Could Myanmar and Bangladesh Go To War Over the Rohingya Crisis?

[bluesky]

Who was talking about BD opening another front?
No idea about the rest of your post. Sorry.

Read the other posts where people are talking, specially @Top Cat (may be in some other thread) that India will intervene to support MM with action. I did not say, BD will open a front. I said I am skeptic about India opening a front with BD.

 

[Nabil365]

Border fences around BD are the credible evidences. BD is the only one country in the world that is completely surrounded by walls. If there are no illegal BD migrants, there will be no border fences. Very simple.

Border fence is an evidence itself?
Lol
Thats a no brainer.

 

[UKBengali]

Read the other posts where people are talking, specially @Top Cat (may be in some other thread) that India will intervene to support MM with action. I did not say, BD will open a front. I said I am skeptic about India opening a front with BD.

Sorry I meant India opening another front, which is not going to happen.
India already has China and Pakistan as enemies, it would not wish to create
another one in BD by supporting Myanmar militarily against BD.

As far as major weapons suppliers are concerned, apart from China and Russia who
are the current major arms suppliers to BD, who else do you think BD needs to source
from in order to make sure it's military is not hobbled by stopping of resupply by any one
supplier?

 

[bluesky]

Sorry I meant India opening another front, which is not going to happen.
India already has China and Pakistan as enemies, it would not wish to create another one in BD by supporting Myanmar militarily against BD.

As far as major weapons suppliers are concerned, apart from China and Russia who are the current major arms suppliers to BD, who else do you think BD needs to source from in order to make sure it's military is not hobbled by stopping of resupply by any one supplier?

1) India needs BD more than it needs MM, because BD is giving it all the connectivity to its NE and Tripura. However, it is also building a sea port in Sittwe, which will serve as a transit point for Indian goods to and from the southern NE. So, India cannot displease MM by criticizing the latter's Rohingya policy, because it will cause MM to open more to China. This may be the reason why India is trying to please MM.
2) China needs MM more than it needs BD. China is building a deep seaport in Kyakpyu of Arakan. This will give China a long cherished direct corridor to the BoB. BD is not in a position to give similar facility because it has no border with China. China influences BD by lending project money only to dissuade BD from Indian sphere of influence.
3) As every one knows, countries like China, Russia, Ukraine and Serbia sells weapons to BD. USA and Korea also sold us some ships.
4) Now, about possibility of purchasing from other sources. It is only the USA that can replace the Chinese source with its weapons of superior technology. But, neither BD can afford nor the Uncle Sam would want to sell such weapons to a tiny country like BD which has no orbit of influence outside the country. BD's geographical location is weak.
5) However, if the USA is interested to build a naval base somewhere in the BoB and BD gives it the permission the equation will change overnight. But, why USA should seek a naval base? It is because there will be two strong naval bases in the east and west of BD. One is Indian base in Orissa and the other is Chinese base in Kyakpyu.
6) Contrary to the opinion of BD posters, I believe that USA certainly is not happy to depend on India for information about the Kyakpyu base. So, it may want its own naval base to spy on both the Indian and Chinese bases. The most logical place will be in BD.
7) Only if BD gives it the base facility it may be possible that USA will look after the BD interest and sell sophisticated weapons, although I have doubt about it.
8) However, who can trust a country called United States of America. If USA is a friend, a country does not need any other enemy.

 

[UKBengali]

1) India needs BD more than it needs MM, because BD is giving it all the connectivity to its NE and Tripura. However, it is also building a sea port in Sittwe, which will serve as a transit point for Indian goods to and from the southern NE. So, India cannot displease MM by criticizing the latter's Rohingya policy, because it will cause MM to open more to China. This may be the reason why India is trying to please MM.
2) China needs MM more than it needs BD. China is building a deep seaport in Kyakpyu of Arakan. This will give China a long cherished direct corridor to the BoB. BD is not in a position to give similar facility because it has no border with China. China influences BD by lending project money only to dissuade BD from Indian sphere of influence.
3) As every one knows, countries like China, Russia, Ukraine and Serbia sells weapons to BD. USA and Korea also sold us some ships.
4) Now, about possibility of purchasing from other sources. It is only the USA that can replace the Chinese source with its weapons of superior technology. But, neither BD can afford nor the Uncle Sam would want to sell such weapons to a tiny country like BD which has no orbit of influence outside the country. BD's geographical location is weak.
5) However, if the USA is interested to build a naval base somewhere in the BoB and BD gives it the permission the equation will change overnight. But, why USA should seek a naval base? It is because there will be two strong naval bases in the east and west of BD. One is Indian base in Orissa and the other is Chinese base in Kyakpyu.
6) Contrary to the opinion of BD posters, I believe that USA certainly is not happy to depend on India for information about the Kyakpyu base. So, it may want its own naval base to spy on both the Indian and Chinese bases. The most logical place will be in BD.
7) Only if BD gives it the base facility it may be possible that USA will look after the BD interest and sell sophisticated weapons, although I have doubt about it.
8) However, who can trust a country called United States of America. If USA is a friend, a country does not need any other enemy.

US already wanted base in BD I think but BD not interested as that would upset the Chinese.
I was thinking more along the lines of Iran and Turkey for land weapons, SAMs and aircraft
like the upcoming Turkish TF-X. These two nations will 100% resupply BD in war against Myanmar.
China should still be kept as a major supplier as it can supply very good weapons like planes and ships at low price. They are required to balance against India.
So I forsee by 2030, China, Russia, Turkey and Iran as the 4 major arms suppliers to BD.

 

[bluesky]

US already wanted base in BD I think but BD not interested as that would upset the Chinese.
I was thinking more along the lines of Iran and Turkey for land weapons, SAMs and aircraft
like the upcoming Turkish TF-X. These two nations will 100% resupply BD in war against Myanmar.
China should still be kept as a major supplier as it can supply very good weapons like planes and ships at low price. They are required to balance against India.
So I forsee by 2030, China, Russia, Turkey and Iran as the 4 major arms suppliers to BD.

Since last 50 years I have been hearing the US wish of a naval base in BD. Whatever it may be, I do not really believe, USA can give us security. Rather, it will attract the Jihadi terrorists in BD soil. However, a US naval listening post will give the US a firsthand information of the naval development in Orissa and Arakan as well as the entire BoB.

I can see many news about Iranian introduction of many new weapons made in Iran. After the collapse of USSR, the then poor Russia could not afford to employ many famous engineers and scientists in its payroll. So, many went to Iran with their expertise to earn salary in oil dollar. Tehran went ahead in weapons technology including nuclear ones and missile system.

However, any weapon requires meticulous examination for many decades to bring maturity. I wonder, if both Iran and Turkey have been able to do so. Turkey itself gets NATO weapons instead of producing these in its own soil. Turkey still remains the sick man of Europe. However, it has submarine technology that it borrowed from Germany. So, the question is, can these two countries be our source of specialized weapons that China can supply?

So, it is perhaps our fate that BD will continuously depend on Chinese and Russian weapons although both these countries support MM in the UNSC, until perhaps when it is more wealthy that its dollar can buy sophisticated but expensive French weapons as well.

 

[Banglar Bir]

04:23 PM, September 24, 2017 / LAST MODIFIED: 05:13 PM, September 24, 2017
In a sense, Myanmar declared war against Bangladesh by sending Rohingyas: Muhith

Finance Minister AMA Muhith. File photo
Star Online Report
Terming Rohingya refugee influx in Bangladesh a disaster, Finance Minister AMA Muhith today said that in a sense Myanmar has declared war against Bangladesh by sending the people.
“In a sense, Myanmar has declared war by sending the Rohingyas to Bangladesh. They are trying to jeopardise our economy by sending people from their country,” Muhith said.

The finance minister said this while talking to reporters after launching a health camp at a factory in Tongi of Gazipur, reports Bangla daily Prothom Alo.

“A disaster is taking place in the country at the moment. Here, over four lakhs of refugees have taken shelter from our neighbouring country Myanmar,” he said.

Our life has been shaken greatly by this, the finance minister added.

He demanded that the rights of the Rohingyas should be established in their own country.

“Myanmar should know this well that we will always try for establishing their rights as our prime minister is giving her effort in this regard,” he added.
http://www.thedailystar.net/world/r...ohingyas-says-finance-minister-muhith-1467040

 

[UKBengali]

Since last 50 years I have been hearing the US wish of a naval base in BD. Whatever it may be, I do not really believe, USA can give us security. Rather, it will attract the Jihadi terrorists in BD soil. However, a US naval listening post will give the US a firsthand information of the naval development in Orissa and Arakan as well as the entire BoB.

I can see many news about Iranian introduction of many new weapons made in Iran. After the collapse of USSR, the then poor Russia could not afford to employ many famous engineers and scientists in its payroll. So, many went to Iran with their expertise to earn salary in oil dollar. Tehran went ahead in weapons technology including nuclear ones and missile system.

However, any weapon requires meticulous examination for many decades to bring maturity. I wonder, if both Iran and Turkey have been able to do so. Turkey itself gets NATO weapons instead of producing these in its own soil. Turkey still remains the sick man of Europe. However, it has submarine technology that it borrowed from Germany. So, the question is, can these two countries be our source of specialized weapons that China can supply?

So, it is perhaps our fate that BD will continuously depend on Chinese and Russian weapons although both these countries support MM in the UNSC, until perhaps when it is more wealthy that its dollar can buy sophisticated but expensive French weapons as well.

Turkey is working with UK to create it's 5th generation fighter so I have little doubt that this fighter will be the equal of anything that BD can source from China. Remember that Turkey is considered a developed country now and has had decades of technology transfer from US and now it has teamed up with both Italy and S Korea to manufacture it's own attack helicopter and tank.
Iranian SAM technology should be sufficient for a nation like Myanmar.
We need to remember that both Turkey and Iran are improving at faster rates than the leaders in the West.
BD does not need the best but be good enough to take on Myanmar.

 

[bluesky]

We need to remember that both Turkey and Iran are improving at faster rates than the leaders in the West.
BD does not need the best but be good enough to take on Myanmar.

I think, outcome of a war is decided on the ground. An aimless BD-MM war is not what BD should seek. If it wants to fight it should seek the help of the locals, i.e the Rohingya ARSA and other patriotic groups who may cause destruction of bases, powerstations/substations, factories not only in the west of Yoma Mt., but also in the mainland MM east.

With local support it is almost impossible for the Burmese troops to sustain a long war. ARSA and others should do the actual fighting and some BD elements will clandestinely supply them light weapons good for guerrilla warfare. But, BD govt is not willing to start a Jihadi fire that may engulf the entire Chittagong region as well.
Anyway, I do not think a BD-MM war is on the card. The moment BD engages directly with MM troops, it will be castigated by all the big countries.

 

[Banglar Bir]

I think, outcome of a war is decided on the ground. An aimless BD-MM war is not what BD should seek. If it wants to fight it should seek the help of the locals, i.e the Rohingya ARSA and other patriotic groups who may cause destruction of bases, power stations/substations, factories not only in the west of Yoma Mt., but also in the mainland MM east.
With local support it is almost impossible for the Burmese troops to sustain a long war. ARSA and others should do the actual fighting and some BD elements will clandestinely supply them light weapons good for guerrilla warfare. But, BD govt is not willing to start a Jihadi fire that may engulf the entire Chittagong region as well.
Anyway, I do not think a BD-MM war is on the card. The moment BD engages directly with MM troops, it will be castigated by all the big countries.

So,eventually a repetition of 1971, is what you all are contemplating? In such a scenario,our hard earned and well deserved experiences could be immense assistance.

 

[bluesky]

So,eventually a repetition of 1971, is what you all are contemplating? In such a scenario,our hard earned and well deserved experiences could be immense assistance.

Elements in our military who are supposed to have already retired can certainly do some goods. However, when Hasina is talking about joint BD-MM military efforts against the ARSA, how it is possible to join ARSA with our retired elements through the civilian govt channel, whose ministers cannot talk even in one voice.

However, off the record, I have a gut feeling that our clandestine military commando assets have already been dispatched beyond the enemy line, who will prepare a solid ground there for an eventual conflict. They are supposed to act like locals, they speak their dialect and can survive without food for many days. They target bridges, culverts, power stations, small military camps (Chowki), MM Border Outposts, their supply lines, logistics warehouse etc. They will act only when they are ordered to do so.

Any country's military is only superficially under the civilian govt. when it is emergency. They have their own codes and way of doing things, which they may not ever report to the civil govt.

 

[Nabil365]

Elements in our military who are supposed to have already retired can certainly do some goods. However, when Hasina is talking about joint BD-MM military efforts against the ARSA, how it is possible to join ARSA with our retired elements through the civilian govt channel, whose ministers cannot talk even in one voice.

However, off the record, I have a gut feeling that our clandestine military commando assets have already been dispatched beyond the enemy line, who will prepare a solid ground there for an eventual conflict. They are supposed to act like locals, they speak their dialect and can survive without food for many days. They target bridges, culverts, power stations, small military camps (Chowki), MM Border Outposts, their supply lines, logistics warehouse etc. They will act only when they are ordered to do so.

Any country's military is only superficially under the civilian govt. when it is emergency. They have their own codes and way of doing things, which they may not ever report to the civil govt.

I have spoken of this about a hundred times already.Since 1990s Bangladesh has built a large pool of spies aiming at Myanmar.Most of these spies comes from races such as marma or chakma.It is a mystery still this day.

 

[Zabaniyah]

Exactly, this is the reason will not let China to become a super power like USA. Because China can never be liberal like west.
Ofcourse all westerns are not liberal and current us president is not a responsible person, but he doesn't represent the whole USA.

China officially supported the genocide and proved that if (God Forbid) China will replace USA as super power, the world will be in serious trouble.

I'm not certain if the Chinese want to have the burden of being a superpower. Let's look at a little history here. China barely vetoes UNSC resolutions. However, the case of Burma is quite surprising. But why?

I spoke a Burmese man I befriended long ago. We talked about politics and in the middle of the conversation, he explained how much he despised the Chinese by explaining that they wanted to make his country a client state. But he admitted that his country's military rulers fear China. They are just too powerful. See, the nature of the relationship to get a veto in your favor is that your liability is so deep that you can never truly hope to repay that burden.

The Chinese want resources at low cost and without hindrance.

This is not to say that we ditch China and go for the US. No. But we have to work with them for a long term solution to the problem.

True that BD needs to diversify.

I would disagree that Chinese arms are not top of the range. The latest J-10 fighters, frigates,
SAMs, tanks and submarines are comparable to anything BD can get from the West at much higher cost.

Yeah, let me know when China stops getting frustrated over creating an engine. Where are your Chinese friends by the way?

BD needs to source weapons from China, Russia, Turkey and Iran and then it can cover
both Myanmar and India.

You'd get into trouble for doing business with Iran.

I know that people are extremely angry at China for their support of Myanmar but BD needs
to be rational and realise that to help develop BD infrastructure, a huge source of BD exports, weapons technology and weapons imports at very cheap cost, it has no other replacement.

We have WB, IFC and literally thousands of financial institutions for low interest loans. I work at a bank dealing with trade loans, so I do know what I'm talking about. There's nothing special about Chinese loans. They are just....loans...it doesn't necessarily give us any distinct edge when it comes to national development.

Biggest source of export proceeds is Europe, not China (but they are a big supplier of fabrics and yarn). The biggest consumer market is the US which we aren't fully utilizing. China doesn't go nowhere near that level. On the weapons part, it may have some credibility, but what of the enemy? We don't know what they have been armed with or what they are planning to do.

We aren't that poor you know.

We are not China's client state, and never will be. And neither should we be that of India's. The price paid by the Myanmar citizen was a steep one.

You are British are you not? Why not use your power to raise your concern and help? It doesn't take a lot of money. Take the initiative, work with Bangladeshis be they businessmen or politicians (even if you may not personally like them) instead of letting a greedy snake do it for you. Let the ball keep bouncing.

It is a mystery still this day.

Better kept that way.

 

[UKBengali]

Yeah, let me know when China stops getting frustrated over creating an engine. Where are your Chinese friends by the way?

Well hundreds of Chinese warplanes are now flying with WS-10A powerplant.
In this forum, there is now a general consensus that the J-20 production planes are using an upgraded WS-10X engine. So looks like the Chinese are slowly getting there.
You know that the powerplant for the Z-10 attack helicopter is pure Chinese?

You'd get into trouble for doing business with Iran.

True that but I am thinking more in the long term up to 2030. Who knows what the situation may be in 5 years time.

We have WB, IFC and literally thousands of financial institutions for low interest loans. I work at a bank dealing with trade loans, so I do know what I'm talking about. There's nothing special about Chinese loans. They are just....loans...it doesn't necessarily give us any distinct edge when it comes to national development.

Biggest source of export proceeds is Europe, not China (but they are a big supplier of fabrics and yarn). The biggest consumer market is the US which we aren't fully utilizing. China doesn't go nowhere near that level. On the weapons part, it may have some credibility, but what of the enemy? We don't know what they have been armed with or what they are planning to do.

We aren't that poor you know.

We are not China's client state, and never will be. And neither should we be that of India's. The price paid by the Myanmar citizen was a steep one.

If it was that easy, then there would be no need to go to China would it then?
China has promised 24 billion US dollars of low interest loans. Some of the loans already agreed come with a 5 year grace period. Tell me which commercial bank would give BD those terms?
24 billion US dollars is the total tax intake for BD government for the whole year and so is not an insignigicant sum.

Who else apart from China is raising their imports from BD by 30% a year? From around 150 million US dollars in 2010, it is now around the 1 billion US dollar mark. In a decade it may hit 10 US billion dollars as long as BD does not become hostile to China. Developed markets like the US and EU are saturated and so only China can help BD exports rise in a big way. BD should not turn away from a soon to be(~10 years) developed market of 1.4 billion consumers.

BD is already getting ToT from China to manufacture small warships and SAMs such as the FN-16 manpad. There were reports a couple of months ago that BD will work in partnership with China to create a next-gen frigate. These are tangible technology transfers that China is providing BD that will help it eventually become self-sufficient or part sufficient in armaments. No other country can or will provide this currently.

You are British are you not? Why not use your power to raise your concern and help? It doesn't take a lot of money. Take the initiative, work with Bangladeshis be they businessmen or politicians (even if you may not personally like them) instead of letting a greedy snake do it for you. Let the ball keep bouncing.

UK is at the forefront of voicing it's condemnation about the genocidal Myanmarese at the UN. There is nothing much that can be done by the UK since it is BD itself that is the problem here.

By the laws of nature. BD should be inherently a more powerful country that Myanmar with a GDP of 3.5 times that of Myanmar.

Pathetic Hasina even refused to sit with BNP recently at some international forum(maybe UN) saying that BD has all the allies it needs anyway and won't sit with killers(BNP).

When Khaleda came into power she decomissioned the Bangabhandu frigate and tried to sell off the 8 Mig-29s saying they were not necessary for the defence of BD and too expensive, and she would buy more modern fighters. What did the half-wit Khaleda do? She brought F-7s from China at a time when Myanmar was buying squadron after squadron of Mig-29s armed with the deadly R-77.

I am sorry if anyone is offended but unless BD is serious about building a military that can dominate Myanmar, then we can expect the savages next door to eventually push all their Rohingya into BD.

Agreed. But from who should we source the weapons from? Can we trust the current suppliers? Even if we spend money on arms, it won't necessarily give us an edge against them.

For example, if we buy 8 MiG-35's (one of the very likely contenders in our combat aircraft tender), they'll buy twice as many. They are now interested in the MiG-35 as we speak. By the time the PAK-FA matures for mass production sometime in 2020-2025-ish timeline, they will undoubtedly be offered such.

BD has GDP 3.5x that of Myanmar. Even a slight increase in BD defence spending to 2% will mean that Myanmar will have to eat arms again to match BD.

It is ridiculous that BD is comparing itself to a tiny country ethnic-strife torn entity like Myanmar.

 

[Centaur]

04:23 PM, September 24, 2017 / LAST MODIFIED: 05:13 PM, September 24, 2017
In a sense, Myanmar declared war against Bangladesh by sending Rohingyas: Muhith

Finance Minister AMA Muhith. File photo
Star Online Report
Terming Rohingya refugee influx in Bangladesh a disaster, Finance Minister AMA Muhith today said that in a sense Myanmar has declared war against Bangladesh by sending the people.
“In a sense, Myanmar has declared war by sending the Rohingyas to Bangladesh. They are trying to jeopardise our economy by sending people from their country,” Muhith said.

The finance minister said this while talking to reporters after launching a health camp at a factory in Tongi of Gazipur, reports Bangla daily Prothom Alo.

“A disaster is taking place in the country at the moment. Here, over four lakhs of refugees have taken shelter from our neighbouring country Myanmar,” he said.

Our life has been shaken greatly by this, the finance minister added.

He demanded that the rights of the Rohingyas should be established in their own country.

“Myanmar should know this well that we will always try for establishing their rights as our prime minister is giving her effort in this regard,” he added.
http://www.thedailystar.net/world/r...ohingyas-says-finance-minister-muhith-1467040

Yes miyanmer maybe declared war or not but don't pay attention to this lunatic muhit ; as he is famous for his revolutionary speaches.
As there shall be no 1 taka,so you need to explain it as 20% of 5 taka,though he never explained how can you pay the price of gold leaf cigarret that was tk 6 that year.
And his another classical Idea about taxation, as if you have 1 lakh taka you are a rich man, as the old idiot still in the delusion that he is living in British period of subcontinent.

It's wise to ignore every words from this 85 years old imbecile
.