China's Century — or India's?

[Jade]

joke of the month

I don’t at all believe in authoritarian/dictatorship form of governance. Moreover, the threshold to take shocks in authoritarian is minimal. Another Tiananmen square and your growth will go south

---------- Post added at 01:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:01 PM ----------

Ughh!! How many times have I heard that before.

Western propaganda

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Should you be worried? I'd say yes, because the Chinese bubble is bound to burst sooner than later. According to basic economics, strong domestic demand is what the ball game is all about which is the most important factor that drives a country's GDP, offering the economy protection from external shocks. China has no such cushion. Its economy is overly dependent on investment and exports.

I don’t at all believe in authoritarian/dictatorship form of governance. Moreover, the threshold to take shocks in authoritarian is minimal. Another Tiananmen square and your growth will go south

Hahaha. The reality is that India's growth is sinking to 7%, even before they even managed to enter the double-digit race in the first place. While China's has already had several decades of double-digit growth, and even today is still the fastest growing major economy in the world.

I am glad though, it seems Indians have given up on trying to beat us via competition, and are now simply hoping that we will collapse.

P.S. Exports make up only 27% of China's GDP, according to the World Bank.

P.S.S. Hong Kong has never been a democracy, yet our income and social indicators are equal to that of the first-world countries. This is the future of the mainland as well, it shows what a Chinese society can achieve, after only a few short decades of development.

 

[beijingwalker]

Countries pursue their on economic policies based on necessities, not any set cultural pattern, certain parts of history are always meant to mirror itself in some ways, Singapore and Hong Kong have a very different economy to Taiwan and Japan, as both are almost entirely service driven economy, with Hong Kong playing a bigger role in Financial services and Singapore as a major transit and tourism hub. Japan is a highly dependent export driven economy based on high tech consumer goods, and China is a manufacturing hub of low tech goods, and component parts - why? Human capital makes it necessary and efficient to do so. Hopefully we are not foolish enough to follow Japan's economy of export dependency, and financial policies that lead to the lost decade for them. China opening up it's market does not mean it will be more like India, it only means a re-balancing of trade model and increasing of consumerism clout something which Indian economy is far from being able to achieve at the present.

you just dont get it,yes,different countries may develop differently and focus on different thing when developing,but common cultural and ethical background can always bring countries with similiar cultural background similiar result,as you can see this pattern in every part of world.Japan and four Asian tigers all share common Confucian background.no matter how different they choose to develop their country,they all achieve similiar result._super fast economic and scientific growth.actually in the past half a century,the world has seen this pattern several times in East Asia.and based on the law of average,for such a long time the fastest growing economies in the world only concentrate in this small part of the world,the chance for that is almost zero.(we have roughly 200 countries on this planet)

so the political system is not the only deciding factor in how a country develop,other factors are probably more important,a country's culture,hisotry,ethics ,values....A country's political system can change all the time,but cultures dont,at least not as fast.cultures are the ones that really impact a country longterm.so very likely the case is in the end what brings the final result is this country's cultural background,values,ethics...

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

^^^ That is true.

East Asian countries have shown that they are capable of reaching first-world standards within a few short decades of development. This includes places like Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore... all three of which have a majority Chinese population.

These East Asian countries all developed under authoritarian governments, they only became democratic once they had already become fully developed countries.

No East Asian country has fallen into the middle-income trap, like what happened in Latin America. After development is complete, East Asian countries turn into high-income nations.

This does not hold true for other regions in the world, including India's region.

 

[ChinaToday]

I don’t at all believe in authoritarian/dictatorship form of governance. Moreover, the threshold to take shocks in authoritarian is minimal. Another Tiananmen square and your growth will go south

we all live in one form of authoritarian/dictatorship the only different is you get to elect your authoritarian/dictatorship,dont bet on there is another tiananmen square as long as our economy is doing fine it wont happen.overall your arguement is very weak, you seem to forget the usa debt and the euro economy crisis at the moment.

 

[Jade]

Hahaha. The reality is that India's growth is sinking to 7%, even before they even managed to enter the double-digit race in the first place. While China's has already had several decades of double-digit growth, and even today is still the fastest growing major economy in the world.

I am glad though, it seems Indians have given up on trying to beat us via competition, and are now simply hoping that we will collapse.

P.S. Exports make up only 27% of China's GDP, according to the World Bank.

P.S.S. Hong Kong has never been a democracy, yet our income and social indicators are equal to that of the first-world countries. This is the future of the mainland as well, it shows what a Chinese society can achieve, after only a few short decades of development.

we all live in one form of authoritarian/dictatorship the only different is you get to elect your authoritarian/dictatorship,dont bet on there is another tiananmen square as long as our economy is doing fine it wont happen.overall your arguement is very weak, you seem to forget the usa debt and the euro economy crisis at the moment.

I have a class now, I will reply to you once I come back

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I have a class now, I will reply to you once I come back

Don't forget post #19.

 

[Anonymous user]

^^^ That is true.

East Asian countries have shown that they are capable of reaching first-world standards within a few short decades of development. This includes places like Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore... all three of which have a majority Chinese population.

These East Asian countries all developed under authoritarian governments, they only became democratic once they had already become fully developed countries.

No East Asian country has fallen into the middle-income trap, like what happened in Latin America. After development is complete, East Asian countries turn into high-income nations.

This does not hold true for other regions in the world, including India's region.

Mate out of curiosity were you from HK originally?

I agree on Singapore's end about the authoritarian leadership, that 100% holds for the early years of our nation. Many still believes it does till today lol

 

[ChinaToday]

Your sarcastic comment is not only in bad taste, it reeks of an inferiority complex and lack of self confidence in your country, plus ignorance of economic models.

Should you be worried? I'd say yes, because the Chinese bubble is bound to burst sooner than later. According to basic economics, strong domestic demand is what the ball game is all about which is the most important factor that drives a country's GDP, offering the economy protection from external shocks. China has no such cushion. Its economy is overly dependent on investment and exports.

Now once these exports and investments dry up due to various external factors, China's economy will slump. It'll be a long hard grind from there on whilst India would continue steaming ahead.

Go India, go!

LOL 4x your GDP and 10x your foreign reserves and we have an inferiority and lack of confident compare to INdia?????? wake up dude

oh yeah only china has bubble and india dont LOL

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Mate out of curiosity were you from HK originally?

I agree on Singapore's end about the authoritarian leadership, that 100% holds for the early years of our nation. Many still believes it does till today lol

Yes buddy, I am a 香港人。

I have always felt that Hong Kong and Singapore were very similar. Both have majority Chinese populations (HK is mostly Cantonese, while Singapore is mostly Hokkien), both are islands, both were former British colonies, and both always rank near the top of any rankings on global competitiveness.

Hong Kong has never been a democracy, while Singapore is more of a "Hybrid" system, not a full democracy either.

Also, both of us have to import our drinking water from our neighbours. One of the downsides of being an island, not many resources.

 

[Tshering22]

I don’t at all believe in authoritarian/dictatorship form of governance. Moreover, the threshold to take shocks in authoritarian is minimal. Another Tiananmen square and your growth will go south

It should not be totally authoritarian but at least semi-authoritarian. Especially for a country with more than 1 billion people. Otherwise the present chaos, scams, poverty, corruption, power cuts, water cuts etc will continue to happen. Unless your type of ultra-democratic liberals realize this, our country will keep suffering.

 

[somebozo]

Indians are soo desperate yet they only argument is democracy democracy democracy...the same democracy which is mired in worst human rights crisis, corruption and as per the two latest news:

1. The biggest stake holders in Swiss offshore banking are Indians.
2. China has been touted as much faster in building world class education and scientefic institutes while India policy is "quantity over quality".
3. So far, the entire Indian industry growth point is cheap labour and cost cutting. While China is preparing to leap to second generation of industrialization where in invents new tech and improve on the existing one.
4. Articles of these kind are well written by paid journalist for PR purpose - that is the job of PR firms and India is the largest client base for PR firms these days. Which means Indian politicians make a lot of kick back too.
5. After all India has been ranked at ethically worst when it comes to bribing and is one the top briber in the world.

 

[Fantasy]

you just dont get it,yes,different countries may develop differently and focus on different thing when developing,but common cultural and ethical background can always bring countries with similiar cultural background similiar result,as you can see this pattern in every part of world.Japan and four Asian tigers all share common Confucian background.no matter how different they choose to develop their country,they all achieve similiar result._super fast economic and scientific growth.actually in the past half a century,the world has seen this pattern several times in East Asia.and based on the law of average,for such a long time the fastest growing economies in the world only concentrate in this small part of the world,the chance for that is almost zero.(we have roughly 200 countries on this planet)

so the political system is not the only deciding factor in how a country develop,other factors are probably more important,a country's culture,hisotry,ethics ,values....A country's political system can change all the time,but cultures dont,at least not as fast.cultures are the ones that really impact a country longterm.so very likely the case is in the end what brings the final result is this country's cultural background,values,ethics...

Being industrial, more competitive, and working harder is not equal Confucianism, i hope your don't attribute it in such a foolish term. Success worked for can be taken away through complacency and ego-centrism as well as self thought stupidity, don't forget that.

 

[nForce]

Well, the Indians are so desperate for optimism that they post the thread twice. ^^

Ohh.. yeah..we are so devoid of motivation and enthusiasm that we need to draw inspiration from posting threads in some forum.

Hapless....

 

[Abingdonboy]

No one is going to "own" a century, who "owned" the 20th Century? Don't say US- remember at the start of the 20th the US economy was on its knees and for the middle Nazi Germany was a major Powerhouse. But what I would say regarding China VS India:

My job has taken me to both China and India- Dehli, Mumbai, Amritsar,Chandigarh/Beijing,Shanghai,,Hong Kong

And my comments are China is all style with no substance. It appears the GOVT is spending too much money trying to show off their success and show to the world that their system works- there is a shuttle train from the airport to the city in Shanghai that travels 300kph/hour, it is entirely pointless as the journey only takes about 7 mins but it ks a clear statement to all those entering China. It's a sham- I saw lots lf nice buildings out of my hotel window but then I couldn't check my emails or access my company's site from my laptop using the WIFI as they were all censored. Whilst there were some genuinely nice people in China most were insular and indifferent to my/any foreigner's presence and I was very wary lf the police and felt very uncomfortable whilst lutside of the hotel.


In india there isn't the glitz and the glam but the "bottom-up" approach is reaping tangible benefits and actually benefiting the Indian people. And the people themselves lived up to their stereotype- truly friendly and warm and willing to help/assist and joke.


I'd rather be a poor man in India and ve truly free than a rich man in China who always has to look over his shoulder.