China-Pakistan getting together while Afghanistan becomes hub for ISI: Where does India stand?

[Arsalan]

They are confusing at time. However what is important is the geographical fact that Afghanistan will need peaceful and prosperous relations with Pakistan if they are to survive. All the talks of ISI going to over throw gov and support Taliban again is BS. The examples provided for this are from the times US used to train, feed and fight along side same Talibans they now call terrorists. Times have changed, we have learned some bitter lessons, is seems like Afghans have as well. India being a big country in the region sure play an important role but you cannot rule out Pakistan, the geography cannot be changed now and it is a fact all of us have to live with
Pakistan gov surely wants a peaceful Afghanistan not some lawless country where foreign supposed TTP scums can hide and fight us from there.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Seema Sirohi penns a letter from DC - She has such a hatred for Pakistan and love for sufi music she might even be an Afghan -- lol.

She is married to a retired US Marine (or other service member) - so her opinion should be listed to.

I disagree with her conclusion - I think Manmohan jee was smart not to get caught up in the Afghan conundrum - alas if only Pakistanis had that as a choice.

Article here, excerpts below:

Is India being increasingly cut out of Afghanistan despite years of sustained engagement and considerable investment in the war-torn country? Is it the way the cookie crumbles?

China is moving in and the Americans are moving out while the British mess around the edges. The big gamer and gainer is Pakistan and its military intelligence establishment.

Washington appears content to let things play out — it’s just waiting to put the shutters down and come home. If it means outsourcing the “peace process” to China, the power with a “plan” for everything, so be it. If it means Pakistan’s ISI determines the state and pace of play, so be it.

...

That’s bad news for India for obvious reasons. Two hostile neighbours are getting together to exclude India as Afghanistan becomes a semi-unfriendly hub for ISI activities. This is happening with active compliance of President Ashraf Ghani, a US favourite.

...

The dialogue was to begin in earnest at the end of 2013 but Devyani Khobragade managed to get arrested in New York leading to a downward spiral in relations. US officials were in New Delhi for talks but no one met them. But why no attempt was made later to revive the dialogue is unclear.

Now we are at a stage where there is obvious discomfort — even anger — in New Delhi at developments in Afghanistan. Washington and London are seen as ceding space to China and Pakistan.

...

India is deeply and understandably chagrined at the unusual agreement between the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which dangerously extends Islamabad’s reach beyond its already unhealthy influence in the region.

The ISI will now train and equip NDS operatives, have access to detained militants in Afghanistan and generally call the shots. The agreement reportedly bars any cooperation with “hostile foreign agencies” — obviously a reference to Indian intelligence agencies.

...

But India has to ask also itself why this space was created. US and British officials routinely say: why didn’t New Delhi “step up to the plate”? There is no good answer. For them it’s either you defeat the Taliban (which didn’t happen largely because of Pakistani deceptions) or you make peace with them.

...

You can be sure the trainees will be indoctrinated in the ISI worldview.

Things are happening along the right direction, good job by agencies from both PK and CN!

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

They are confusing at time. However what is important is the geographical fact that Afghanistan will need peaceful and prosperous relations with Pakistan if they are to survive. All the talks of ISI going to over throw gov and support Taliban again is BS. The examples provided for this are from the times US used to train, feed and fight along side same Talibans they now call terrorists. Times have changed, we have learned some bitter lessons, is seems like Afghans have as well. India being a big country in the region sure play an important role but you cannot rule out Pakistan, the geography cannot be changed now and it is a fact all of us have to live with
Pakistan gov surely wants a peaceful Afghanistan not some lawless country where foreign supposed TTP scums can hide and fight us from there.

I do accept for the fact that its not in Pakistan interest to have a enimity in Afghanistan and its the same for Afghanistan as well considering Pak is a powerful neighbour. Nation building of Afghanistan is a important process, and I am pretty sure civilian leadership do not want Afghanistan to descend into chaos.

But would the military will stop asking its proxies to stop attacking Indian establishments? Even for Chinese investment , Afghanistan needs a stable, peaceful atmosphere.

 

[Bratva]

I do accept for the fact that its not in Pakistan interest to have a enimity in Afghanistan and its the same for Afghanistan as well considering Pak is a powerful neighbour. Nation building of Afghanistan is a important process, and I am pretty sure civilian leadership do not want Afghanistan to descend into chaos.

But would the military will stop asking its proxies to stop attacking Indian establishments? Even for Chinese investment , Afghanistan needs a stable, peaceful atmosphere.

ISI wouldn't been playing proxy wars If NDS and RAW + IA MI nexus were not spreading terrorism inside pakistan since 2005.

 

[Arsalan]

I do accept for the fact that its not in Pakistan interest to have a enimity in Afghanistan and its the same for Afghanistan as well considering Pak is a powerful neighbour. Nation building of Afghanistan is a important process, and I am pretty sure civilian leadership do not want Afghanistan to descend into chaos.

But would the military will stop asking its proxies to stop attacking Indian establishments? Even for Chinese investment , Afghanistan needs a stable, peaceful atmosphere.

They must be, it is in there own long term interest. In other hand, will India want all the investment go to waste? will they be OK with losing the opportunity of threatening Pakistan on the western border as well? Pakistan and much more to loose in this game and therefore they are playing it more desperately. The location/geography is on our side and things are starting to unfold a bit favorably. The final outcome will be clear in a few years time but there must be no doubt in the fact that a peaceful and progressive Afghanistan is in our interest while India are not to be directly effected with peace or war in Afghanistan.

 

[Archie]

Chaos in Afghanistan will have direct impact on Pakistan

India doesn't have to do anything to fight Taliban

In fact Raw has already moved most of its anti Pakistan activities from Afghanistan to within Pakistan

why do you think, recent Pakistani reports claimed that their were 30000 Raw agents in Pakistan , including people within the ruling establishment

while at its height, their were just 4000 Raw agents in Afghanistan

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

ISI wouldn't been playing proxy wars If NDS and RAW + IA MI nexus were not spreading terrorism inside pakistan since 2005.

As a Think Tank it would be great to look for inspiration from ur fellow countrymen like Arsalan on how to respond logically and basically good discussable posts.

 

[Umair Nawaz]

Seema Sirohi penns a letter from DC - She has such a hatred for Pakistan and love for sufi music she might even be an Afghan -- lol.

She is married to a retired US Marine (or other service member) - so her opinion should be listed to.

I disagree with her conclusion - I think Manmohan jee was smart not to get caught up in the Afghan conundrum - alas if only Pakistanis had that as a choice.

Article here, excerpts below:

Is India being increasingly cut out of Afghanistan despite years of sustained engagement and considerable investment in the war-torn country? Is it the way the cookie crumbles?

China is moving in and the Americans are moving out while the British mess around the edges. The big gamer and gainer is Pakistan and its military intelligence establishment.

Washington appears content to let things play out — it’s just waiting to put the shutters down and come home. If it means outsourcing the “peace process” to China, the power with a “plan” for everything, so be it. If it means Pakistan’s ISI determines the state and pace of play, so be it.

...

That’s bad news for India for obvious reasons. Two hostile neighbours are getting together to exclude India as Afghanistan becomes a semi-unfriendly hub for ISI activities. This is happening with active compliance of President Ashraf Ghani, a US favourite.

...

The dialogue was to begin in earnest at the end of 2013 but Devyani Khobragade managed to get arrested in New York leading to a downward spiral in relations. US officials were in New Delhi for talks but no one met them. But why no attempt was made later to revive the dialogue is unclear.

Now we are at a stage where there is obvious discomfort — even anger — in New Delhi at developments in Afghanistan. Washington and London are seen as ceding space to China and Pakistan.

...

India is deeply and understandably chagrined at the unusual agreement between the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which dangerously extends Islamabad’s reach beyond its already unhealthy influence in the region.

The ISI will now train and equip NDS operatives, have access to detained militants in Afghanistan and generally call the shots. The agreement reportedly bars any cooperation with “hostile foreign agencies” — obviously a reference to Indian intelligence agencies.

...

But India has to ask also itself why this space was created. US and British officials routinely say: why didn’t New Delhi “step up to the plate”? There is no good answer. For them it’s either you defeat the Taliban (which didn’t happen largely because of Pakistani deceptions) or you make peace with them.

...

You can be sure the trainees will be indoctrinated in the ISI worldview.

that creature is an indian.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

They must be, it is in there own long term interest. In other hand, will India want all the investment go to waste? will they be OK with losing the opportunity of threatening Pakistan on the western border as well? Pakistan and much more to loose in this game and therefore they are playing it more desperately. The location/geography is on our side and things are starting to unfold a bit favorably. The final outcome will be clear in a few years time but there must be no doubt in the fact that a peaceful and progressive Afghanistan is in our interest while India are not to be directly effected with peace or war in Afghanistan.

However I cannot believe or accept the fact India can threaten Pakistan from its Western Border. The major reason is, we do not have the capability yet. We are not USA.

Moreover Afghans would never ever fight a war with Pakistan, however divided Afghan society might be based on clans. It would infact backfire on Indians, if we ever try to push them beyond the limit.

I would prefer India, to save its investments alone, in the forms roads, buildings, mining plants. Security for such should be fine. If Pakistan can leave Indian investments at peace in Afghanistan, I believe India will reciprocate, entailing peace in Afghanistan. Guess thats how geopolitics works

 

[Arsalan]

However I cannot believe or accept the fact India can threaten Pakistan from its Western Border. The major reason is, we do not have the capability yet. We are not USA.

Moreover Afghans would never ever fight a war with Pakistan, however divided Afghan society might be based on clans. It would infact backfire on Indians, if we ever try to push them beyond the limit.

I would prefer India, to save its investments alone, in the forms roads, buildings, mining plants. Security for such should be fine. If Pakistan can leave Indian investments at peace in Afghanistan, I believe India will reciprocate, entailing peace in Afghanistan. Guess thats how geopolitics works

I wish the geopolitics worked as peacefully as you have described, i really do wish for that.

Regarding Afghans fighting Pakistan yes there will be back fire from some clans or you can say many afghan factions but still you will get a few to support you and fight that war. Then again in an unstable Afghanistan, when we say AFGHANS they do no necessarily means only Afghan nationals as there is a significant amount of other nationality fighters operating there. Pakistan interest lies in a peaceful Afghanistan, there is no logical reason for Pakistan to be against India building schools there but it is not that simple. So ISI should leave them alone and wont waster there resources on things as basic as this, specially considering we do not have a lots of funds as well. But the largest diplomatic contingent is not there to run schools and mines alone and we all know that.
By threatening i do not mean a full fledged assault on our western borders but the proxy wars and insurgency will be a headache enough for us and will surely effect in case of a full blown war even on the eastern border (i hope it never happens as this is the only way both Pakistan and India can win that war, by preventing it to happen)

 

[Srinivas]

Without American cover , india will not be able make any further gains in Afghanistan , once the last foreign troops leave Afghanistan , india too will have to pack up and leave.

Afghanistan belongs to the the Afghan , it's their country and they should build it to give their future generations a better life.

Getting in bed with India or using NATO/US provided money to create trouble in FATA and surrounding areas will only invite Pakistan to stick it back up where the sun don't shine

Add Pakistan and China too to that list ..... "Say again Afghanistan belongs to Afghans not Taliban" !

 

[Arsalan]

Add Pakistan and China too to that list ..... "Say again Afghanistan belongs to Afghans not Taliban" !

i will add it for you, the sentence will then read:

Getting in bed with India or using NATO/US\CHINA\PAKISTAN provided money to create trouble in FATA and surrounding areas will only invite Pakistan to stick it back up where the sun don't shine

now how can one explain this? Why will China Pakistan give training and funds to create unrest in FATA and if not, then where will they do so? In Asam? but HOW?

We can keep arguing as long as wel like but the simple fact, whether one wants to accept it or not is an unstable Pakistan is more of a problem for Pakistan than a problem for India and a stable peaceful Afghanistan with good relations with Pakistan is that much more better for us than for India. Our stakes in that land are much higher then yours.

 

[Srinivas]

i will add it for you, the sentence will then read:

now how can one explain this? Why will China Pakistan give training and funds to create unrest in FATA and if not, then where will they do so? In Asam? but HOW?

We can keep arguing as long as wel like but the simple fact, whether one wants to accept it or not is an unstable Pakistan is more of a problem for Pakistan than a problem for India and a stable peaceful Afghanistan with good relations with Pakistan is that much more better for us than for India. Our stakes in that land are much higher then yours.

That do not mean your proxies can have the say in Afghan Govt.

Taliban are armed people they have nothing to do with democracy that is being supported by Afghan people.

Pakistan is more of a trouble maker, who are these Taliban and Pakistan to talk about Governance in Afghanistan?

That too in a communist China ..... laughable !

 

[Arsalan]

That do not mean your proxies can have the say in Afghan Govt.

Taliban are armed people they have nothing to do with democracy that is being supported by Afghan people.

Pakistan is more of a trouble maker, who are these Taliban and Pakistan to talk about Governance in Afghanistan?

That too in a communist China ..... laughable !

Who is India to do all this? Why will we want our proxy to have a say in anything in Afghanistan as long as they are themselves being not influenced by a foreign power that never will digest anything good for Pakistan.

The same Afghan people took up arms and are called Taliban, the same afghan people want peace talks with them and spearheaded by the same afghan democratic government.

Seriously, 8936 posts and you still feel that if you go in chest thumping and foul mouthing you will win an argument here?

 

[Srinivas]

Who is India to do all this? Why will we want our proxy to have a say in anything in Afghanistan as long as they are themselves being not influenced by a foreign power that never will digest anything good for Pakistan.

The same Afghan people took up arms and are called Taliban, the same afghan people want peace talks with them and spearheaded by the same afghan democratic government.

Seriously, 8936 posts and you still feel that if you go in chest thumping and foul mouthing you will win an argument here?

How can you infer that bold part?

you are talking as if Afghanistan ,a sovereign country which existed for thousands years as a province of Pakistan, and any country which is dealing with Afgans need permission from Pakistan except China since China is a new found master.

Chest thumping often comes from your part of the region and foul mouthing too.... sane words for you sound like the bold part....since you are in a delusion !