China’s strategy puts U.S. in dilemma on Korean Peninsula

[beijingwalker]

The Korea Herald
China’s strategy puts U.S. in dilemma on Korean Peninsula

2012-07-12 19:42

China’s strategic imprint, whether direct or indirect, has been increasingly tied to the security and stability of the Korean Peninsula. With China’s ongoing military transformation and its growing capabilities, however, Beijing will have increasingly greater leverage and options to shape the direction and outcomes of potential crisis scenarios on the Korean Peninsula, on China’s terms.

For over a decade, China’s geopolitical and economic rise has given its diplomacy more leverage in managing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Since 2003, Beijing has been more proactive in mitigating crises by providing a critical economic lifeline ― energy and food aid ― to North Korea. At the same time, however, Beijing has aimed to avert a North Korean collapse to prevent a Korean reunification, which would likely undermine China’s regional geopolitical influence by removing the traditional strategic buffer provided by North Korea.

The key concern for the U.S.-ROK Alliance, however, is the prevailing uncertainty in ascertaining Chinese strategic intentions, actions and responses in potential crises centered on the Korean Peninsula.

From the U.S.-ROK perspective, China’s North Korea policy is riddled with strategic ambiguity and divergence, particularly in the question of possible Korean reunification paths.

The range of potential conflict scenarios on the Korean Peninsula has widened with traditional conventional threats amplified by a mix of low intensity, asymmetric and non-linear threats or contingencies.

With regard to North Korea, China’s strategy in these contingencies would likely aim at: (1) protecting China’s military-strategic environment; (2) maintaining security and stability along the Sino-North Korean border; (3) sustaining economic development and political stability in three Chinese provinces bordering North Korea; and (4) ensuring that U.S. forces deployed in Korea remain below the 38th parallel.

For example, in a conventional scenario, China’s key strategic objective would focus on limiting the scope and intensity of the conflict by delineating clear air, sea and land buffer zones (conflict limit lines) beyond which U.S.-ROK forces would not operate. In doing so, Beijing would attempt to preclude the U.S.-ROK naval-and-air assets from entering strategically vital areas along China’s periphery, so-called “near-seas” ― the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. Consequently, the U.S. would need to construct alternative points of entry for reinforcements, which could potentially delay initial and follow-on responses.

On the other end of the conflict spectrum, where the political and socio-economic conditions in North Korea deteriorate further and Kim Jong-un’s military-state apparatus is on the edge of collapse, China’s intervention is a likely possibility. Under this scenario, Beijing may attempt to restore stability and security in contiguous border areas in order to prevent massive refugee flows by providing emergency food, medical and energy supplies, while strengthening controls in and around vital border crossings with North Korea.

In the event of North Korea’s impending collapse, China may deploy selected PLA units into North Korea, with or without a formal request by Pyongyang or international authorization by the UN, if the situation deteriorates rapidly. China may thus attempt to deter both the U.S. and South Korea from any direct involvement in the North, and signal the U.S. not to deploy its troops above the 38th parallel.

According to PLA experts, China does have contingency plans in place for the PLA to conduct three types of missions in North Korea: humanitarian missions ― assisting refugees or providing help after a natural disaster; peacekeeping or “order keeping” ― internal control missions such as serving as civil police; and “environmental control” missions to minimize nuclear contamination from a potential strike on North Korean nuclear facilities, or securing nuclear weapons and fissile materials in the aftermath of North Korea’s collapse.

Meanwhile, in a range of low-intensity conflict scenarios, where North Korea may conduct limited but diversified military operations to achieve various political and strategic aims against specific South Korean targets, China is unlikely to support any unilateral punitive responses by the U.S.-ROK alliance vis--vis North Korea.

China’s rise arguably presents a range of new strategic complexities and operational dilemmas for South Korea as well as the U.S.-ROK alliance. Accordingly, U.S.-ROK defense planners will increasingly tabulate China and its emerging military capabilities into their respective defense and security planning dynamics.

With the recently announced U.S. “rebalancing” strategy in the Asia-Pacific, the question is to what degree will both China and the U.S. adopt “stealth benchmarking” strategies in order to deny, limit or even interfere with each other’s strategic presence in the region. This would imply adopting a portfolio of “capability domains” or competencies that may mitigate or offset a potential adversary’s military capabilities and freedom of action.

In order to mitigate security uncertainties, tensions, and risks, however, it is imperative to enhance military diplomacy and dialogue between China, U.S., North and South Korea that would provide a mechanism for defusing potential crises. For a start, this would entail the need to better understand the modalities and country-specific responses to various contingencies and crisis scenarios in and around the Korean Peninsula.

By Michael Raska

 

[kawaraj]

I don't know what the article is talking about.

China has obligations to seal the current border if the war treaty still valid after 1950s and the US is still stationed in South Korea. So it's not weather your PLA will deploy troops but HOW to deploy.

this Michael Raska the writer is an Idi0t.

 

[Fanling Monk]

I'm sure different scenario and understanding has been worked out by the US and China concerning the North Korean situations the last couple of years. The last visit by the China defense minister to the US probably conveyed China's positions in this matter with details ironed out by lesser official. The last thing both countries want to see is an unnecessary military misunderstandings between the two, directly or in directly. Not much new here to offer.

 

[Korean]

Well, that article was written by a clueless editor.

For over a decade, China’s geopolitical and economic rise has given its diplomacy more leverage in managing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

China's "leverage" on North Korean issues has been on the decline because of China's "unconditional backing" of North Korea.

In the event of North Korea’s impending collapse, China may deploy selected PLA units into North Korea, with or without a formal request by Pyongyang or international authorization by the UN, if the situation deteriorates rapidly.

And the PLA would be entering an all out war zone because of the ROK's "Invade NK at the first available opportunity" policy.

China may thus attempt to deter both the U.S. and South Korea from any direct involvement in the North, and signal the U.S. not to deploy its troops above the 38th parallel.

Which is pointless because the ROK and US troops would be in North Korea before the PLA does.

securing nuclear weapons and fissile materials in the aftermath of North Korea’s collapse.

The PLA doesn't have to worry about this. The Futenma marine's job is to seize the North Korean nuke stockpile in the opening hours of the war. Those nukes would have been long gone in the matter of hours so the PLA doesn't have to be concerned about.

I'm sure different scenario and understanding has been worked out by the US and China concerning the North Korean situations the last couple of years. The last visit by the China defense minister to the US probably conveyed China's positions in this matter with details ironed out by lesser official.

The Chinese position is that they are willing to let the ROK take over North Korea under the condition of no US military presence above the DMZ, only the ROK troops allowed.

 

[applesauce]

Well, that article was written by a clueless editor.

lol

China's "leverage" on North Korean issues has been on the decline because of China's "unconditional backing" of North Korea.

china has always claimed that its leverage is limited, the only problem is, the leverage other people have is even less than china's

And the PLA would be entering an all out war zone because of the ROK's "Invade NK at the first available opportunity" policy.

PLA will only enter in an event the NK begins to fall apart, that or the US get a little to close for comfort. and if it means entering an all out war zone so be it, not like it hasn't happened in the past.

Which is pointless because the ROK and US troops would be in North Korea before the PLA does.

thats ur own speculation

The PLA doesn't have to worry about this. The Futenma marine's job is to seize the North Korean nuke stockpile in the opening hours of the war. Those nukes would have been long gone in the matter of hours so the PLA doesn't have to be concerned about.

yea china will sleep sooooooo soundly because the US marines guarantee that it will get all the north korean nukes why dont we all just becomes US stooges according to you then? but wait, SK is a US stooge lol.

The Chinese position is that they are willing to let the ROK take over North Korea under the condition of no US military presence above the DMZ, only the ROK troops allowed.

this is probably the minimum china will accept, so long as SK also guarantees the US leaves Korean soil.

 

[S10]

LOL @ South Korean "invade" North Korea at first opportunity. Maybe we'll have lunch in Seoul again.

 

[Korean]

china has always claimed that its leverage is limited, the only problem is, the leverage other people have is even less than china's

China and ROK are all in the same position, no leverage against North Korea.

The only party that has a leverage is the US, because of US sanctions and that a diplomatic normalization with the US is of the highest priority for the NK regime.

PLA will only enter in an event the NK begins to fall apart

That is if the PLA is ready to fight an all out war and sacrifice half a million troops.

if it means entering an all out war zone so be it, not like it hasn't happened in the past.

It's not just the PLA troops dying meaningless deaths, but the blockade of the Yellow Sea massively impacting the Chinese economy.

yea china will sleep sooooooo soundly because the US marines guarantee that it will get all the north korean nukes

Those nukes are heavy and aren't easily transportable. You can rest easy that those nukes would be under the US marine's control within 12 hours of the opening of the war.

this is probably the minimum china will accept, so long as SK also guarantees the US leaves Korean soil.

Chinese leadership is not asking for that. Only that the US troops do not permanently base in North Korea after the smokes are cleared.

Unknown to Chinese posters, Chinese leadership does discuss contingency plans on North Korea with the ROK annually, and some detail of this negotiation is leaked to the Korean press.

 

[applesauce]

China and ROK are all in the same position, no leverage against North Korea.

not quite true, here is an article on foreign policy

Cheap at Any Price - By Andrei Lankov | Foreign Policy

"As a senior South Korean diplomat once told me, "China does not have leverage when it comes to dealing with North Korea; it has a hammer." "

The only party that has a leverage is the US, because of US sanctions and that a diplomatic normalization with the US is of the highest priority for the NK regime.

I am not sure about the "only party" part but yes the US does have some levers it can pull

That is if the PLA is ready to fight an all out war and sacrifice half a million troops.

again, it has happened before so we know they will risk it if the perceived benefits from such a move out weights the costs. certainly if they think that NOT sending units in mean having the US inches away from the chinese boarder, my moneys on them sending in one of the best armed and trained division in china parked just outside of Beijing.

It's not just the PLA troops dying meaningless deaths, but the blockade of the Yellow Sea massively impacting the Chinese economy.

a blockade of the yellow sea will mean an escalation on the part of the US which is the only country that can possibly pull it off, this will indeed massive affect the economy, but not just the chinese one, but the global economy will suffer and it will destroy any chance of a supposed new korea conflict from staying local. and when it goes global and it will if the yellow is is blockaded, then all hell breaks loose, i am not quite so certain that the US will risk such a move. also the PLA deaths will not be meaningless, maybe its meaningless to you but not to the Chinese leadership and population.

Those nukes are heavy and aren't easily transportable. You can rest easy that those nukes would be under the US marine's control within 12 hours of the opening of the war.

why dont we look at this from a different point of view, since those nukes are easily found and controlled, why dont the US and SK "rest easy" since the Chinese forces can take them under control within 12 hours. you guys an save your selves some gas money

Chinese leadership is not asking for that. Only that the US troops do not permanently base in North Korea after the smokes are cleared.

they are obviously not going to openly say it, because openly saying it will mean they are plotting against NK and that will make any small cooperation that much more difficult.

Unknown to Chinese posters, Chinese leadership does discuss contingency plans on North Korea with the ROK annually, and some detail of this negotiation is leaked to the Korean press.

no my friend it is not unknown to Chinese posters, of course china has contingency plans and discussing some parts of them with SK or the US is fairly normal as in the event the plans are enacted it reduced the chance that US and Chinese forces run into each other and end up in an unwanted firefight.

 

[Korean]

"As a senior South Korean diplomat once told me, "China does not have leverage when it comes to dealing with North Korea; it has a hammer." "

A wrong analysis.

"A hammer" is useless when China cannot use it in fear of the NK regime collapse.

certainly if they think that NOT sending units in mean having the US inches away from the chinese boarder, my moneys on them sending in one of the best armed and trained division in china parked just outside of Beijing.

The war would be over before that division could arrive at Yalu river. The ROK fully intends to reach the Yalu River in 7 days.

a blockade of the yellow sea will mean an escalation on the part of the US

Ha Ha Ha, China crossing the Yalu river means an all out war! Of course the Yellow Sea will be automatically blocked and all imports and exports out of China as well, and all financial transactions. You don't trade and do financial transaction with the enemy combatant, do you?

this will indeed massive affect the economy

This is they the ROK is building a naval base in Jeju Island and conducting the tri-nation naval drill at the entrance of the Yellow Sea, because they intend on a naval blockade of the Yellow Sea if China enters the second Korean War.

it will destroy any chance of a supposed new korea conflict from staying local.

It would be China's decision to expand the war by crossing the Yalu river.
If China stays out, the war is over in a week and the dust settles.

i am not quite so certain that the US will risk such a move.

You bet they will. They drill for this maneuver every year.

since those nukes are easily found and controlled, why dont the US and SK "rest easy" since the Chinese forces can take them under control within 12 hours.

Chinese can't. Heck, the PLA couldn't move into Sichuan fast enough during the 2008 quake. If it takes days for the PLA to move around in China, then how are they supposed to move into North Korea when the seize of NK nukes require

1. A massive air assault from Chinese border involving 5,000 troops, 50 troop carrier planes and 50 helicopters. Then the Chinese commandos cannot move the 5 ton nukes out of North Korea because they lack the means to carry the nukes.

2. A massive landing from the East Sea by the ROK/US marines. This is actually feasible because the ROK landing fleet would be nearby to receive the seized nukes taken out by CH-53 or V-22.

 

[applesauce]

A wrong analysis.

"A hammer" is useless when China cannot use it in fear of the NK regime collapse.

if you had actually read, i wasn't disagreeing, non-the-less but a hammer as unlikely as it is to be used is still an option at the end of the day

The war would be over before that division could arrive at Yalu river. The ROK fully intends to reach the Yalu River in 7 days.

advance elements be be at the yalu in 45 mintues, division size group can be there in 48 hours., you do realized the yalu is literally less than a millimeter from china?

Ha Ha Ha, China crossing the Yalu river means an all out war! Of course the Yellow Sea will be automatically blocked and all imports and exports out of China as well, and all financial transactions. You don't trade and do financial transaction with the enemy combatant, do you?

your not very smart are you? china has a proven record, china cross the yalu in the 50s, the US still dared not attack the mainland and this is at a time when the US had nukes and china didnt, sure the soviets might have covered for china, but there was no guarantees, in the 60 years since china now has a survivable nuclear arsenal, traditional MAD and(very importantly) economic MAD with the US, if you think the US will risk(actually cement) its own destruction for SK your smoking something real good, china has shown it is willing to risk nuclear destruction, in addition any chinese action is not going to be 'hurr durr we're here to fight the americans" it will be terms as policing, boarder security operation, to secure the nk land in an event of any collpase. this is not a war with the americans.

This is they the ROK is building a naval base in Jeju Island and conducting the tri-nation naval drill at the entrance of the Yellow Sea, because they intend on a naval blockade of the Yellow Sea if China enters the second Korean War.

hahahah ROK blockading china, like i said the only one capable of such a thing is the US, ROK by itself would have trouble defending its home waters in a war with china.

It would be China's decision to expand the war by crossing the Yalu river.
If China stays out, the war is over in a week and the dust settles.

again, not there to expand the war, china will be there to secure its own boarders hardly anything the US can do about that, it will be all about who can occupy more the fastest, in fact i expect very little fighting to actually occur between china and america.

You bet they will. They drill for this maneuver every year.

lol and your assuming no one else trains?

Chinese can't. Heck, the PLA couldn't move into Sichuan fast enough during the 2008 quake. If it takes days for the PLA to move around in China, then how are they supposed to move into North Korea when the seize of NK nukes require

lol you mean the same earthquake where 15,000 troops was already a part of the relief effort 24 hours later? and 135,000 troops was in the area 4 days later? and this is in a highly damage zone where roads where blocked, communications cut off and the area highly mountainous(and if anything reveals need for more helicopters), in addition the earth quake and an advance to NK would be very different? like i said, north east china is much more developed, advance elements in 45 minutes, entire armies is several days as they have been trained since the korean war, not like they didnt considered a nk collapse as a possibility and the troops protecting beijing are among the best china has and the division there is one of only 2 in china designed, equipped and trained to fight a normal american division one on one.

1. A massive air assault from Chinese border involving 5,000 troops, 50 troop carrier planes and 50 helicopters. Then the Chinese commandos cannot move the 5 ton nukes out of North Korea because they lack the means to carry the nukes.

im beginning to suspect you know nothing about what your talking about, z-8, in service since the late 70's has a max capacity of 5,000kg or about 5.5 tons

2. A massive landing from the East Sea by the ROK/US marines. This is actually feasible because the ROK landing fleet would be nearby to receive the seized nukes taken out by CH-53 or V-22.

and china cant do the same from both the land boarder and the yellow sea?

 

[Korean]

advance elements be be at the yalu in 45 mintues

And they won't attempt to cross without heavy equipment and in sufficient number, because attempting a cross with s small force is a suicide.

Not to mention that the ROKAF would have bombed all bridge connection with China within hours of the opening, so China must build a temporary bridge to move its heavy equipment, assuming it stays intact against the ROKAF precision strike against it.

if you think the US will risk(actually cement) its own destruction for SK your smoking something real good

China can't destroy either the US or ROK. You overestimate China's abilities.

china has shown it is willing to risk nuclear destruction

To the contrary China was the first country to declare no first use under any circumstance. This is the gap in reality between the Chinese leadership and its drones. While the drones shout "A Nuclear apocalypse for those opposing China!", the Chinese leadership says "We will never nuke anyone unless China's nuked first".

it will be terms as policing

You don't "police" in a war zone; you go into a war zone to fight a war.

boarder security operation

Well, the PLA can do that from its border.

to secure the nk land in an event of any collpase.

There is nothing to secure since the whole of NK would a war zone of a World War scale.

this is not a war with the americans.

Surely it is.

hahahah ROK blockading china

But that's what the tri-nation naval fleet drill for every year off the coast of Jeju Island.

again, not there to expand the war, china will be there to secure its own boarders hardly anything the US can do about that

Of course there is nothing the ROK or the US can do about the PLA when they are on the Chinese side. But they are a fair game when they cross half way into the Yalu and Tumen Rivers.

it will be all about who can occupy more the fastest

And all PLA troops within NK are fair targets.

in fact i expect very little fighting to actually occur between china and america.

The problem is that the country that commands the US troops in Korea from 2015 and onward is ROK, not USA. Of course Koreans will carpet bomb the PLA positions with its infamous 500K rocket shells since the North Korea is a ROK territory and the PLA troops are standing on the Korean land.

There is no "negotiation" about this(Just as how China won't negotiate about the status of Taiwan) and the Chinese leadership are aware of the ROK position on this issue.

im beginning to suspect you know nothing about what your talking about, z-8, in service since the late 70's has a max capacity of 5,000kg or about 5.5 tons

An helicopter cannot carry the maximum spec load in combat condition; more like 60% tops. Does China have military choppers with a 9 ton lift load?

and china cant do the same from both the land boarder and the yellow sea?

North Korean nuclear depots are near the East Sea coast line. Accordingly, the PLA must approach the target by crossing the Tumen River and make it through North Korean air defense then make it out back to China, and good luck with that.

 

[applesauce]

And they won't attempt to cross without heavy equipment and in sufficient number, because attempting a cross with s small force is a suicide.

only you would think 15000 troops is a small force, how much troops do you think the US and SK can muster in 24 hours and how far can they get into nk?

Not to mention that the ROKAF would have bombed all bridge connection with China within hours of the opening, so China must build a temporary bridge to move its heavy equipment, assuming it stays intact against the ROKAF precision strike against it.

bomb... then that give perfect justification to the PRC to declare all out war as china has been attack unprovoked by SK. in addition lols if you think ROKAF can just flying into china unoppsed and bomb bridges and etc. and again an unprovoked attack, what excuse will the US have to interveen when china retaliates?

China can't destroy either the US or ROK. You overestimate China's abilities.

i have never said china can destroy the US except in a nuclear war where everyone loses, dont pout words in my mouth, SK however, i absolutly think china overrun SK unless a full US intervention occurs, and that will not occurs if SK attacks china unproked as you have suggested

To the contrary China was the first country to declare no first use under any circumstance. This is the gap in reality between the Chinese leadership and its drones. While the drones shout "A Nuclear apocalypse for those opposing China!", the Chinese leadership says "We will never nuke anyone unless China's nuked first".

Clearly you cant read, where did i say china will strike with nukes first? i said whina will risk nuclear destruction, in the past. and now china also has a second strike capability it needs not strike first.

You don't "police" in a war zone; you go into a war zone to fight a war.

you clearing dont know how politics work, UN goes in war zones to police all the time as does nato and the US

Well, the PLA can do that from its border.

that is not for you to decide, again china is not SK noone tells it what its needs are, it decides for it self. if that requires going in nk then theres nothing anyone can do able it.

There is nothing to secure since the whole of NK would a war zone of a World War scale.

again not for you to decide whetehr they go in or not, if its a warzone comparable to ww3 so what? if they wanna go in, they will go in

Surely it is.

since you like to say stuff with little substinace, heres one for ya,

"no its not"

But that's what the tri-nation naval fleet drill for every year off the coast of Jeju Island.

again without the participation of the US, SK, japan whatever could not effectively blockcade china, i do not doubt the US naval capability, to do so is stupid.

Of course there is nothing the ROK or the US can do about the PLA when they are on the Chinese side. But they are a fair game when they cross half way into the Yalu and Tumen Rivers.

NK is not your land, you shoot at us we will shoot back, simple isnt it, but US and hopefully SK commanders are smarter than you and are not just gonna shoot indiscriminently.

And all PLA troops within NK are fair targets.

see above

The problem is that the country that commands the US troops in Korea from 2015 and onward is ROK, not USA. Of course Koreans will carpet bomb the PLA positions with its infamous 500K rocket shells since the North Korea is a ROK territory and the PLA troops are standing on the Korean land.

hahah only you think ROK can carpet bomb and china cant. and Last i check DPRK has its own government and you will be invading them, after attacking china unprovoked

There is no "negotiation" about this(Just as how China won't negotiate about the status of Taiwan) and the Chinese leadership are aware of the ROK position on this issue.

then they will never get NK back, its very simple. the US isnt next to china and china has the size population and wealth to match the US oneday thus the US cannot back taiwan forever, but china is forever next to korea and forever bigger than korea

An helicopter cannot carry the maximum spec load in combat condition; more like 60% tops. Does China have military choppers with a 9 ton lift load?

oh sure 60% because you say so lol so mr expert please tell me what calculations and observations u did to get to that 60% number

North Korean nuclear depots are near the East Sea coast line. Accordingly, the PLA must approach the target by crossing the Tumen River and make it through North Korean air defense then make it out back to China, and good luck with that.

and i dont see a problem with that, so we can end this point?

 

[Korean]

only you would think 15000 troops is a small force

Does China have means to deliver 1,5000 PLA troops by air?

[quot]how much troops do you think the US and SK can muster in 24 hours and how far can they get into nk?[/quote]
The preparation for invasion starts when the first sign of a regime collapse is detected, then the forces move in swiftly when the time is right.

bomb... then that give perfect justification to the PRC to declare all out war

The bridges aren't Chinese territory. When the bridges are taken down, a full invasion is already taking place.

in addition lols if you think ROKAF can just flying into china

I am talking about all bridges of Yalu and Tumen rivers, and there aren't that many of those. No need to bomb bridges in China.

SK however, i absolutly think china overrun SK

The US doesn't plan on a ground force reinforcement except for the Futenma marines to seize NK nukes. Why? Because the ROK ground force is strong enough to stop 1.5 million PLA troops.

if SK attacks china unproked as you have suggested

The ROK won't bomb Chinese bridges, just the bridges at Yalu and Tumen rivers.

where did i say china will strike with nukes first? i said whina will risk nuclear destruction

Which means China will nuke first.

you clearing dont know how politics work, UN goes in war zones to police all the time as does nato and the US

Well, the ROK and US don't count on a UN resolution.

that is not for you to decide, again china is not SK noone tells it what its needs are, it decides for it self.

And it has to decide if the sacrifice of 500K PLA troop's lives plus a Yellow Sea naval blockade is worth it.

if that requires going in nk then theres nothing anyone can do able it.

Sure, the PLA just invaded the ROK territory, and will be taken out with rain of rockets and bombs.

again without the participation of the US, SK, japan whatever could not effectively blockcade china

It is the US that came up with this Yellow Sea naval blockade strategy. Why the hell do you think the US is pressuring both ROK and Japan to sign a defense treaty even though both of these countries are not comfortable about the alliance? Because the US plans to put a combined fleet of all three countries on the blockade. Why is the JMSDF moving into the Yellow Sea now? Once again, because of the Yellow Sea blockade strategy.

NK is not your land

Surely it is. The ROK government was created as the sole government of all of Korea by the UN mandate back in 1948, and that mandate stands true today.

you shoot at us we will shoot back

Of course the PLA will. But given the fact those PLA troops are in North Korea whose airspace would be controlled by the ROK and US airforces plus the ROK's artillary firepower, those PLA troops wouldn't last long. An army without the air cover is as good as dead.

simple isnt it, but US and hopefully SK commanders are smarter than you and are not just gonna shoot indiscriminently.

They did shoot at the PLA indiscrimately back in the 1950s, so why question if the ROK would act any differently?

hahah only you think ROK can carpet bomb and china cant.

Because the PLAAF cannot operate in North Korean airspace controlled by the US and ROK.

Last i check DPRK has its own government and you will be invading them

The invasion requires a regime collapse situation, similar to Libya and Syria. Not before then.

after attacking china unprovoked

How many times do I have to repeat those bridges are not Chinese territory?

oh sure 60% because you say so lol so mr expert please tell me what calculations and observations u did to get to that 60% number

I looked up Z-8's spec. It has a max payload of 5 tons, both cargo and fuel. The fuel consumption at max load is very high.

i dont see a problem with that

The depot is closer to the East Sea than the Tumen River. Not only that the US/ROK landing forces can employ AAVs and armored vehicles, while the PLA commandos will have to be entirely helicopter-based.

so we can end this point?

It ends when you put your tail behind your legs and run.

 

[retaxis]

Korean your so delusional. NK can easily hold its own against skinny kpop loving SK anyday.

 

[applesauce]

Does China have means to deliver 1,5000 PLA troops by air?

clearly you dont recognize that there is a land boarder in addition to naval transports

The preparation for invasion starts when the first sign of a regime collapse is detected, then the forces move in swiftly when the time is right.

how is any different for everyone else involved?

The bridges aren't Chinese territory. When the bridges are taken down, a full invasion is already taking place.

I am talking about all bridges of Yalu and Tumen rivers, and there aren't that many of those. No need to bomb bridges in China.

The ROK won't bomb Chinese bridges, just the bridges at Yalu and Tumen rivers.

How many times do I have to repeat those bridges are not Chinese territory?

your an idiot(well, i am begining to accept that here) if you think bombing a(or several) bridge(s) which is half in chinese territory would not constitute as an attack on china(in addition to some being actualy chinese property).

The US doesn't plan on a ground force reinforcement except for the Futenma marines to seize NK nukes. Why? Because the ROK ground force is strong enough to stop 1.5 million PLA troops.

HAHAHAHAH this is among the most delusional claims among the many u have made, the UN couldnt stop china in the 50's(stalemate) led by several hundred thousand US troops and you think SK by itself can stop china in any new korean war.

Which means China will nuke first.

are you that retarted? risk nuclear destruction meaning risking other people hitting you first,

Well, the ROK and US don't count on a UN resolution.

and that has to do with what we term the intervention...how?

And it has to decide if the sacrifice of 500K PLA troop's lives plus a Yellow Sea naval blockade is worth it.

lol you think SK can inflict 500k casulaties on the PLA along with blockading the yellow sea, how cute. sk will be lucky if NK doesnt finish SK given that you think the US doesnt need to get involved other than speial forces

Sure, the PLA just invaded the ROK territory, and will be taken out with rain of rockets and bombs.

lol, just lol, go see the statement above

It is the US that came up with this Yellow Sea naval blockade strategy. Why the hell do you think the US is pressuring both ROK and Japan to sign a defense treaty even though both of these countries are not comfortable about the alliance? Because the US plans to put a combined fleet of all three countries on the blockade. Why is the JMSDF moving into the Yellow Sea now? Once again, because of the Yellow Sea blockade strategy.

or because japan has naval disputes with china? and lols if you think they'll blockade china for policing actions which will be legitimate given the huge unrest thats bound to happen on the boarders, again it comes down to, you thinking(in your delusional mind) the US will risks its neck (especially in financial terms) by going to war(a blovkade is a declearation of war) against china, when it was SK who attacked china unprovoked

Surely it is. The ROK government was created as the sole government of all of Korea by the UN mandate back in 1948, and that mandate stands true today.

provide source where SK is recognized as the sole legitamit government of all korea, last i check NK is officially represented in the UN as the DPRK

Of course the PLA will. But given the fact those PLA troops are in North Korea whose airspace would be controlled by the ROK and US airforces plus the ROK's artillary firepower, those PLA troops wouldn't last long. An army without the air cover is as good as dead.

Because the PLAAF cannot operate in North Korean airspace controlled by the US and ROK.

your're assuming the airspace is dominated by SK and your assuming SK's artilery is going to intimindate anyone, and your assuming the PLA wouldnt last even if the above was true, and finally your assuming armies havent fought and successfully held off enermies without airccover. i point you to the last korean war.

They did shoot at the PLA indiscrimately back in the 1950s, so why question if the ROK would act any differently?

just so you know, the last war saw NK survive

The invasion requires a regime collapse situation, similar to Libya and Syria. Not before then.

regime collapse does not mean the government dissapears, certain elements(like the military) will continue to offcially be the government.

I looked up Z-8's spec. It has a max payload of 5 tons, both cargo and fuel. The fuel consumption at max load is very high.

this confirms it, your an uninformed idiot arguing out of his ***, you clearly do not understand the descriptions, from the chinese manufracers own website CHANGHE AIRCRAFT INDUSTRIES GROUP
max useful load is 5000kg, not very useful if it cant take off with that, is it? (and keep in mind these for the specs for the original without subsequent improvement made over the decades

The depot is closer to the East Sea than the Tumen River. Not only that the US/ROK landing forces can employ AAVs and armored vehicles, while the PLA commandos will have to be entirely helicopter-based.

clearly you are not update to with your chinese equitpment, what with the addition of the new carrier and LPD's, and china has plenty of landing equiptment and forces especially if other equiptment is move as they would be during such an even and consider otehr equiptment that has been around with the preperation for taiwan that has been happening for the last 60 years

It ends when you put your tail behind your legs and run.

your are very mistaken there, modern china is not korea, no one blantently sinks our military ships, bombard our settlement, assasinate our ministers and gets away with it.