China's navy no longer so inferior to Japan's, experts say

[Edison Chen]

China's loss of the first Sino-Japanese war has been attributed to a disorganised navy. Although the northern fleet equalled, some say exceeded, the Meiji navy in terms of firepower, it was annihilated because it lacked coordination among its military units.

In sheer manpower, China has the upper hand, with Beijing putting the PLA Navy's strength at 235,000, or more than five times the number in the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force.

But the Japanese navy has being training with modern warfare strategies, and with different units, for decades, according to Macau-based military expert Antony Wong Dong.

"PLA units are still exploring new ways to operate jointly, which could lead to merging their different weapon systems together," Wong said.

Toshi Yoshihara, an associate professor at the US Naval War College, said that although the Japanese navy was still superior in technological sophistication and experience, China was catching up quickly.

"China is out-building Japan virtually across the board," Yoshihara said.

He said the PLA Navy was deploying modern destroyers, frigates, fast-attack craft and submarines. "Japan is already having trouble keeping pace with this level of Chinese output."

As so many Chinese warships had entered production, adding mass and balance on the fleet, Japan could no longer rely on its qualitative advantage, Yoshihara said.

But a deciding factor would be the support of the US Navy. "The US-Japanese alliance is essential to weighing the overall naval balance," he said.

China might even have the edge now, according to Dr Lyle Goldstein, an associate professor at the China Maritime Studies Institute under the US Naval War College.

"In my opinion, the forces are quite evenly matched now, but China may even have pulled ahead in recent years," Goldstein said. He added that this was not the official assessment of the US Navy.

Japan last year formally unveiled the biggest warship in its fleet since the second world war - the Izumo-class helicopter destroyer.

The 248-metre ship, due to enter service next year, is designed to carry 14 helicopters, and complements Japan's two serving Hyuga-class helicopter destroyers, which are 197 metres long and can accommodate 11 helicopters.

Shanghai-based military expert Ni Lexiong said the helicopter destroyers could function as aircraft carriers for US planes, while China had only one aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, although observers say more are in the works.

China required nearly 10 years to convert the 67,500-ton Soviet-built Varyag into the Liaoning. It was formally delivered to the PLA in September 2012, and so far has been used for training.

"But Japan's helicopter carriers have been battle-ready for more than three decades with the help of the United States," Ni said. "Every one of its carriers is able to operate independently in combat."

Japan also enjoys an advantage in submarines, according to Wong. The PLA's existing submarines, many of which are old models, have been criticised by Western forces as "too noisy and too easily detected", while Japan has some of the most technologically advanced diesel-electric submarines in the world.

"The gap between the two countries' military capability, especially in hardware, has been narrowed, as Beijing has made a priority of boosting defence spending since it began double-digit growth in the early 1990s."

In March, Beijing said the annual budget for the military would by 808.2 billion yuan, a 12.2 per cent increase over last year, and slightly higher than the average 10 per cent increase.

"On the software side, there is still a huge gap," Wong said.

"The PLA needs more time to catch up."

 

[Aepsilons]

Japan's Response:

 

[BoQ77]

quoted from an article of Chinese reporter.

There's something funny I want everybody together discuss.
-------------------

I am fond of comparing China’s reform now with Shang Yang’s reform more than 2,000 years ago that enabled the State of Qin to conquer all other states and unify China.

China’s reform now is similar to Shang Yang’s in giving play to people’s talents and diligence. Then there is the question: Will the reform make China so strong as to conquer the world?

Germany tried to conquer the world when it became the strongest but suffered disastrous defeat. Will China be so stupid?

Chinese scholars believe that of all the ancient civilizations, Chinese civilization is the only one that has survived for more than 4,000 years because China has never tried to conquer the world or been fond of war.

However, a despot did emerge in China who wanted to conquer the world with his ideology called Mao Zedong Thought. Fortunately, China is poor and backward at that time. Otherwise, the human race will suffer more serious disasters than World War II as Mao was even willing to fight a nuclear war for his ideal communism.

Can we be sure that no despot like Mao will emerge when China is strong enough to conquer the world?

The US has tried hard to contain China, but can it stop China’s tremendous economic growth? No. what it has been doing and wants to do only facilitated China’s economic growth, for example, removal of Chinese state-owned sector’s monopoly and privilege.

What about containing China militarily? Stopping Israel export of early warning aircrafts, Canada’s export of 1,300 kW engines to deprive China’s WZ-10 armed helicopter of powerful engine and removal of the inner partitions of the hull of aircraft carrier Ukraine sold to China.

Did all those containing efforts work?

No. China has developed on its own early warning and control aircrafts with better functions than the most advanced American one and 1,500kW engine for WZ-10 and designed and installed partitions in the hull on its own to turn the hull into an operating aircraft carrier.

Instead of making great efforts to develop new weapons to maintain military superiority, the US uses the excuse of China stealing its technology to catch up with it.

Now, China has surpassed the US in anti-satellite (ASAT), anti-ASAT, hypersonic glide vehicle, drone, amphibious landing craft, etc. and is catching up and will soon surpass the US in midcourse ICBM interception, aerospace plane, conventional and nuclear submarines, stealth fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, ballistic and cruise missiles, etc. US will soon have nothing worth stealing by China. What excuse will the US have for lagging behind then?

It is a pity that American people are not much interested in history; therefore, they cannot learn the historical lessons.

Before World War II, Germany exploited its people’s patriotism and mindset for retaliation of its defeat in World War I to give play to its scientists and engineers’ talents. As a result, when World War II broke out, it had much better weapons than other countries. Even at the end of the war, its new tanks remained the best in the world.

The situation is being repeated now. China is using Chinese dream and the history of China’s past misery of being bullied by world powers to rouse people’s patriotism and give play to its scientists and engineers’ talents and diligence in developing advanced weapons. That is why China can catch up with and surpass the US so quickly.

I have described that in my post “Why Can China Surpass the US in Weapon Developments?” on July 26. Recently, Chinese media has published National Defense University’s report on how private enterprises are encouraged to make contribution to China’s weapon development. I give my summary of the report below:

National Defense University issued on July 25 a report titled “Report on China’s Joint Military and Civil Development”. The report says that over the past few years China has gradually formulated and perfected a full set of laws, rules and regulations related to private enterprises’ participation in development of national defense. Private enterprises are conscientiously undertaking the tasks of research, development and production of weapons and equipment for Chinese military. They have taken part in such major projects as Shenzhou X’s travel to space, Chang’e Lunar program and the commissioning of the Liaoning aircraft carrier.

According to the report, encouraging and supporting private enterprises taking part in development of national defense is an important part of the work to promote joint military and civil development. At present, a three-in-one framework for such development has initially taken shape. It consists of the governing laws and regulations, measures of implementation and the formulation of a catalogue of jobs to be taken by private enterprises.

China faces an increasing number of threats to its security due to the development and changes in the situation at home and abroad, There have been more demanding new requirements for national defense and military modernizations. Under such circumstances, private enterprises are conscientiously undertaking the tasks of research, development and production of weapons and equipment for Chinese military and doing their best to satisfy the urgent needs for the development of weapons and military equipment.

By May 2013, there had already been more than 500 private enterprises in China that have obtained licenses for research, development and production of weapons and military equipment and more than 1,000 civil technologies had been applied in research and development of equipment.

The report points out that over the past few years, due to the encouragement through a series policies and measures the number of private enterprise taking part in development of weapons and equipment for the military has kept on growing. The scope of the work they do has gradually extended from components, parts through entire equipment and master equipment.

For example, private enterprises have developed a certain light attack vehicle that can carry various kinds of light weapons, is equipped with GPS navigation system and has great cross-country capability and a certain crawler-mounted robot able to travel on rugged land such as sand, rocks and tidal flat.

Some local governments conscientiously encourage, support and guide the application of superior civil technologies to serve the need for national defense and military modernizations. For example, some private enterprises in Hebei Province have undertaken jobs in major projects for Shenzhou X, Chang’e spacecraft, the commissioning of the Liaoning aircraft carrier, National Day military parade, etc. Jiangsu Military Command jointed hands with local relevant enterprises in successful achieving over 100 technological innovations, including the “Artillery Operation Command Quick Response System”, “cross-wall surveillance radar” that have been widely used in troops’ war preparations and training.

Source: military.people.com.cn “National Defense University report says private enterprises participated in major projects such as the Liaoning aircraft carrier and Shenzhou X rocket” (summary by Chan Kai Yee based on the report in Chinese)

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

@BoQ77 interesting that you bring up Shang Yang’s reform (商鞅变法) ,

 

[terranMarine]

boy oh boy i'd love to see the comparison every decade from now
Japanese Navy would be in shock after a couple of decades

 

[Aepsilons]

@BoQ77 ,

All i have to say is quality over quantity. It would be inauspicious if the 4 Escort Fleets of the JMSDF were to be ever unleashed. The consequences towards the enemy force would be devastating. We are talking about the most advanced and powerful navy in Asia-Pacific. The enemy would be gutted. And I say this modestly.


Not taking into consideration our friends, the US 7th Fleet -- the Arm of the US Pacific Command.

 

[+4vsgorillas-Apebane]

boy oh boy i'd love to see the comparison every decade from now
Japanese Navy would be in shock after a couple of decades

It wasnt even that long ago when the Luda class ships formed the bulk of the PLAN.

 

[IsaacNewton]

@BoQ77 ,

All i have to say is quality over quantity. It would be inauspicious if the 4 Escort Fleets of the JMSDF were to be ever unleashed. The consequences towards the enemy force would be devastating. We are talking about the most advanced and powerful navy in Asia-Pacific. The enemy would be gutted. And I say this modestly.


Not taking into consideration our friends, the US 7th Fleet -- the Arm of the US Pacific Command.

Don't be over confidant. This type of thinking might have been accurate a decade ago but is holding less weight now. 2004 japan had advanced ageis destroyers like kango and building atago while china had a bunch of junks like 051 frigates. Now china has 6 type 052c 2 type 052d with 10 more coming and developing type 055. In 10 years I think china will have the second strongest navy in the world. Currently I think both fleets are evenly matched. China has numbers advantage, Japan has technological advantage and sailors are more experienced.

 

[BoQ77]

@BoQ77 ,

All i have to say is quality over quantity. It would be inauspicious if the 4 Escort Fleets of the JMSDF were to be ever unleashed. The consequences towards the enemy force would be devastating. We are talking about the most advanced and powerful navy in Asia-Pacific. The enemy would be gutted. And I say this modestly.

Not taking into consideration our friends, the US 7th Fleet -- the Arm of the US Pacific Command.

It must be a long way for Chinese Navy to develop.
They must compete hard to Indian Navy, Japanese Navy, ..before really challenge USN

 

[Aepsilons]

Don't be over confidant. This type of thinking might have been accurate a decade ago but is holding less weight now. 2004 japan had advanced ageis destroyers like kango and building atago while china had a bunch of junks like 051 frigates. Now china has 6 type 052c 2 type 052d with 10 more coming and developing type 055. In 10 years I think china will have the second strongest navy in the world. Currently I think both fleets are evenly matched. China has numbers advantage, Japan has technological advantage and sailors are more experienced.

It's not overconfidence , its the reality in the ground. The growth and the technological superiority of our fleet is evident, as we speak, Japan is building 2 new Atago Class Destroyers. This is not taking into consideration our 2nd Izumo Class Light Carrier that is being built, and our plans to procure 3-4 Amphibious Assault Ships of the WASP Class.

The combined power of the 4 JMSDF Escort Fleets and the US Navy's 7th Fleet will decimate any threat to our interests in the Asia-Pacific region when the occasion arises.

This is why it is in no one's interest to engage militarily.

 

[Pakistanisage]

PLAN's eventual adversary would be USN , so that comparison would be more apt.

 

[Aepsilons]

It must be a long way for Chinese Navy to develop.
They must compete hard to Indian Navy, Japanese Navy, ..before really challenge USN

They should develop, they have a plethora of security concerns in the South China Sea , and they have security concerns in the Sea of Japan.

This article is forgetting one thing tho, the fact that Japan has the supreme advantage of having one of the largest ASW force in the world. This will make nill most of their subs, leaving the rest of their surface fleet at the mercy of our 4 Escort Fleets, which have qualitative and quantitative advantage.

By 2020, we expect to have developed 4 CBGs, centered on our Hyuga and Izumo Class Light Carriers. With our interoperability and close cooperation with with the US 7th Fleet, there is absolutely no force in Asia-Pacific that can survive against our firepower.

 

[terranMarine]

Don't be over confidant. This type of thinking might have been accurate a decade ago but is holding less weight now. 2004 japan had advanced ageis destroyers like kango and building atago while china had a bunch of junks like 051 frigates. Now china has 6 type 052c 2 type 052d with 10 more coming and developing type 055. In 10 years I think china will have the second strongest navy in the world. Currently I think both fleets are evenly matched. China has numbers advantage, Japan has technological advantage and sailors are more experienced.

You got that right, it's only a matter of time. As he had served the Japanese Navy and being patriotic i can understand his pride but he's making the same mistake as plenty outsiders which is underestimating the PLA. I remember reading an article late 80's or early 90's in which Westerners described PLAN so backward that it will take a very long time to catch up. The gap will only decrease at a rapid pace between these 2 Navies as China is catching up fast. In a few decades not only will PLAN have the overwhelming numbers (which already has), but also more modern ships combined with more carriers, more nuclear subs.
As time goes by more experience will be gained so the Japanese advantage will slowly fade away.

 

[Aepsilons]

In a hypothetical naval conflict scenario, which the JMSDF has already prepared for, with China , the JMSDF's 4 Fleets: Esuko Kantai 1, Esuko Kantai 2, Esuko Kantai 3, and Esuko Kantai 4 would be mobilized. Japan MSDF would negotiate our forces through Sea of Japan, cancelling any enemy forrays by our ASW Force, this would prevent enemy subs from gaining any tactical advantage.

The Kaijo Jeitai Rengo Kantai [The Combined Fleet] would address the threat as a combined force, whereas the PLAN would have to scramble the East Sea Fleet, North Sea Fleet and possibly have to merge some assets of the South Sea Fleet. The length of time it would take the PLAN's 3 Fleets to meet , is a tactical blunder in itself.

By the time the South Fleet of the PLAN could merge, the North Sea Fleet and the East Sea Fleet would have been engaged already by the Kaijo Jeitai Rengo Kantai. We can calculate that the results of this battle would be in our favor.

The US 7th Fleet would prevent the South Sea Fleet from merging, and would be eradicated by USN7F's CBGs.

The weakness you see, is the fact that China's naval size is rather low. The fact that she has to address a larger expanse of territory, prevents the massing of key vessels. This will, ultimately, prove to be her achilles heel.

And Japan will take advantage of this to the maximum.

As will , of course, our American allies.

 

[IsaacNewton]

In a hypothetical naval conflict scenario, which the JMSDF has already prepared for, with China , the JMSDF's 4 Fleets: Esuko Kantai 1, Esuko Kantai 2, Esuko Kantai 3, and Esuko Kantai 4 would be mobilized. Japan MSDF would negotiate our forces through Sea of Japan, cancelling any enemy forrays by our ASW Force, this would prevent enemy subs from gaining any tactical advantage.

The Kaijo Jeitai Rengo Kantai [The Combined Fleet] would address the threat as a combined force, whereas the PLAN would have to scramble the East Sea Fleet, North Sea Fleet and possibly have to merge some assets of the South Sea Fleet. The length of time it would take the PLAN's 3 Fleets to meet , is a tactical blunder in itself.

By the time the South Fleet of the PLAN could merge, the North Sea Fleet and the East Sea Fleet would have been engaged already by the Kaijo Jeitai Rengo Kantai. We can calculate that the results of this battle would be in our favor.

The US 7th Fleet would prevent the South Sea Fleet from merging, and would be eradicated by USN7F's CBGs.

The weakness you see, is the fact that China's naval size is rather low. The fact that she has to address a larger expanse of territory, prevents the massing of key vessels. This will, ultimately, prove to be her achilles heel.

And Japan will take advantage of this to the maximum.

As will , of course, our American allies.

I agree, China simply can't challenge Japan as of now because China has much more area to guard. If South China Sea Fleet leaves, who will guard the disputed islands from vietnam?

Maybe in 2024, but by then Vietnam will have the strongest navy of ASEAN and China will probably still have to fight at 2/3rd strength.