Containment of China - Indian Ocean theatre

[Darth Vader]

Every Regional Power wants to protect its and interests and Project its power .
Now these project's are not just for the benefit of china or Pakistan or that state it will help them both , We have to see where it leads to
As for infulence of uncle Sam is still in play in most parts.
Pakistan and chinese relation will see a major change in around a decade because of this project and how far both nations are willing to go for each other
Chinese need to get more allies from europe and Asia and africa to become a game changer and Russia is also not yet out of the equation to

 

[dadeechi]

Granting access to Indian ocean for trade only can't be considered bad. But in war situation only two countries might provide China route to Indian ocean, i.e Pakistan or Mayanmar.

US influence has increased in Myanmar after the democratic elections though Myanmar military is still Chinese leaning.

Every Regional Power wants to protect its and interests and Project its power .
Now these project's are not just for the benefit of china or Pakistan or that state it will help them both , We have to see where it leads to
As for infulence of uncle Sam is still in play in most parts.
Pakistan and chinese relation will see a major change in around a decade because of this project and how far both nations are willing to go for each other
Chinese need to get more allies from europe and Asia and africa to become a game changer and Russia is also not yet out of the equation to

Pakistan is obviously not only China's closest ally but also the most powerful & influential. There is no doubt that China would fully support Pakistan. Now how far would Pakistan reciprocate is the question. As things stand it seems like Pakistan is fully embracing China. How does US react to this move of Pakistan, is the million dollar question. After all US & Pakistan have been close allies for more that 65 years.

 

[Hellfire]

US influence has increased in Myanmar after the democratic elections though Myanmar military is still Chinese leaning.

Wrong. Myanmar - US reconciliation occurred in part due to Indian intervention. What you have failed so far to draw attention to the fact is that the so called 'axis of democracy' is in fact a multifaceted movement wherein India is also playing its part in promotion of democracy by diplomatic and political means. Myanmar was a case wherein an active Indian intervention has bought changes which were unthinkable a decade back. As part of the same, in tandem with US India is actively involved in promoting and strengthening democracy in countries where it is in threat. Engagement with Pakistan should also be seen in this light. By not denouncing the proclamation of assured action by PM of Pakistan, GoI is simply strengthening the standing of the GoP in international arena. The aim is to strengthen the civil establishment in Pakistan and at the same time try and reduce the power that the PA has in foreign affairs. It is a two pronged action wherein even US is involved. The same can be seen from US comments in the past few days.

Similarly, the game is not between US-China as you have been highlighting, instead it is indeed between India and China in IOR and littoral. The US had 'handed over' the Malacca's to Indian Navy when their assets were required for Op Enduring Freedom. Insofar, the US wants India to shoulder additional responsibility in Pacific too, something India has no immediate plans to do. But with India now including South China Sea in the littoral, we may see some more moves yet.

The official mandate to Indian Navy by the GoI is to ensure protection of SLOCs and freedom of navigation in IOR and littoral along with power projection and ensuring dea denial capability for hostile forces. The Indian Navy has been involved in missions conforming to these parameter for quite sometime. These parameters are in sync with US parameters. One also needs to remember that both India and US have an understanding in PSI, wherein we board suspected ships even in high seas if there is suspicion of violation of MTCR, CWC, BWC, NPT etc

There are members who are portraying their inhibitions regarding the equation of Indian and Chinese navies. As long as there is conformation in navigation to the International Maritime Laws, Indian Navy will not deny sea to any nation, even if it is North Korea. However, any non-conformation will be dealt with under mandate of International Laws, something that will have support of the International Community. China is not and will not be an immediate threat for India in the near future.

 

[Darth Vader]

US influence has increased in Myanmar after the democratic elections though Myanmar military is still Chinese leaning.




Pakistan is obviously not only China's closest ally but also the most powerful & influential. There is no doubt that China would fully support Pakistan. Now how far would Pakistan reciprocate is the question. As things stand it seems like Pakistan is fully embracing China. How does US react to this move of Pakistan, is the million dollar question. After all US & Pakistan have been close allies for more that 65 years.

Us still holds big power in political area of Pakistan and some in Armed Forces

Its Not just about Supporting each other
The way current geo politics is going everywhere you might end up seeing States , china , Russia against each other using force us economy is going down and when this will happen as you countries are already de dollorise oil you will see a major conflict that will the point who goes go true length for each other and Pakistan might end up being forward base For China .
So how will Pakistan handle this situation
As Pakistan to do that Pakistan needs really good economy , depend able allies e.g turkey , Ksa , china and really well advance equipped advance force as for now Pakistan and china are already taking steps in all paths lets just wait and watch for a while

 

[Spectre]

As long as there is conformation in navigation to the International Maritime Laws, Indian Navy will not deny sea to any nation, even if it is North Korea. However, any non-conformation will be dealt with under mandate of International Laws, something that will have support of the International Community.

International laws are unenforceable by the virtue of their being no international enforcing agency to enforce them. As the current status stands it is the jungle law out here - just that it has been disguised and masked by pretty words such as UNCLOS which don't mean anything.

For a long time US/USSR were selectively enforcing treaties if and when they aligned with their interest in the spirit of common deterrence but no more.

China is not and will not be an immediate threat for India in the near future.

With an attitude like this no wonder India had been under slavery for centuries and soon shall be yet again.

 

[dadeechi]

Wrong. Myanmar - US reconciliation occurred in part due to Indian intervention. What you have failed so far to draw attention to the fact is that the so called 'axis of democracy' is in fact a multifaceted movement wherein India is also playing its part in promotion of democracy by diplomatic and political means. Myanmar was a case wherein an active Indian intervention has bought changes which were unthinkable a decade back. As part of the same, in tandem with US India is actively involved in promoting and strengthening democracy in countries where it is in threat. Engagement with Pakistan should also be seen in this light. By not denouncing the proclamation of assured action by PM of Pakistan, GoI is simply strengthening the standing of the GoP in international arena. The aim is to strengthen the civil establishment in Pakistan and at the same time try and reduce the power that the PA has in foreign affairs. It is a two pronged action wherein even US is involved. The same can be seen from US comments in the past few days.

Similarly, the game is not between US-China as you have been highlighting, instead it is indeed between India and China in IOR and littoral. The US had 'handed over' the Malacca's to Indian Navy when their assets were required for Op Enduring Freedom. Insofar, the US wants India to shoulder additional responsibility in Pacific too, something India has no immediate plans to do. But with India now including South China Sea in the littoral, we may see some more moves yet.

The official mandate to Indian Navy by the GoI is to ensure protection of SLOCs and freedom of navigation in IOR and littoral along with power projection and ensuring dea denial capability for hostile forces. The Indian Navy has been involved in missions conforming to these parameter for quite sometime. These parameters are in sync with US parameters. One also needs to remember that both India and US have an understanding in PSI, wherein we board suspected ships even in high seas if there is suspicion of violation of MTCR, CWC, BWC, NPT etc

There are members who are portraying their inhibitions regarding the equation of Indian and Chinese navies. As long as there is conformation in navigation to the International Maritime Laws, Indian Navy will not deny sea to any nation, even if it is North Korea. However, any non-conformation will be dealt with under mandate of International Laws, something that will have support of the International Community. China is not and will not be an immediate threat for India in the near future.

There are no differences between Political & Military wings of Pakistan. They just play the game as it suits.

Myanmar Military still has good ties with China and are procuring JF-17s. Aung san suu kyi is US leaning but when the time comes Military will call the shots. China is building up ports and infrastructure in Myanmar. China also has a listening post on the Coco Islands of Myanmar.

Chinese Company Wins Contract for Deep Sea Port in Myanmar | The Diplomat

 

[Hellfire]

International laws are unenforceable by the virtue of their being no international enforcing agency to enforce them. As the current status stands it is the jungle law out here - just that it has been disguised and masked by pretty words such as UNCLOS which don't mean anything.

My post does not give any indication to the contrary. However, it is an open stated policy of GoI to undertake all missions in accordance with the mandated International Laws and Conventions in vogue. Our adherence to NPT despite being a non-signatory is an indication of the same. Indian governments mandate has been on similar lines to the Indian Navy. A deliberate hostile intent towards India, or denial of sea to littoral states by a hostile force, may see indian intervention. The dedicated satellite for Navy is part of increasing the capability towards this. You are right about the jungle rule - the meanest SOB will rule the roost, hence our current procurement and planning.

For a long time US/USSR were selectively enforcing treaties if and when they aligned with their interest in the spirit of common deterrence but no more.With an attitude like this no wonder India had been under slavery for centuries and soon shall be yet again.

Similarly is the case of India. Common interests dictate Indian policy. We all know India has historically never had any leanings towards any party. It was a case of equidistance from all concerned.

About the bold part. It is my opinion and something which I have been following for some years now. China does not want to be bracketed with India. They want to challenge the US on a global stage. They have no time to indulge in one upmanship with India. Their economy is doing well, their objectives of first strengthening their economy and then beginning their military modernization is on track. On the other hand, the failure of current GoI to pass even the GST is a joke. Indian economy is doing well but due to internal demands and not due to imporved business or exports. As long as Indian economy is burdened by politics of appeasement and expediency, we are behind China. It is something like Pakistan and India. We do not like to be clubbed with Pakistan as their economy is no comparision to ours.

Also the current trade deficit in favor of China will ensure that they behabe themselves as economic incentives are too high to be involved in open war.

Yes, economically we need to fight them, in terms of development and infrastructure absolutely. But are we a threat to them yet? That's why my submission. They are securing their SLOCs as their fuel is from Mid East. Also Gwadar is again their requirement as also CPEC. They are taking steps for their interests, yet to see India do the same.

We sat on our A$$es when Najeeb was overthrown in Maldives. IAF and 50 Indep Brigade had mobilized and orders received to land by first light but by 0300 hrs a stand down had been ordered by MMS. We could not even defend democracy in our neighbouring country.

 

[dadeechi]

Us still holds big power in political area of Pakistan and some in Armed Forces

Its Not just about Supporting each other
The way current geo politics is going everywhere you might end up seeing States , china , Russia against each other using force us economy is going down and when this will happen as you countries are already de dollorise oil you will see a major conflict that will the point who goes go true length for each other and Pakistan might end up being forward base For China .
So how will Pakistan handle this situation
As Pakistan to do that Pakistan needs really good economy , depend able allies e.g turkey , Ksa , china and really well advance equipped advance force as for now Pakistan and china are already taking steps in all paths lets just wait and watch for a while

That was history. Pakistan is getting into a full embrace of China after the CPEC agreement. Most of the recent acquisitions have all been from China unless funded by US military assistance/aid which itself on the wane.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

which is why the Arctic route and the overland route are also being developed.

 

[Hellfire]

There are no differences between Political & Military wings of Pakistan. They just play the game as it suits.

Read my post again. I have told you what Indian government has been trying. By posting this we head back in a roundabout route.

Myanmar Military still has good ties with China and are procuring JF-17s. Aung san suu kyi is US leaning but when the time comes Military will call the shots. China is building up ports and infrastructure in Myanmar. China also has a listening post on the Coco Islands of Myanmar

In 1980s and till early 2000s, the policy of GoI was to break off from Myanmar, leaving it to Chinese to move in. Something similar we might see happening in Nepal. The policy was since reversed. Indian army was supplying equipment to Myanmar Army and training was conducted for them in Indian defence institutes also even when it was under military rule. That changed the equation back for India.

As for your contention of Chinese military post in Coco Islands, Vietnam has offered you permanent basing rights which you use intermittently, why don't you use it? Similarly lots of nations have offered India basing rights which India does not. Its an economic as also own security move. Every country has the right to that.

Coming on to the link you provided - well Indian companies lost out to others in other countries too ... its economics - deal with it. Be competitive, be standardized and improve performance ....

As for jf-17s, the country will meet its defence requirements from somewhere wont it? Get your Tejas online and they may buy that instead ..... but where is the LCA? The Long Coming Aircraft?

 

[Spectre]

My post does not give any indication to the contrary. However, it is an open stated policy of GoI to undertake all missions in accordance with the mandated International Laws and Conventions in vogue. Our adherence to NPT despite being a non-signatory is an indication of the same. Indian governments mandate has been on similar lines to the Indian Navy. A deliberate hostile intent towards India, or denial of sea to littoral states by a hostile force, may see indian intervention. The dedicated satellite for Navy is part of increasing the capability towards this. You are right about the jungle rule - the meanest SOB will rule the roost, hence our current procurement and planning.

India and China have different governing philosophies hence you will always see lag in the response time of India. advantage of that Indian policies at large have been under microscope and represent minimum consensus and are balanced. Whereas in China though the pace is blistering there is not enough oversight and blunders are often swept under the rug.

China knows this and wants to throttle India in it's infancy strategically so that India never capitalizes on it's potential of demographic dividend and working democracy. It would be a mistake to be out maneuvered by China - we have to be prepared to respond to any threats or aggressive posturing by China be it economically, diplomatically or militarily. The other countries are watching to see if India steps up to protect it's own interest only then they will throw their dice along with India instead of making a grand bargain with China surrendering Asia to it at the expense of India

However above does not detract from the fact that we have been too timid in securing our interests. I see a lot of legacy problems propping up and there are large number of pressure groups who are working over time for their own interests at the detriment of national interests. Maldive situation being an example.

 

[dadeechi]

My post does not give any indication to the contrary. However, it is an open stated policy of GoI to undertake all missions in accordance with the mandated International Laws and Conventions in vogue. Our adherence to NPT despite being a non-signatory is an indication of the same. Indian governments mandate has been on similar lines to the Indian Navy. A deliberate hostile intent towards India, or denial of sea to littoral states by a hostile force, may see indian intervention. The dedicated satellite for Navy is part of increasing the capability towards this. You are right about the jungle rule - the meanest SOB will rule the roost, hence our current procurement and planning.



Similarly is the case of India. Common interests dictate Indian policy. We all know India has historically never had any leanings towards any party. It was a case of equidistance from all concerned.

About the bold part. It is my opinion and something which I have been following for some years now. China does not want to be bracketed with India. They want to challenge the US on a global stage. They have no time to indulge in one upmanship with India. Their economy is doing well, their objectives of first strengthening their economy and then beginning their military modernization is on track. On the other hand, the failure of current GoI to pass even the GST is a joke. Indian economy is doing well but due to internal demands and not due to imporved business or exports. As long as Indian economy is burdened by politics of appeasement and expediency, we are behind China. It is something like Pakistan and India. We do not like to be clubbed with Pakistan as their economy is no comparision to ours.

Also the current trade deficit in favor of China will ensure that they behabe themselves as economic incentives are too high to be involved in open war.

Yes, economically we need to fight them, in terms of development and infrastructure absolutely. But are we a threat to them yet? That's why my submission. They are securing their SLOCs as their fuel is from Mid East. Also Gwadar is again their requirement as also CPEC. They are taking steps for their interests, yet to see India do the same.

We sat on our A$$es when Najeeb was overthrown in Maldives. IAF and 50 Indep Brigade had mobilized and orders received to land by first light but by 0300 hrs a stand down had been ordered by MMS. We could not even defend democracy in our neighbouring country.

[/QUOTE]

Once the infrastructure like Roads and posts have been built up during peace time, its just a flip of coin to use them during war.

which is why the Arctic route and the overland route are also being developed.

How will arctic route or land route take you to Indian Ocean? My understanding was that those are for Europe.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Once the infrastructure like Roads and posts have been built up during peace time, its just a flip of coin to use them during war.



How will arctic route or land route take you to Indian Ocean? My understanding was that those are for Europe.

They won't. However the Indian ocean is also just a path to European and Middle Eastern markets. I don't think that the PLAN can contest the Indian Ocean directly without fighting a full scale war, thus the lowest risk way is to diversify routes.

 

[dadeechi]

They won't. However the Indian ocean is also just a path to European and Middle Eastern markets. I don't think that the PLAN can contest the Indian Ocean directly without fighting a full scale war, thus the lowest risk way is to diversify routes.

The way I see it is China needs Indian ocean routes for Oil and natural resources from Middle East and Africa and use them to manufacture goods which would be sold to EU nations via the land routes. So I do not think it is an either or situation. China surely needs access to the Indian Ocean.

 

[Donald Trump]

The strategic importance of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), providing major sea routes for world commerce, connecting East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa, with Europe and Americas is growing day by day. In this region, the interests and influence of China, India, and the United States are beginning to overlap and intersect and that therefore the IOR is bound to become a centre of 21st century international conflicts and power dynamics.

India-US defence pacts together with naval exercises with Japan and Australia are seen by many analysts as a subtle move to jointly contain China's growing militarism, especially in the strategic Indian Ocean Region.

India and the US have Inked of several defence agreements, to augment bilateral strategic ties for mutual benefit. The overarching protocol, in this vast area of likely cooperation, is the 10-year Defence Framework Agreement.

Analysts view this pact as a subtle move to jointly contain China's growing militarism, especially in the strategic Indian Ocean Region. Japan and Australia too are a part of this growing quadrilateral anxious to limit Beijing's hegemonistic ambitions.

However, it must be noted that no single or regional power including Russia, China, Australia and India, can control the Indian Ocean by itself in the future. After jostling among powers, a fragile balance of power might be reached in the region.

But all said, China is alone against the might of powerful 'allied' navies in the IOR and thus at a considerable disadvantage. The skewed combat ratio precludes it from any kind of domination of the IOR now or in the future.