- Pakistan will know before the decision to attack goes from the highest to the lowest chain of command, thanks to our Human Intelligence network inside India.
- Pakistan has prepared a Warfare Doctrine of its own, which led to 5 military exercises for validation over the last 6 years. The name and details of that counter cold start doctrine are classified. My own opinion is that Pakistan would not only take defensive steps but would also attack and hold Indian territory in another sector.
- The location of a CSD inspired war has also been identified.
- Pakistan also holds an option to open up its dams and flood the area with water before Indian Army can mobilise there.
- CSD will not achieve anything for India as it has been projected by numerous studies. Its objective would be to give some cookies to the uber nationalist Hindu population who badly want a war with Pakistan.
infact my wife doubt if this doctrine ever existed. The whole thing is quite counter productive.
If i were to initiate an assault on somebody after an event, i would not say much other than i will strike you. But CSD did more than that. This is actually a formal battleplan.
A doctrine need to be clear, but also need to be ambigous so not to dictate the tactical thinking. But CSD would venture just that.
i would not want to comment on pakistani counter offensive. but i would just say if pakistan miltary actually did that then they are putting a risk on being an underhand
simply because of we assume Indian and Pakistani trooo quality is 1 to 1, then pakistan offensive will be less effective as India have more strategic death on their side and you can only launch an offensive or defensive one at a time but you cant possibly defense pakistan and strike into India the.same time. You will either need more troop.at hand or more time. Both of which is lacking.
I do not think use of Afghanistan's depth is possible or even envisioned. The reason for doing so is two-fold. First, India would not be invading Pakistan with an intention of occupying it.High Population of Pakistan means that Indian religious demographic stability would be undermined by occupation of Pakistan. It would be invading Pakistan with an intention of dividing it. Retreat to Afghanistan in this scenario would mean that India would walk into provincial capital or Baluchistan (Quetta), and declare it a new country. Second, Afghanistan has boundary dispute with Pakistan. It considers Khyber-Pakhtunwala and FATA of Pakistan ( in Short everything west of Indus) as part of Afghanistan.Afghanistan could be considered as a safe destination for regrouping only in initial stages. If war has progressed to such an extent that PA, need Afghanistan for regrouping, you could not be sure that Afghanistan would not join India in order to retrieve it's provinces.
Pakistan would use nukes before being pushed into such a position.While nuclear ceiling of Pakistan is not as low as fanboi on this site (including Administrator, see post above) imagine, it certainly would be lower than what conventional wisdom would suggest.
Regarding use of cities as fortress, i have serious doubt that IA would even enter them, if it is waging a limited war. In a limited war, India's primary aim would be to degrade military capability of PA for which entering in cities is not required and may even be counterproductive. IA may only occupy a Punjabi city as a psych-ops against Pakistani population.
BTW,I do not think that India would go to war with Pakistan without a credible BMD in place.
Cold start may have become a doctrine which is no longer followed. Cold start doctrine was formulated to negate the high mobilization time requirements by Indian Army. As Indian infrastructure is improving, mobilization time of Army is getting reduced.
Army chief gave a statement couple of months ago stating that now Indian army require less than a week to mobilize today, compared to 27 days it needed in 2001.
These developments may have rendered Cold start doctrine, redundant.
about the afghanistan thing, its jst an example what they cando beside fighting in a bloody urban warfare, it was never an option and i think i said that quite clear in my last post
About pakistan nuclear response, their threshold is low, but they will still try to fight it out until that too become impossible. That is a fine line to walk if India wanted a limited war with Pakistan
as for the city defence part, those are the only land that worth something or anything in an negotiation tabke which CSD originally intented, you will not strike Pakistan and try to attack rice paddy or rocky cave or any open ground, you would need to go for city in the end and being a short war, indian would have to enter the city and expel the defender as you cannot lay siege with less a than a week fighting
and finally, as i said. Old doctrine would still have their value, CSD is only a name, what it meant can be change, we saw doctrine got outdated and revised and updated for future usequite often
I have read somewhere that CSD was a response to the problems that we faced during Operation Parakram.That ops was
very sluggy and caused casualities .So they need to reduce the response time.
CSD is virtually impossible at current scenario .We cant be that sure about acomplete sweeping of possible 60km circle.And if we accidentially spare a single battery and if they managed to initiate a single launch it would be disaster.
Our former top official Shyam Saran was
cleared some misconception about our second strike capability.Be it small or Large our response would be a massive retaliation.
So a single Nasr can changeit in to a nuclear war .Pak Nasr batteries are completely under the control of local commanders.So a local commander can decide that fate.
I think the doctrine may slightly change due to the ever changing power equation.
Well we are talking about Indo Pak Border not Sino Indian border.There is a hell of difference between two borders.
We dont need that much of strategic lift capacity to deal with Pakistanis. Contrary to Sino border Pakistan has a lot of major important installation within the 100 km of LoC.
CSD is flawed as i mentioned time and again. The only good use of it is for deterrant factor only, its quite impractical as you said and quite counter productive
@jhungary
For this exercise, I think you can draw information our of the 1971 war which was based on similar objectives - had to be hard and fast before international pressure bore on India. That war was a two front war with territorialterritorial gains on both fronts and started and ended in 3 days.
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i th8nk the 1971 war is a bit different, the situation is more complicated and that was an liberation war instead of a general assault.
A better example should be 6 days war in 1967 for the israeli
They do have threshold low or they pretend to have it low to counter much bigger threat - that's my point.
they do have a low threashold and i can understand why. The threshold is more or less the same as the US in case of a fulk armour assault by soviet russia...
Its interesting to note that the Cold Start is still on the Pak radar.
The best way to counter a cold start or any other doctrine is what is highlighted above, why would 2 nations want to go to war ?
Here in an Indo Pak context we are faced with a unique situation where we have a nation whose Govt is not in control of what happens within its borders yet has to face the flak for what its ' non state ' actors do. Ironically , the ' actors' enjoy patronage of those tasked to defend the nation. This leads one to believe that the intent is on brinkmanship .
It would cost Pak a great deal less to control these so called fringe elements from striking India again.
A great deal of emphasis is laid on the Nasr Missile. Good, after all its been developed for a purpose so why not ?
Once a Nuke is used ( even within Pak territory) all bets are off. So long as this has been factored in Pak must use it.
The rivers in Pak flow North - South, its anybody's guess where the contamination shall flow. The idea of having a dam / barrage full of contaminated water that has to flow downstream is something I assume Pak planners have also factored in.
Like the old adage goes 'precaution is better than cure", and there has not yet been a cure for the likes of Chernobyl.
Not the right example to quote or draw lessons from.
Everything was different back then.
i avoided talking about the effectiveness of nuclear NASR missile, that would be a whole other can of worm if we open that discussion
For the Nasr, i would only go so far and say they are definitely not a game changer, regardless if Indian can perform a complete swept.
To be called a game changer, they have to either completly able to stop or at least have your enemy alter their plan. Thing is Indian would not deviate the plan any ev3n if they were hit by nuclear missile, i.fact what we taught in the military is situation can change yet the fight is still on. Even if that mean your certain death