Could Myanmar and Bangladesh Go To War Over the Rohingya Crisis?

[Zabaniyah]

You should be following the J-20 threads more carefully in that case.

No less than international moderator @Deino is now convinced that J-20 flies with a WS-10X engine. For China to put an indigenous engine into it's brand new stealth fighter shows how confident they are in the reliability of the WS-10-series turbofans.

With J-20 in service now, China will have little reason to not export at least the J-10B to BD now. They have also developed a brand new AESA radar that is air-cooled and that will retrofit all J-10A/Bs with this. Chinese fighter aircraft are at least the equal of Russia now, while probably being slightly below what can be brought from US/EU - on the assumption that China will not release the latest J-10C that comes equipped with AESA and lots of 5th generation technologies like sensor fusion, stealth coatings etc that was developed for J-20.



Which commercial banks will lend billions of US dollars to BD at 2-2.5% interest over 20 years with 5 year grace period? Please advise government of BD in that case.

Paying back has little risk as BD's economy is growing at more than 7% a year and expected to keep this way for at least the next 5 years by all major organisations. Government debt as % of GDP has fallen from 39% 10 years ago to only 27% last year. BD has by far the lowest debt burden of any S Asian nation. True that BD has lower tax revenues that the others, but the tax take as a percentage of GDP is slowly going up in BD while being stagnant in other S Asian countries.

Deep sea port? BD cancelled Sonadia due to pressure from India, US and Japan. Despite my reservations about Awami League, BD had no choice and could not go against all 3 of those countries.

You call 24 billion US dollars of low interest loans with 5 year grace period throwing some loans? No other country will do this for BD. Even Japan cannot come close but it does offer much lower interest rates though.

Yes, BD could maybe double or triple what it sells to US but that is it.

China will become a 1.4 billion developed economy by around 2025, while the US will be 350 million people. For the mainly garments that BD sells, it will find 4 times as many consumers in China that can buy at the same price as the US. If BD plays it card right, then it can export many 10s of billions US to China by the 2030s.

China has a choice as to where it imports from. It would be easy to replace BD with other countries. For BD there is no other China on the horizon.



That is where BD starts to diversify. Turkey should be top of the list and maybe Iran if it comes to a lasting accomodation with the West.

China is becoming more and more advanced and in 10 years time, apart from maybe the US, you wont get anyone that can provide better military technology.

My point still stands in terms of technology transfer. BD can eventually use this knowledge that China is willingly supplying to build it's own weapons. Always best to stand on you own two feet.





Not really as Myamar already gets all it's weapons from China and Russia. It will make zero difference to Mynamar military capability.




BD has 1 million Rohingya now and I doubt that Myanmar will take them back as they have the full support of China and Russia. BD is led by a weak and frankly pathetic party and the other major one is not much better. BD should get as much money as possible from other countries and organisations like WB and build decent accommodation for them, including healthcare facilities, schools etc. They must not however under any circumstances be given BD citizenship, as that will just reward Myanmar for ethnic cleansing and make BD look even more pathetic than it is now.

Hopefully the physical presence of 1 million Rohingya and the many billlions US dollars that BD will ultimately have to spend to shelter and feed them will be the catalyst to the reorientation of BD politics to produce strong leaders that understand the need for a strong military to deal with the pesky Mynamarese once and for all.





Myanmar has no wish to invade any part of BD. It wants to cleanse the Rohingya to BD and that looks like it is working.[/QUOTE]

Good that you've been reading a plane they call 'stealth' just because it is painted black. And for what? All that effort to defend the Chinese contraptions for what? Where are your Chinese friends to defend your credibility? A friend is someone whom you can trust which isn't quite the case as I have waited for two weeks for their answer. But to no avail. Do they really appreciate you? Do they accept you?

And those 'loans' are slow to disburse due to excessive bureaucracy. So I wouldn't worry. Which is why private sector lenders are better and more efficient and transparent.

Surely we having so much military and economic relations with China, surely they could have supported our 'security and development' with regards to the Rohingya crisis.

They didn't support us during our independence, and they certainly didn't support us now despite our efforts for amicable relations towards China and support for their economic goals throughout the years. This is despite our laughable political environment. We are not an aggressive nation, nor are we interested in conquering other's territory, nor do we wish to interfere in other's affairs. China's language with regards to our security and economic interests were uncalled for and absolutely unacceptable to Bangladesh. Everyone, be it BNP, AL and commonerss and elites agrees with this.

So which will it be? A cheerleader or a power to make the China-man cower to your feet? I prefer the later. And yes, I agree that there's needs to be cataclysm in our politics. A bunch of impotents sit on my....I mean....our throne. And that'll take time.

There are many scenarios as to where our beloved continent of Asia will go. And in none of those scenarios will China come out on top. That is a promise.

 

[Banglar Bir]

Zabaniyah
ELITE MEMBER

A Bangladeshi? After reading most of your posts,I am a little confused about your real I.D along with your profession,you are indeed an expert analyst. Far to informed for a normal person.Trust me, I know for sure.Anyways many thanks for enriching this thread with your wise comments,wish there were more members like you and M B I Munshi, who prefers to remain silent these days.

 

[Zabaniyah]

Zabaniyah
ELITE MEMBER

A Bangladeshi? After reading most of your posts,I am a little confused about your real I.D along with your profession,you are indeed an expert analyst. Far to informed for a normal person.Trust me, I know for sure.Anyways many thanks for enriching this thread with your wise comments,wish there were more members like you and M B I Munshi, who prefers to remain silent these days.

I'm a Necromancer by profession.

 

[Banglar Bir]

Necromancy is a supposed practice of magic involving communication with the deceased – either by summoning their spirit as an apparition or raising them bodily – for the purpose of divination, imparting the means to foretell future events or discover hidden knowledge, to bring someone back from the dead, or to use the deceased as a weapon, as the term may sometimes be used in a more general sense to refer to black magic or witchcraft.

The word "necromancy" is adapted from Late Latin necromantia, itself borrowed from post-Classical Greek νεκρομαντεία (nekromanteía), a compound of Ancient Greek νεκρός (nekrós), "dead body", and μαντεία (manteía), "divination by means of"; this compound form was first used by Origen of Alexandria in the 3rd century AD.
The Classical Greek term was ἡ νέκυια (nekyia), from the episode of the Odyssey in which Odysseus visits the realm of the dead and νεκρομαντεία in Hellenistic Greek, rendered as necromantīa in Latin, and as necromancy in 17th-century English.

I'm a Necromancer by profession.

Haram as per Islamic jurisprudence.
Any second thoughts, as your English vocabulary is also far to enriched?

 

[bluesky]

As there shall be no 1 taka,so you need to explain it as 20% of 5 taka,though he never explained how can you pay the price of gold leaf cigarret that was tk 6 that year.

People already pay either 5 or 7 Taka instead of 6 when either party has no 1 Taka note.

 

[UKBengali]

Good that you've been reading a plane they call 'stealth' just because it is painted black. And for what? All that effort to defend the Chinese contraptions for what? Where are your Chinese friends to defend your credibility? A friend is someone whom you can trust which isn't quite the case as I have waited for two weeks for their answer. But to no avail. Do they really appreciate you? Do they accept you?

And those 'loans' are slow to disburse due to excessive bureaucracy. So I wouldn't worry. Which is why private sector lenders are better and more efficient and transparent.

Surely we having so much military and economic relations with China, surely they could have supported our 'security and development' with regards to the Rohingya crisis.

They didn't support us during our independence, and they certainly didn't support us now despite our efforts for amicable relations towards China and support for their economic goals throughout the years. This is despite our laughable political environment. We are not an aggressive nation, nor are we interested in conquering other's territory, nor do we wish to interfere in other's affairs. China's language with regards to our security and economic interests were uncalled for and absolutely unacceptable to Bangladesh. Everyone, be it BNP, AL and commonerss and elites agrees with this.

So which will it be? A cheerleader or a power to make the China-man cower to your feet? I prefer the later. And yes, I agree that there's needs to be cataclysm in our politics. A bunch of impotents sit on my....I mean....our throne. And that'll take time.

There are many scenarios as to where our beloved continent of Asia will go. And in none of those scenarios will China come out on top. That is a promise.

It does not matter what China's stance is here. They are doing this for their economic interests in BD and not out of any wish to harm BD.

What is the real problem is BD's internal political environment. If BD was a strong country then Myanmar would not dare have tried this stunt.

Why has BD not built an airforce far more powerful than a country that is 30% as rich?

Why is BD bootlicking an India that has nothing tangible to offer BD either economically or militarily?

Why has BD not devoted more efforts to building close links with Muslim countries like Turkey that have a lot to offer it?

We can all blame Awami League here but they are the product of the messed up politics in BD. They came into power since the BNP were such useless turds. Look at that half-wit Khaleda. Who in their right mind think she is anywhere near suitable to lead BD?

Blaming China is all very well but unless BD changes itself then it will not live up to anywhere near it's full potential.
Like I have said before, use China for it's growing and huge market(BD exports have been rising 30% a year on average since 2010 and are now around 1 billion US dollars), take it's 10s of billions of dollars of loans at low rates of interest, import large quantities of relatively cheap arms from it in order to deter India over the long-run, and carry on with the close relationship in the military technology domain that is now seeing the Chinese FN-16 Man-portable SAM being made in BD.

Without China, I cannot see how BD can really hope to get rid of those Indian turds. The West is too far away and does not see India as an adversary like China does. By keeping on good terms with China, then BD can try to use Chinese power to reduce and eventually eliminate India from the BD political scene. Indian economy is in trouble and Chinese one is still going strong and that should indicate to us how the power divergence between India and China just keeps widening.

If we look forward to the year 2030, them I forsee US, EU(+UK), China, Russia, Japan and Turkey as being the most important countries to it economically, politically and militarily. BD should try to keep on good terms with all of them.

 

[Zabaniyah]

It does not matter what China's stance is here. They are doing this for their economic interests in BD and not out of any wish to harm BD.

Economic interests at the cost of human lives for which the cost Bangladesh has to bear? Is this acceptable? How about the fact the UN knew well before the ARSA attacks that an impending doom was unfolding. The Chinese knew about this but did nothing. We have issues, definitely, but this is not acceptable.

What is the real problem is BD's internal political environment. If BD was a strong country then Myanmar would not dare have tried this stunt.

Why has BD not built an airforce far more powerful than a country that is 30% as rich?

Why is BD bootlicking an India that has nothing tangible to offer BD either economically or militarily?

Why has BD not devoted more efforts to building close links with Muslim countries like Turkey that have a lot to offer it?

Surely, if BD had a strong military, no one would have dared to go aggressive against us. I guess we are not a militaristic society. The Indians would have wanted it that way. They are fearful and perhaps ignorant should Bangladesh be able to pack a punch.

Air force is an expensive matter. I've heard that BAF really, really wants the SU-30SME or the SU-35. But they are too costly. The Russians being the only party able to fulfill the tender floated. $60 million a pop for the SME's. Modest, but not cheap either.

To tell you the truth about our military, it is...scary. The Pilkhana proved something very frightening. The warriors of old say that any militarist able to strike and kill a nation's top military officers from a thousand miles away without raising a blade is what we call true skill. I would not have said this had it been a riot or some sort. But no, that mutiny was a highly organized operation lead by a truly skilled militarist. Or maybe, they just got lucky. There can be no weak links in any military. A good general has to work such that the military is to function as one mind. But this wasn't the case with our military.

I do not know about now, but things aren't particularly great. Their morale is low. It is not just a question of a lack of advanced weaponry. Conflict between ranks is very dangerous that the enemy can take advantage over.

Turkey is cool. But with Saudi, I don't have anything nice to say about it. At least as long as the Sauds are in power.

As far as your question regarding the Chinese loan goes, such G2G issues are handled by the Ministry of Finance. All banks in Bangladesh work and report directly to Bangladesh Bank. If I were to advise the MoF, I would tell them get things done. There's so much bureaucracy that things hardly get done. But even a bank's MD advising them such would be suicidal for his career. The government employees are complacent and yet claim bonuses (which shouldn't happen). Bonuses are a result of a company's profit, not state institutions. This is one way for Hasina to get more votes for her party. Taxes are rising. The lack of collaboration between banks and government agencies is apparent. The State-owned banks are a different case however (BCS cadres, ha!).

It comes to no surprise that the Chinese loan is facing a similar fate.
http://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/big-promises-little-progress-1476151

Bureaucracy! Which is why I say commercial credit are usually more effective that get things done. And yet, no different from any other loan.

We can all blame Awami League here but they are the product of the messed up politics in BD. They came into power since the BNP were such useless turds. Look at that half-wit Khaleda. Who in their right mind think she is anywhere near suitable to lead BD?

The biggest blunder the BNP made was to boycott the elections. Along with appointing the traitor, Moeen as army chief.

Blaming China is all very well but unless BD changes itself then it will not live up to anywhere near it's full potential.
Like I have said before, use China for it's growing and huge market(BD exports have been rising 30% a year on average since 2010 and are now around 1 billion US dollars), take it's 10s of billions of dollars of loans at low rates of interest, import large quantities of relatively cheap arms from it in order to deter India over the long-run, and carry on with the close relationship in the military technology domain that is now seeing the Chinese FN-16 Man-portable SAM being made in BD.

Without China, I cannot see how BD can really hope to get rid of those Indian turds. The West is too far away and does not see India as an adversary like China does. By keeping on good terms with China, then BD can try to use Chinese power to reduce and eventually eliminate India from the BD political scene. Indian economy is in trouble and Chinese one is still going strong and that should indicate to us how the power divergence between India and China just keeps widening.

Whatever happens between India and China is between them only. The only reason China supplies us with weapons is because of money. It is not necessarily a strategic one. If it really is strategic from the Chinese POV, then they are doing terrible! lol...

I have come to think, and seeing from the opinions of some of the more enlightened Chinese folks is that the Chinese are too busy making money. Latest trends suggest that their economy had been sluggish of late since 2008, but we can't come to a conclusion due to lack of reliable data. Now that may explain their position on Burma. The Russian economy is even worse off. Though, Russia's stance is more subtle unlike that of China's which suggest serious stakes in Burma. It is very....un-Chinese-like...an angry and aggressive Chinaman...phew phew...

If we look forward to the year 2030, them I forsee US, EU(+UK), China, Russia, Japan and Turkey as being the most important countries to it economically, politically and militarily. BD should try to keep on good terms with all of them.

Yeah, friend of everyone and enemy of none. We have had that policy for years and to what result? People create problems. And when I see refugees pouring from the border, I see problems.

See, it is getting things done that serves a purpose. We all have a purpose. And the ability to influence others is what we call power.

You say China is defending its interests in Burma but not at the cost of Bangladesh and yet it is at the cost of our beloved country. See, when a person does things that is unorthodox, it becomes orthodox over time. Let's say that China's economic 'interests' stretches to Central Asia (parts of the region where trouble is abound) or Africa. One day, and day after day, people will be killed by some maniac while the great Chinaman defends his 'interests' in the UNSC. If we are to have a conscience, we are to say 'No'. Yes, we are little, but the point is a big no, no.

Now I know the US and it's NATO allies weren't perfect. But you don't see them blocking food and aid supplies to civilians during the heat of battle in Fallujah, Iraq. The savages with local help across the border blocked aid to the Rohingya villages and that explains why they are flocking to Bangladesh. They are hungry, injured, sick and weak with half of them being children. Yes, angry nationalist civilians blocked aid to them. Imagine this scenario in Central Asia or somewhere in Africa in the future.

Now tell me my British-Bangladesh friend, is that what you want for the future?

 

[Centaur]

People already pay either 5 or 7 Taka instead of 6 when either party has no 1 Taka note.

But what if there is no 2 taka too as muhit declared? Peoples have to pay 10 taka instead of 6 . Does that make sense?

 

[Flynn Swagmire]

Economic interests at the cost of human lives for which the cost Bangladesh has to bear? Is this acceptable? How about the fact the UN knew well before the ARSA attacks that an impending doom was unfolding. The Chinese knew about this but did nothing. We have issues, definitely, but this is not acceptable.



Surely, if BD had a strong military, no one would have dared to go aggressive against us. I guess we are not a militaristic society. The Indians would have wanted it that way. They are fearful and perhaps ignorant should Bangladesh be able to pack a punch.

Air force is an expensive matter. I've heard that BAF really, really wants the SU-30SME or the SU-35. But they are too costly. The Russians being the only party able to fulfill the tender floated. $60 million a pop for the SME's. Modest, but not cheap either.

To tell you the truth about our military, it is...scary. The Pilkhana proved something very frightening. The warriors of old say that any militarist able to strike and kill a nation's top military officers from a thousand miles away without raising a blade is what we call true skill. I would not have said this had it been a riot or some sort. But no, that mutiny was a highly organized operation lead by a truly skilled militarist. Or maybe, they just got lucky. There can be no weak links in any military. A good general has to work such that the military is to function as one mind. But this wasn't the case with our military.

I do not know about now, but things aren't particularly great. Their morale is low. It is not just a question of a lack of advanced weaponry. Conflict between ranks is very dangerous that the enemy can take advantage over.

Turkey is cool. But with Saudi, I don't have anything nice to say about it. At least as long as the Sauds are in power.

As far as your question regarding the Chinese loan goes, such G2G issues are handled by the Ministry of Finance. All banks in Bangladesh work and report directly to Bangladesh Bank. If I were to advise the MoF, I would tell them get things done. There's so much bureaucracy that things hardly get done. But even a bank's MD advising them such would be suicidal for his career. The government employees are complacent and yet claim bonuses (which shouldn't happen). Bonuses are a result of a company's profit, not state institutions. This is one way for Hasina to get more votes for her party. Taxes are rising. The lack of collaboration between banks and government agencies is apparent. The State-owned banks are a different case however (BCS cadres, ha!).

It comes to no surprise that the Chinese loan is facing a similar fate.
http://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/big-promises-little-progress-1476151

Bureaucracy! Which is why I say commercial credit are usually more effective that get things done. And yet, no different from any other loan.



The biggest blunder the BNP made was to boycott the elections. Along with appointing the traitor, Moeen as army chief.


Whatever happens between India and China is between them only. The only reason China supplies us with weapons is because of money. It is not necessarily a strategic one. If it really is strategic from the Chinese POV, then they are doing terrible! lol...

I have come to think, and seeing from the opinions of some of the more enlightened Chinese folks is that the Chinese are too busy making money. Latest trends suggest that their economy had been sluggish of late since 2008, but we can't come to a conclusion due to lack of reliable data. Now that may explain their position on Burma. The Russian economy is even worse off. Though, Russia's stance is more subtle unlike that of China's which suggest serious stakes in Burma. It is very....un-Chinese-like...an angry and aggressive Chinaman...phew phew...



Yeah, friend of everyone and enemy of none. We have had that policy for years and to what result? People create problems. And when I see refugees pouring from the border, I see problems.

See, it is getting things done that serves a purpose. We all have a purpose. And the ability to influence others is what we call power.

You say China is defending its interests in Burma but not at the cost of Bangladesh and yet it is at the cost of our beloved country. See, when a person does things that is unorthodox, it becomes orthodox over time. Let's say that China's economic 'interests' stretches to Central Asia (parts of the region where trouble is abound) or Africa. One day, and day after day, people will be killed by some maniac while the great Chinaman defends his 'interests' in the UNSC. If we are to have a conscience, we are to say 'No'. Yes, we are little, but the point is a big no, no.

Now I know the US and it's NATO allies weren't perfect. But you don't see them blocking food and aid supplies to civilians during the heat of battle in Fallujah, Iraq. The savages with local help across the border blocked aid to the Rohingya villages and that explains why they are flocking to Bangladesh. They are hungry, injured, sick and weak with half of them being children. Yes, angry nationalist civilians blocked aid to them. Imagine this scenario in Central Asia or somewhere in Africa in the future.

Now tell me my British-Bangladesh friend, is that what you want for the future?

Bro, what do you suggest?

 

[UKBengali]

Economic interests at the cost of human lives for which the cost Bangladesh has to bear? Is this acceptable? How about the fact the UN knew well before the ARSA attacks that an impending doom was unfolding. The Chinese knew about this but did nothing. We have issues, definitely, but this is not acceptable.

China's stance is very disappointing for sure.

However, we need to look at it from their perspective. They are the only country that has any chance of challenging the dominance of the US and feel that they somehow need to be on Myanmar's good books in order to stop the US attempts to stop their rise. I personally believe that they are being mistaken in their support of Myanmar for two reasons. The first is that a lot of countries are taking note of their actions and now think that they are no better than the US and so will adjust their attitude towards China accordingly. Also, the Myanmarese cannot really afford to break with China as the whole point of the oil and gas pipeplines is that it goes through Myanmar to feed the Chinese economy!

Surely, if BD had a strong military, no one would have dared to go aggressive against us. I guess we are not a militaristic society. The Indians would have wanted it that way. They are fearful and perhaps ignorant should Bangladesh be able to pack a punch.

Air force is an expensive matter. I've heard that BAF really, really wants the SU-30SME or the SU-35. But they are too costly. The Russians being the only party able to fulfill the tender floated. $60 million a pop for the SME's. Modest, but not cheap either.

Actually 60 million US dollars for a fighter like SU-30SME is not really that expensive when you consider that Rafale and Eurofighter come in at nearly 100 million US dollars each. BD should not delay and order the 8+4(options) before the end of this year for delivery in 2019.

BD is lucky that Myanmar has the much less advanced Mig-29(does not even have a modern radar after recent upgrade lol) and 16 JF-17s that will come online by next year. So the 12 Su-30SMEs and the 8 Mig-29s(when upgraded) should be enough to face off MAF.

To tell you the truth about our military, it is...scary. The Pilkhana proved something very frightening. The warriors of old say that any militarist able to strike and kill a nation's top military officers from a thousand miles away without raising a blade is what we call true skill. I would not have said this had it been a riot or some sort. But no, that mutiny was a highly organized operation lead by a truly skilled militarist. Or maybe, they just got lucky. There can be no weak links in any military. A good general has to work such that the military is to function as one mind. But this wasn't the case with our military.

I do not know about now, but things aren't particularly great. Their morale is low. It is not just a question of a lack of advanced weaponry. Conflict between ranks is very dangerous that the enemy can take advantage over.

And why was Pilkhana allowed to even happen?
It is because BD people are stupid and do not realise Indian designs in South Asia. Too many Indians have been allowed into the BD economy and other areas that they had a base with to carry out this act.
I have little hope that the current Awami League under Hasina will do much to reduce this nefarious Indian presence in BD, but the sight of Modi visiting and publicly defending the savages next door should have opened the eyes of the BD masses to India's real character.

Turkey is cool. But with Saudi, I don't have anything nice to say about it. At least as long as the Sauds are in power.

Agreed but add in Iran if they come to an agreement with the West. Not only does Iran have military technology that BD can buy but also immense oil and gas reserves.

As far as your question regarding the Chinese loan goes, such G2G issues are handled by the Ministry of Finance. All banks in Bangladesh work and report directly to Bangladesh Bank. If I were to advise the MoF, I would tell them get things done. There's so much bureaucracy that things hardly get done. But even a bank's MD advising them such would be suicidal for his career. The government employees are complacent and yet claim bonuses (which shouldn't happen). Bonuses are a result of a company's profit, not state institutions. This is one way for Hasina to get more votes for her party. Taxes are rising. The lack of collaboration between banks and government agencies is apparent. The State-owned banks are a different case however (BCS cadres, ha!).

It comes to no surprise that the Chinese loan is facing a similar fate.
http://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/big-promises-little-progress-1476151

Bureaucracy! Which is why I say commercial credit are usually more effective that get things done. And yet, no different from any other loan.

As per your link, BD government has stated that agreement of 6.8 billion dollars has been finalised and the financial loan deals will all be signed before the end of this year. So nearly 7 billion dollars within 1 year of the promise made is not that bad.

We need to remember that BD government revenue is only 10-11% of GDP and the IMF has forecast this month that it does not expect this to rise in the next 5 years.

The biggest blunder the BNP made was to boycott the elections. Along with appointing the traitor, Moeen as army chief.

Agreed that it was a blunder in hindsight not to contest the elections.

Whatever happens between India and China is between them only. The only reason China supplies us with weapons is because of money. It is not necessarily a strategic one. If it really is strategic from the Chinese POV, then they are doing terrible! lol...

Are you sure about that? There are numerous reports that China offered BD a 1 billion US dollar loan to buy Chinese military equipment to counter the Indian offer of 500 million dollars to buy military equipment from India(lol as if India can produce anything that BD military would want). The equipment list seems to be one of China practically selling at production cost - 16 J-10B fighters, 1 KJ-200 AWACS, 1 Y-20 transport and 7 K-8 trainers. BD would be mad to turn down this hardware for the price and on a soft loan basis as well!

I have come to think, and seeing from the opinions of some of the more enlightened Chinese folks is that the Chinese are too busy making money. Latest trends suggest that their economy had been sluggish of late since 2008, but we can't come to a conclusion due to lack of reliable data. Now that may explain their position on Burma. The Russian economy is even worse off. Though, Russia's stance is more subtle unlike that of China's which suggest serious stakes in Burma. It is very....un-Chinese-like...an angry and aggressive Chinaman...phew phew...

China's economy cannot keep growing at 10% a year average as it did between 1980-2010 and so has slowed down now to a more sustainable 6-7% a year. This is still high for a country that is firmly in the "middle-income" category now.

Yeah, friend of everyone and enemy of none. We have had that policy for years and to what result? People create problems. And when I see refugees pouring from the border, I see problems.

See, it is getting things done that serves a purpose. We all have a purpose. And the ability to influence others is what we call power.

BD needs to adjust it's policy to see India as an enemy of BD. I am not saying be hostile to India as that would not be sensible, but have a plan to reduce and eventually eliminate all Indian influence in BD and that can be helped by being close to the Chinese.

 

[Zabaniyah]

China's stance is very disappointing for sure.

However, we need to look at it from their perspective. They are the only country that has any chance of challenging the dominance of the US and feel that they somehow need to be on Myanmar's good books in order to stop the US attempts to stop their rise. I personally believe that they are being mistaken in their support of Myanmar for two reasons. The first is that a lot of countries are taking note of their actions and now think that they are no better than the US and so will adjust their attitude towards China accordingly. Also, the Myanmarese cannot really afford to break with China as the whole point of the oil and gas pipeplines is that it goes through Myanmar to feed the Chinese economy!

Actually 60 million US dollars for a fighter like SU-30SME is not really that expensive when you consider that Rafale and Eurofighter come in at nearly 100 million US dollars each. BD should not delay and order the 8+4(options) before the end of this year for delivery in 2019.

BD is lucky that Myanmar has the much less advanced Mig-29(does not even have a modern radar after recent upgrade lol) and 16 JF-17s that will come online by next year. So the 12 Su-30SMEs and the 8 Mig-29s(when upgraded) should be enough to face off MAF.

And why was Pilkhana allowed to even happen?
It is because BD people are stupid and do not realise Indian designs in South Asia. Too many Indians have been allowed into the BD economy and other areas that they had a base with to carry out this act.
I have little hope that the current Awami League under Hasina will do much to reduce this nefarious Indian presence in BD, but the sight of Modi visiting and publicly defending the savages next door should have opened the eyes of the BD masses to India's real character.

Agreed but add in Iran if they come to an agreement with the West. Not only does Iran have military technology that BD can buy but also immense oil and gas reserves.

As per your link, BD government has stated that agreement of 6.8 billion dollars has been finalised and the financial loan deals will all be signed before the end of this year. So nearly 7 billion dollars within 1 year of the promise made is not that bad.

We need to remember that BD government revenue is only 10-11% of GDP and the IMF has forecast this month that it does not expect this to rise in the next 5 years.

Agreed that it was a blunder in hindsight not to contest the elections.

Are you sure about that? There are numerous reports that China offered BD a 1 billion US dollar loan to buy Chinese military equipment to counter the Indian offer of 500 million dollars to buy military equipment from India(lol as if India can produce anything that BD military would want). The equipment list seems to be one of China practically selling at production cost - 16 J-10B fighters, 1 KJ-200 AWACS, 1 Y-20 transport and 7 K-8 trainers. BD would be mad to turn down this hardware for the price and on a soft loan basis as well!

China's economy cannot keep growing at 10% a year average as it did between 1980-2010 and so has slowed down now to a more sustainable 6-7% a year. This is still high for a country that is firmly in the "middle-income" category now.

BD needs to adjust it's policy to see India as an enemy of BD. I am not saying be hostile to India as that would not be sensible, but have a plan to reduce and eventually eliminate all Indian influence in BD and that can be helped by being close to the Chinese.

Bro, what do you suggest?

What should be clear is that whatever Bangladesh was, had lost to India. The secrets of the military had run down to the seas with the blood of their slain military officers. The foreign policy was fine and well balanced. The procurement of Chinese hardware did the job of containing Indian schemes. The approach of putting our feet on multiple powers to secure our interests worked. The 'look East' policy was a logical step while we know little about their ways. But just not anymore. Ignorance and the habit of taking things for granted has its expiry date. That the date had come.

What did those army officers do to deserve such a terrible fate? I wouldn't say they trained Assamese separatists or that they fought along side them, no. But the possibility frightened them very much. I have heard that those officers opposed the transit that will run through Bangladesh, and that they strongly suggested our civilian leadership against the proposition. It is a bit like an anti-thesis to China's OBOR. The Indians were, and still are long dreaming about their own road. That possibility of Bangladesh being under China's wing drove them mad. The AL leaders were angry about being imprisoned during the military-backed caretaker government, and something they would never want to go through. We know what happened next. Talk about alignment of interests. All out of anger and fear.

It is not that Bangladeshi general populace are stupid. They just that they weren't prepared to imagine such events events unfold. Let alone comprehend them. They were not gritty, not militaristic and far, far from being disciplined. But yes, the younger generation are now seeing seeing the picture now as far as India is concerned. But what can they do? Post angry comments on Facebook? Overthrow the party? What events will further unfold? Will the Indians intervene to save the regime?

I would tell them that their anger is what makes them sloppy. The Indians with that kind of attitude will never beat China's more 'hey let's do business even if we don't agree with politics' kind of attitude. It is an idea and approach that is bound to fail. On the other hand, the only alliance that Bangladesh has now is with India. The US expressed its support (again) for India as a rising power of Asia during Secretary Tillerson's visit to New Delhi despite their differences over North Korea and Iran. In his opinion, India is to be a beacon of democracy and freedom that extends well beyond China's authoritarian rule. It is an idea that serves as an anti-thesis of the idea of authoritarian rule. Again, this approach is going to fail due to their attitude. The presence of the Rohingyas is a threat to the AL's long-term foothold on power. They are already riding a tiger that is trying to devour them. And they are going to make sure that it stays that way, and that there are no more unnecessary dissent propping up which is why the Rohingyas must return to where they came from. Again, alignment of interests. But what will be the result remains to be seen.

The Tatmaydaw's crackdown on the Rohingyas has nothing to do with anti-Muslim sentiment. It is all propaganda. There are refugees with documentation that show that they have ownership of the land they lived on back in Rakhine. If, when or should they return, they will likely find those lands to be under government control. This was about the land they were living on all along. Now, it should all add up. Not so 'non-interventionist' as they say they are. But why after so many years I wonder? I wonder how many other countries are bankrolling on this. I have heard that the Saudis have built an oil pipeline in Rakhine. Which are those corporations? Who are their shareholders? And who are the persons directing and endorsing such activities? Land ownership is a big and bloody issue in Burma. These must be examined because this had proven to be a threat to our national security.

The thing about far easterners is that nothing is as they appear to be. They like to portray themselves as misunderstood, and yet does not want to be understood at the same time. This is one of the reasons why they do well in business and the reason why the West were never truly able to exploit them. Just hard work is not enough. I would really recommend some good books about their culture, particularly with regards to martial arts and how that determines their culture, their life and their Way. They are not a complex society like South Asians. They are largely collective societies.

I don't know about the Chinese hardware. I am not aware of any tender. If I remember correctly, the air force prefers twin-engine aircraft over single-engine ones, and there is a tender for that. Maybe the Chinese one has a separate tender. For all I know, there are going to be a lot of Russian inventory coming including the T-90 and the Mi-28. USD 60 million is reasonable for a heavy fighter.

In my opinion, Bangladesh must be very calculative. With or without the AL. No, without the AL is fine. We are a democracy where all Bangladeshis can live in peace and security in a secular state. And never again can any fool be allowed to take away that path, that dream to liberty, sovereignty and justice which we fought for in 71'. Now the question is, are the Indians willing to let go of their stubbornness and actually allow democracy to get a foothold in Bangladesh? And let the young Bangladeshis determine their future? With security interests aligned with India, and that idea of freedom and democracy taking a hold against authoritarianism, I believe that the approach will work. It is easier. Cultural commonality, language, geography, etc. We don't need Chinese money to build roads and bridges. We can do those ourselves. Money is not a problem. All we just need is the knowledge and the technologies.

 

[Flynn Swagmire]

All we just need is the knowledge and the technologies.

And we are fuked up in these...

 

[Banglar Bir]

 

[BDforever]

is that your voice bro ?

 

[Nilgiri]

Now the question is, are the Indians willing to let go of their stubbornness and actually allow democracy to get a foothold in Bangladesh? And let the young Bangladeshis determine their future?

You have to illustrate you want it and fight hard and smart. BD people talk the talk a lot, but they don't walk the walk so much of the time.

As long as you are willing to be trodden on for short term perceived gains in a status quo, guess what's going to keep happening.

There are a myriad and multitude of ways for the BD masses to conduct a full scale revolution and establish whatever more perfect form of democracy they want...but they haven't even really started the undercurrents needed for that in future. This suggests to me, BD people priorities lie elsewhere. You may not like it, but thats how it is.

Maybe it will change down the road too as a bigger middle class develops (and growth comes from said middle class vertical integration in production chains which need adequately transparent politics to be competitive) and people feel genuinely suffocated. Right now there is little mass pressure from the paddy fields ---> RMG (+harness the buffers from that for other goods + services production) model....because poor farming types are simply thankful for the somewhat higher (and more stable) income compared to before that this guarantees in short to mid term....and dont really have the time (or money) to gamble in an up-rise and risk throwing it all away. Potentially losing the LDC status and the RMG quotas in Europe could give the shake-up that BD politically needs.

But it all needs to come from within, no one outside you is going to give you a free ride and benefit of the doubt etc. They will exploit you and push their own interests and agenda as much as you allow them to with what was afforded to them by history, culture etc.