COMMENT : Pakistan’s forced realignment

[fatman17]

COMMENT : Pakistan’s forced realignment

— Hussain Nadim


Pakistan must give up its ‘rhetorical alliances’ that can only take it to a certain point — a lesson it should have learnt after the experience with China


In the matters of foreign policy there are no permanent friends or foes — something that Pakistan is learning the hard way. It is known in Pakistan that as long as the storm does not hit, whether it is domestic or foreign policy, the policy makers will not move an inch. The dearth of strategic foreign policy has limited Pakistan’s options and is moving the country to isolation in the international system. This reality had hit the foreign policy making quarters of Pakistan after back to back shocks by two of its celebrated ‘natural’ allies due to which, now, Pakistan is desperately trying to open up towards Russia, and normalization of relations with India is in progress.

The first blow came in April 2011 when China, in clear words, held the ‘safe havens’ in Pakistan responsible for the militant activities in their Xingiang province following the lead of the US. But more serious concerns came in the aftermath of the raid on Osama bin Laden and the blockage of the supply line, with the inner sources in the policy making circles claiming that China had indicated that it would not stand by Pakistan in its adventures with the US. It was as if the ground slipped from beneath the policy makers in Pakistan; after all, China was perceived as an ‘all weather’ ally of Pakistan against the US and India. Moreover, at the SCO summit in June 2012, the Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang, who is in line to be the next Premier, in his talks with S M Krishna categorised Sino-Indian ties to be the most important bilateral relations in the 21st century. The statement came as a surprise, but interestingly, Pakistan did not launch a hue and cry campaign with the Chinese government, the way it blasted the US for its nuclear deal with India. In the policymaking circles of Pakistan, frustration became evident that it was not just the US that was realigning with India, but the Chinese also extended an olive branch to the Indians; which meant that Pakistan lost its Chinese card. However, Pakistan chose to remain silent on the issue so as not to bust the illusion of ‘Pak-Cheen dosti’ (Pak-China friendship) to its own public.

If that was not enough, Pakistan got its second shock when the Saudi Arabian government rejected Pakistan’s desperate plea to handover Abu Jindal, an Indian national, who also had a Pakistani passport and identity card and was one of the masterminds of the Mumbai attacks, to the Pakistan authorities. Instead, Saudi Arabia chose to hand over Abu Jindal to the Indian authorities who would use him to find more links between the Mumbai attacks and the security agencies in Pakistan. Pakistan had not completely digested this move when, according to the sources within the establishment of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia sent an under the table warning to Pakistan to ‘sort out the house’ — in other words, to tackle the problem of militants’ safe havens — an American line that Saudi Arabia reiterated.

In the aftermath of these events; in the past two years, the myopic ideas of Pak-Cheen dosti and the ‘Islamic brotherhood with Saudi Arabia’ have died down within the policymaking circles, especially within the Pakistan army, which now feels isolated in a troubled neighbourhood. The ideas of a crude realist foreign policy are assuming dominance over a religiously and emotionally motivated foreign policy that Pakistan followed in the past 65 years.

As a brigadier in the army said, “It is not the United States that has ruined Pakistan; the Chinese and Saudis have done worse to this country internally.” What the people know on the ground is the fabricated reality of China as an evergreen friend of Pakistan who will not allow the US to bully Pakistan. Pakistan has been bullied for the past six years, and there is nothing that China has done or would want to do, partly because it has too much at stake with the US. For China, Pakistan matters very little in the broad geo-political game.

This was also revealed in one of my meetings with a US diplomat who felt surprised at the attitude of the Chinese government towards Pakistan on his trip to China. “The rhetoric we heard in Pakistan is overwhelmed with the ideas of Pakistan-Chinese cooperation, friendship and alliance, but in Beijing there is little talk about Pakistan, and only the junior level diplomats are assigned to work on Pakistan.”

What Pakistan is undergoing now after being hard hit by its ‘natural’ allies is a desperate attempt to find new friends in the region and the world at large — possibly those significant countries that Pakistan soured relations with over religious issues or during the Cold War when it chose to be in the camp of the US. As mentioned earlier in the analogy of the storm, the realignment with Russia should have come right after the end of the Cold War, but it did not. It comes at a time when Pakistan is in a weaker position and has very little to offer in return; thus President Putin mentioned while cancelling his trip to Pakistan that it was more ‘rhetoric’ than actual words.

Pakistan must give up its ‘rhetorical alliances’ that can only take it to a certain point — a lesson it should have learnt after the experience with China. Real alliances are developed in the right time, with the right understanding of the geo-political events. Unfortunately, as Michael Kugelman mentioned in one of his blogs in a Pakistani national daily, there are no experts on the US in Pakistan. I would add to his analysis by claiming that Pakistan has no experts on China either. And the experts in the Pakistan military are not trained to think liberally and strategically due to their narrow training as military officers, rather than as diplomatic officers.

It is based on this hard-hitting reality and need that Pakistan is realigning its alliances in the region, something that is likely going to influence South Asian social, political, and economic dynamics.

The writer is a lecturer at the National University of Science and Technology (NUST) in Islamabad. He is also an Associate Fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), Kings College, London. He can be reached at hnm87@gwmail.gwu.edu

 

[Kompromat]

Simply brilliant.

 

[Pfpilot]

As true as the article is, it is just as sad. It doesn't require some fortune teller like ability to predict the end to the dangerous story we have been writing for decades. Emotional decisions, whether in regards to middle eastern nations that have not only abandoned us time and again, but are doubtless responsible for the larger Islamization of our nation; or our over dependence on the whims of great powers, have doomed us. We could have gained far more had we extended an olive branch to the Israelis, when they were devoid of global partners than we have ever gained from our Arab "brothers". Subsidized gas is great, but aside from investment in madrasahs, we have very little to show for years of standing by nations that have not thought twice about our needs. Equally, I have opined repeatedly that our over reliance on and almost deity like respect for the Chinese is no different than the awe with which the last generation of Pakistanis viewed America.

I will add, this should not be a criticism of the Chinese or Saudis, they have their own needs and goals. It is not their job to make sure Pakistan succeeds. None the less, the current geopolitical standing of Pakistan does leave it with no discernible path out of its current mess, without a complete rethink of it's alliances. A rethink that should have been undertaken when the Americans first sanctioned us after our aggression towards India, in the 60s and 70s. Does it really require a genius to realize: when the nation that equips you for war and then abandons you when the war breaks out, is going to really back you in the future?

There has been a need to avoid embroiling ourselves in global politics and focus on building are nation with the help of and mutual relations with nations that occupy a similar place in the world as us. Long lasting friendships exist, in the same way real friendships exist; we are friends with those, with whom we have things in common. A world power scheming to increase it's global influence, is not in the same place in it's development as Pakistan. Nations that would benefit from an affiliation with Pakistan and with whom we can form a relation of mutual respect and leverage should be favored above all else. The Americans and the Chinese don't need us, since their game is of a far greater scale. The Turkey's and Bangladesh's of the world more closely mirror our reality, but the chance to make a big splash and play high stakes poker with the big boys makes our policy makers feel like they belong. Naturally then, like the poor man that dresses nice and feels rich, Pakistan's assessment of it's own standing in the world is far greater than judged by virtually anyone else.

If we ever plan to succeed, we have to look at foreign relations and diplomacy from the lens of a nation with no leverage. We must develop relations with nations who may have something we want, instead of the current system of chasing after the power that is willing to shower us with the most gifts at this very moment. So we must not blame Saudi Arabia or China or American, but our own heightened view of ourselves that has prevented us from seeing our own underprivileged reality. We don't belong with the big boys, because we simply aren't one.

 

[Joe Shearer]

As true as the article is, it is just as sad. It doesn't require some fortune teller like ability to predict the end to the dangerous story we have been writing for decades. Emotional decision, whether in regards to middle eastern nations that have not only abandoned us time and again, but are doubtless responsible for the larger Islamization of our nation; or our over dependence on the whims of great powers, have doomed us. We could have gained far more had we extended an olive branch to the Israelis when they were devoid of global partners than we have ever gained from our Arab "brothers". Subsidized gas is great, but aside from investment in madrasahs, we have very little to show for years of standing by nations that have not thought twice about our needs. Equally, I have opined repeatedly that our over reliance on and almost deity like respect for the Chinese is no different than the awe with which the last generation of Pakistanis viewed America.

I will add, this should not be a criticism of the Chinese or Saudis, they have their own needs and goals. It is not their jobs to make sure Pakistan succeeds. None the less, the current geopolitical standing of Pakistan does leave it with no discernible path out of its current mess without a complete rethink of it's alliances. A rethink that should have been undertaken when the Americans first sanctioned us after our aggression towards India, in the 60s and 70s. Does it really require a genius to realize: when the nation that equips you for war and then abandons you when the war breaks out, is going to really back you in the future?

There has been a need to avoid embroiling ourselves in global politics and focus on building are nation with the help of and mutual relations with nations that occupy a similar place in the world as us. Long lasting friendships exist, in the same way real friendships exist; we are friends with those, with whom we have things in common. A world power scheming to increase it's global influence, is not in the same place in it's development as Pakistan. Nations that would benefit from an affiliation with Pakistan and with whom we can form a relation of mutual respect and leverage should be favored above all else. The Americans and the Chinese don't need us, since their game is of a far greater scale. The Turkey's and Bangladesh's of the world more closely mirror our reality, but the chance to make a big splash and play high stakes poker with the big boys makes our policy makers feel like they belong. Naturally then, like the poor man that dresses nice and feels rich, Pakistan's assessment of it's own standing in the world is far greater than judged by virtually anyone else.

If we ever plan to succeed, we have to look at foreign relations and diplomacy from the lens of nation with no leverage. We must develop relations with nations who may have something we want, instead of the current system of chasing after the power that is willing to shower us with the most gifts at this very moment. So we must not blame Saudi Arabia or China or American, but our own heightened view of ourselves that has prevented us from seeing our own underprivileged reality. We don't belong with the big boys, because we simply aren't one.

Please try to understand that for a particular Indian point of view (there are several, all representative, although contradictory, because India has a diversity of opinion which is disconcerting), both the original post and the subsequent comment by an extremely balanced and mature member of the Think Tank are disturbing.

Perhaps the second comment is even more disturbing than the first.

We read first that the illusions built up due to an emotional reconstruction of reality were being shattered. That is brutal enough, and we have to admit a degree of vicarious sympathy and even pain. But then we read how the Israelis, for instance, would/might have been a better choice. And that was really painful to read.

While it is quite clear that even extremely refined and sophisticated Pakistani opinion does not have anything but complete antipathy to India, it is difficult to understand how the simple fact is not visible that even a half-hearted gesture of genuine, fundamental desire to live in peace would get an overwhelming and relieved response from India.

This is so peculiar, so totally incomprehensible.

 

[Pfpilot]

Please try to understand that for a particular Indian point of view (there are several, all representative, although contradictory, because India has a diversity of opinion which is disconcerting), both the original post and the subsequent comment by an extremely balanced and mature member of the Think Tank are disturbing.

Perhaps the second comment is even more disturbing than the first.

We read first that the illusions built up due to an emotional reconstruction of reality were being shattered. That is brutal enough, and we have to admit a degree of vicarious sympathy and even pain. But then we read how the Israelis, for instance, would/might have been a better choice. And that was really painful to read.

While it is quite clear that even extremely refined and sophisticated Pakistani opinion does not have anything but complete antipathy to India, it is difficult to understand how the simple fact is not visible that even a half-hearted gesture of genuine, fundamental desire to live in peace would get an overwhelming and relieved response from India.

This is so peculiar, so totally incomprehensible.

If I understand your point correctly, then my apologies for excluding a point that, in my case, is a given. I am as close to a pro-Indian lobby from the Pakistani side as they come; peace with India is usually central to any argument I make when it comes to a prosperous future. But in this particular scenario, I am forced to remain within the realm of a reality (as far fetched as it may seem). The Pakistani government has shown it has no problem dealing with the Israelis behind the scenes in extremely rare circumstances and that is enough to at least create the possibility that a more sustainable relationship could have been developed had the will been there.

The current Pakistani setup will not allow for a relationship with India that goes beyond lip service. It is simply too convenient for India and now America to be scape goats for whatever takes place within Pakistan. Considering, Pakistan, finds itself blamed almost before evidence presents itself from the Indian side anytime something suspicious happens, I think you'd understand why the current hostility conveniently shifts blame from the mistakes of relevant parties from both sides of the border.

If this was about my personal opinion, then I do believe, and I have said so in the past: due to the relatively similar culture and massive shared border; the Indo-Pak relationship has the potential to be a truly beneficial and long lasting one. If for no other reason than prosperity of nations that can't simply pack up and move to a different part of the world, is directly related. If India is to ever take it's place as a premier power; if Pakistan is to establish peace and bright future for it's people, then the two nations cannot continue to risk going to war. But alas, the reality, as can be witnessed in various other threads on this forum, is a little different.

 

[Joe Shearer]

It is with sadness that I acknowledge that your assessment is realistic. Coming as it does, as you have pointed out, from a positively inclined individual, we have no room for self-delusion. We have to work harder for permanent peace.

What a disgraceful state of affairs.

I hope I live to see those good days of permanent peace and lightly-managed borders. And of the opportunity of seeing gods like Brigadier Hesky Baig once again.

 

[Kompromat]

Current: Pakistan - Saudi Relationship = Beggar and Donor Relationship. We have become their reserve Army.
Current: Pakistan - China Relationship = Pakistan's geographic importance, China doesn't want another troublesome neighbor plus a reserve lashing whip against India.

Thanks to our leaders, our sovereignty has been auctioned. We must wake up, otherwise we will spend another decade doing someone Else's dirty work. A strong relationship with Saudis or with Chinese is going to be the one rooted in trade, commerce, mutual benefits not in a setup where they give us soft loans and cheap oil to become their satellite state.

Pakistan needs to develop its economy, real independence is economic independence. We need to stop expecting aid, need to develop a working relationship with India based on interdependency. Expand towards C,Asia and Turkey and have a working relationship with Iran and Iraq. If Chinese can do business with Japan and Saudis can do business with India why cant Pakistan do the same with India and Iran?

Gentleman, its time when we change our mindset and work for a Pakistan that puts its national interests before anything else.

Beggars are not choosers, they are told what to do.

 

[notorious_eagle]

To sum it all up, Pakistan needs to rely on herself more than relying on others. What needs to be done is that Pakistan should be strengthened internally, which will automatically translate into external strength. Pakistan needs to move away from this idea of becoming a vassal state for the stronger party; she needs to build herself up internally by creating good governance, sound economy, equitable distribution of wealth and justice for all. This is how you became a nation that is respected by all, not a nation that relies on free aid or soft loans for her survival. Respect is earned, not requested for.

 

[SQ8]

The question remain through, will that perception change?
With years of being drummed on the Pak-China friendship cry and the Islamic Brotherhood...neither the people nor their political leadership will be willing to give it up..even if the military wishes to do so.
What you have here is an indoctrinated populace who are about to have their most sacred of beliefs, next to religion itself being shattered. And when this does happen with public statements, the scapegoats will eventually be internal players.
You may see politicos denoucing the etablishment and vowing to repair relations with our "brethern" and allies.
You may see religious leadership blaming our "immoral" ways for the alienation..

What you will NOT see is a move to engage India beyond lip-service , or a move to establish relations with Israel.. or anything else.

Pakistan is about to return to its old days as the rogue state, except this time we wont have China covering our backs.
The word isolation is about to show its true meaning, and gloomy as it is. I see nothing else possible since you have a people that have to let go of sacred myths.. something that takes more than ten years.

 

[Jango]

A big problem with Pakistan is that we do not try to stand up on our own feet. We always need a country that plays godfather to us, and we expect that country to be our savior and our eternal and unconditional friend. Before it was the USA, now it is China. Later, it might be someone else.

We need to start working hard, working with determination and try to be self sufficient, rather than going to KSA for easy money (that has dried up now), to the US for easy weapons or China for soft loans and other free goodies. In international politics, there is nothing as free goodies, and every country takes care of itself, if that country sees Pakistan as a option in helping itself to glory, they will turn towards Pakistan for as much time they deem necessary. After that, it is good bye, and we get a sudden jolt of reality, and the the cycle begins again.

This thing happens everywhere in our life, a example that I have seen is person X making person Y his best pal and always under the arm. Because Y has a car and X needs some transportation. As soon as X also buys a car, Y gets discarded and thrown to the dogs.

The scenario Oscar painted is very gloomy without doubt. When China goes to become a superpower like US, it would most probably discard us, and we (collective society) would be left reeling from this jolt, just like a drunk man staggering in the dark, empty road.

The only way forward is self-reliance and hard work.

 

[Developereo]

While I agree with the gist of the OP -- and many of us have written similar thoughts right here -- I do believe it misses a crucial piece of the puzzle. The irony is that only a Pakistani writer, not an Indian, would have this blind spot.

Our role model here, to some extent, should be India. If we look at India, besides their economy, the one thing that they do markedly differently and infinitely better than Pakistan is grass roots diplomacy. When it comes to China, Indians are thinking twenty years ahead. They know that, sooner or later, China will become more democratic so they are busy forging bonds with the Chinese businessman and the Chinese student and the Chinese artist. This is exactly what India was doing in the 60s, 70s and 80s in the US while Pakistan was content rubbing shoulders with the Pentagon bigwigs.

The Pakistani mentality is very top down; the belief is that forging relations around the world is only the government's job or -- surreal concept in the OP -- the army's job. What are Pakistani artists, industrialists, and middle level businessmen doing to tap into the lucrative Chinese market? Are they leveraging our privileged relationship into a competitive advantage at the grass roots level? The answer, of course, is no. Much easier to blame it all on the incompetent government and the malicious army.

None of this is meant to replace what others have written above; economic strength is a sine qua non, but the role and responsibility of the private sector must also be emphasized.

 

[fatman17]

While I agree with the gist of the OP -- and many of us have written similar thoughts right here -- I do believe it misses a crucial piece of the puzzle. The irony is that only a Pakistani writer, not an Indian, would have this blind spot.

Our role model here, to some extent, should be India. If we look at India, besides their economy, the one thing that they do markedly differently and infinitely better than Pakistan is grass roots diplomacy. When it comes to China, Indians are thinking twenty years ahead. They know that, sooner or later, China will become more democratic so they are busy forging bonds with the Chinese businessman and the Chinese student and the Chinese artist. This is exactly what India was doing in the 60s, 70s and 80s in the US while Pakistan was content rubbing shoulders with the Pentagon bigwigs.

The Pakistani mentality is very top down; the belief is that forging relations around the world is only the government's job or -- surreal concept in the OP -- the army's job. What are Pakistani artists, industrialists, and middle level businessmen doing to tap into the lucrative Chinese market? Are they leveraging our privileged relationship into a competitive advantage at the grass roots level? The answer, of course, is no. Much easier to blame it all on the incompetent government and the malicious army.

None of this is meant to replace what others have written above; economic strength is a sine qua non, but the role and responsibility of the private sector must also be emphasized.

name the trading houses of pakistan of the 60's,70's. they were all 'nationalised'. they took their money and ran. so who was going to build these business relationships.?

The first blow came in April 2011 when China, in clear words, held the ‘safe havens’ in Pakistan responsible for the militant activities in their Xingiang province following the lead of the US

so this incident is going to 'derail' pakistan's relationship with china. is it so fragile?

 

[fatman17]

....and when the arab spring lands in the KSA and threatens the house of saud, who are they gonna call...........the US marines, the indian army to save their souls?.........right you guessed it.

realationships are not so shallow that one incident will derail 60 years of the same. the US/PK relationship has been a 'love-hate' relationship ever since 1947 but nevertheless both countries continue to work it through.

 

[Jango]

What are Pakistani artists, industrialists, and middle level businessmen doing to tap into the lucrative Chinese market? Are they leveraging our privileged relationship into a competitive advantage at the grass roots level? The answer, of course, is no. Much easier to blame it all on the incompetent government and the malicious army.

Although the contribution is small, but not non-existent, and has been increasing year by year. But it can only go to a certain extent.

The problem IMO in getting the private sector enter into China is China itself to some extent. What does Pakistan offer that China does not? It is quite the opposite, China offers everything to the world, and from a top of the line Iphone5 to a small cheap plastic toy for a little child, everything is Made In China, not only in Pak but also from US, Germany and UK to Burkina Faso.

Heck, we even import common pins from China (This comes back to the point, why can't we stop importing common pins? i.e self-reliance)

Some local cloth and other novelty items only go so far.

I agree with the rest of your post that private sector should be brought forward, but then WoT also comes into play, reducing the people to people contact and involvement of Chinese private sector into Pak.

 

[fatman17]

having said all the above....yes we need to put our house in order.