China-US military conflict over Taiwan and South China Sea spiraling out of control: Global Times

[Figaro]

Have you heard of Pearl Harbour attack during WWII? It was a somewhat high stakes, but a Brilliant Move by... Americans!

Think a bit why am I saying that.

It depends ... if the Chinese decide to attack US military head on, then yes that would be a Pearl Harbor like incident and trigger all out war. But should China just attack Taiwan instead of targeting US forces, then there is a good chance the US might not attack China back in force but instead resort to total economic/technological sanctions on China (which would achieve a much greater effect than any military response ever will with zero loss of American life). I somewhat doubt the USN will risk the entirety of PACOM and nuclear war with China when it mount a sufficient retaliation in the form of economics and technology which would have an extremely severe effect.

 

[Paul2]

It is conspiracy theories and not true. The Americans don't know that will happen.

They may well not known, but it was an extremely convenient for American establishment, it was basically Roosevelt's wet dream come true.

They very much expected for something like that to happen, and almost baited Japanese into doing it.

Japanese exceeded all of their expectations, and yes Americans did not anticipate an opener on a such spectacular scale from them, but to the ends it was all the same.

 

[zhxy]

It depends ... if the Chinese decide to attack US military head on, then yes that would be a Pearl Harbor like incident and trigger all out war. But should China just attack Taiwan instead of targeting US forces, then there is a good chance the US might not attack China back in force but instead resort to total economic/technological sanctions on China (which would achieve a much greater effect than any military response ever will with zero loss of American life).

I thought of another scenario:

China attacks Taiwan. The US will provide aid to Taiwan, if China does not shoot down US transport planes and ships, the US will give more aid to Taiwan. If China dared to shoot it down, the US would see it as a good reason to condemn it and start attacking China. At the same time, the US will economically embargo and blockade of sea lanes, and seize every Chinese merchant ship it discovers in the oceans.

 

[zhxy]

They may well not known, but it was an extremely convenient for American establishment, it was basically Roosevelt's wet dream come true.

They very much expected for something like that to happen, and almost baited Japanese into doing it.

Japanese exceeded all of their expectations, and yes Americans did not anticipate an opener on a such spectacular scale from them, but to the ends it was all the same.

The Japanese were not entirely wrong in attacking the Pearl Harbor. They continually gambled their national destiny and won each time. From the Sino-Japanese War to the Russo-Japanese War. Unfortunately, this time they failed and ended their Great East Asia dream

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

TSMC—Samsung was a virtual duopoly for the last 3 major nodes. And TW has complete dominance over mass produced legacy nodes as well.

Infineon, TI, ST themselves only use own fabs for very few things, like SOI, and go to TW for volume runs.

Not to say that a giant part of equipment, and consumables supply chain is in TW as well.

For some things like specialty resists, few types of nanometric actuators, probes there are only 1 supplier for the whole world.

what equipment supply chain is in TW? They don't have their own etch, deposition or litho suppliers.

that's mostly due to price. if forced to be replaced, they will be replaced.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

They may well not known, but it was an extremely convenient for American establishment, it was basically Roosevelt's wet dream come true.

They very much expected for something like that to happen, and almost baited Japanese into doing it.

Japanese exceeded all of their expectations, and yes Americans did not anticipate an opener on a such spectacular scale from them, but to the ends it was all the same.

Japan had 1/8 US GDP and 1/5 US population in 1942. They never stood a chance.

China has 75% US nominal GDP, 2x US PPP GDP, and 4x US population in 2020.

For comparison Soviets in 1975 were about 60% US nominal GDP and 1.5x US population.

It depends ... if the Chinese decide to attack US military head on, then yes that would be a Pearl Harbor like incident and trigger all out war. But should China just attack Taiwan instead of targeting US forces, then there is a good chance the US might not attack China back in force but instead resort to total economic/technological sanctions on China (which would achieve a much greater effect than any military response ever will with zero loss of American life). I somewhat doubt the USN will risk the entirety of PACOM and nuclear war with China when it mount a sufficient retaliation in the form of economics and technology which would have an extremely severe effect.

US can no more win against PRC today than it could against the Warsaw Pact in 1975. However many members of the US public thinks that China is weaker than Iraq and would be easily defeated, much like Hitler believed the Soviets were weak and able to be easily defeated within weeks of Operation Barbarossa. We all know where this arrogance got the Third Reich.