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Chinese Navy (PLAN) News & Discussions

Japan does not have an interventionist policy nor do we have multitude of overseas bases. We have no design to play a role of 'global police' or such. It does not serve our interest to commit such resources --- nevertheless, the size of our navy is proportional to our maritime domain. Japan is a vast Archipelago --- We have over 6,500 islands (all but 400 are inhabited), we have a vast maritime area of 4,479,358 square miles ! Hence we will, naturally, have a sizeable navy.

The Reason why JMSDF used Izumo is becuase they play them like a logistic and C2 ship. Where as japanese pacifist stance would preclude JMSDF in any offejsive operation, why would the Izumo need a well deck?

In case of a war, Izumo or the like will he tasked with interdiction mission and support and reinforcement action, JMSDF dont need over-the-horitzon troop deployment capability, i mean they are not gonna need that to assault their own island. What the japanese uses for Izumo would just be sending a quick reaction force over the trouble area and uses their helicopter to resupply beseiged garrison.

While as PLAN have a different set of goal, their point heing global power projection and they would need OTH ability to assault an enemy island far away (thats to project power) and for that they qould jeed a full fledge LPD for their job.

There are not much of a point getting a LHD or LHA class ship unless you have naval interdiction ability, alas a fleet carrier
 
While as PLAN have a different set of goal, their point heing global power projection and they would need OTH ability to assault an enemy island far away (thats to project power) and for that they qould jeed a full fledge LPD for their job.

There are not much of a point getting a LHD or LHA class ship unless you have naval interdiction ability, alas a fleet carrier

Not necessary. That will depend on the war scenario and type of enemies you engage. If for example , you are going to land a battalion to take out Somalia insurgent holding your hostage. Do you really need a CV or 1-2 LHD supported by DDG pack with LRSM? This kind of low intensity warfare do not need massive firepower CV provided to get the job done.
 
Not necessary. That will depend on the war scenario and type of enemies you engage. If for example , you are going to land a battalion to take out Somalia insurgent holding your hostage. Do you really need a CV or 1-2 LHD supported by DDG pack with LRSM? This kind of low intensity warfare do not need massive firepower CV provided to get the job done.

Well, i am talking about all possibility, not just a shoot and scoop missions...

PLAN have plan for all ops, hence they may require a LHD or LPD, that does not mean they do need it for everything.

But on the other hand JMSDF mission is to secure their own soil, since there are no force projection involved, they dont need OTH assault capabilities, then why would they get a LHD?
 
I haven't really read the thread far back enough to understand what this argument is all about, but taking your post at face value:

1) Can the US survive without China? Yes. Our MNCs will simply relocate their manufacturing operations to other low-cost countries, or bring manufacturing back home (newly competitive with extremely low energy costs, increased robotics, and 3D printing). In addition, exports only comprise 14 percent of US GDP, and we run a severe trade deficit with China. In a sense, that means a disruption of trade with China would help our GDP from a purely mathematical point of view.

2) Does the US want China to collapse? Absolutely not, and there's a reason why the populists always call for China to be sanctioned for currency manipulation or IP theft, but the elites never do anything about it. That's because there is still a lot of money to be made by trading with China. As with #1, we could survive without China, but there is a difference between surviving and thriving. I choose thriving, thank you very much. Remember, we prefer to measure per capita GDP in PPP because it accounts for cost of living, and cheap imports from China reduce the cost of living. We might be able to pay more for more expensive alternatives, but the market has spoken: when given a choice, outside of a thin sliver of the elite, consumers prefer to pay less at a slight cost to quality, rather than pay more for higher quality. That's China's forte. If it weren't so, Japan would be the factory of the world, not China.

3) China is currently difficult to replace (i.e. why haven't we already moved manufacturing elsewhere?) for three reasons:

a) China has a disregard for human rights not found elsewhere. Chinese labor can be worked for longer, at lower wages, and at a scale that cannot be replicated. Good luck working Indonesian labor in the toxic conditions in which Chinese labor works, living in dorms so they can be summoned to the factor floor in a moment's notice. Not going to happen without riots. Incidentally, this is also the reason why manufacturing hasn't already transferred back to the US, since all of our other advantages (cheap energy, relatively good infrastructure, rule of law, proximity to the home market, etc.) would make us more attractive than China. But labor is a big issue, and until labor can be sufficiently replaced by robotics, it will remain China's ultimate weapon.

b) China has already built the manufacturing ecosystem (factories, suppliers, electrical grid, transport infrastructure) to make it an efficient manufacturing hub. The costs are sunk. To replicate this environment will take much investment and time. It can be done, but why spend the money if we have access to China?

c) China has a huge population and a huge economy in its own right, now. Why sacrifice the profits that this market can provide for the sake of non-allies (e.g. Vietnam) or resentful/non-dependable allies who won't even spend for their own defense (e.g. the Philippines)?

To the 30 years comment: no one knows what the world will look like in 30 years, so let's not waste time bragging about the size of our crystal balls.
The US and other countries companies cannot just get out of China like that. Not only because of the ecosystem, potential market and the low cost but also because of the skills that are in China. Most of the lower end manufactures for export like those making t-shirts and handbags or doing assembly work have already left. But the more skilled work involving electronics and heavy machinery just can't pick up their things and leave. Where are they going to go ? Neither India or ASEAN at this point have the skilled labor force that is needed for the higher end production that China is doing.

The working conditions in China is no better or worse than in other developing nations like Indonesia or Vietnam. So singling out China for bad working conditions is either dishonest or you are just ignorent about the facts. And factory workers in China make more money than most of their counterparts in ASEAN and India.

You are also maybe unaware of the fact that China has the highest growth rate in the world in terms of the use of 3D printing and automation in production. The manufacturing industry in China is going through thorough changes. Your idea's about China being just a off shore base for cheap labor is outdated.

And the idea that China the world's largest trading nation, the world's largest manufacturer, the world's largest exporter, the world's largest economy by PPP, the second largest economy by nominal exchange rate and the world's second largest importer can just be cut out of the global economy without consequences is just ludacris. You can't cut China out of the global economy just like you can't cut Japan, Europe or the US out of the world economy.

And manufacturing going back to the US ? If companies are going to leave China over cost are they then going to go to the US with even higher costs ? The cheap energy (fracking) is a scam another bubble like the dotcoms of the 1990's. Why ? Because there is no profits in fracking.

Shale Drillers Feast on Junk Debt to Stay on Treadmill - Bloomberg Business

And remenber this is when oil prices was over $100 a barrel.
 
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But the more skilled work involving electronics and heavy machinery just can't pick up their things and leave. Where are they going to go ? Neither India or ASEAN at this point have the skilled labor force that is needed for the higher end production that China is doing.

Tell me, how did China end up manufacturing these items in the first place?

The working conditions in China is no better or worse than in other developing nations like Indonesia or Vietnam. So singling out China for bad working conditions is either dishonest or you are just ignorent about the facts. And factory workers in China make more money than most of their counterparts in ASEAN and India.

Agreed, the working conditions in Indonesia and Vietnam are likely to be just as bad as those in China. The difference, as I pointed out, is the scale. And as you have already observed, China is no longer the low-cost option, at least from the labor perspective.

https://www.bnymellon.com/_global-a...anufacturing-the-end-of-chinas-golden-age.pdf

Labor Costs.png


You are also maybe unaware of the fact that China has the highest growth rate in the world in terms of the use of 3D printing and automation in production. The manufacturing industry in China is going through thorough changes. Your idea's about China being just a off shore base for cheap labor is outdated.

Why would an American MNC choose to 3D print its products in China and then ship them back to the US, when it could 3D print those products in the US? You have yet to explain this.

And the idea that China the world's largest trading nation, the world's largest manufacturer, the world's largest exporter, the world's largest economy by PPP, the second largest economy by nominal exchange rate and the world's second largest importer can just be cut out of the global economy without consequences is just ludacris. You can't cut China out of the global economy just like you can't cut Japan, Europe or the US out of the world economy.

No one claimed that China can be cut out without consequences. Straw man arguments don't work with me.

And manufacturing going back to the US ? If companies are going to leave China over cost are they then going to go to the US with even higher costs ?

From the same KPMG report:

Reshoring.png

On the contrary, it is you who have outdated views of the US, not the other way around:

bcg.perspectives - The Shifting Economics of Global Manufacturing

Shifting-Economics-Glb-Mfg-ex1_inline_tcm80-167414.png


Under Pressure. Several economies that traditionally have been regarded as low-cost manufacturing bases appear to be under pressure as a result of a combination of factors that have significantly eroded their cost advantages since 2004. For example, at the factory gate, China’s estimated manufacturing-cost advantage over the U.S. has shrunk to less than 5 percent.

Shifting-Economics-Glb-Mfg-ex2_inline_tcm80-167418.png


China is no longer the undisputed manufacturing champion. Congratulations! You've caught up to the US in manufacturing cost.

If MNCs continue to manufacture in China, it will be to satisfy China's domestic consumption, not for export. That means China will no longer be able to play its mercantilist games.

Have a look at this chart:

62011.png


What this means is that by 2011 (the latest I could find), approximately 71% of the American trade deficit was due to American MNCs outsourcing production abroad, and then importing the products back to the US. That means that when MNCs see better alternatives for manufacturing, they will move away from China. Let's be clear about this: China doesn't control trade with the US, or have any leverage over trade with the US, because it is American MNCs that are responsible for the level of trade between China and the US. If American MNCs leave, Chinese companies are not positioned to fill the export void, because America is largely not exporting purely Chinese (made by Chinese company, soruced by Chinese company) products.


The cheap energy (fracking) is a scam another bubble like the dotcoms of the 1990's. Why ? Because there is no profits in fracking.

Shale Drillers Feast on Junk Debt to Stay on Treadmill - Bloomberg Business

And remenber this is when oil prices was over $100 a barrel.

Even if we take your laughable claim that fracking is a scam at face value, let's not forget the bigger picture: oil prices have been decimated. So whatever cost advantage we've lost in fracking has been more than compensated by the fall in oil prices.

It's important to recognize reality, and realize that what has been will not necessarily always be, and China's golden age as factory of the world is coming to a close. China is already realigning its economy in recognition of this transition, so it's unclear why you are so defensive about this. I will give you the final word, since this discussion is OT to this thread.
 
Japan is a paper tiger. The primary weakness of the JMSDF is lack of offensive power. Surface ships look good on paper but have no Tomahawk. Helicopter carriers look impressive but have no offensive attack aircraft of any kind. Diesel-electric submarines are slow and have limited range. Japan has no nuclear submarine program at all. You can't win a war with defense only. Thus the JMSDF is nothing more than a support navy for daddy USN.
it will change if USA unleash the chains. Japan can do much better without USA restriction. Japan can't defeat China only by navy, China has much stronger integrated fire power than Japan could image. that's that they always try to get USA involved to balance the inequity.

when China is strong, Japan can't pose threat to China.
 
Tell me, how did China end up manufacturing these items in the first place?

China began low end manufacturing for foreign companies in the 1980's and was able to move steadily up the value chain over the years. China has build up a wealth of experience, infrastructure and skills over the years. Those can't be replicated so easily. Especially when China today is moving beyond manufacturing for other companies and is beginning to build her own companies, brands and technology. China today is the world's second largest investor in R&D after the US. China is able to rapidly move up the value chain and do more higher end works not just for foreign companies but also for its own domestic brands. Over the years China has been able to acumulate foreign capital through trade surplusses, FDI, remittences, hot money inflows and the large pool of domestic savings. All this money has then been re-invested in infrastructure, education, science and technology over the past 3 decades. Other countries could do the same but likely not on the scale of China.

Agreed, the working conditions in Indonesia and Vietnam are likely to be just as bad as those in China. The difference, as I pointed out, is the scale. And as you have already observed, China is no longer the low-cost option, at least from the labor perspective.

https://www.bnymellon.com/_global-a...anufacturing-the-end-of-chinas-golden-age.pdf

View attachment 193904

China is no longer competitive when it comes to labor cost so it has to compete in other ways like better infrastructure, extensive ecosystems, better educated and trained work force and automation. Also the use of new technologies like 3D printing. All this is to help of set the higher cost of labor and land and the stricter environmental laws. The lower end work for export will leave China but when it comes to the mid to higher end work China will remain competitive.

Why would an American MNC choose to 3D print its products in China and then ship them back to the US, when it could 3D print those products in the US? You have yet to explain this.

One word cost. China is not yet as advanced as the US in 3D printing but both on scale and technology it is closing the gap. And when China comes close enough people will choose the lower costing Chinese goods over the more expensive American ones.

From the same KPMG report:

View attachment 193905
On the contrary, it is you who have outdated views of the US, not the other way around:

bcg.perspectives - The Shifting Economics of Global Manufacturing

Shifting-Economics-Glb-Mfg-ex1_inline_tcm80-167414.png


Under Pressure. Several economies that traditionally have been regarded as low-cost manufacturing bases appear to be under pressure as a result of a combination of factors that have significantly eroded their cost advantages since 2004. For example, at the factory gate, China’s estimated manufacturing-cost advantage over the U.S. has shrunk to less than 5 percent.

Shifting-Economics-Glb-Mfg-ex2_inline_tcm80-167418.png


China is no longer the undisputed manufacturing champion. Congratulations! You've caught up to the US in manufacturing cost.

If MNCs continue to manufacture in China, it will be to satisfy China's domestic consumption, not for export. That means China will no longer be able to play its mercantilist games.

Have a look at this chart:

62011.png


What this means is that by 2011 (the latest I could find), approximately 71% of the American trade deficit was due to American MNCs outsourcing production abroad, and then importing the products back to the US. That means that when MNCs see better alternatives for manufacturing, they will move away from China. Let's be clear about this: China doesn't control trade with the US, or have any leverage over trade with the US, because it is American MNCs that are responsible for the level of trade between China and the US. If American MNCs leave, Chinese companies are not positioned to fill the export void, because America is largely not exporting purely Chinese (made by Chinese company, soruced by Chinese company) products.

So what ? MNC is only part of the picture. Overall US trade deficit remains high despite the fall in energy imports.

Even if we take your laughable claim that fracking is a scam at face value, let's not forget the bigger picture: oil prices have been decimated. So whatever cost advantage we've lost in fracking has been more than compensated by the fall in oil prices.

That's not a advantage to the US alone because everyone else in the world is benefitting from the same low energy prices. But in the meantime the US has to grapple with a fracking industry that is losing more money by the day with these new low energy prices. And if fracking is a sustainable and profitable industry then why so much junk bonds ?

It's important to recognize reality, and realize that what has been will not necessarily always be, and China's golden age as factory of the world is coming to a close. China is already realigning its economy in recognition of this transition, so it's unclear why you are so defensive about this. I will give you the final word, since this discussion is OT to this thread.

That is only true for the lower end manufacturing but when you move higher up the value chain then the story is different. Just look at China's trade surplusses. If what you say is true than China's trade surplus should be shrinking but instead its growing. And look at the chart below.

ChinaUSTrade11.png
 
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it will change if USA unleash the chains. Japan can do much better without USA restriction. Japan can't defeat China only by navy, China has much stronger integrated fire power than Japan could image. that's that they always try to get USA involved to balance the inequity.

when China is strong, Japan can't pose threat to China.

Japan is only as strong as what the US is willing to sell to them. However, Japan has no equivalent to the 001A, 002, 055, and 095. All of these classes of ship are under development.

001A is being built right now.

Fresh reports circulate on China's second aircraft carrier| Reuters
 
The US and other countries companies cannot just get out of China like that. Not only because of the ecosystem, potential market and the low cost but also because of the skills that are in China. Most of the lower end manufactures for export like those making t-shirts and handbags or doing assembly work have already left. But the more skilled work involving electronics and heavy machinery just can't pick up their things and leave. Where are they going to go ? Neither India or ASEAN at this point have the skilled labor force that is needed for the higher end production that China is doing.

The working conditions in China is no better or worse than in other developing nations like Indonesia or Vietnam. So singling out China for bad working conditions is either dishonest or you are just ignorent about the facts. And factory workers in China make more money than most of their counterparts in ASEAN and India.

You are also maybe unaware of the fact that China has the highest growth rate in the world in terms of the use of 3D printing and automation in production. The manufacturing industry in China is going through thorough changes. Your idea's about China being just a off shore base for cheap labor is outdated.

And the idea that China the world's largest trading nation, the world's largest manufacturer, the world's largest exporter, the world's largest economy by PPP, the second largest economy by nominal exchange rate and the world's second largest importer can just be cut out of the global economy without consequences is just ludacris. You can't cut China out of the global economy just like you can't cut Japan, Europe or the US out of the world economy.

And manufacturing going back to the US ? If companies are going to leave China over cost are they then going to go to the US with even higher costs ? The cheap energy (fracking) is a scam another bubble like the dotcoms of the 1990's. Why ? Because there is no profits in fracking.

Shale Drillers Feast on Junk Debt to Stay on Treadmill - Bloomberg Business

And remenber this is when oil prices was over $100 a barrel.

Without China, the US economy will collapse as the US needs China to absorb all the printed dollars that are exported to keep US inflation low.

China pretty much props up the entire US economy through its savings and the PBOC yuan-dollar peg.

Without China the US is so screwed they don't even know it.
 
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