Well, as per my previous analysis, US lost will quite depend on how quickly and far Chinese take over the situation before US main force were involved. But I would have to say Most of the US Far East asset will be depleted (Either used up or destroyed) but then US will comes out ahead of China in case of war as it is fighting over in China which will damage Chinese mainland quite a lot but US mainland would generally be untouched.
So, what happened is that US will sacrifice existing Far East Infrastructure to draw down China, which US can rebuild them easy (As most of US mainland is untouched and most of it does not belong to the US anyway in the begining) but China would have a hard time to rebuild.
well i am still in doubt that US far east fleet will be able to tackle the Chinese Armed forces , and when the US mainland forces come to join they wont stand any Chance .. I think Chinese will have the Advantage of their own Sea's and the man made islands they are creating in the South China sea , US fleet can not diverse its force to chase down Chinese Ships carrying the Anti-Ship Missiles ..
by attacking the mainland China if you mean just Missiles and Ariel Strikes than i guess it can be done,but Attacking China from Ground would be a disaster for even US ground forces .. China got the numbers and actually way to many
not to mentioned that Chinese Subs will be a headache for any US naval fleet ..
The problem is, If and When China decided to retake Taiwan by force, this will be in no way a "Small Dispute" the way it is heading, this scenario have a minimal chance of occurrence, unless something dramatic happened during the near future.
China always think Taiwan is a Runaway province, their thinking is that Taiwan is an eyesore not because of economic might (It was before) but about the illegitimacy of Taiwan as an independent nation. That is why China is obsessed with Taiwan.
I will say it will depend on how china decide to take on Taiwan ... under what circumstances .. China can paralyze the Entire Taiwan Forces by Ariel Strikes and Using Cruise missiles . and wait to see the US and its allies response .. If Taiwan falls even before US could even interfere , i think China can and will be in a better position to hold up Taiwan ..
rest i agree with you that any Dispute wont remain small when 2 Nuclear powers are about to confront each other
It would be a good trade off for US to use existing far east infrastructure to set China down for 20 to 30 years back. You need to know this, the existing structure in Far East is already paid for and if China actually try to retake Taiwan, that is the ultimate sign of Chinese Aggression, which the US can use it to sell China like the Former Soviet Union. The US will portrait as "today Taiwan, tomorrow, who?" type of situation
And this could be a motivated sign to have a war of Uniting Asia to go up against China and after that happen, basically all of Asia would be ruined, and it will increase the US Allies in Asia to depend on US even more.
As for can US defend Taiwan? It don't need to. Taiwan is close to China, but the problem is, Taiwan is a small Island means China cannot possibly use all her Military might to take Taiwan. And Taiwan can simply go underground and raise an insurgency warfare, and fight China until US come to aide with a NATO combine force. They have done it in South Korea, it would have been the same result for Taiwan.
Either you are over estimating the US Far east Capabilities or under Estimating the Chinese Naval Fleets .. or maybe i don't know much about both of them LOL ..
I agree that Asian countries will buy that theory of after Taiwan " who's Next " , so US will have all the reason to take a military action and uniting the other Asian countries into your Operations , and for that , i believe India and Vietnam will be first to join any Alliance against China .. for Japan and S.Korea i doubt that they will let their lands to be used against China ..
I Think once china launch its attack with the mood of taking or Crippling the Taiwan Defense , they can do it in no time .. but there will be a build up of situations , some series of Incidents that will occur before the invasion , that will alarm the US for what's coming next ..
do you think Taiwan is able to cause a Insurgency and use Guerrilla tactics against PLA ? minor resistance i can expect but not on a large scale as US faced in Afghanistan and Iraq