China to overtake U.S. economy this year, World Bank says

[VCheng]

This is the same World Bank that opined that 'China will grow old before getting rich'.

The same World Bank that proposed that China relax the 'one child' policy at woman's age of 35 and older starting in 2010, then decreasing that age level by one year annually to reduce the odds of population shock.

The difference between the US and China, and using post WW II US as an example of growth, is that the US never had the 'guns vs butter' problem post WW II, whereas China today have to contend with educating a population that came out poverty imposed by communism, building infrastructures, competing with established major economic powers, and many more issues. Essentially, China have, or will have, a 'guns vs noodles' problem. Assume that China will economically surpassed US, does that guarantee a long term lead ? No. Because of the aging population and the gender imbalance issues created by the 'one child' policy.

Come on, please let them celebrate!

China's demographics will take care of this on its own.

 

[sincity]

This is the same World Bank that opined that 'China will grow old before getting rich'.

The same World Bank that proposed that China relax the 'one child' policy at woman's age of 35 and older starting in 2010, then decreasing that age level by one year annually to reduce the odds of population shock.

The difference between the US and China, and using post WW II US as an example of growth, is that the US never had the 'guns vs butter' problem post WW II, whereas China today have to contend with educating a population that came out poverty imposed by communism, building infrastructures, competing with established major economic powers, and many more issues. Essentially, China have, or will have, a 'guns vs noodles' problem. Assume that China will economically surpassed US, does that guarantee a long term lead ? No. Because of the aging population and the gender imbalance issues created by the 'one child' policy.

China population still 4 time of the US no matter how much the aging China population will be, China still have enough young people to compete with the US. China population still 1.3 billions and right now they ease up on 1 child policy.

Big problem for a small population to face an aging population but with a large population of China, aging population is overblown by many expert.

 

[BoQ77]

China should keep one-child policy, that could help China to double the PPP calculation comparing to USA.

Limit household, while spend more to one-child.

Chinese pupils continue to lead the rally of good pupil comparing to other countries.

More fat people, more luxury goods consumption, more billionaire ..

 

[VCheng]

China population still 4 time of the US no matter how much the aging China population will be, China still have enough young people to compete with the US. China population still 1.3 billions and right now they ease up on 1 child policy.

Big problem for a small population to face an aging population but with a large population of China, aging population is overblown by many expert.

It is not just the absolute numbers. The distribution of ages across the population pyramid is what is important in determining the ratio of workers to non-workers, and this is where China has a huge problem.

 

[TaiShang]

China should keep one-child policy, that could help China to double the PPP calculation comparing to USA.

Limit household, while spend more to one-child.

Chinese pupils continue to lead the rally of good pupil comparing to other countries.

More fat people, more luxury goods consumption, more billionaire ..

One-Child Policy has already been very much scrapped. When the right time comes (soon, I believe) the Two-Child Policy will be eased, too. It is only a matter of national wealth to sustain a growing population.

China knows population is power.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Assume that China will economically surpassed US, does that guarantee a long term lead ? No. Because of the aging population and the gender imbalance issues created by the 'one child' policy.

The one-child policy has already been scrapped.

Several decades before any of these "demographic problems" were supposed to start appearing.

That's the thing about demographic predictions, they take several decades before coming to fruition.

Whereas policies can be changed right away. And they were just changed.

Sorry @VCheng.

 

[sincity]

It is not just the absolute numbers. The distribution of ages across the population pyramid is what is important in determining the ratio of workers to non-workers, and this is where China has a huge problem.

Let play with number then, for example of 900 millions of Chinese aren't at the working age and substract from the 1.3 billions population China still left 400 millions of Chinese in the working age. 400 millions is bigger than the US population in the combination with all age group.

 

[BoQ77]

One-Child Policy has already been very much scrapped. When the right time comes (soon, I believe) the Two-Child Policy will be eased, too. It is only a matter of national wealth to sustain a growing population.

China knows population is power.

Indian doesn't know ?

 

[sincity]

China with 1.3 billions population that the last thing they worry about their aging population.

 

[BoQ77]

Let play with number then, for example of 900 millions of Chinese aren't at the working age and substract from the 1.3 billions population China still left 400 millions of Chinese in the working age. 400 millions is bigger than the US population in the combination with all age group.

I guess, China would avoid some big war, because during war, 1 young soldiers death cause 6 parents and grandparents lonely in oldies ... a war, for example with India may cause 3-5 million deaths, ...and much more of disability ... maybe 10-15 million ?

 

[VCheng]

Let play with number then, for example of 900 millions of Chinese aren't at the working age and substract from the 1.3 billions population China still left 400 millions of Chinese in the working age. 400 millions is bigger than the US population in the combination with all age group.

But what are the social and economic effects of those 400 million working Chinese who have to support the 900 million non-working ones? It is relative.

 

[sincity]

Indian doesn't know ?

India don't have enough land to support a large population compare to China 3 time the size of India. Large population with bigger land mass is more sustainable for growth and development.

 

[BoQ77]

But what are the social and economic effects of those 400 million working Chinese who have to support the 900 million non-working ones? It is relative.

So it's time to force 70 years old men to work again ...

 

[sincity]

But what are the social and economic effects of those 400 million working Chinese who have to support the 900 million non-working ones? It is relative.

Yup that is the big issue of supporting the retiree but do you believe over 70% of China population won't be in the working age group in the future?

I inflate this number just to show no matter how big of an aging population China face won't impeach or turn it into economy crisis for China

 

[BoQ77]

When parents gave birth their only child in 1978, start to retire ... that means NOW.
Their only child must work for him/herself and 2 of his/her parents ... and 4 of his/her grandparents, and his/her 1st child ...

And when two-child policy release, then he/she must work for 2nd child too ...

Too heavy work for current working generation ...

so two-child policy now cause current working ages is the heaviest generation ...