China's 'nastier Rise' Will Affect Those Cheering America's Decline: South Asian Expert

[FairAndUnbiased]

USA has allies - Europe, Canada, Australia who gain nothing in an alliance with China. There might be temporary economic benefits. Politically or demographically there is nothing to be gained. China has no real friends. We won't even bring in Japan, South Korea, India, Saudis, Latin America

Nothing temporary about economics. As Bill Clinton said, "it's the economy, stupid." The economy is the most important thing for any nation to manage because the economy is what everyone must deal with, every day.

 

[khansaheeb]

That belief, namely the idea that China can challange USA in the near future is not half as preposterous as the idea that USA will be the sole superpower forever. No power has remained at the apex for ever. Ask the Egyptians, the Romans, the Persians and British. Like inevitably time comes for the champion boxer time comes for superpowers. Non is ordained by god to remain at the top for eternity.

So this expert thinks we live in the age of Vikings or Genghiz khan where a mountain, sea or ocean made you impervious to attack. What a idiot.

And any contest between great powers is not going to involve any war in the traditional sense. We saw the Cold War from 1950 to 1990 between the two superpowers. It never ever involved any fighting between their militaries. Instead the rivalry is contested on the economic front and or use of proxies. This is exactly what will happen in the emeging Sino-US rivalry. It will be economic.

With millions of Hispanic migrants, 10s of millions of twerking Negroes with a deft ability to come under policemens boots or run into hail of police bullets and Kim Kardeshian as a symbol of US culture America is well past it's apex which I think was in 1970.

You are right to some extent. It is the divisive extremist politics that can undermine the USA with a danger of the country imploding due to civil strife. Callous politicians who ignore the daily carnage on the streets are really guilty of treason :-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1315077057286533120

 

[nahtanbob]

No European country or Anglo origin country will go into the Chinese orbit. But the world is lot larger then what is called "West". Particularly as we move forward rest of the globe is rising and the centre of economic activity has shifted from the Atlantic eastwards.

People forget over the period 1600-1900 the greatest increase in population was in Europe and regions of European settlement like Americas/Australia etc. Thus by 1900 the % of global population had heavily skewed towards regions we call the "West" today. However since 1950 there is correction taking place. The south and east has seen and will see most of the population increase thus making impact on the global economy and order.

It is this dynamic the Chinese will ride to gain ascendancy much as USA relied on the European apogee to place itself as the superpower with NATO being the foundation of this. USA was able to do this because unlike other aspirants like Germany, France or even UK it had at least four times greater population. With China we must take into account that it is about four times more populous then USA. Frankly it does not need loads to satellites to aggregate around itself to cast a global shadow. Even by itself it is huge.
Trust me for variety of reasons, some civilizational, some racism China will never dislodge USA from most of Europe.
The "swing states" are in Africa, Asia, Middle East, South America to a degree. In Europe the best China can do is mitigate or placate US influence. However I can't see China ever gaining most of Europe for reasons described earlier.

The caveat being unless USA suffers from catastrophic economic implosion which I doubt it will. It will always remain a significant economic power.

You can argue China does not need allies or too many of them.

If USA keeps Canada, Australia, Europe that would be formidable counter-force. It has combined population close to billion people. They are generally White, Christian and liberal democracies. At some point expect USA to rope in Russiav which would give geographical heft. Add in Japan, India it is game over for China.

South Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Africa will be fractured. If India joins China Pakistan has to join USA. No one is going to win over these countries in their entirety.

As far as population growth goes there is an element of truth to what you say. White man conquered Australia and Americas and expanded their numbers. benefits of modern medicine has filtered down to the entire planet. Every country has 10-20x increase in population over the past 150 years. Future population growth is not going to happen. The earth is at breaking point. I do not see how Nigeria can support 700 million people.

If USA implodes this whole discussion is moot.

 

[maverick1977]

China's 'nastier Rise' Will Affect Those Cheering America's Decline: South Asian Expert
China has transformed itself into a global power in the last couple of decades and now it believes that it can challenge the US with its increasing might
Written By
Vishal Tiwari
11th October, 2020 17:33 IST

Jeff M. Smith, a Research Fellow, South Asia-Heritage Foundation on October 10 slammed people for celebrating America's decline, saying that "surrounded by allies and oceans, having leading tech, a network of military allies, and 5,000+ nuclear warheads", the United States will be okay if China's rise takes a "nastier turn". China has transformed itself into a global power in the last couple of decades and now it believes that it can challenge the US with its increasing military might and by becoming the factory for the world.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1314944426234519554

Some people are cheering China's rise as they see it as a significant decline in America's influence across the globe. Jeff M. Smith, with his tweet, was targetting those who will be happy to see China takeover the US to become the global superpower in the next couple of years. Smith warned that if China's rise by any chance takes a nastier turn, it will barely affect the United States as it sits comfortably on the North American continental plate and is surrounded by oceans on both sides, which makes it difficult for any nation to wage war against the country.

China's 'nastier rise' will affect those cheering America's decline: South Asian expert

China has transformed itself into a global power in the last couple of decades and now it believes that it can challenge the US with its increasing might

www.republicworld.com

lol

 

[nahtanbob]

Nothing temporary about economics. As Bill Clinton said, "it's the economy, stupid." The economy is the most important thing for any nation to manage because the economy is what everyone must deal with, every day.

If that was the case

why did you confirm what i wrote above with another useless sentences? what is the point?

you do not make alliance with someone who is a threat to you. a corollary of it - you reduce business with such countries

 

[Indus Pakistan]

government lacks transparency, where laws are enforced in a random manner and whose people do not have pre-defined moral codes (read non-Christian). This is not a personal attack on China or Chinese people. This is how China looks to the outside world.

FFs grow up. You think USA is transparent? The claim is just a fig leaf. USA is a country of elites for the elites. Divided by wealth and race. Go ask Georg Floyd about this "transparency". I know what your gonna say. Everything was "transparent" because the world saw it. Sometimes being transparent can mean blindness. Negroes will still get wasted. The elites in USA will still keep their privilaged status.

 

[khansaheeb]

You can argue China does not need allies or too many of them.

If USA keeps Canada, Australia, Europe that would be formidable counter-force. It has combined population close to billion people. They are generally White, Christian and liberal democracies. At some point expect USA to rope in Russiav which would give geographical heft. Add in Japan, India it is game over for China.

South Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Africa will be fractured. If India joins China Pakistan has to join USA. No one is going to win over these countries in their entirety.

As far as population growth goes there is an element of truth to what you say. White man conquered Australia and Americas and expanded their numbers. benefits of modern medicine has filtered down to the entire planet. Every country has 10-20x increase in population over the past 150 years. Future population growth is not going to happen. The earth is at breaking point. I do not see how Nigeria can support 700 million people.

If USA implodes this whole discussion is moot.

What a poor analysis. India, Pakistan and other South Asian countries will do whatever is in their best interest. Most of the countries in the region and around the world have not forgotten colonial atrocities and legacy and will be disinclined to join another colonial adventurer.

 

[FuturePAF]

You can argue China does not need allies or too many of them.

If USA keeps Canada, Australia, Europe that would be formidable counter-force. It has combined population close to billion people. They are generally White, Christian and liberal democracies. At some point expect USA to rope in Russiav which would give geographical heft. Add in Japan, India it is game over for China.

South Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Africa will be fractured. If India joins China Pakistan has to join USA. No one is going to win over these countries in their entirety.

As far as population growth goes there is an element of truth to what you say. White man conquered Australia and Americas and expanded their numbers. benefits of modern medicine has filtered down to the entire planet. Every country has 10-20x increase in population over the past 150 years. Future population growth is not going to happen. The earth is at breaking point. I do not see how Nigeria can support 700 million people.

If USA implodes this whole discussion is moot.

China does need partners that can be the markets and labor force to absorb their products. BRI/OBOR is meant to do just that. It’s not exactly akin to the Marshall plan, but it’s similar. If the current administration and Congress had passed and ratified the trans-pacific partnership, it would have created a new foundation for these countries in their trade deals with the US. Should Biden win in a few weeks, he might come back and pick up where Obama left off, especially on TPP.

Despite the social unrest, the economic foundations of the US are strong. Europe and some East Asian countries are worse off in their Debt to GDP ratios and their threat perceptions from Russia and China/North Korea respectively.

The US is pulling out of the mid-East/Western Asia region and these countries have to fend for themselves. Can you blame them for thinking about their own interests?

Russia won’t join the western alliance. They make good money selling arms to countries the west is reluctant to sell to. Their power And economic opportunities would be diminished if they became subservient to the western alliance. Besides, the last time around a western ally was in power in Russia (Yeltsin) it didn’t go so well. You can’t under-estimate how much the Russian are depending on what was developed and built during soviet times. They don’t have the money to compete face to face, so they need to pay for operations to keep their adversaries divided and looking away from them.

Europe and Japan are reluctant to fight Russia and China respectively, because they want to keep spending on their service economies and maintain their high standard of living.

Defense budgets like the US’s is unsustainable unless it helps maintain a power structure that is an overall net positive. Once those numbers didn’t make sense, the current president pulled the plug in the Middle East and Central Asia, but also Pulled the plug to some extend in places like Germany. Oil prices are down and subsidizing the US oil industry through a bailout is better use for American money then protecting Arab kingdoms, even if they buy tens of billions in weapons.

 

[comci]

If that was the case


you do not make alliance with someone who is a threat to you. a corollary of it - you reduce business with such countries

Lol, what a defect comparison. Doing business is not equal to making alliance. Look at the countries you mentioned in your posts. They are still doing business with China. The EU is part of NATO but still doing business with China. In fact the so called quad is really just talking club to scare gullible persons like you and some still do businees with China and other like Australia hoped China forget the misadventure Morrison had done on behalf of the USA.

'Asian NATO' plan stillborn at Tokyo Quad meet - Asia Times

The much-hyped and much-anticipated second ministerial meeting of the Australia-India-Japan-US Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly known as

asiatimes.com

 

[nahtanbob]

FFs grow up. You think USA is transparent? The claim is just a fig leaf. USA is a country of elites for the elites. Divided by wealth and race. Go ask Georg Floyd about this "transparency". I know what your gonna say. Everything was "transparent" because the world saw it. Sometimes being transparent can mean blindness. Negroes will still get wasted. The elites in USA will still keep their privilaged status.

You know about George Floyd because we are "transparent". If this happened in China you would not know about it. Thanks for playing along.

Nothing stops African Americans from coming up in life. Yeah there is racism. The last time I checked Pakistani Americans with brown skin, Islamic religion and Arabic names make a good living in USA.

What is wrong about elites ?? Do you want some piece of trash making decisions for the whole country ?

 

[Indus Pakistan]

f USA keeps Canada, Australia, Europe that would be formidable counter-force. It has combined population close to billion people. They are generally White, Christian and liberal democracies. At some point expect USA to rope in Russiav which would give geographical heft.

This I agree. I never consigned USA to the dustbin. It will remaina formidable power. Expect Chinese economic power to mitigate US influence in Europe. I disagree with the poster who used a colourful idiom. While they may not walk they might be mitigated.

Add in Japan, India it is game over for China.

Japan's position is nOT set in stone. Over the long term it could change. Insofar as I accept Australia will always remain in Western camp by the same meaasure Japan might not. Things can change. The "bullshit walks" might be applicable to Japan over long term.

India

I know your as much American as I am British. You have roots in India and I in Pakistan. So lets get this clear. India will not make much differance and any it does can be easily equalized by mix of other Asia countries begining with Pakistan. Most of South East Asia could over half a century fall under Chinese economic orbit. Africa and some states in Middle East also could swing.

 

[nahtanbob]

What a poor analysis. India, Pakistan and other South Asian countries will do whatever is in their best interest. Most of the countries in the region and around the world have not forgotten colonial atrocities and legacy and will be disinclined to join another colonial adventurer.

History does not repeat itself in the exact manner. I see enough characters in Islamabad and Delhi willing to sell out their countries to USA and China if the price is high enough

 

[khansaheeb]

History does not repeat itself in the exact manner. I see enough characters in Islamabad and Delhi willing to sell out their countries to USA and China if the price is high enough

Indians are not fools, they are economic and strategic rivals of the USA and after a few more years decades of economic growth will be a US rival. Don't fool yourselves.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

You know about George Floyd because we are "transparent". If this happened in China you would not know about it. Thanks for playing along.

What did I say about "transparent but blind". Meaning so what if the world saw it? If you got smothered with CNN watching or smothered in dark what differance would it make. The FACT is the killings contine. FACT is there is deep systemic racism in USA. FACT is there is deep division between haves and haves not. The elites have captured all the levers of influence in the so called free country. The result is while being free many don't have benefit of being free. It's like that saying "justice is open to all like the Ritz Hotel".

Finally, even the much trumpeted freedom and transparency your alluding to is a recent invention in USA. Only few decades ago Negroes were free to be second class legally. Your assuming China 2020 will remain 2020. It's evolving. In few decades they will also be singing "freedom".

 

[nahtanbob]

Indians are not fools, they are economic and strategic rivals of the USA and after a few more years decades of economic growth will be a US rival. Don't fool yourselves.

in the long run they are potential rivals if they can stay intact, control their populations, deal with China
there is a lot of if's there