There's evidently plenty of reason to question whether the appointment of Gen. David Petraeus to head the C.I.A. will lead to closer Pakistani-U.S. cooperation. Despite numerous meetings between Generals Kayani and Petraeus relations are described as "
cool" at best-
Move To C.I.A. Puts Petraeus In Conflict With Pakistan-NYT April 28, 2011
Now, in truth, none of us actually know what's said nor the manner in which views are aired between these two men when they meet. Still the recent comments by CJCS Adm. Mike Mullen, normally a reticent and carefully-controlled public speaker, serve as another indication that the working relationship between the leadership chain within both countries is quickly fraying.
The above article contends that Kayani's disdain for Petraeus is widely known. I don't know but this may be true. Both Jane Perlez and Eric Schmitt are seasoned professional journalists with long experience inside Pakistan. If correct, it'll be an interesting mix brought on board by President Obama.
Petraeus and Ryan Crocker have a long and successful relationship reaching back to the "
Awakening" in Iraq. There they formed a formidable team. Panetta's experience working with the ISI certainly provides insight into Pakistani military concerns. However, that perspective will pale amidst his expanding portfolio of oversight across a wide range of global U.S. military interests. How Allen fits into the mix yet isn't fully clear to me. He's certainly well-qualified based upon his service record. However he was selected over my preferred candidate, U.S. Army General David Rodriguez, whose experience in Afghanistan exceeds every senior U.S. military commander.
Crocker, in my view, will be expected to repair the discord that's existed between Karzai and Crocker's predecessor, Karl Eikenberry. That'll prove a plateful. Karzai's mercurial nature makes problematic the prospects for any stable relationship.
Crocker will also be looked to help massage Afghan-Pakistani discussions. His experience as a former ambassador to Pakistan might be helpful there. Despite the recent news of a Pakistani-Afghan rapproachment, however, there's a long, long road to travel overcoming mutual suspicions. America's worsening relations with Pakistan will likely create further roadblocks to achieving any meaningful reconciliation. So too efforts by Pakistan to create division within the American-Afghan relationship.
Which brings us full-circle to Petraeus and Kayani. Bridging the tit-for-tat acrimony that defines the current U.S.-Pakistan discord is the challenge here. I'm dubious such can be done to mutual satisfaction as so much is dependant upon Pakistan's strategic perspective. I don't sense much flexibility there. As such, it's therefore unlikely there'll be much positive movement on Pakistani military operations in FATAville anytime soon. Without such, there's little liklihood that U.S. drone operations will diminish or cease.
In the end it may matter very little the nature of any relationship between Petraeus and Kayani if events have actually moved beyond perceived levels of personal rapport. I suspect they have. The continuing downward slide in U.S.-Pakistani relations appears inexorible IMV.
