized some of those countries along the Middle Eastern nations. The attitude of having the tendency of taking things personally needs to go.
And lastly, information is a powerful weapon. We have to provide more and more evidence via the UN that there had indeed been a genocide so that the world can act against the Junta and rid them once and for all. We have to convince the Russians and the Chinese. That way, the UNSC can act, and we hold both the military and the civilian leadership accountable. Bangladesh needs to be on the spotlight to make the case for intervention. Without global and regional support, it'd be meaningless, and their plight forgotten. This will take time but it will be worth it.
That is not right as BD will use miltary force to protect a defenceless civilian population rather than kill and raping them.
It is their territory, their country. It just wouldn't be right. Also, there's a massive propaganda campaign going on in there. About Bangladesh wanting to conquer Rakhine through terrorism (which is of-course a huge lie). Doing so would prove them right. They'll simply seize that initiative while burying their brutal acts so that the world forgets. They have set the groundwork for us. Now, we set the groundwork for them in return.
