China's high risk India gamble

[lemurian]

With regard to your who is getting whose attention, do you think I was referring to this when I highlighted that they, the Chinese, I mean, seem to push Indian buttons now and then - almost as if they know the reaction so well, and know how to play it and who's attention it

It's far more likely that China intends to keep India in a "low-level equilibrium"as MMS recently pointed out. Unsure of China intentions, India will concentrate on regional security, and not seek a larger role. Keep India guessing, so to speak. Just my amateur opinion

 

[su-47]

well today china has upper hand but in next 4-5 India will be equal to China defense

as expert say in coming year china economy will go down and India will grow far better then china

you have spent too much time at sea my friend. It will take much longer than 4-5 years. Even if China STOPS GROWING and we keep up our current rate, we cant match them in 4-5 years.

And the experts who say Indian growth will overtake China's does not say it will happen soon. This is something that will happen in the coming decades. Still a long time to go.

Lets not let patriotism make us delusional.

 

[third eye]

Well I don't know if Pakistan and India are going to nuke each other anytime soon, but it seems to me that India seem to get the short end of the stick against China, I mean they are not in the same kind of league and they are determined to come to the attention of the Chinese, especially after Admiral Mullen's guarantee to come to India's aid in confrontation with China.

On the other hand, Chinese are not keen for such a confrontation, I think they correctly gauge the prickly (quick to take offense) nature of the present day (I use to a lover but now I'm a fighter) Indian. They, the Chinese I mean, at least going by the report above, like to push the Indians buttons, now and then - I may be mistaken though.

It is not relevant who will get which end of the stick. What matters is that a nation stands up forwhat it considers right without U Turns in its policy.

No one is keen for a confrontation. All India wants is an acceptance of what each one has without coveting the others possessions. In the case of China , it now seeks areas it over ran in 62 and withdrew. It was either wrong for China to have withdrawn then or the demand for Aunachal is wrong now.

Meanwhile, there is no harm in preparing for any eventuality. Who come out victorious does not matter coz wars have never solved a problem - only worsened it.

 

[Agnostic_Indian]

Yeah right, keep dreaming cos it free, some so called experts also predict India will eliminate poverty by 2015, super power by 2020.

We don't have unrealistic dreams. India china military gap will widen to china's favour but india and china will become too big for each other for A war.
economic growth of china will slow down and both nations will grow more or less equally.
poverty removal is a continuous process we will significantly improve the situation by 2020. And super power.. Not number one or two..Race for number one spot will be between china and US and may be russia too. India will be in race for top five position(by 2030-40).remember we are now on forth position in military front.

 

[muse]

You guys are only seeing confrontation - India cannot go on with unresolved borders with her neighbors - to my thinking this is a very important issue.

India will concentrate on regional security, and not seek a larger role. Keep India guessing, so to speak. Just my amateur opinion

I don't know about that - for instance think Afghanistan - do India and China want to keep Wahabists under some firm control? Do India and China share the idea that Islamist radical thought is a danger to the very idea of nation states and should be countered and contained? Trade now is at USD 60 Billion, why can't it be many many times more?

Why not closer relations with either China or Pakistan, to lead to a genuine partnership - but India must be ready to bear the cost of it's emergence - the longer these issues fester, the worse for India, The US will not always be ascendant, or even be willing to be of assistance.

The number one condition for India to emerge is peaceful and prosperous relations with neighbors - just my amateur opinion.

 

[Agnostic_Indian]

You guys are only seeing confrontation - India cannot go on with unresolved borders with her neighbors - to my thinking this is a very important issue.



I don't know about that - for instance think Afghanistan - do India and China want to keep Wahabists under some firm control? Do India and China share the idea that Islamist radical thought is a danger to the very idea of nation states and should be countered and contained? Trade now is at USD 60 Billion, why can't it be many many times more?

Why not closer relations with either China or Pakistan, to lead to a genuine partnership - but India must be ready to bear the cost of it's emergence - the longer these issues fester, the worse for India, The US will not always be ascendant, or even be willing to be of assistance.

The number one condition for India to emerge is peaceful and prosperous relations with neighbors - just my amateur opinion.

For that neighbours should have realistic demands on border problems.

 

[muse]

I don't know about that - there is too much presupposition in your comment -- First, bloody well, talk - that's all don't give jack away, but talk - and put a muzzle on these Fox news clones.

Indian wasn't born yesterday, that he is afraid that he will be sold in the bazaar, none of the players were born yesterday - but concessions by one party are not the name of the game anywhere, especially among the group we are talking about -- but it's about talking not escalating silly non-issues like a denial of a single visa and retaliation (the Selig Harrison piece) -- it might play well in the West, but last I checked most Indians do not live in the West.

 

[RobbieS]

I don't know about that - there is too much presupposition in your comment -- First, bloody well, talk - that's all don't give jack away, but talk - and put a muzzle on these Fox news clones.

Indian wasn't born yesterday, that he is afraid that he will be sold in the bazaar, none of the players were born yesterday - but concessions by one party are not the name of the game anywhere, especially among the group we are talking about -- but it's about talking not escalating silly non-issues like a denial of a single visa and retaliation (the Selig Harrison piece) -- it might play well in the West, but last I checked most Indians do not live in the West.

Funny, how every Pakistani here forgets how their Army responds to peace proposals. We talked, remember? Hell, we even took a bus decked with peace doves to your doorsteps, remember? What did that fetch us? A 1000 lives at Kargil.

Wrt to our relations with Pakistan, though I'd like for us to talk, I think India can manage without any talks. Status Quo suits us.

With China its a different story. None of the countries can afford a war as they have too much too lose, unlike Pakistan. So talks are the best option wrt China. We should keep them engaged and resolve the border issues.

 

[lemurian]

Why not closer relations with either China or Pakistan, to lead to a genuine partnership - but India must be ready to bear the cost of it's emergence - the longer these issues fester, the worse for India, The US will not always be ascendant, or even be willing to be of assistance.

The number one condition for India to emerge is peaceful and prosperous relations with neighbors - just my amateur opinion.

How can a "thinktank" be an amateur?? And, btw nice attempt to push us on the defensive. Its China thats sending mixed signals all over the place. Even a small slight can have major consequences on relations, because our media is not state controlled, and yes things will get hyped up.

 

[muse]

I'm so sneaky! such a stinker! But concentrate of whether or not I'm making sense, focus on the substance, not whether I am good or bad or an evil Pakistani with ulterior (are there any other kinds) motives, such as putting the Indian of the back foot (it's all the rage, everybody's doing it)

About this "free press" business -- there's no such a thing, there never has been, there cannot be. ..Unless you mean something which I have failed to comprehend

Wrt to our relations with Pakistan, though I'd like for us to talk, I think India can manage without any talks. Status Quo suits us.

With China its a different story. None of the countries can afford a war as they have too much too lose, unlike Pakistan. So talks are the best option wrt China. We should keep them engaged and resolve the border issues

And yet, as I understood it, it was a complaint from Pakistan that resulted in that visa being denied -- but of course you make a excellent point, Should India continue to talk with China and resolve it's border issues, yes, I'm all for it - I think India needs a new direction, and better relations between China and India are a net plus for the region.

But of course that leaves the issue of the Chinese seeing their relations with India in such a way that they may play their cards in a variety of ways - Nepal, Bangla, Lanka and Pakistan, each has excellent relations with China and wants to improve them further, India on the other hand, does not enjoy such warmth in her relations with her neighbors, it's almost as if India were cornered on all sides, it will be very interesting to study Indian diplomacy as it deconstructs each of these relationships and perhaps rebuilds them, I am certain that Indian diplomacy may find a way to better relations with Pakistan, it will be interesting to note the play of events in captive kashmir, Afghanistan and beyond.

 

[lemurian]

@muse
My point is precisely this.. China can gauge the public reaction of its actions in India. It is not playing naive games with India. It takes just a little incident to spark the fuse in India. The Indian media will take care of it. China is aware of this fact. These little incidents are aimed making India cautious, yet not so much as to drive it into the arms of US. I suspect there will be more of these "pinpricks" in the near future.

 

[RobbieS]

And yet, as I understood it, it was a complaint from Pakistan that resulted in that visa being denied -- but of course you make a excellent point, Should India continue to talk with China and resolve it's border issues, yes, I'm all for it - I think India needs a new direction, and better relations between China and India are a net plus for the region.

But of course that leaves the issue of the Chinese seeing their relations with India in such a way that they may play their cards in a variety of ways - Nepal, Bangla, Lanka and Pakistan, each has excellent relations with China and wants to improve them further, India on the other hand, does not enjoy such warmth in her relations with her neighbors, it's almost as if India were cornered on all sides, it will be very interesting to study Indian diplomacy as it deconstructs each of these relationships and perhaps rebuilds them, I am certain that Indian diplomacy may find a way to better relations with Pakistan, it will be interesting to note the play of events in captive kashmir, Afghanistan and beyond.

Your point about China leveraging from India's not so-good relations with its neighbors is fair. And that does seem to be the current scenario. Countries like Nepal and SL threaten to play India against China and use their new found closeness to China as a bargaining chip. But my point is that if India can improve its relations with China via talks and exchanges, these countries and their relations with China wont matter. India can rise inspite of that. We need to raise our economic and cultural exchanges to a level where China is forced to dehyphen Pakistan and India. Kind of what we have done with the US. 20 years ago US was all too happy to ignore India and get in bed with its best buddy Pakistan. But look at how tables have turned now. We need to do similar with China. And if possible Russia can be a mediator between India and China. Inspite of being a rival, it has cordial relation with China.

We just need to tackle our internal issues and externally, engage with China and we are all set.

I'm so sneaky! such a stinker! But concentrate of whether or not I'm making sense, focus on the substance, not whether I am good or bad or an evil Pakistani with ulterior (are there any other kinds) motives, such as putting the Indian of the back foot (it's all the rage, everybody's doing it)

About this "free press" business -- there's no such a thing, there never has been, there cannot be. ..Unless you mean something which I have failed to comprehend

What in God's name are you talking about? Were you replying to some other post? And I am sure you get this often, but can you be a little less cryptic? us poor Indians cant comprehend the exalted level of your English.

 

[muse]

But my point is that if India can improve its relations with China via talks and exchanges, these countries and their relations with China wont matter.

I


This has been a historic mistake - these relationships will always matter - they matter because they give leverage to others, and they deny you leverage

We need to raise our economic and cultural exchanges to a level where China is forced to dehyphen Pakistan and India. Kind of what we have done with the US.

I'm not sure I'm convinced or rather I'm not as persuaded as you are that Indian diplomacy has succeeded in dehypenating India/Pakistan when it comes to US policy - The US has it's own imperatives, with regard to China, it needs India has a possible bugaboo and look, are those F16's really for terrorists? really?

Now I do agree that the dehypenating bit is certainly a goal or an ambition - What do you think it will take to dehyphenate SinoPak ? Will it take territorial adjustments? Will it take excusing that Dalai Lama? Will it take improving relations with Pakistan?

If your answer to these is yes, then what beef do you have,? isn't this what I have been saying?

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Originally Posted by Chinese-Dragon View Post
Well it's a negotiation, you start high, then bargain downwards.

To be honest I think everyone should just keep what they currently control. Make the status quo into the official boundary.

Thanks for a simple yet rational view on the border disputes.
IMO, that is a given. And both countries will work their ways around this; while trying to ensure that nothing derails the trajectory of economic growth that both countries are pursuing.
In any case, these are (more or less) the lines that can be militarily held.

As for the bouts of "Shadow Boxing" that occur periodically; these are necessary devices in statecraft. To assuage both "adversaries and allies" alike.

 

[somebozo]

The indians talk about dehypenating and all boiling all over AfPak?? Kiya yeh khula tazad nahe??? hahahah

War or even skirmishes between India and China would be in best favour of USA as it would re-establish it as stable economy and reduce the clout of CHina and India..The biggest loser would still be India. Never trust the American war machine!