Chinese city the size of New York predicts 27 per cent birth rate drop

[Hamartia Antidote]

That is the core problem. Too little reward for child raising family. Children are not a future investment anymore. There are many people abandon their parents. This happen to Western countries, and now started to reach East Asian societies.

That's why in order to people want to reproduce again, the Government needs to make a law that taking care of the parents are responsible of their own children, by law. Children who neglected their parents will have to face law.

I think being busy taking care of your parents would impact negatively the time taken towards your own kids.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

East Asians tend to have low TFRs.

Reasons I can think of:

1) Irreligiosity
2) Huge amount of resources spent on kids, especially on education
3) Virtually non-existent out-of-wedlock births.

Hmm..well #2 was basically what I was alluding to as it is the main issue in the US.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Subsidization rises with the income to avoid poor families get too much

Hey wasn't rich landowners one of Mao's main pet peeves?
You trying to get another revolution or something by favoring the well-off?

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Maybe have a "four child policy" imposed on all university graduates. Sort of "four by forty". Any graduate who does not have four kids by 40 is inflicted with extra tax. This would address increase in population and serve to sustain quality.

But then if uneducated family get incentive for having kids, then we will have a baby factory producing lower quality citizen.

 

[Song Hong]

I do not advocate that.

But one need to beware of western style welfare. Junkie and criminals can just make love and make love, doing nothing at home, producing a lot of baby. For one baby parent get few hundreds more Euro.

Maybe have a "four child policy" imposed on all university graduates. Sort of "four by forty". Any graduate who does not have four kids by 40 is inflicted with extra tax. This would address increase in population and serve to sustain quality.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

But one need to beware of western style welfare. Junkie and criminals can just make love and make love, doing nothing at home, producing a lot of baby. For one baby parent get few hundreds more Euro.

This would only apply to university graduates thus guard against riff raff reproducing like rats. This issue you touch about Western countries also applies to Muslim countries where filth produces more filth causing the national genepool to deteriorate.

 

[Song Hong]

All country need productive, law abiding citizens. Any policies that allows identity politics to prevail is a failed policy.

You do not pay someone everything in their life, and in the end those people want you dead and call you racists.

This would only apply to university graduates thus guard against riff raff reproducing like rats. This issue you touch about Western countries also applies to Muslim countries where filth produces more filth causing the national genepool to deteriorate.

 

[tower9]

Just scrap the two child policy ... don't know why they still have any form of birth control/family planning around with these ridiculously low birth rates anyway.

The one child policy should've been scrapped by the 90s. The two child policy is just utterly stupid.

 

[CrazyZ]

East Asia, Europe, the America's (to a lesser degree), India, Bangladesh will all face demographic decline in the near future.

 

[scherz]

China needs a children production factory, where genes were detained from academic working classes to produce synthetically babies - an army of high potential humans.

 

[CrazyZ]

China needs a children production factory, where genes were detained from academic working classes to produce synthetically babies - an army of high potential humans.

Currently natural production of humans is the most efficient and cost effective to society. Cloning is very inefficient. Most cloned embryos fail at much higher rate then the natural approach. In vitro fertilization is costly and still requires a human womb.

Maybe have a "four child policy" imposed on all university graduates. Sort of "four by forty". Any graduate who does not have four kids by 40 is inflicted with extra tax. This would address increase in population and serve to sustain quality.

Germans in WW2 began looking into stimulating twin births to deal with their war losses. If we look at other mammals, having multiple puppies in one litter is very common and great for population expansion.

 

[Mista]

Just scrap the two child policy ... don't know why they still have any form of birth control/family planning around with these ridiculously low birth rates anyway.

The one child policy should've been scrapped by the 90s. The two child policy is just utterly stupid.

They should have adopted a two-child policy instead of a one-child policy, and scrap it in the 90s when TFR fell below replacement level.

Just years ago Chinese demographers still believe that their TFR would jump to 4.4 if they if adopt a two-child policy, or almost twice of India's TFR today lol.

2014年之所以只实行单独二孩政策,是因为主流人口学家预测,如果全面放开二孩,生育率将反弹到4.4、4.5,每年将出生4700万、4995万人;即便实行单独二孩政策,生育率也将反弹到2.4。于是十八届三中全会决定先实行单独二孩。当时国家卫计委预测,生育率将反弹到1.8以上。2015年是单独二孩出生高峰年,“小普查”证实生育率只有1.05,而不是1.8,更不是2.4。易富贤感叹,“中国人口政策的智库体系存在‘致命’的缺陷”。

2016年之所以只实行全面二孩政策,是因为国家卫计委在2015年预测,实行全面二孩政策后,2016年、2017年、2018年的生育率将达到1.63、2.0、2.1,到2050年还有1.72。但是2016年的年度抽样调查显示,生育率只有1.24;2017年的出生人数比2016年还少3.5%,那么生育率只有1.2左右,不是2.0,更不是4.4。

但实际上，中国人口政策一直被严重高估的预测所误导。比如，宋健在1980年的百年人口预测报告认为：如果不实行计划生育，中国人口会在2050达到40亿。又如，2000年人口普查数据显示当年生育率仅有1.22，但把大幅调高后的1.8作为人口政策的基本依据达10年之久；权威的《中国人口发展报告2011/12》预测全面放开二胎后的头几年，生育率会大幅反弹到4.4以上；而中国人口学会会长翟振武则预测年出生人口峰值会达到4950万等等。有一点可以肯定，官方从未警示过中国面临低生育率危机。

最近中国社科院发布《经济蓝皮书》，副院长蔡昉呼吁尽快向“全面放开二孩”政策过渡。看来蔡昉的观点发生了巨变。
2012年他领衔完成的《中国人口发展报告2011/12》，预测全面二孩，生育率（孩子/妇女）会反弹到4.4，每年出生4700万；单独二孩，生育率也会达2.4。因此反对全面二孩。

蔡昉是中国社科院副院长，翟振武是中国人口学会会长。从单独二孩实践可看出中国智库体系存在致命缺陷，滞后于美国上百年。学者揣磨领导意图、进行“科学诠释”，根据“政治”而不是“学术”下结论；久之，既丧失了承认、说出真相的勇气，又丧失了“科学论证”的能力。

比如中国的生育率在1990年后就低于更替水平，2000年普查显示只1.22，说明至少在1990年后就应停止计划生育。而即便1980年、2005年就停止计划生育，人口也达不到16亿、15亿。我在2004年判断，停止计划生育后“生育率只能达1.8、1.9”，提出“不停止计划生育，中国还在等什么？”。但是2004年顾宝昌、翟振武等人口学家的《关于调整我国生育政策的建议》，认为2000年出生1771万，将生育率修改为1.6；其实2000年普查0岁人口只1370万，2010年普查10岁人口只1445万，2013年初二、初三学生平均只1472万。他们预测全面放开二孩，人口将达16.07亿；建议采取为期15年的过渡方案，到2020年全面二孩，生育率能稳定在2.0，总人口会达14.7亿。主观上，他们在推动政策调整；客观上，仍是“人口恐吓”。

十八届三中全会后人口政策能“动”起来，说明决策层有政治勇气；之所以只实行单独二孩，是因为蔡昉、翟振武课题组预测：全面二孩，每年将出生4700万、4995万，将超“15亿人口上限”。面对这种恐吓，即便秦皇、汉帝再世也不敢停止计划生育！

翟振武2014年3月在《人口研究》上还坚持说全面二孩后每年出生4995万，但11月在《国家行政学院学报》上又改口说只会出生3100-3850万。蔡昉现在改口说全面二孩甚至更大幅度调整，生育率只能达1.94（出生2000万）。他们的观点可以变来变去，但每年损失的数百万人命能复活？我与主流人口学家没有私仇，只有公愤！

点评中国： 从单独二孩实践看中国人口决策的缺陷

最近中国社科院发布《经济蓝皮书》，副院长蔡昉呼吁尽快向“全面放开二孩”政策过渡。看来蔡昉的观点发生了巨变。

www.bbc.com

Or maybe they are fake dumb, to protect their own interest.

卫计委为了自己乌纱帽一直虚报生育率，危言耸听，预测生育率还能比印度高一倍呢。

中国1990年生育率就降到更替水平以下了，现在已经过去30年了，人口结构已经变得不能再畸形了，只要再过些年，老人大批死去，也就是中国人口崩盘的时候了。

计生委之前一直靠计划生育赚钱，超生罚款都进了他们的荷包，不用上缴中央，自然是要欺瞒上级和民众来让自己赚黑心钱。而且要是全面放开计划生育想怎么生就怎么生，他们的权力不就没了吗？中央和民众被这些人蒙蔽了十多年，而现在他们还想阻止全面放开

以及

近几年曝光了美国上世纪七八十年代利用中国重返联合国契机，推动中国实行“种族颠覆政策”。
基辛格在上个世纪七八十年代鼓动联合国旗下诸多基金会资助中国境内人口计生课题，从而影响中国计生政策三十年，基辛格接受CNN采访的视频，他肯定的回应主持人说，中国在21世纪不会取代美国的全球霸主地位，因为中国人口规模本世纪内将急剧缩水，以及相伴而来的老龄化社会。

中国恐怕要步日本后尘了，而很多民众到现在都没意识到接下来十年到二十年我们要面对的是什么级别的危机。计生委和外国ngo把中央都忽悠瘸了，人口现状成了现在这样，以后还拿什么超美？

恕我直言，中国的中央除了发展经济和科学技术的部门，其他部门频频搞出nc操作，中央还被忽悠的不轻。

 

[Brainsucker]

I think being busy taking care of your parents would impact negatively the time taken towards your own kids.

In a sense, yes. But not necessarily true. Traditional cultures in Asia (like in Indonesia) still do it. Plus, your parents can also act as your children's educator and babysitters. Unless they're bedridden or invalid. But, as long as you're not the only child, the responsibility can be shared between children.

This way will encourage people to have more than one kids.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Is abortion very common in China today? I see estimates ~ 9.6 million/year now @ http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/policy/abortion/ab-prchina.html

 

[Feng Leng]

Or maybe they are fake dumb, to protect their own interest.

Almost everybody in the PRC above the age of 50 is a moron.

Is abortion very common in China today? I see estimates ~ 9.6 million/year now @ http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/policy/abortion/ab-prchina.html

Abortion is not that common. Many couples choose a flash marriage instead of having an abortion.