China's Economic Miracle Is Over

[CardSharp]

Wages will increase with living standards. Chinese companies will not lose chance to outsource if they feel they can make it cheaper from other countries.

Given China's infrastructure and accumulated manufacturing expertise, I personally don't think that companies will have enough incentive to outsource even if wages/living standards starts to rise.

 

[pkpatriotic]

The New Rules: Globalization's Massive Demographic Bet
Thomas P.M. Barnett

By calling the Chinese out explicitly on their currency manipulation in his concluding address to the G-20 summit last week, President Barack Obama may have torpedoed his relationship with Beijing for the remainder of what China’s bosses most certainly now hope is his first and only term. Burdened by a Republican-controlled, Tea Party-infused House, and bathed in hypocrisy thanks to the Fed’s own, just-announced currency manipulation (aka, QE2), Obama seems not to recognize either the gravity of his nation’s long-term economic situation or the degree to which his own political fate now hinges on his administration’s increasingly stormy ties with China.

Here’s the larger picture: Asia, anchored by China, is now the global economy’s center of gravity when it comes to deployable savings. As Europe heads into retirement and the U.S. refuses to come to grips with its unsustainable trajectory, China stands tall thanks to its capacity to spend and invest — even as that capacity seems woefully insufficient for the bevy of historical tasks at hand. Beijing must already see to the care and feeding of 22 percent of humanity, the bulk of whom remain impoverished by anybody’s reasonable standards. But in addition, China is now expected to cover the spendthrift West’s need to boost exports, while also serving as income-elevating engine for the rest of the world’s developing economies — largely through the Middle Kingdom’s ravenous resource demands.

And if all that wasn’t intimidating enough, China’s demographic clock is ticking like no other nation’s in human history. Already losing its cheap-labor advantage right now, China is set to stockpile elders from here on out at a pace never before witnessed. By 2050, it will have more non-working old people (400 million plus) than America’s total projected population (400 million). At that point, the U.S. median age will still be just below 40, while China’s will be closer to 50. It took Europe a century for its elder population to gradually rise from 10 percent of total population to the 20-percent level. America’s still-unfolding journey along the same path will run about six decades. But China will have 20 years, if it’s lucky.

 

[CaptainPrice]

According to George Friedman; China is having the last 10 years,It'll lose the control of it's economy and roll back to the times of 1920.If you want to have more information please look at George Friedman's Future 100 years.

 

[Solomon2]

China will extend its boom by climbing relentlessly up the value chain.

I've already witnessed one such failed attempt, which foundered upon the rock of "Chinese values". So in my opinion it's far more likely that Chinese companies will have to outsource their higher-value work to the E.U. or the U.S. - and these will, in turn, outsource a good bit of that work to India!

 

[no_name]

We'll see in ten years. China is still quite vulnerable as far as the really top end tech is concerned. The roots are planted but not very deep. It take years to train people.

 

[Jade]

China will extend its boom by climbing relentlessly up the value chain. Also I believe though domestic consumption will expand rapidly, it will still lag behind China's production capacity (in other words the trade balance is going to be here for a while)

Climbing up the value chain is not going to be easy for China. Apart from the structural changes that China has to impart to its labor laws, financial intermediation processes, Intellectual property right policies, transparencies and education sector, China will face intense competition from west and other emerging countries; however having said that, one cannot discount China, as it has the capacity to spring surprises

 

[siegecrossbow]

What ever makes the naysayers more comfortable, I guess. Don't see how they should be so gleeful about the imminent collapse of the Chinese economy since we don't know just how it'll effect the global economy.

 

[Jade]

Inflation? yes, it's true, food price rise a lot in these days.
but if Chinese government is willing to do, it can reduce the price in 1 month.....

How come? by increasing unemployment? at least in short term that is what is going to help in controlling inflation.

 

[below_freezing]

I've already witnessed one such failed attempt, which foundered upon the rock of "Chinese values". So in my opinion it's far more likely that Chinese companies will have to outsource their higher-value work to the E.U. or the U.S. - and these will, in turn, outsource a good bit of that work to India!

don't get it. what's the failed attempt?

also don't get why they think wages are the issue here. manufacturing is not a job where you throw people at it and it increases output. this isn't 19th century britain. right now the manufacturing sector is losing workers fast and wages for manufacturing jobs like welding are higher than ever. it's our service sector that's been hit hard by inflation and wage depression. a welder or steelworker in a factory could easily make twice as much as the engineer that designed the project they work on.

 

[somebozo]

China is maturing up as an industrial giant which can make a lot more than just filling your dollar store. Look at their recent innovations in nuclear, rail and aerospace albeit with western co-op!

 

[below_freezing]

China is not maturing up as an industrial gaint which can make a lot more filling your dollar store. Look at their recent innovations in nuclear, rail and aerospace albeit with western co-op!

west, coop with us in aerospace, rail and nuclear? hahahaha do you know what "European Embargo" is? do you know "export license"? the US state department has a list of classified technologies, and then a list of countries in order of trust. We're somewhere near the bottom, along with Iran, North Korea and Russia. You realize that in 1992, a precision milling machine (a tool to cut metal) was exported to us and it caused a huge outcry in the US? now look at what we're doing: we're bidding on the US rail project, they can't even make it themselves. Kawasaki even said that our trains have nothing to do with theirs. Our trains are faster. How do they coop with us if they can't do it themselves?

but you may mean that some of their components are used on our products. like how japan supplies boeing. but no one says boeing is a "japanese plane". nor do people say "boeing planes are american, albeit wit japanese co-op!"

 

[Jade]

What ever makes the naysayers more comfortable, I guess. Don't see how they should be so gleeful about the imminent collapse of the Chinese economy since we don't know just how it'll effect the global economy.

People understand basic economics to know what would happen to the world economy, if Chinese economy were to collapse. Being critical of an issue is not same as “gleeful”. What do you expect?…always eulogizing everything Chinese…do you really think everything about China is perfect? If yes, then I have nothing to say, if no, then you should expect, especially on forms such as PDF where different nationalities are members, to hear views that are tangent to your own

 

[CardSharp]

People understand basic economics to know what would happen to the world economy, if Chinese economy were to collapse. Being critical of an issue is not same as “gleeful”. What do you expect?…always eulogizing everything Chinese…do you really think everything about China is perfect? If yes, then I have nothing to say, if no, then you should expect, especially on forms such as PDF where different nationalities are members, to hear views that are tangent to your own

Do you know who Andrew Breitbart is? Have you read the actual article? if you did read it, I'd suggest you also click the link and read the comment section below to give you an idea of the readership of that blog.

You probably don't read enough neo-conservative articles about the coming collapse of China. Gleeful is an under-statement for the tone of the majority of them.

To have an intelligent conversation about the Chinese economy, it's problems and where it is going, is one thing, but it is pretty pathetic to see the Indian members here jump aboard with anti-immigration, anti-abortion, anti-tolerance, American neocons just to bash China or use it as "evidence" somehow about how China will fail.

 

[Jade]

Do you know who Andrew Breitbart is? Have you read the actual article? if you did read it, I'd suggest you also click the link and read the comment section below to give you an idea of the readership of that blog.

You probably don't read enough neo-conservative articles about the coming collapse of China. Gleeful is an under-statement for the tone of the majority of them.

To have an intelligent conversation about the Chinese economy, it's problems and where it is going, is one thing, but it is pretty pathetic to see the Indian members here jump aboard with anti-immigration, anti-abortion, anti-tolerance, American neocons just to bash China or use it as "evidence" somehow about how China will fail.

What difference that it makes even if somebody is “gleeful” of Chinese collapse. You find different kind of people in different facets of life, internet being one. Either you counter them with your logic and statistics or ignore them. China is not the only case of such hateful comments, I have been hearing of the same on India: poverty, too much diversity to be called a country, corruption, caste issues, South Asian hegemon, Zionist regime, pseudo democracy, economy that is only dependent on outsourcing etc…etc…

Leave apart the countries, even there are people who are critical of your religion, your nationality, your color and even how you look.

Does it make any difference?

 

[CardSharp]

What difference that it makes even if somebody is “gleeful” of Chinese collapse. You find different kind of people in different facets of life, internet being one. Either you counter them with your logic and statistics or ignore them. China is not the only case of such hateful comments, I have been hearing of the same on India: poverty, too much diversity to be called a country, corruption, caste issues, South Asian hegemon, Zionist regime, pseudo democracy, economy that is only dependent on outsourcing etc…etc…

Leave apart the countries, even there are people who are critical of your religion, your nationality, your color and even how you look.

Does it make any difference?

Then what are we doing here?