COMMENT : Pakistan’s forced realignment

[Developereo]

name the trading houses of pakistan of the 60's,70's. they were all 'nationalised'. they took their money and ran. so who was going to build these business relationships.?

I thought the nationalizations happened under ZAB in the mid 70s. In any case, what's the excuse today?

Also, back in the day, Pakistan had a movie industry to rival Bollywood in terms of quality. If Bollywood can (try to) make inroads into China, why not Pakistan? Pakistan's musical talent is still very decent, although the movie industry has a long way to recover.

so this incident is going to 'derail' pakistan's relationship with china. is it so fragile?

I agree the relationship, and shared interests, are still strong but we need to start pulling our own weight, financially and diplomatically, in this partnership.

....and when the arab spring lands in the KSA and threatens the house of saud, who are they gonna call...........the US marines, the indian army to save their souls?.........right you guessed it.

Terrible example. Are you sure we want to be on the wrong side of history, protecting dictators from their own people? If, God forbid, there should be massive casualties, how will these people remember Pakistan's role in their freedom struggle?

What does Pakistan offer that China does not?

Indian businessmen are finding opportunities in China; surely we can too

Besides, there is the cultural angle. We need our artists tapping all these foreign markets and projecting Pakistan's soft power. That's where government support can help by financially encouraging foreign tours and expositions by Pakistani artists. I am sure the Chinese government would be more than happy to help.

WoT also comes into play, reducing the people to people contact

There is no WoT in China. I am advocating a bigger footprint for Pakistani entrepreneurs and artists within China because I do believe that, of all the international relationships, the Pak-China relationship has solid fundamentals and has the potential to be a very long term mutually beneficial relationship.

Culturally, India is closer and potentially a solid partner, but there's is a lot of work needed on both sides before that relationship normalizes.

 

[Jango]

Besides, there is the cultural angle. We need our artists tapping all these foreign markets and projecting Pakistan's soft power. That's where government support can help by financially encouraging foreign tours and expositions by Pakistani artists. I am sure the Chinese government would be more than happy to help.

Cultural angle cannot get you money. It sure can make cultural inroads into the Chinese society, but it stops at that IMO.

But it is worth giving a try, whats the harm in it?

There is no WoT in China. I am advocating a bigger footprint for Pakistani entrepreneurs and artists within China because I do believe that, of all the international relationships, the Pak-China relationship has solid fundamentals and has the potential to be a very long term mutually beneficial relationship.

This works both ways. Chinese would also have to come into Pakistan to promote their culture and society in ours, same as you are proposing for us. This is crucial to have a mutual understanding between the two countries on a grass root level.

As long as WoT is stil here, there would be some second thoughts on Chinese minds about coming here.

I am all up for it, but sadly, the shortsightedness of people in control prevents most things from happening.

 

[KRAIT]

An important thing that need is what Oscar explained: Perception Change. There is strong need for decrease in Emotional Quotient and increase in General Intellectual Quotient vis-a-vis major powers and neighbors. Lack of practical and rational approach towards nation's self interest is what has been highlighted by other posters.

US and China has provided what Pakistan has required but only those things that are required by THEM for THEIR own strategic goals. Whether it is arms and money during Afghan war by US against Soviet or arms by China against counter-weighting India.

I would like to explain the scientific, and educational aspect that Pakistan failed to get it from relationships with these super-powers.
During this period, Pakistan could have asked, and still can, to an extent, ask for important technology transfer in Civil, Space-Aviation, Mechanical, Chemical, Metallurgical etc. These are the building blocks for industrialization of nation and for self-reliance. But instead of getting the basics and the knowledge, Pakistan asked for finished products except few examples like Al-Khalid, JF-17 etc. which did provide some vital knowledge transfer.

Important thing to focus is why Pakistan failed to get best educational and scientific knowledge from US, which has one of the best universities and Research centers in the world and now China is having that too. The focus can still be fixed to it. We remember the example of Abdus Salam's recommendation for space program and its earlier implementation than India but Ayub Khan failed to understand the importance of it. This also shows that for benefits of nations, leader should be ready to understand what he/she can't and listen to people who do understand it.

For rational and productive work-force which is innovative too, a country needs huge investment in educational sector specially in Science and Technology. Water-car episode highlighted the lack of scientific knowledge and rationality in general populace. If one look at any country which is doing well at world stage, are those who have strong educational set up and World Class universities. They churn out the most productive portion, driving force of the nation, i.e. engineers and scientists. They are required in every field of economy: agriculture, industry, medicine, etc. One can coorelate the growth of these nations' global strength and say at world politics with their scientific output and industrial breakthroughs.

Still the ball is in Pakistan's court as it can still attract valuable knowledge investment by Chinese by focusing on developing Scientific and Technological centers and creating a new breed and generation of Engineers and Scientists. At the same time, ability to absorb these people in the domestic industries and minimizing brain drain will also be the key. Pakistan can still attract KSA investment in these field too as Pakistan still have many innovative minds who just want advanced research facilities and funding.

To bring house in order, one has to remove ignorance with rationality and knowledge. Failing to do so will keep the condition intact more or less, even if their is change in geo-political and political structure of the nation. Mistakes will keep on repeating as it has been.

 

[Last Hope]

In the matters of foreign policy there are no permanent friends or foes — something that Pakistan is learning the hard way.

Yes, I totally agree on that. Pakistan must neither isolate itself nor depend on anyone too much. First it were the US who were depended upon for decades and now the equilibrium has turned towards China. You can not make anyone dominant over you, by serving yourself in a tray on their dinner table. Neither can you stay away from anyone by hiding behind the gun and flexing. You cannot afford enmity with the US, but neither can you afford to be too close to China. Balance things out.

If that was not enough, Pakistan got its second shock when the Saudi Arabian government rejected Pakistan’s desperate plea to handover Abu Jindal, an Indian national, who also had a Pakistani passport and identity card and was one of the masterminds of the Mumbai attacks, to the Pakistan authorities. Instead, Saudi Arabia chose to hand over Abu Jindal to the Indian authorities who would use him to find more links between the Mumbai attacks and the security agencies in Pakistan. Pakistan had not completely digested this move when, according to the sources within the establishment of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia sent an under the table warning to Pakistan to ‘sort out the house’ — in other words, to tackle the problem of militants’ safe havens — an American line that Saudi Arabia reiterated.

This is very smart of Indians, to capture the attention of the 'ally' of Pakistan by meeting their interests. India has, economically, tried and successfully accomplished their objectives to strengthen their ties with Saudi Arabia. The next few years for Indian exports in agricultural products are going to face a boom. The new Minister of Agriculture is CEO of one of the largest companies in GCC, and that's how I happen to know him. He admires Indians a lot for their 'Loyalty' to his services. While Pakistanis or Arabs working with him, be Board of Directors or managers tend to 'talk back' on certain decisions which they believe are not going to do good or disturb the working environment, Indians have hardly done that and did always as he said, and gained this admiration. Like they say 'Haan mein haan milana', this attitude will result in good fortune to India since he is the new Minister. It's hardly the topic, yet decided to share.

the ‘Islamic brotherhood with Saudi Arabia’ have died down within the policymaking circles, especially within the Pakistan army.

The reason of the ties are not 'Islamic Brotherhood' but Pakistan satisfies Saudis' interests. There are far more officers and soldiers posted in KSA than you might believe, including a company of SSG to work as front-line for situations Saudis cannot handle. If Pakistan stops providing these services, the 'Islamic Brotherhood' would vanish. Yes, it did exist back in times till Kind Fahad, but today it's economy over 'Islamic Brotherhood' that matters more for KSA.

As a brigadier in the army said, “It is not the United States that has ruined Pakistan; the Chinese and Saudis have done worse to this country internally.”

I tend to disagree over here, it's Pakistan's policies that have caused the damage, not China, Saudi Arabia or USA.

 

[Pfpilot]

Great points Krait. But the problem remains that we can't benefit from the grass roots knowledge America and China could provide to us, at the least, we'd be unable to use it effectively. Until the broken education system isn't fixed and better funded, Pakistan isn't producing the sheer numbers of highly educated professionals in many of the fields you mentioned. What allowed China and India to move ahead was the almost obsessive focus on education. Their respective economic progress can be seen as lag indicators relative to their investment in education; one only needs to observe the lists of top universities and observe how often these two nations come up. Relative to their still poor GDP per capita, it is an impressive accomplishment. The potential gain from any knowledge imparted on us by the Chinese, Europeans, or Americans is severely limited by our own inability to decipher and then implement it.

It also brings us back to the point of: what do we have to offer that would push the Chinese, for example, to invest domestically? The need for mutually beneficial relationships is never more important than in this case. The Chinese don't have to invest in Pakistan, if it doesn't suit them. There simply are better and safer candidates as the world opens up to them. Nations who require our monetary and cultural investment as much as we require theirs are the only ones whom we can rely on. Now, if we get the educational infrastructure sorted out and produce a new generation of educated Pakistanis, then suddenly all these same powers will need us, much like they needed India. The very same corporations that shun us today, will be clamoring to invest locally and, in turn, pressuring their own governments to gain favor with Pakistan. A highly educated population is a huge trump card in it's own right. It is the only currency with which a 3rd world nation can make a fair transaction with the developed world. Until that takes place, the sharks of this world, it's premier powers, should be avoided. We just don't have the leverage to create favorable terms in any relationship with them, long term. The short term is a different story and the results of which are in front of us.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Some slight tidying of the edges, perhaps, might not be a bad idea?

Yes, I totally agree on that. Pakistan must neither isolate itself nor depend on anyone too much. First it were the US who were depended upon for decades and now the equilibrium has turned towards China. You can not make anyone dominant over you, by serving yourself in a tray on their dinner table. Neither can you stay away from anyone by hiding behind the gun and flexing. You cannot afford enmity with the US, but neither can you afford to be too close to China. Balance things out.

Wasn't it called non-alignment, back in the day?

This is very smart of Indians, to capture the attention of the 'ally' of Pakistan by meeting their interests.

I submit that it was not really anything half so exciting, instead it was patient, plodding step-by-step foundation making and bridge building. That was at one level. There were others, but none of them displayed brilliance, instead they displayed an infinite capacity to take pains.

India has, economically, tried and successfully accomplished their objectives to strengthen their ties with Saudi Arabia. The next few years for Indian exports in agricultural products are going to face a boom. The new Minister of Agriculture is CEO of one of the largest companies in GCC, and that's how I happen to know him. He admires Indians a lot for their 'Loyalty' to his services. While Pakistanis or Arabs working with him, be Board of Directors or managers tend to 'talk back' on certain decisions which they believe are not going to do good or disturb the working environment, Indians have hardly done that and did always as he said, and gained this admiration. Like they say 'Haan mein haan milana', this attitude will result in good fortune to India since he is the new Minister. It's hardly the topic, yet decided to share.

Important, very. Ironically, this attitude of never saying no, much hated in the western world of business, is an asset in the obsequious world of Asian business.

The reason of the ties are not 'Islamic Brotherhood' but Pakistan satisfies Saudis' interests. There are far more officers and soldiers posted in KSA than you might believe, including a company of SSG to work as front-line for situations Saudis cannot handle. If Pakistan stops providing these services, the 'Islamic Brotherhood' would vanish. Yes, it did exist back in times till Kind Fahad, but today it's economy over 'Islamic Brotherhood' that matters more for KSA.


I tend to disagree over here, it's Pakistan's policies that have caused the damage, not China, Saudi Arabia or USA.

 

[notorious_eagle]

Now, if we get the educational infrastructure sorted out and produce a new generation of educated Pakistanis, then suddenly all these same powers will need us, much like they needed India. The very same corporations that shun us today, will be clamoring to invest locally and, in turn, pressuring their own governments to gain favor with Pakistan. A highly educated population is a huge trump card in it's own right. It is the only currency with which a 3rd world nation can make a fair transaction with the developed world. Until that takes place, the sharks of this world, it's premier powers, should be avoided. We just don't have the leverage to create favorable terms in any relationship with them, long term. The short term is a different story and the results of which are in front of us.

Good Sir this paragraph is a home run

Education as a whole is an essential ingredient for a nation to progress. Education ensures that a society is enlightened which allows it to solve all of her problems through a civilized manner. History is full of examples of nations whom ruled the world due to their superior education system. If it weren't for superior German technology and education system, the Nazi's could have never built a world beating war machine in such a short time. Romans were considered more educated than their counterparts, that is why they ruled most of the known world. Roman philosophers and intellectuals ensured Rome's superiority for centuries. Their Generals were known to be more creative than their counterparts, and it was only their education which ensured superior line of thinking.

The only reason why China and India are progressing so fast is because of their education system. Their obsession with education will ensure their prosperity in the long run. Japan and Germany are ideal examples of nations whom built themselves solely due to their hard work and an educated workforce. Their nations suffered immense loss and destruction after World War 2. But due to their educated work force, it took them almost 10 years to return back to their Pre War Strength. If there is one thing we need in Pakistan right now, that is an education bomb and not a nuclear bomb. More than 60% of Pakistani's are under the age of 30, if they were not provided with a proper education they will only be a burden on the population. Instead of cashing in on our youth bulge, we are most likely going to be feeding and supporting them due to our short sightedness. Its a shame that we only allocate 1.8% of our GDP to our education sector. What is even a bigger shame is that most of the money allocated for our education department is mostly siphoned off in corruption.

Anyways, sorry for derailing the topic but i believe education is very closely related to our internal strength. A vibrant education sector ensures internal strength both in the short and long term.

 

[Kompromat]

having said all the above....yes we need to put our house in order.

............or we're **** out of luck this time around !

 

[Sasquatch]

Interesting thread, Pakistan should not be to reliant on either America or China but rather balancing out it's relation one simply won't replace the other. As of now Pakistan is currently expanding ties with Iran and Russia as well as going on with the pipeline with Iran despite American warnings.

This thing happens everywhere in our life, a example that I have seen is person X making person Y his best pal and always under the arm. Because Y has a car and X needs some transportation. As soon as X also buys a car, Y gets discarded and thrown to the dogs.

The scenario Oscar painted is very gloomy without doubt. When China goes to become a superpower like US, it would most probably discard us, and we (collective society) would be left reeling from this jolt, just like a drunk man staggering in the dark, empty road.
.

Agreed with the first part China won't be the savior of Pakistan only Pakistan can do that. Now as far as discarding Pakistan when China becomes a superpower, like the US did several times more complicated then that, Pakistan is an important Strategic partner for China, access to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean and it's vital for China to try and bypass the Malacca Strait.

 

[Sasquatch]

The first blow came in April 2011 when China, in clear words, held the ‘safe havens’ in Pakistan responsible for the militant activities in their Xingiang province following the lead of the US

so this incident is going to 'derail' pakistan's relationship with china. is it so fragile?

Nope, but China does want Pakistan to crack down on these otherwise Xinjiang will become unstable.

 

[Developereo]

This works both ways. Chinese would also have to come into Pakistan to promote their culture and society in ours, same as you are proposing for us. This is crucial to have a mutual understanding between the two countries on a grass root level.

I would rather Pakistan takes the first step to get things rolling. Yes, until the government improves the security environment, no foreigner, Chinese or otherwise, will come to Pakistan.

But instead of getting the basics and the knowledge, Pakistan asked for finished products except few examples like Al-Khalid, JF-17 etc. which did provide some vital knowledge transfer.

Excellent point. For the life of me, I can't understand why Pakistan doesn't go for more joint ventures. It would reduce the costs for Pakistan, spread risk, improve indigenous capability and have all the other benefits you mentioned.

At the same time, ability to absorb these people in the domestic industries and minimizing brain drain will also be the key.

Another good point. India and China have had excellent educational institutions for decades, but they didn't bear economic fruit. The best minds just hopped on a plane for the West. Working on the supply side of talent is essential, but we also need to address the demand angle, otherwise nobody will bother going to university. Already, in the West, local enrollment in IT courses is down because there is a perception that those jobs are not a sure bet.

I am not sure what Japan and Germany did differently from India and China to keep their talent at home even in the darkest times and boot strap the country itself.

Pakistan can still attract KSA investment in these field too as Pakistan still have many innovative minds who just want advanced research facilities and funding.

That was the winning formula that built Pakistan's nuclear capability: Arab money + Chinese mentoring + Pakistani talent.

Now China can lend the money also, so we can reduce one variable. The problem with Arab money is that it comes with too many strings attached and compromises Pakistan's freedom to deal with Iran and other countries.

Ideally, Pakistan should learn how to balance the Arabs, Iranians, Turks and others so that any engagement with one side is not viewed as a betrayal by the others.

the sharks of this world, it's premier powers, should be avoided.

There are some benefits that only a first tier power can provide. Israel has its relationship with the US; India had with the Soviets (now Russians) and Pakistan with the Chinese. Even a glancing encounter with these powers' cutting edge technological expertise can bring huge benefits if, as Krait pointed out, we use them as mentors, not just vendors.

However, I also agree with your broader point that a relationship of equals with smaller countries provides equally important benefits because it forces us to do more of the heavy lifting.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Another good point. India and China have had excellent educational institutions for decades, but they didn't bear economic fruit. The best minds just hopped on a plane for the West. Working on the supply side of talent is essential, but we also need to address the demand angle, otherwise nobody will bother going to university. Already, in the West, local enrollment in IT courses is down because there is a perception that those jobs are not a sure bet.

I am not sure what Japan and Germany did differently from India and China to keep their talent at home even in the darkest times and boot strap the country itself.

Look up the figures of expenditure on R&D relative to the size of the GDP.

 

[fatman17]

I thought the nationalizations happened under ZAB in the mid 70s. In any case, what's the excuse today?

Also, back in the day, Pakistan had a movie industry to rival Bollywood in terms of quality. If Bollywood can (try to) make inroads into China, why not Pakistan? Pakistan's musical talent is still very decent, although the movie industry has a long way to recover.



I agree the relationship, and shared interests, are still strong but we need to start pulling our own weight, financially and diplomatically, in this partnership.



Terrible example. Are you sure we want to be on the wrong side of history, protecting dictators from their own people? If, God forbid, there should be massive casualties, how will these people remember Pakistan's role in their freedom struggle?



Indian businessmen are finding opportunities in China; surely we can too

Besides, there is the cultural angle. We need our artists tapping all these foreign markets and projecting Pakistan's soft power. That's where government support can help by financially encouraging foreign tours and expositions by Pakistani artists. I am sure the Chinese government would be more than happy to help.



There is no WoT in China. I am advocating a bigger footprint for Pakistani entrepreneurs and artists within China because I do believe that, of all the international relationships, the Pak-China relationship has solid fundamentals and has the potential to be a very long term mutually beneficial relationship.

Culturally, India is closer and potentially a solid partner, but there's is a lot of work needed on both sides before that relationship normalizes.

name the business houses ala tata, godrej etc who have the muscle to change the establishment view (which BTW is not business oriented but control oriented (supported by the landlords) - see the inner 'strings' which bind these morons to keep the status quo (why we dont encourage education of the masses - they lose control). blaming the army wholly and solely for our misfortune is not correct.

 

[muse]

Friends, no one, especially not China, is going to buy the idea that Pakistani Islamists can be "handled", that they can be reasoned with -- First of all, why do we need to reason with them at all? Why does Pakistan need Islamists? Why does pakistan need to play beggar when it is a very wealthy country?

These questions should be debated by Pakistanis and all who would be friends - And once that debate is over, lets see some action, lack theeof, is also an expression that world can live with, but can Pakistanis?

 

[haviZsultan]

A number of points to consider:
-China will naturally want to promote its interests and will wish to deal with the Urumqi rebels using Waziristan as a haven
-Iran will be concerned about US alliance
-Saudi will be concerned about Iran and will continue favoring US.
-India will continue bashing Pakistan on every front.

The question is what will Pakistan do?

The thing is simple-every nation has its own interests and will advocate them vociferously which does not mean that ties themselves have been killed because of a small disaster. The demand to act against rebels has not been heard since the 1 time it was during the riots in China.

Furthermore projects are underway and the Gwadar port may be transferred to China soon so we are in too massive of a relationship to be bogged down by these issues.

Question is however, will Pakistan ever manage to promote its interests or will Mr Davis after proof that he has been spying will be released again while Afia is in jail? Assertiveness is not a bad thing, it means a nation cares about its position in the world. Pakistan needs to build its own position and offer a joined operation against Urumqi rebels. Pakistan and China together have massive benefits-China invests-jobs in Pakistan everyone happy. It is time for Pakistan to seek a stronger relationship with China and understand it may be the replacement of western hegemony.

I would like to note economic growth and assertiveness are inter-linked. The good thing about the war on terror is it has made us introspective, the bad thing is since we are focused with things at home we are less assertive and our foreign policy is the greatest rubbish of the century.