China to overtake U.S. economy this year, World Bank says

[VCheng]

So it's time to force 70 years old men to work again ...

May be?

Yup that is the big issue of supporting the retiree but do you believe over 70% of China population won't be in the working age group in the future?

I inflate this number just to show no matter how big of an aging population China face won't impeach or turn it into economy crisis for China

Here you go:

 

[sincity]

May be?



Here you go:

Thank for the chart, the chart show 250 millions Chinese will be in the retired age group in 2030 and add to 250 millions of young Chinese not fit to work that 500 millions out of 1.3 billions population. The number alone is stagering but you compare it to the size of China population, the number of retiree is troublesome to China but not a major crisis China will have to face in the future.

 

[VCheng]

Thank for the chart, the chart show 250 millions Chinese will be in the retired age group in 2030 and add to 250 millions of young Chinese not fit to work that 500 millions out of 1.3 billions population. The number alone is stagering but you compare it to the size of China population, the number of retiree is troublesome to China but not a major crisis China will have to face in the future.

Oh, I have no doubt China will meet the challenge. It must. But it also means that supremacy or dominance is not assured, just like it is not for USA as well. Nations that work best and hard overall, will dominate, whoever those might be.

 

[BoQ77]

Thank for the chart, the chart show 250 millions Chinese will be in the retired age group in 2030 and add to 250 millions of young Chinese not fit to work that 500 millions out of 1.3 billions population. The number alone is stagering but you compare it to the size of China population, the number of retiree is troublesome to China but not a major crisis China will have to face in the future.

There's always a buffer of U15/U22 population ... which is both not work and consume much ... for food, clothes, education, ...

And below is the rate between working age band / old age

Infograph: Numbers that Define China by Melody Yuan

According to Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics, China`s working age population -composed by those aged 15 to 59- totaled 932.27 million last year. That number represents a decline of 3.45 million from 2011. China’s working age population in 2012 was 0.6% less than in 2011 and the number of workers will decrease every year until about 2030.

 

[sincity]

Oh, I have no doubt China will meet the challenge. It must. But it also means that supremacy or dominance is not assured, just like it is not for USA as well. Nations that work best and hard overall, will dominate, whoever those might be.

Nothing last in this world in a modern time harder for any nation to reign supreme and be a sole dominant nation in this world. Just need one major event to crumble any world power in this world.

There's always a buffer of U15/U22 population ... which is both not work and consume much ... for food, clothes, education, ...

This kind of problem all nation have to face not just China.

 

[BoQ77]

This kind of problem all nation have to face not just China.

As I wrote, when 2 or 3 child together take care of their parents, grandparents ( maybe by tax, same ), it's easier than only child take care all, and plus 2 of his newborn ...

 

[sincity]

There's always a buffer of U15/U22 population ... which is both not work and consume much ... for food, clothes, education, ...

And below is the rate between working age band / old age

The chart you show confusing, in 1970 13.5 people in a working age, in 2030 2.5 people in a working age?

 

[BoQ77]

13.5 means 13.5 working age people per over 65 person ..

Hey child, 4 of grandparents, 2 of your parents working hard for only you.
25+ years later, it's time for you to take care all of us ... and your own child ( 1, 2, 3 ... depend on you )

 

[gambit]

China's 'Demographic Tsunami' - Businessweek

Wang Fuchuan lies in bed wearing a quilted black jacket, with two comforters pulled up to his chin to keep out the chilly November air. The heating at the Beijing Songtang Caring Hospice is broken, and the 90-year-old’s nostrils are stuffed with toilet paper to stop perpetual dripping. Cockroaches scurry across the floor of his room, which has no toilet or running water. His possessions, a few articles of clothing, are in a plastic bag under his bed next to a pink plastic wash bowl with a sliver of soap. His only entertainment is a transistor radio.

Wang counts himself lucky. While he has no family or savings, he fought against the Japanese and the Kuomintang in the 1940s, so the government pays the clinic’s monthly fee of 2,000 yuan ($315). His 200-yuan pension buys food. “A lot of people my age can’t afford to be here,” Wang says. “The food isn’t too good, but I have nothing else to complain about.”

China has about 38,000 institutions with 2.7 million beds serving the elderly, enough for about 1.6 percent of the population over 60, according to the World Bank. That compares with about 8 percent in developed countries, the bank says.

Remember...This is the same World Bank that everyone is cheerfully citing for China...

A 2009 survey by a group of Chinese academics of 140 nursing homes in Nanjing found that fewer than a third employed a doctor or a nurse. Most of the staff were rural migrant workers with minimal training. “The goal at these homes is subsistence for residents whose children can’t take care of them,” says Zhanlian Feng, a gerontologist at Brown University who wrote a paper based on the survey in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. Many clinics refuse people who require full-time nursing. Others may force out residents once they become too needy, he says.

There are no industry standards and little government oversight, much as in the U.S. decades ago, Feng says. In August the state-run China Daily ran a story about a man in Anhui province who discovered that workers at a local nursing home tied his father’s hands to his bed for 11 hours a night.

Unlike the US, China is not an immigrant country. Furthermore, China is not seen to be a 'land of opportunity' like how the US is perceived, even to this day. The US will continue to benefit from immigration while China struggles with the 'guns vs noodles' dilemma.

 

[Tractor]

China a good place to live now and near future.
Sorry for my empty words with my true feeling.

 

[senheiser]

No. Because of the aging population and the gender imbalance issues created by the 'one child' policy.

and you will have a long term IQ problem

 

[Beidou2020]

Aging is not a problem for China. Just western propaganda to find problems to massage western egos of China's rise and eventually surpassing the US (already surpassed them in many areas). The usual white worshipping South Asians and Middle Easterners will buy these propaganda as usual.

Retirement age will be increased pretty soon to around 65-70. It's way too low right now as the life expectancy of Chinese people has increased over the decades. 50 years of age was considered 'old' in the 1940's. But now 80 years is considered old in 2014. Human life expectancy will continue to increase over the years and 90 years of age will be the norm.

Chinese economy won't be run by a growing labour force like previous decades as wages are rising and automation is already replacing labour in many sectors of manufacturing. Low cost labour intensive manufacturing is already leaving China and that manufacturing is replaced with high tech capital intensive manufacturing and services.

China is an incredibly resilient economy and country. We will adjust when it is needed.

 

[Zsari]

So it's time to force 70 years old men to work again ...

China's retirement age is 60 for men & 50 for woman. Moving the retirement age to 65 for both genders would alleviate most of the problems. No need to force 70 years old men to work.

 

[My-Analogous]

This is the same World Bank that opined that 'China will grow old before getting rich'.

The same World Bank that proposed that China relax the 'one child' policy at woman's age of 35 and older starting in 2010, then decreasing that age level by one year annually to reduce the odds of population shock.

The difference between the US and China, and using post WW II US as an example of growth, is that the US never had the 'guns vs butter' problem post WW II, whereas China today have to contend with educating a population that came out poverty imposed by communism, building infrastructures, competing with established major economic powers, and many more issues. Essentially, China have, or will have, a 'guns vs noodles' problem. Assume that China will economically surpassed US, does that guarantee a long term lead ? No. Because of the aging population and the gender imbalance issues created by the 'one child' policy.

One child policy is already end and now china having two child policy

 

[TaiShang]

Indian doesn't know ?

It is all about managing human capital.

India does not know how democracy (good governance) work, as well.