Containment of China - Indian Ocean theatre

[dadeechi]

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[prabakar]

Its natural for for every economic powers to project power across oceans to serve its maritime goals and protect shipping lanes....At same time regional countries like India should always keep an eye on them to protect her own Interests in the region.....It happens always not new for India

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

2) China=> Pakistan=> Indian Ocean

US has comprehensive package to move away from China's CPEC which included Nuclear deal, Military aid and building up of conventional military capability.

So far Pakistan has been shunning US' offer and proceeding with China's offer on CPEC.

This is very alive and kicking.

Even if US offers its whole defense budget to us, we will not leave Chinese camp and will complete CPEC by hook or crook. This bond has faced many difficult times but survived successfully. Our relationship with China is special, very very special.

 

[dadeechi]

The strategic importance of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), providing major sea routes for world commerce, connecting East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa, with Europe and Americas is growing day by day. In this region, the interests and influence of China, India, and the United States are beginning to overlap and intersect and that therefore the IOR is bound to become a centre of 21st century international conflicts and power dynamics.

India-US defence pacts together with naval exercises with Japan and Australia are seen by many analysts as a subtle move to jointly contain China's growing militarism, especially in the strategic Indian Ocean Region.

India and the US have Inked of several defence agreements, to augment bilateral strategic ties for mutual benefit. The overarching protocol, in this vast area of likely cooperation, is the 10-year Defence Framework Agreement.

Analysts view this pact as a subtle move to jointly contain China's growing militarism, especially in the strategic Indian Ocean Region. Japan and Australia too are a part of this growing quadrilateral anxious to limit Beijing's hegemonistic ambitions.

However, it must be noted that no single or regional power including Russia, China, Australia and India, can control the Indian Ocean by itself in the future. After jostling among powers, a fragile balance of power might be reached in the region.

But all said, China is alone against the might of powerful 'allied' navies in the IOR and thus at a considerable disadvantage. The skewed combat ratio precludes it from any kind of domination of the IOR now or in the future.

Chinese power projection is increasing rapidly. On one hand it's building subs and surfaces ships at break neck speed while building up ports and infrastructure all around IOR (Myanmar, SriLanka, Bangladesh, Maldives and Pakistan)

 

[pakistani342]

My 2 cents [my knowledge of China and Iran is limited so take it for what it is worth]

A. The US-Iran relationships will not see any long term change -- the simple reason is that Iran is an exporter of it's ideology and will always target Israel (a close American Ally) -- Netanyahu is right -- once the frozen billions are freed, it will only swell the coffers of Iran's proxies. The Mullah regime in Iran is an extremely oppressive regime

B. Further the financial/trade interdependence of the US on China is not going away anytime soon [perhaps not for another 20/30 years] -- we in the US have major challenges which will keep us occupied

C. Further the West has ISIS as a priority right now -- how long the ISIS tumor will remain malignant is anybody's guess, 2 years, 5 years 10 years, 20 years ??

D. It remains to be seen if Pakistan will be able to capitalize on CPEC -- Pakistan has no experience executing a project of this magnitude and has a corrupt bureaucracy, low human development indexes, an out of control spending on defense -- despite increased Chinese FDI inflows, the overall FDI inflows have remained flat. Pakistan has potential but so too are its challenges

As I said earlier, the game is between US & China. India is just a pawn like many other countries in the region.



Yes. I think US-Iran relations are going to transform. The key country here is Pakistan. That is one of the reasons why China says that Pakistan is China's Israel meaning it would go to any lengths to protect the CPEC route through Pakistan as that is the most viable one.

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[PaklovesTurkiye]

Removing of sanctions on Iran is a game changer. Iran will counterbalance pakistan and strive for greater impact on Islamic world. US will not care what happens in ME if Israel is not touched. The theatre is now china and surrounding areas.

One of the reasons why US is a major power is bcos of stability @home with no threat and lot of allies. Chinese are hell bent on making enemies near home. Other than Russia who provide passive support China is all alone.

The current situation resembles the one before WW1 when germany raced to build berlin-baghdad railway line. CPEC resembles the same.

Iran can never counterbalance Pakistan. With their superiority complex, sectarian mindset and fu**ing with Arabs, it can just hold its ground on some sectarian Shia organization and countries. We all know Muslim world comprises of Sunni majority. Arabs, comprises of 30-40% of Muslim world don't like Iran, Turkey another very very important Muslim power don't like Iran at all and both have problems with each other. Pakistan is the only Sunni majority country in world who has soft corner for Iran but a lot of people over here don't like Iran at all but despise it due to its sectarian policies. You need to have soft power to build your image not by supporting proxies in Arab world. Pakistan, on the contrary, always enjoy support among Arabs, and always have played role in ME conflicts. Arabs will choose Pakistan over Iran any time. Pakistan enjoys support in African Muslim countries and as far as Turkey is concerned, a very important power in Muslim world, you all know very well how Pakistanis love Turks and Turks love us. A very special bond that can never be broken.

Pakistan is undisputed leader of Muslim world along with Turkey and in my opinion, we will continue to enjoy such status for a very long time.

 

[wadi79]

China doesn't need to be contained - Chinese planners are doing a wonderful job of containing themselves. In their immediate neighbourhood, they have managed to alienate pretty much everyone - Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea are all US allies - driven ever closer to the US due to Chinese pressure. If you look at a map, China's coast is pretty much covered by these islands/nations. China's aggressive posturing has ensured that it has blockaded its own coast. The two 'allies' which China can count on are North Korea and Pakistan. Without first having free access to the seas, I don't think China will be in any position to 'project' power, despite what the 50-cent army says.

As far as Indian Ocean goes, bases which are too far off to be resupplied from the mainland are not assets, but exposed flanks, which can be isolated and picked off at leisure. The more historically minded amongst us may remember the fall of 'Fortress' Singapore during WW-2. Same principle, different era.

It is also worth remembering that China now imports over 5 million barrels/day of oil - mostly from the Middle East. All of it passes through the straits of Malacca. A squadron of jets, or a pack of submarines, or a few ships, or a battery of missiles stationed anywhere from Andamans to peninsular India to Lakshadweep can block this. So in my opinion, India has very little to worry about - China isn't in a position to threaten anyone here, and will shoot itself in the foot if it tries. I don't think the leadership of China is stupid.

Personally, I think the entire drama on 'South China Sea is an inalienable part of China since Sing-Song dynasty' is propaganda directed at domestic audiences, designed to take attention away from domestic problems. During the 2008 financial crisis, Chinese government played up anti-Japanese sentiment to divert people's attention from financial problems, now this. While the Chinese stock market may not reflect the 'real' economy, the panic of the government, which has failed to stop the market collapse, is very real. The command and control types in Beijing are now discovering that they can't dictate the behaviour of stock market - no matter how many journalists they arrest and short-sellers they make disappear. For control freaks, loss of control is the big fear. What happens when the general public realizes that the mandarins are not all powerful with a heavenly mandate,eh? Moreover, some of the more prosperous Chinese will have investments in shares- what do you do when a few million of your emerging middle-class loses its savings/assets in a stock bubble, which the government had done much to inflate? Trouble at the border/anti-foreigner (Japan, America, whoever) rhetoric offers a way out.

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

The two 'allies' which China can count on are North Korea and Pakistan. .

You forgot Russia.

 

[dadeechi]

My 2 cents [my knowledge of China and Iran is limited so take it for what it is worth]

A. The US-Iran relationships will not see any long term change -- the simple reason is that Iran is an exporter of it's ideology and will always target Israel (a close American Ally) -- Netanyahu is right -- once the frozen billions are freed, it will only swell the coffers of Iran's proxies. The Mullah regime in Iran is an extremely oppressive regime

B. Further the financial/trade interdependence of the US on China is not going away anytime soon [perhaps not for another 20/30 years] -- we in the US have major challenges which will keep us occupied

C. Further the West has ISIS as a priority right now -- how long the ISIS tumor will remain malignant is anybody's guess, 2 years, 5 years 10 years, 20 years ??

D. It remains to be seen if Pakistan will be able to capitalize on CPEC -- Pakistan has no experience executing a project of this magnitude and has a corrupt bureaucracy, low human development indexes, an out of control spending on defense -- despite increased Chinese FDI inflows, the overall FDI inflows have remained flat. Pakistan has potential but so too are its challenges

US-China are going to for a Financial divorce in the next 10 years and SCO would turn into a military alliance. US is fast moving it's industries away from China into other Asian allies while China is dumping the Dollars.

CPEC is being executed by China. China needs CPEC more than Pakistan and it would ensure that it is completed as being planned.

China doesn't need to be contained - Chinese planners are doing a wonderful job of containing themselves. In their immediate neighbourhood, they have managed to alienate pretty much everyone - Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea are all US allies - driven ever closer to the US due to Chinese pressure. If you look at a map, China's coast is pretty much covered by these islands/nations. China's aggressive posturing has ensured that it has blockaded its own coast. The two 'allies' which China can count on are North Korea and Pakistan. Without first having free access to the seas, I don't think China will be in any position to 'project' power, despite what the 50-cent army says.

As far as Indian Ocean goes, bases which are too far off to be resupplied from the mainland are not assets, but exposed flanks, which can be isolated and picked off at leisure. The more historically minded amongst us may remember the fall of 'Fortress' Singapore during WW-2. Same principle, different era.

It is also worth remembering that China now imports over 5 million barrels/day of oil - mostly from the Middle East. All of it passes through the straits of Malacca. A squadron of jets, or a pack of submarines, or a few ships, or a battery of missiles stationed anywhere from Andamans to peninsular India to Lakshadweep can block this. So in my opinion, India has very little to worry about - China isn't in a position to threaten anyone here, and will shoot itself in the foot if it tries. I don't think the leadership of China is stupid.

Personally, I think the entire drama on 'South China Sea is an inalienable part of China since Sing-Song dynasty' is propaganda directed at domestic audiences, designed to take attention away from domestic problems. During the 2008 financial crisis, Chinese government played up anti-Japanese sentiment to divert people's attention from financial problems, now this. While the Chinese stock market may not reflect the 'real' economy, the panic of the government, which has failed to stop the market collapse, is very real. The command and control types in Beijing are now discovering that they can't dictate the behaviour of stock market - no matter how many journalists they arrest and short-sellers they make disappear. For control freaks, loss of control is the big fear. What happens when the general public realizes that the mandarins are not all powerful with a heavenly mandate,eh? Moreover, some of the more prosperous Chinese will have investments in shares- what do you do when a few million of your emerging middle-class loses its savings/assets in a stock bubble, which the government had done much to inflate? Trouble at the border/anti-foreigner (Japan, America, whoever) rhetoric offers a way out.

But China can bypass SCS and still be power to reckon with in IOR (assuming the naval assets have already been transferred during peace time) with all the ports and infrastructure that is being built up in IOR.

The whole point of Chinese routes through Pakistan, Myanmar & Thailand are to by pass SCS and Strait of Malacca.

 

[pakistani342]

US-China are going to for a Financial divorce in the next 10 years and SCO would turn into a military alliance. US is fast moving it's industries away from China into other Asian allies while China is dumping the Dollars.

Do you have references that support this from a broad spectrum of political thought in the US -- I have been thinking of shifting my study from Afghanistan to China for quite some time -- maybe this will get me started. However a couple of my friends studied China as grad students at top schools but I've not heard anything of the sort from them.

CPEC is being executed by China. China needs CPEC more than Pakistan and it would ensure that it is completed as being planned.

Mmm, yes but Pakistanis are masters at missing opportunities -- perhaps that is harsh -- the proof of the pudding will be in its eating. A few days ago I was having dinner with a friend and a mentor on mine who has an interesting in Political philosophy and one of the things he underlined was that for countries to be successful they need a relatively corruption free bureaucracy -- the political class can be corrupt but not the civil servants. Examples: Japan, Malaysia, China, Korea, Turkey, etc. The Pakistani Bureaucracy is corrupt to the core -- so I remain skeptical.

In addition to that the HDIs are very low, population growth out of control -- Pakistan has a nuisance value -- it can scare the bejesus out of even far away countries but it remains to be seen if it can prosper like the other Asian economies like Korea, Malaysia, etc. Pakistan at times I feel may become like Russia -- full of very smart and creative people, a country that has a lot of hard power but not one that can develop a modern social structure. Anyways I should stop commenting, I'm out of my depth here.

 

[wadi79]

US-China are going to for a Financial divorce in the next 10 years and SCO would turn into a military alliance. US is fast moving it's industries away from China into other Asian allies while China is dumping the Dollars.

CPEC is being executed by China. China needs CPEC more than Pakistan and it would ensure that it is completed as being planned.



But China can bypass SCS and still be power to reckon with in IOR (assuming the naval assets have already been transferred during peace time) with all the ports and infrastructure that is being built up in IOR.

The whole point of Chinese routes through Pakistan, Myanmar & Thailand are to by pass SCS and Strait of Malacca.

Again, Singapore. Britain transferred two capital ships - Prince of Wales and Repulse - to Singapore in 'peacetime' to firm up the fortress. In one of the most embarrassing naval losses, both the ships were sunk for the loss of about 12 carrier based aircraft. In the first week of the war.

 

[surya kiran]

There is only one country, which will provide unlimited access to the Chinese. Pakistan. Russia and Iran are direct beneficiaries if the CPEC fails. China becomes more dependent on Russian energy resources. Iran is a smart player driven by their own interests. They will support whichever side makes more sense to them.

So the main countries are Pakistan and Iran. Both will be due to their land routes. China will be able to set up logistical bases. But, in the IOR, they can simply not match the USN and the IN.

Myanmar is inconsequential to the equation. India is improving its relationship with BD and SL. In case, Myanmar does get involved, it will be the biggest blunder on earth. It will provide India, with a reason to create a land route to South East Asia.

The war for the IOR will be fought on land for land routes. The reason, why China is pushing for CPEC is that they realise the IOR dominance strategy will simply not work.

 

[dadeechi]

Do you have references that support this from a broad spectrum of political thought in the US -- I have been thinking of shifting my study from Afghanistan to China for quite some time -- maybe this will get me started. However a couple of my friends studied China as grad students at top schools but I've not heard anything of the sort from them.



Mmm, yes but Pakistanis are masters at missing opportunities -- perhaps that is harsh -- the proof of the pudding will be in its eating. A few days ago I was having dinner with a friend and a mentor on mine who has an interesting in Political philosophy and one of the things he underlined was that for countries to be successful they need a relatively corruption free bureaucracy -- the political class can be corrupt but not the civil servants. Examples: Japan, Malaysia, China, Korea, Turkey, etc. The Pakistani Bureaucracy is corrupt to the core -- so I remain skeptical.

In addition to that the HDIs are very low, population growth out of control -- Pakistan has a nuisance value -- it can scare the bejesus out of even far away countries but it remains to be seen if it can prosper like the other Asian economies like Korea, Malaysia, etc. Pakistan at times I feel may become like Russia -- full of very smart and creative people, a country that has a lot of hard power but not one that can develop a modern social structure. Anyways I should stop commenting, I'm out of my depth here.

Raising wages/costs in China along with the 3D printing technology is making the move out of China faster and less painful.

After decades of exodus, companies returning production to the U.S. - LA Times

 

[pakistani342]

Raising wages/costs in China along with the 3D printing technology is making the move out of China faster and less painful.

After decades of exodus, companies returning production to the U.S. - LA Times

I have read this article and similar ones but these efficiencies apply to China too.

What I would like to see is a corpus of articles that are written by a authors drawn from a broad range of political thought [neocons, libertarians, conservatives, socialists, democrats, etc.] that show a consensus on trade/economic divorce with china.

A few years ago the ultimate realist, Henry Kissinger, wrote his book "On China" this subject -- see video below -- I haven't read the book but from all the reviews I have read and the talk I have seen I don't remember such a dire prediction:

 

[Razia Sultana]

Every Regional Power wants to protect its and interests and Project its power .
Now these project's are not just for the benefit of china or Pakistan or that state it will help them both , We have to see where it leads to
As for infulence of uncle Sam is still in play in most parts.
Pakistan and chinese relation will see a major change in around a decade because of this project and how far both nations are willing to go for each other
Chinese need to get more allies from europe and Asia and africa to become a game changer and Russia is also not yet out of the equation to

So far the Russians have been the counter balance to the US. Post Soviet Union disintegration the world became unipolar but off late Russians have been asserting themselves. Letting China have some space in Europe will be detrimental to Russian interests. They still have more political & military clout than China. They wont let China supercede them so easily, in my opinion.

Right now the US is the only boss in the world but when its place is truly challenged, it will quickly modify its behaviour. for eg. US will start treating Russia as they did to Soviet Union. Iran wont be a problem, Russia will be more involved in middle east, central Asia. China will risk reputation with allies like North Korea, Pakistan.

Off all the access routes, the CPEC will be most important since it will also work as CPMC (China Pakistan Military Corridor). Economic corridor is no threat as sea route from west asia to China via straight of Malacca will always be preferred over land route via Tibet.