China’s Economy Won’t Overtake the U.S., Some Now Predict

[Beast]

Where have you been: 16-wheeler trucks. And aircraft engines are transported by air. Its called multi-modal transport. Doesn't mean that if you have seen rail transport work in China, that for other parts of the world no option works. Nobody wakes up in the morning and needs rice and the rice has to be shipped by high speed rail. Thats not how supply chains work.

The world prospered over the last 30 years because it was interconnected. China, the west. Not because China is a set of super humans and did it all on its own


The obvious one is aviation: for 25 years China has been purchasing Boeing and Airbus airliners. The new C919 airliner has 40% of its major high-value equipment all imported. GE/Safran engines , Honeywell for avionics and so on...

China's industry is advanced and should be admired but its not at the expense of the rest of the world being stupid. Don't ask questions that have obvious answers. If Chinese sensors allow you, read more than what the Govt makes you read.

Lol.. let me ask u. Since China aviation is so reliant on US components. Why didn't US ban components export to C919 since our r/s with US is so bad?

You think we really need their components? If not for facilitate FAA approval. We don't even need a single import. You are so naive and brainwashed by neocon media.

Without a single US parts, which US companies will fight for C919 FAA approval for COMAC? Tell me genuis?

 

[tower9]

so li keqiang is a sensationalist. let's have them dwarfing metrics.

I mean, all you need to do is look at the actual figures and statistics. I wouldn’t even trust what China’s government says because they have a strong interest in understating their growth as they are trying to stealthily replace the US as a global superpower.

 

[mili]

The 'stronger' usa gdp gets, the shorter americans' lives.
Looks like they have invented new economic theories.

China's life expectancy is now higher than that of the US

China's life expectancy is now higher than that of the US By Mary Hui Sept. 1 2022 The US’s life expectancy continued its decline from 2020 to 2021, dropping sharply to 76.1 years. With the latest decline, US life expectancy is now at its lowest since 1996, according to new data (pdf) from...

defence.pk

 

[tower9]

Robots can only replace cheap labor, not engineers, technicians and other occupations.

In fact, China surpassed the USA because Americans abandoned stem and pursued careers such as finance and sports. China's advantage lies in its huge number of STEM talents. The advantage of the USA is that it can absorb stem talents from all over the world.

If China's population continues to shrink, the number of STEM talents will be less and less. This is the most terrible thing.

In 30 years, perhaps China will have only 900 million people. How can the talents provided by our 900 million people defeat the talents provided by their 9 billion people?

So our real enemies are those conservative nationalists. We must move towards a pluralistic society and open our doors to the world. We also need to absorb talents from all over the world.

China desperately needs to be able to attract stem talents from other countries as well not just rely on itself.

 

[Mista]

China is already ~20% ahead in GDP PPP terms. The US is still ahead in nominal GDP due to significantly higher prices. With ~8% US inflation and similar levels of real growth rate, the US will widen the nominal GDP gap with China this year.

But you know, this is so silly. Racing ahead due to record inflation and not because of stronger GDP growth. But it is what it is if we are to compare looking at just nominal GDP as the only indicator for the size of a country's economy. I will add that it's also important to reference to other indicators (eg, GDP PPP, trade volume etc) as well to contextualize using nominal GDP as an indicator for economic size.

My own guess is that China will overtake the US in nominal GDP around 2030. People tend to extrapolate the current mood into the long future, which can be overly optimistic or overly pessimistic. Back in 2020 when the US hit double digit unemployment and took on record levels of debt, people were forecasting China to overtake around 2028 but I still stuck to around 2030. Now that China is facing economic headwinds from lockdowns and deleveraging campaigns, some are forecasting that they will never surpass the US. I'm still going to stick to them surpassing the US around 2030.

In fact I think China will eventually grow to ~1.5x to 2x of US nominal GDP before slowing to the same level of growth as other developed countries. Despite a shrinking demographic, in the medium term (~2040), China will still have around 4x the population of the US.

To surpass the US, China's relative GDP per capita to the US has to be around Uruguay levels today.
To reach ~1.5x the size of the US, China's relative GDP per capita to the US has to be around Czech Republic levels today.
To reach ~2x the size of the US, China's relative GDP per capita to the US has be around South Korean levels today.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

After 2040, I think their growth rates will be similar. But if China's current TFR of ~1.2 continues or drop even further as they develop (like South Korea), China will experience a demographic implosion worse than Japan in the coming decades and it's possible that the US will start catching up to China in total GDP after 2050. China's working age population is already shrinking by ~7mil per year and will continue shrinking for the remaining of this century. On top of shrinking labor force , they also have to divert more resources to care for an increasing elderly share of the population.

 

[crankthatskunk]

China will surely one day surpass US in GDP but will never beat US on per capita

Why you think so much is spent on the armed forces and those naval armadas!!
The day "Petro Dollar" agreements ends, the dollar would tumble down and then US have to pay for its goods in real money, like others have to do and keep a reserve.
Everything would happen then.

 

[MultaniGuy]

Only American analysts are saying China won't overtake USA economically.

But the whole world is saying China will overtake USA economically in a matter of years.

Probably by 2025.

 

[VkdIndian]

Chinese Chief of economy is saying, be ready for hardships.
But the Chinese bot army wouldn’t accept anything that says that China can falter at anything. For these bots China has either conquered everything or it is about to, within no time.
Since I have questioned their methods, in no time these bots would come running and raise questions about Indian economy.
O bots please spare us and tell us about Chinese economy.

 

[FuturePAF]

China desperately needs to be able to attract stem talents from other countries as well not just rely on itself.

A good case study is the gradual attraction of European talent to the US from the 1880s to the 1930s. Vienna (a d the German speaking world) was once a global crossroads of talent and now usually just attracted talent from around Europe, and peripheral regions.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Only American analysts are saying China won't overtake USA economically.

But the whole world is saying China will overtake USA economically in a matter of years.

Probably by 2025.

2022 will be another lost year for China. US GDP is already at $25T.

 

[dbc]

Now that China is facing economic headwinds from lockdowns and deleveraging campaigns,

aren't you trivialising structure issues by calling it economic headwinds. So far, the Chinese response to these 'headwinds' is more stimulus with a large share going into infrastructure kicking the can (pain) a little further into the future.

how does China eliminate all that red ink from its ledger? You sound like you know a thing or two about economic fundamentals and quite a bit about China. So, I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on the subject.

 

[MH.Yang]

aren't you trivialising structure issues by calling it economic headwinds. So far, the Chinese response to these 'headwinds' is more stimulus with a large share going into infrastructure kicking the can (pain) a little further into the future.

how does China eliminate all that red ink from its ledger? You sound like you know a thing or two about economic fundamentals and quite a bit about China. So, I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on the subject.

What structural problems does China have?

The biggest problem is that the information you receive is not true.

Didn't you just find out that the so-called "bank run of China" and "China's use of tanks to suppress marched depositors" are fake news? Western media can even fabricate rumors that China's banking system is about to collapse through an ordinary bank fraud case.

Guess how much of the information you received about China is true?

 

[dbc]

What structural problems does China have?

plenty, start with demographics, decline in productivity, transition from low cost manufacturing to high value economy, declining returns from investments, financially stressed state owned banks and enterprise, urban-rural inequity, environmental issues including carbon footprint and pollution. I haven't even scratched the surface, but I'm sure you think all of the above is western MSM lies so it's kinda pointless to expect an honest assessment from you. The above issues have been highlighted by Chinese economist in several peer reviewed papers and reiterated by state officials.

But around here Chinese members are less interested in an honest discussion they'd rather flex to the theme of 'China stronk' encouraged by a chorus of cheers from the peanut gallery. I'd rather hear the opinion of someone with knowledge supported by facts and I believe Mista fits the description.

 

[beijingwalker]

plenty, start with demographics, decline in productivity, transition from low cost manufacturing to high value economy, declining returns from investments, financially stressed state owned banks and enterprise, urban-rural inequity, environmental issues including carbon footprint and pollution. I haven't even scratched the surface, but I'm sure you think all of the above is western MSM lies so it's kinda pointless to expect an honest assessment from you. The above issues have been highlighted by Chinese economist in several peer reviewed papers and reiterated by state officials.

But around here Chinese members are less interested in an honest discussion they'd rather flex to the theme of 'China stronk' encouraged by a chorus of cheers from the peanut gallery. I'd rather hear the opinion of someone with knowledge supported by facts and I believe Mista fits the description.

lol..

 

[dbc]

lol..
View attachment 876188

ah! the Zhengwei of the peanut gallery has arrived. You sure debunked my post with a single meme. Well done!