Thank you for your (insider) input, friend.
Let me be one of the first to appreciate your volunteering for such a cause. This require much courage in an individual which is not common.
And yes, this is a wake-up call for all those who think that GOP have done a splendid job in containing the threat. Fact of the matter is, GOP was only delaying the inevitable, and now the country is in the Free-for-All ride phase.
All those who look at the official COVID-19 statistics of developing countries, and heap praise on respective governments - please wake the hell up. Levels of transparency are not the same around the world (OECD countries do have much higher level of transparency in comparison to others however).
Nevertheless, true statistics of the COVID-19 pandemic will not be known until years from now.
Allah Almighty have mercy on us all, Ameen.
Pakistan is in dire need of learning discipline and function like a true QOM.
Unity; Faith; Discipline.
When WE will learn...
Excellent post and Pakistan didn't have to sacrifice thousands of people to bring the rate of infection down , but this has hapened because of clueless govt, the rate is increasing because of the govt, if the proper lockdown had been implemented which as i have already stated vaporized after two weaks, Pakistan would have brough the rate down already without sacrificing so many lives.
The govt probably as usual thought that instead of planning and controlling, enforcing anything, which they are not capable of, why not just let the ''flu'' happen and we would deal with it at a later date when it really becomes a headache and there is no other option but to deal with it.
regards
Bro I don't want to be offensive but I can guess from your post that you have a very superficial understanding of Ro. Firstly you never considered the population spread and concentration dynamics of the countries you quoted which is a major contributor of Ro, which is vastly different from Pakistan.
To get the basics Lockdown is one of the aspect of Ro, it subdues it and flattens the curve but it dosnt eliminate it, if is not coupled with aggressive testing and isolation at an early stage if will bounce backup after the isolation period is over to its formal level. Now the only countries that have implemented it successfully which share some of the population characteristics with Pakistan are China, South Korea, Australia, Israel to say the least. Pakistan is not one of these countries its obvious, it is a failure because of limiting testing on gov part, no 3rd world country had this capacity in the beginning to be fair neither did India and Bangladesh were successful. 2nd difference in regard to these countries is their highly disciplined population which played a major role.
Now coming on to the rest of the countries with similar population dynamics both western and south asian. Another contributor comes its play which is varying degree of immunity in population. They have developed this by going through very harsh phase of pandemic. The actual number of cases and the immunity attained is far higher than their stats show as they barely !managed to test 5-10% of their population. Here is a study from Germany for reference,
This coupled with limited lockdown and disciplined population, they are now at roughly Ro of 1-2.
Pakistan is going through that rough phase and is at the peak point now which is estimated to be between 1st and 15th. Don't let the official numbers fool you there are hundreds of thousands of cases in Pakistan and the people with immunity are considerably higher. At the end of peak we will have lower Ro, and will be roughly in a situation which UK, France,Italy,Spain are now in. Given the % age grouping in our population our mortality hopefully will be lower.
Now coming to lockdown the lockdown the government did even if fully implemented would not have helped much apart from buy us some time as in the optimal widow we failed to conduct the required amount testing and isolation given our population, as explained earlier. That's what we are seeing.
Now with a lockdown with this critical mass if implemented will slow down the effect and spread it over time, the benefit will less strain on healthcare with lower mortality. Achieving lower Ro.
Again I will repeat lockdown alone dosnt eliminate corona, but lowers the curve. Hope this will help you understand the perspective I am trying to explain.
