Taiwan has lost ground because of Pelosi's visit
Chinese military exercises have changed the status quo in its favor
asia.nikkei.com
Taiwan has lost ground because of Pelosi's visit
Chinese military exercises have changed the status quo in its favor
asia.nikkei.com
Taiwan has lost ground because of Pelosi's visit
Chinese military exercises have changed the status quo in its favorDave Sharma
August 14, 2022 05:00 JST
Nearly 50 years ago, Egypt held a series of large-scale military exercises along the frontier separating its forces from those of Israel, much in the way China drilled its air and sea forces last week around Taiwan's waters and airspace.
During two of the six Egyptian maneuvers, Israel was sufficiently concerned that Cairo might be mounting a genuine military operation that it mobilized its defense forces at great expense, only to subsequently stand them down.
On Oct. 6, 1973, corresponding to the holiest day of the Jewish calendar, Egyptian forces went further, crossing the Suez Canal separating them from the Israelis and breaching their defensive fortifications.
The ensuing Yom Kippur War remains Israel's worst military disaster. Though it eventually turned the tide of the war, the invasion stunned the country and resulted in significant casualties and losses of equipment.
Asked afterward why he had not mobilized Israel's forces in October, then-Defense Minister Moshe Dayan referred to the great cost incurred in the two earlier mobilizations that turned out to be unnecessary. In essence, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat had succeeded in normalizing high-intensity military operations along the de facto border to the extent that when he eventually chose to strike, it came as a surprise.
The People's Liberation Army is now engaged in the same type of preparations with respect to Taiwan. China has exploited the visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to normalize military activity across the Taiwan Strait.
Plans for these exercises, which clearly had been prepared and on the shelf for some time, needed some sort of provocation to justify putting them into action. Pelosi's poorly conceived stopover provided exactly this.
During the initial four days of PLA live-fire exercises in six areas around Taiwan's perimeter, 41 Chinese vessels and 110 aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, according to the island's defense ministry. Eleven ballistic missiles were fired into waters north, east and south of Taiwan.
The drills were due to end on Aug. 7, but the next day, the PLA announced it would continue to conduct live-fire combat joint exercises and training in the waters and airspace around Taiwan before finally calling them to an end on Aug. 10.
The exercises serve valuable military purposes for the PLA: increasing preparedness, improving interoperability among air and sea forces and providing lessons for future operations across the Taiwan Strait.
They also serve a strategic purpose by effectively obliterating the median line across the Taiwan Strait that served as an unofficial buffer zone between the two militaries for decades. The status quo has been altered and in a way unfavorable to Taiwan.
It is quite likely that the PLA will now operate with greater frequency and intensity across the median line. This will impose continued stress on Taiwan's military readiness and preparedness and put sustained psychological pressure on Taiwan's leadership and civilian population.
Just as Sadat stepped up the frequency of Egyptian exercises adjacent to the Suez Canal to dull the senses and responsiveness of Israel before launching a genuine attack, China will now be in a position to do the same.
An attack remains unlikely in the near term, but last week's developments have shortened the time horizon for potential Chinese military action against Taiwan and lessened the warning that can be expected of such an attack.
The exercises have also provided a vivid demonstration of the PLA's capability to operate militarily up to and beyond the first island chain -- the line of western Pacific islands that hems in China from Japan to Borneo -- and to engage successfully in anti-access and area-denial operations, both of which would be critical to any future aggression against Taiwan.
The maneuvers have also demonstrated the relative ease with which the PLA could impose a blockade around Taiwan and cut it off from the outside world. Indeed, any forcible attempt by China to take Taiwan is likely to start with a military blockade that seeks to force the island to negotiate some form of unification, to which Taiwan and its allies must acquiesce or seek to break through.
The analytical question posed by Pelosi's trip is whether Taiwan has been left stronger or weaker as a result.
Her visit, the most senior by a U.S. lawmaker since Newt Gingrich traveled to the island as House speaker in 1997, was an attempt by Pelosi, seemingly without Biden administration support, to alter the political status quo in favor of Taiwan.
But China's response has succeeded in altering the status quo in a way deeply unfavorable to the island. At this stage, the conclusion would have to be that Taiwan has emerged in a more precarious position due to Pelosi's visit.
Any slight gain in international legitimacy afforded by her stopover has been more than outweighed by China establishing a new military norm across the Taiwan Strait -- largely without challenge -- to the detriment of Taiwan's strategic position.
When China last conducted exercises of this intensity across the Taiwan Strait in 1995, the U.S. military sent an aircraft carrier battle group through the Taiwan Strait. This time, no such decisive response has been forthcoming.
The U.S. and its allies need to be more careful in the future. Taiwan's unique position within the international system is fragile and is dependent on ambiguity. Thoughtful strategy, and Taiwan's survival, demand that such ambiguity be preserved.
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