anon45
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It is not my opinion that the US will abrogate the treaty, but since the shoal's sovereignty is disputed and since we have not ratified UNCLOS there really is no basis for our country to recognize any country's claim to the shoal. However, when we had bases in the Philippines, the USN in conjuction with the Philippine military used those rocks as target practice. Whether that signifies implicit recognition of sovereignty is up to debate.
Granted the US doesn't have the strongest legal standing to recognize the Philippine's claims (though I should note that the US does agree to the tenets of UNCLOS when it comes to territorial and eez limits), but the basis for a US intervention in this scenario wouldn't be a recognition of the Philippine's claims, but the recognition that an unprovoked hostile attack occured on Filipino navy vessels somewhere in the Pacific (which are the terms for intervention).
Of course, but dealing with these issues is a 2 way street. It is also the responsibility of China to uphold the stability of the region. Much like the US should be cautious in escalation, China should be equally cautious, as the US isn't the Philippines, but as you described an equally huge nation that has the capacity to resist, fight back, and win. If the US decided to escort the Filipino naval vessels escorting the Filipino fishing vessels to the shoal once or twice, it would be a relatively low risk move that proves a point and essentially leaves the end result in China's hands, war or peace. Relatively low risk while towing the line.Since the potential conflict involves a huge nation that has the capacity to resist and fight back, the consequences to the world economy and stability is simply too great to risk for a few uninhabitable rocks. If the situation involved conflict over the Philippine mainland, or the all out destruction of their military, then I am of the opinion that we are obligated to help militarily.
I suppose what I am trying to say is, the Filipinoes do not appreciate the gravity of what they are asking. They think we should shoot it out or intimidate the Chinese over this while they watch in the sidelines. While I have no doubt we have the capacity to defeat PLAN and PLAAF, my fear is a shooting war over some neglected rocks will lead to a much larger conflict (which I also strongly believe we will prevail) that would cost lives on all sides, and for what, a bunch of semi submerge rocks that no one in our country except for a few knew existed.
I certainly hope Filipinos don't believe we'd go in head first guns blazing, because they'd be sorely disappointed.
That said a reaction would be required under the auspices of the MDT.
Unfortunately the issue has been made bigger than simply a few submerged rocks, it is also an issue of US potency in Asia and an issue of the potency of international law, and to China and the Philippines an issue of pride, nationalism and sovereignty. The shoal themselves and their resources are actually a very marginal part of it to the government's involved except in regards to it being a piece of what both sides consider their sovereign territory.
All of Asia will note the reaction of the US and take it into account in their future dealings.