China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) | Updates & Discussions

[Muhammad Omar]

Lahore Abdul Hakeem Motorway Part of Karachi Lahore Motorway (Eastern Route)

 

[Muhammad Omar]

Hazara Motorway E-35 Under Construction Simla Hill tunnel near Abbottabad

 

[Muhammad Omar]

Phase 2 Havalian to Thakot 120 km Motorway under Construction

The expressway will then course northwards along the N-35 National Highway towards Abbottabad, Mansehra, and Shinkiari, ending at Thakot

 

[Muhammad Omar]

CPEC AUTO INDUSTRY: NLC will install production HTV plant with a German Comapany MAN

The National Logistic Cell (NLC) has decided to invest in auto sector in collaboration with a German company in order to cater the rising demand of heavy commercial vehicles following the commencement of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Dawn News reported on Friday.

"National Logistic Cell has planned to install production plants [in Pakistan] with German Company to produce prime movers," said Engineering Development Board (EDB) chief Tariq Chuadhry.
The NLC will initially be investing Rs500 million to Rs700 million to install a production plant in Pakistan in a bid to manufacture heavy commercial vehicles in collaboration with German MAN Truck and Bus Company, the official further said.

In the first phase, trucks will be produced to meet the requirements of Pakistan Army while in the second phase — keeping in view the rising demand under CEPC — heavy commercial vehicles will be produced as well, it has been learnt.

Around 700 to 1,000 heavy vehicles will be produced annually and later on the production capacity will be enhanced accordingly, the official said.

MAN Truck and Bus, with headquarters in Munich, is one of the leading international suppliers of commercial vehicles and transport solutions in Europe, with production plants in three European countries as well as in Russia, South Africa, India and Turkey.

#CPEC Western route
Construction activity in full swing on Hakla-D.I.Khan section of CPEC's Western Corridor. 285 km Expressway is scheduled to complete by mid 2018.

 

[razgriz19]

 

[Mrc]

What are the provisions included in the agreement/ MoU to help local manufacturers from the flooding of cheap Chinese products?? Can govt of Pakistan introduce duties against Chinese products through CPEC??

Why r indians so concerned???

 

[SQ8]

@Lil Mathew Not all Chinese products are cheap just as not all Sardar's are stupid , please do not incite a flame by repeating pointless myth and reputation and I do not believe there will be a flood as is being expected. Chinese imports have had a free hand for quite a while and as such their penetration within the Market is usually with local partners.

 

[Lil Mathew]

@Lil Mathew Not all Chinese products are cheap just as not all Sardar's are stupid , please do not incite a flame by repeating pointless myth and reputation and I do not believe there will be a flood as is being expected. Chinese imports have had a free hand for quite a while and as such their penetration within the Market is usually with local partners.

I used the word 'cheap' in the meaning of inexpensive.. That doesn't mean that it is of bad quality.. As China is concerned they can supply ' even pin to heavy machineries' as they have a well established industry which produce each and every products in the world.. There will be no competition as Pak producers simply cannot compete with them in quality as well as price.. So anyway protectionism is needed to help local industries.. That all depends on the intial agreement between the two countries.. Whether there are provisions of free trade is there or not?? How can Pak govt can do those things of imparting duties not hurting China's interests??
Now no electricity for industries.. China will give you loan and loan means high cost electricity.. If your industries not perform well because of Chinese competition, how can you repay your debts??

Why r indians so concerned???

We are concerned in many ways.. First and main one is the increased Chinese presence in Azad Kashmir & Indian ocean.. But if you think we are jelous of CPEC, that is not true.. My intention is a healthy discussion.. Check your self how much you know inside the agreements.. Each & every lines of these agreements/MoUs should be discussed before signing.. Medias, opposition & country's think tanks should see every problems arise in future.. If everyone discuss only the merits and advantages in this stage,it is absolutely a wrong way.. Your Parliament should discuss each and every lines of agreement for days before passing... Big project means big opportunity for corruption for politicians and generals( in Pak case) .. Opposition ( like kejriwal and rahul gandhi) should ask meaningfull as well as meaningless questions to reveal the deals fully..Also don't let the other party(China) exploit the situation(India Pak rivalry).. If any public have a doubt, you should ask now.. Now or never..

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1237534/cpec-project-nascent-industries-afraid-big-chinese-firms/

 

[SQ8]

I used the word 'cheap' in the meaning of inexpensive.. That doesn't mean that it is of bad quality.. As China is concerned they can supply ' even pin to heavy machineries' as they have a well established industry which produce each and every products in the world.. There will be no competition as Pak producers simply cannot compete with them in quality as well as price.. So anyway protectionism is needed to help local industries.. That all depends on the intial agreement between the two countries.. Whether there are provisions of free trade is there or not?? How can Pak govt can do those things of imparting duties not hurting China's interests??
Now no electricity for industries.. China will give you loan and loan means high cost electricity.. If your industries not perform well because of Chinese competition, how can you repay your debts??

Your entire premise sits on the idea that somehow the current market setup will change; wheraes there has been little change in consumer patterns or in the introduction of cheap products. Basically, there are better markets than Pakistan and any Chinese presence is limited to investment and using Pakistani labour for it. Which in turn only helps the economy.

Dont take my confidence as misplaced or utopian; I fully appreciate your concern but with the KKH operational for some 20 years and commercial movement between Pakistan and China at its peak; local industry has still not been hit.
It is possible however, that certain manufacturing may be lost in terms of ownership in Pakistan with Chinese investors acting bullish on local production.

 

[Lil Mathew]

Your entire premise sits on the idea that somehow the current market setup will change; wheraes there has been little change in consumer patterns or in the introduction of cheap products. Basically, there are better markets than Pakistan and any Chinese presence is limited to investment and using Pakistani labour for it. Which in turn only helps the economy.

Dont take my confidence as misplaced or utopian; I fully appreciate your concern but with the KKH operational for some 20 years and commercial movement between Pakistan and China at its peak; local industry has still not been hit.
It is possible however, that certain manufacturing may be lost in terms of ownership in Pakistan with Chinese investors acting bullish on local production.

If China invests in Pak industries and Pakistanis getting more jobs is absolutely a good thing for Pakistan.. But already China is worried with over capacity & workers layoffs.. Cost effective means for them are just export other than setting a factory in Pakistan.. Here comes the importance of detailing in agreements.. Pak govt should negotiate and discuss with Chinese for a good deal for Pakistan.. Agreements should never become a burden..
The next important thing is concerned with the usage of CPEC.. Its strategic importance for China is greater than usual. This is because of the access it allows western China to the Indian Ocean, as an alternative to the Straits of Malacca. Many of its projects are financially unviable (For example the power plants it is building will require tariffs that are unsustainable for most Pakistanis).. Rail or road routes are absolutely not economically viable for China against the existing sea route.. When considering the additional cost imparted for security threat, it is not a economical choice.. Then what?? Absolutely it's only an alternative to Malacca straight.. When a war like situation arises against USA or Japan, this route will serve as a lifeline for China.. But that is a great threat for Pakistan.. Pakistan will drag to an unwanted conflict.. How can GoP will tackle such a situation ?? Here comes the complexity of this project.. If Pak govt lonely invested in this corridor (with a loan from China or world Bank) and let China use it.. They can do a lot.. But now who is the owner of these roads and rail?? Do you people checked the details of this in agreements??

 

[SQ8]

If China invests in Pak industries and Pakistanis getting more jobs is absolutely a good thing for Pakistan.. But already China is worried with over capacity & workers layoffs.. Cost effective means for them are just export other than setting a factory in Pakistan.. Here comes the importance of detailing in agreements.. Pak govt should negotiate and discuss with Chinese for a good deal for Pakistan.. Agreements should never become a burden..
The next important thing is concerned with the usage of CPEC.. Its strategic importance for China is greater than usual. This is because of the access it allows western China to the Indian Ocean, as an alternative to the Straits of Malacca. Many of its projects are financially unviable (For example the power plants it is building will require tariffs that are unsustainable for most Pakistanis).. Rail or road routes are absolutely not economically viable for China against the existing sea route.. When considering the additional cost imparted for security threat, it is not a economical choice.. Then what?? Absolutely it's only an alternative to Malacca straight.. When a war like situation arises against USA or Japan, this route will serve as a lifeline for China.. But that is a great threat for Pakistan.. Pakistan will drag to an unwanted conflict.. How can GoP will tackle such a situation ?? Here comes the complexity of this project.. If Pak govt lonely invested in this corridor (with a loan from China or world Bank) and let China use it.. They can do a lot.. But now who is the owner of these roads and rail?? Do you people checked the details of this in agreements??

I did not sign the agreements. One can only HOPE that such homework was done, but clearly your claims of financially nonviable are not backed up by any links I see here.

 

[Lil Mathew]

I did not sign the agreements. One can only HOPE that such homework was done, but clearly your claims of financially nonviable are not backed up by any links I see here.

There are 51 agreements/ MoUs are signed in April 2015.. That is only preliminary.. Full contents of the same must be available to the public.. If you like educated people not study that, who will do that??
CPEC projects are carried out by Chinese firms selected by Beijing and also funded by China. To date, Pakistan’s public has had no access to the specifics of these arrangements..It is the closed bidding process makes it difficult to assess whether contracts reflect fair market costs, accounting for Pakistan's difficult security environment. Also the government has approved the establishment of revolving funds, equal to 22% of monthly invoicing, “backed by sovereign guarantees to ensure uninterrupted payments to Chinese sponsors of CPEC energy projects”. If the purchaser fails to replenish the account, the ministry of finance will. Since distribution companies will default, because tariffs are low, and even those are not paid, the government will pay, up front, at least 22% of the bills of the Chinese companies. This means GoP took the responsibility to give the returns if power projects fails to deliver adequate results. Why GoP took such a burden?? Actually China must assure you the returns...
$34.4 billion of the $46 billion announced are for power projects.. These will add 10,400 MW of generating capacity to the grid in 2018( 16 early harvesting ).. Now installed capacity of electricity in Pak is 22000 MW , but electricity production is only 17000 MW.. (also 5000MW shortfall) Pakistan can survive without power shortage with present installed capacity..That means installed capacity is not the problem as of now..It's the circular debt is the major problem now in Pakistan.. That is the total loss from transmission losses, theft, recovery, and subsidies is 46 per cent. This leads only 54% percentage of return.. The 46% of production cost is converted to the circular debt.
Yeh, but in future you need more power plants.. But merely adding 10000MW in 2018 will not solve any problem.. Also Thar’s 175 billion tons of coal reserves is the hope of these projects.. But many authors says Pakistan counting their chickens before they hatched. Only 2.7 out of the 175 billion tonnes of Thar coal are categorised as measured (proven) coal reserves. The rest of the reserves (172 billion tonnes) fall under hypothetical (undiscovered), inferred, and indicated category. Then LNG from Iran.. If you can get LNG from Iran ,you can now add 3600MW extra from present installed capacity.. Also present hydro power plans like – Diamer-Bhasha and Bonji in Gilgit-Baltistan in Azad Kashmir, Neelam-Jhelum, Azad Pattan and Mehl in the ‘Azad Jammu Kashmir’ part of Azad Kashmir, and Tarbela IV and V and Dasu in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa – will add another 21,129 MW to the grid. That is more than double the CPEC early-harvest projects.
This means getting return enough to repay the debt is a herculean task... Loads and loads of new investments in the form of industrial parks nd hubs are required for the success of CPEC.. But who will invest?? Western FDI from Europe and USA is highly unlikely.. They most probably never invest in Pakistan in present situation (security & Chinese competition).. China's investments are also doubtful as they have no extra benefits other than exploiting Pak's natural resources.. Only hope is local industries which are now under threat from Chinese products..

 

[GeraltofRivia]

There are 51 agreements/ MoUs are signed in April 2015.. That is only preliminary.. Full contents of the same must be available to the public.. If you like educated people not study that, who will do that??
CPEC projects are carried out by Chinese firms selected by Beijing and also funded by China. To date, Pakistan’s public has had no access to the specifics of these arrangements..It is the closed bidding process makes it difficult to assess whether contracts reflect fair market costs, accounting for Pakistan's difficult security environment. Also the government has approved the establishment of revolving funds, equal to 22% of monthly invoicing, “backed by sovereign guarantees to ensure uninterrupted payments to Chinese sponsors of CPEC energy projects”. If the purchaser fails to replenish the account, the ministry of finance will. Since distribution companies will default, because tariffs are low, and even those are not paid, the government will pay, up front, at least 22% of the bills of the Chinese companies. This means GoP took the responsibility to give the returns if power projects fails to deliver adequate results. Why GoP took such a burden?? Actually China must assure you the returns...
$34.4 billion of the $46 billion announced are for power projects.. These will add 10,400 MW of generating capacity to the grid in 2018( 16 early harvesting ).. Now installed capacity of electricity in Pak is 22000 MW , but electricity production is only 17000 MW.. (also 5000MW shortfall) Pakistan can survive without power shortage with present installed capacity..That means installed capacity is not the problem as of now..It's the circular debt is the major problem now in Pakistan.. That is the total loss from transmission losses, theft, recovery, and subsidies is 46 per cent. This leads only 54% percentage of return.. The 46% of production cost is converted to the circular debt.
Yeh, but in future you need more power plants.. But merely adding 10000MW in 2018 will not solve any problem.. Also Thar’s 175 billion tons of coal reserves is the hope of these projects.. But many authors says Pakistan counting their chickens before they hatched. Only 2.7 out of the 175 billion tonnes of Thar coal are categorised as measured (proven) coal reserves. The rest of the reserves (172 billion tonnes) fall under hypothetical (undiscovered), inferred, and indicated category. Then LNG from Iran.. If you can get LNG from Iran ,you can now add 3600MW extra from present installed capacity.. Also present hydro power plans like – Diamer-Bhasha and Bonji in Gilgit-Baltistan in Azad Kashmir, Neelam-Jhelum, Azad Pattan and Mehl in the ‘Azad Jammu Kashmir’ part of Azad Kashmir, and Tarbela IV and V and Dasu in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa – will add another 21,129 MW to the grid. That is more than double the CPEC early-harvest projects.
This means getting return enough to repay the debt is a herculean task... Loads and loads of new investments in the form of industrial parks nd hubs are required for the success of CPEC.. But who will invest?? Western FDI from Europe and USA is highly unlikely.. They most probably never invest in Pakistan in present situation (security & Chinese competition).. China's investments are also doubtful as they have no extra benefits other than exploiting Pak's natural resources.. Only hope is local industries which are now under threat from Chinese products..

Unlike many comments I have read regarding CPEC that fills with vague discussion, your analysis has been supported by many detailed numbers, which I am certain came from credible sources or your calculation backed by research. I am wondering whether you can kindly discuss the numbers you used a bit further.

1. You have mentioned that "the government has approved the establishment of revolving funds, equal to 22% of monthly invoicing". Could you please explain what this "revolving fund" is (information source) and how you have come up with 22% of month invoicing, which supposedly is the energy charge/tariffs.

2. As you have mentioned Installed and production capacity in MW, I am certain you have good knowledge of power system in general. Naturally energy demand measured in MW is not constant during the day or during the year, instead it reaches peak value at the hottest point of the day or the year due to air conditioning load. Regarding the 17000MW electricity production figure you have mentioned, is that recent peak demand at a particular day or average demand for a certain period? Also how did you come up with the 46%?

3. You have discussed about adding 3600MW using LNG imported from Iran. I am guessing you derived this figure by estimating the likely size of LNG terminal, transmission capacity and importantly the conversion/efficiency rate of the gas plant that will be installed. Are you able to discuss further?

 

[alextyy1231986]

It was not Nat Geo, it was by CCTV

I think some people just think Nat Geo is more famous and editing the clip to make it looks like Nat Geo might help them get clicks

For those who might be interested, @Aether ,@Emmie ,@WebMaster ,@Horus ,@Irfan Baloch
Forgot to post this here,
https://defence.pk/threads/cpec-and-its-benefits-to-gb.447817/#post-8655369
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CPEC and it’s benefits to GB
BY: @WAJsal
Published on Pakistan Defense

The Karakoram mountain range, Astore Valley. — Photo by Najeeb Mahmud


Gilgit-Baltistan, also known as ‘The Jewel of Pakistan’...and rightly so, the region holds some of the most breath-taking views in the world, from the highest peaks in the world and the most number of glaciers in the world, to the most magnificent lakes in the world. Apart from the beauty, the region holds significant strategic importance, it borders Pakistan with China and will act as a gateway for the rest of Pakistan once China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor is completed.
The strategic importance of the region is a historic one, considering : Gilgit-Baltistan was a part of Jammu and Kashmir princely state before partition, and on March 29, 1935, the British government took possession of Gilgit Agency from the state government, through a lease agreement for 60 years; reasons being The British feared of the Soviet expansionist moves, and therefore wanted to have direct control in the region. [1]
The strategic location of the region allows Pakistan to have a direct link with China. Karakoram Highway was built in 1979, it took about 20 years to be fully completed starting in 1959 and open to traffic in 1979. The Karakoram Highway or the KKH will play a key role in China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor, being the starting point of the great vision and the project.
To be built over the next several years, the 3,218 kilometre route will connect Kashgar in China’s western Xinjiang region to the port of Gwadar. Currently, nearly 80 per cent of China’s oil is transported by ship from the Strait of Malacca to Shanghai, a distance of more than 16,000 km, with the journey taking between two to three months. But once Gwadar begins operating, the distance would be reduced to less than 5,000 km. KKH was to be realigned, and the existing network to be grown and perfected. Number of Tunnels, bridges and new roads have already been completed.

More details here: KKH Realignment: 94% work on the project completed so far, remaining to be completed by Sep. 25 this year


New projects are also in construction process:
Gilgit-Baltistan Expressway costing Rs82 billion would be the highest road in the world and bring economic revolution in the entire region, announced Gilgit-Baltistan Chief Minister Hafeezur Rahman.
“An expressway costing Rs50 billion from Gilgit to Skardu will facilitate people of G-B and another from Islamabad to G-B needing capital injection of Rs82 billion will be constructed under the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor),” he said.
“The proposed Shonter-Astore road will reduce the distance between Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and G-B by several hundred kilometres and also cut travel time between the two regions,” he added. [2]

Highlighted in red is the route of National Highway 35, which is to be completely rebuilt and upgraded under the CPEC agreement. Highlighted in blue is the 175 kilometre road between Gilgit and Skardu which is to be upgraded to a 4-lane highway. (Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karakoram_Highway#/media/File:KKHReconstructions.png)


It is also planned to make a rail link between Pakistan and China, which is a part of second phase of CPEC, and it is to be completed in 2018-2022.

Karakoram Highway route map. The Khunjerab Railway is set to travel a similar route to the pre-existing Karakoram Highway.

Land of opportunities

Being a tourism paradise CPEC is expected to boost the tourism industry in Pakistan, especially in Gilgit-Baltistan. The region is considered to be a mountaineer’s paradise, since it is home to five of the ‘eight-thousanders’ (peaks above 8,000 metres), as well as more than 50 mountains over 7,000 metres. It is also home to the world’s second highest peak K2 and the Nanga Parbat. [3]

The mighty Nanga Parbat soars high in the first light of the sun. —Photo by Ghulam Rasool


With improving security situation in the rest of the country and better infrastructure, this industry is expected to grow. Tourism plays a vital part for the locals in the region, most families are solely dependent on tourists. Tourism industry has never reached the potential it can mainly due to the poor infrastructure present and worsening security situation in the country. But in recent times this industry has improved and with more importance given to this sector things are expected to get better. And with CPEC going through the region, it is expected to attract more tourists.

“For a few years now, between 10,000 and 20,000 tourists would visit GB each year but in 2015, over 600,000 people visited GB and this year, it is expected that around one million people will travel to GB,” GB Tourism Secretary Jehanzeb Awan. [4]

Apart from the tourism industry a large chunk of the population relies on agriculture to support their living. Fruits of all sorts and dry fruits are a big part of this industry, this industry too has never really reached it potential. CPEC is bound to improve many basic thing stopping this industry from booming.

Hopes

Apples of Hunza...


With the CPEC passing through Gilgit-Baltistan, Salman hopes the route will open business opportunities for the region's traders.

Diverting fruit to China will be more profitable, for one, will be more profitable. “We can double our sales and profits if we can sell to China where cherries are very popular," Momin said.

Cherries grown in Hunza, Ghizer and other districts are popular exports to China. —Photo by Ghulam Rasool


Currently, he ships his produce to Dubai through air-cargo. "It would be faster and cheaper if we could send it by road to China via Xinjiang as we can get a one-year border pass to travel within that border," Salman explained.

According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Gilgit-Baltistan produces over 100,000 metric tonnes of fresh apricots annually. While there are no official surveys, Zulfiqar Momin, who heads Farm House Pvt Ltd., which exports fresh and dried fruits to the Middle East, estimates that Gilgit-Baltistan produces up to 4,000 tonnes of cherries and up to 20,000 tonnes of apples.

“All fruits grown in Gilgit-Baltistan are organic with no pesticides used,” Momin said. [3]

Hunzakut women drying apricots in the Garelt village, Hunza river valley, with Mt Rakaposhi in the background.



That is not enough...According to the ADB, Gilgit-Baltistan has the potential to produce nearly 50,000MW of energy. Just Bunji Dam, a run-of-the-river project that the ADB has invested in, has the capacity to generate up to 7,100MW electricity when completed. [4]

“By building hydropower projects, Pakistan can sell clean energy to China and even use it for itself, the development consultant said. "If Bhutan can sell to India, why can’t we sell to China?” Hunzai pointed out that the Chinese already taking the country’s national grid to its border province.

However, the government is almost ready to revive the Diamer-Bhasha dam, a gravity dam on the Indus river in Gilgit-Baltistan, in the second phase of CPEC. Once completed, it is estimated to generate 4,500MW of electricity, besides serving as a huge water reservoir for the country.

The region has the potential to solve the load-shedding problems in the country which has been hurting the industrial sector along with general population for years.

Things to improve and to look out for...

Putting aside all the conspiracy theories and how the CPEC is bound to destroy local industry in Pakistan, or that Chinese will colonize regions like CPEC. Merily giving a notice to these theories is a sheer waste of one's time. While in actuality CPEC is bound to improve the lives of locals, especially in regions in GB. Region far less developed and developed, same change is expected in regions like Balochistan, KPK and FATA.

Once basic infrastructure facilities improve, it is bound to improve socio-economic situation of the people. As the tourists numbers increase locals are bound to profit from it, and it is can also play a key role in Pakistan's economy in coming years. As raw products reach better market swiftly, due to improved transport. This sector is also expected to do better than it has ever done before.

A factor to look out for is that, CPEC is expected to generate thousands of jobs for the locals. Just about 50,000 jobs will be generated in Gwadar, which a decade ago was a just small-fishing village. [6]

CPEC is expected to be a ‘game-changer’ for Pakistan, and especially for regions like Baluchistan, GB, KPK and FATA...One thing we need to realize is that better infrastructure alone cannot solve major problems of Pakistan, work needs to be done to improve education structure in the country and improve basic facilities for people. Improvement on Health facilities, along with educational infrastructure is a need for regions like GB.

One of the important things to adress is that local population of GB demands constitutional and political rights, and have long been raising their voices for these right. Continuous ignorance of these demands may lead to a sense of deprivation and may create more problems in future…

Mr Raees said GB was central to the CPEC project, but unfortunately the people had totally been neglected. “The federal government has also ignored the demand of the GB people that their representatives should be given representation in the parliament of Pakistan.” [7]

Most of the local reservations have long been resolved but one demands remains to be resolved, but some development has happened on this front too. Government is expected to give the region it’s due constitutional status and political representation in National Assembly and Senate. [8]

The next step

Students attend the morning assembly at Hasegawa Memorial Public School and College in Karimabad, Pakistan.


Gilgit-Baltistan has the potential to be Pakistan’s ‘real Shangri-la’. It has a high literacy rate, and in some areas literacy rate is in the 90’s. It is most definitely not facing the rest of the country has unfortunately had to face, the security situation have never really deteriorated like the rest of the country. And even the usual social problems a society faces are in very low number. There are few areas in the world like Hunza...Once a hardscrabble Himalayan town where residents barely had enough to eat, now a beacon of inspiration for the rest of the world.

Visitors to the stunningly beautiful valley, towered over by five snowcapped mountains, sometimes feel as if they are standing at the edge of the Earth — or, maybe, at the centre of it.

Either way, they often don’t feel as if they are in Pakistan, a country that struggles with poverty, pollution, Islamist militancy and a lacklustre education system, especially for women. [9]

Many parents in the valley say that if they had to choose, they would send their daughters to school over their sons. Nearly all families own at least a small plot of land. Residents say they cannot remember the last murder in the valley. And unlike in other parts of Pakistan, streams are not polluted with plastic bags, human waste and decaying appliances.

A World Bank study published last year concluded that female literacy in parts of the Hunza Valley had reached 90 per cent. “When I was in school, few could even speak English,” said Javed Ali, 41, manager of Karimabad’s Hill Top Hotel. “Now, everyone speaks it fluently.” From settlements at an elevation as high as 9,000ft, children walk up to three miles into the valley to get to school each morning.

After middle school, some female students enroll in the Aga Khan Higher Secondary School for Girls, which teaches only maths and science. Nearly all graduates go on to college, according to Zahra Alidad, the principal and a graduate of the school. [9]

“When you have communities improving their own lives and obtaining education, it prevents easy manipulation of communities and allows them to be resilient against external forces,” Mr Walji said.

If there can be communities which solely rely on local charity groups, and education to improve their lives. One can only imagine what proper attention given to such a rich place can lead to. This is a thought we must all build on and take inspiration from, and look to imply this simple method in the rest of the country.


[1] Gilgit-Baltistans Liberation

[2] G-B Expressway to be the highest in world

[3] China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: A boon for the economy, a bane for locals

[4]‘A million tourists expected in GB this year’

[5] Potential of renewable energies in Pakistan

[6] 50,000 JOBS TO BE GENERATED IN GWADAR

[7]Is there Room for Improvement in CPEC Implementation in GB?

[8] Pakistan mulls elevating status of Gilgit-Baltistan on Chinese insistence

[9] Hunza Valley: Pakistan's 'real Shangri-La' is a world free from militant Islamists, poverty, pollution and a lacklustre education system

You are absolutely correct. Logistics is key for the business potential of regions with high quality agricultural produce. If the produces cannot be shipped out in time, they rot become waste. I think we will soon find fresh Pakistani apples in Chinese supermarkets.

 

[Lil Mathew]

Unlike many comments I have read regarding CPEC that fills with vague discussion, your analysis has been supported by many detailed numbers, which I am certain came from credible sources or your calculation backed by research. I am wondering whether you can kindly discuss the numbers you used a bit further.

1. You have mentioned that "the government has approved the establishment of revolving funds, equal to 22% of monthly invoicing". Could you please explain what this "revolving fund" is (information source) and how you have come up with 22% of month invoicing, which supposedly is the energy charge/tariffs.

2. As you have mentioned Installed and production capacity in MW, I am certain you have good knowledge of power system in general. Naturally energy demand measured in MW is not constant during the day or during the year, instead it reaches peak value at the hottest point of the day or the year due to air conditioning load. Regarding the 17000MW electricity production figure you have mentioned, is that recent peak demand at a particular day or average demand for a certain period? Also how did you come up with the 46%?

3. You have discussed about adding 3600MW using LNG imported from Iran. I am guessing you derived this figure by estimating the likely size of LNG terminal, transmission capacity and importantly the conversion/efficiency rate of the gas plant that will be installed. Are you able to discuss further?

I'm not an expert in these areas, but I will explain as per my knowledge.. Your three questions are inter related.. So I will explain in that manner.. It actually starts with 2002 Power Generation Policy.. By this policy independent power producers or IPPs produce almost 6000MW electricity in Pakistan.. The total installed capacity of 22000MW also included this 6000MW.. But here comes the circular debt problem..The cost per unit kilowatt-hour (kWh) of generated electricity in Pakistan is around 14 Rupees. Consumers, on average, pay 11.50 Rupees per kWh. The systematic subsidy, which is almost 15 per cent of the cost, adds up to billions in losses (equal to 12% of generation cost). Across the country, 22 per cent of the generated electricity is lost due to theft and some transmission losses. Further 12% loss is there because distribution companies only collect approximately 85 per cent of the amounts billed to consumers.
That is total lost 12+22+12= 46%..( your second question)
That is if 100 rs is production cost, only 54 rs is recovered.. The 44 rs is loss, which is added and added every year.. That is called circular debt.. This is the primary cause of Pakistan energy shortage. Because of this circular debt and limitations in budget, finance ministry always fail to give payments for IPPs.. That means IPPs have no money for fuel blocks... So 90% or 100% of that 6000MW of already installed power generation capacity is not utilising now.. That means as of now finance ministry is reluctant to fully utilise installed power generation capacity due to its implications on budget and that is the cause of the load shedding..
So total production is only 16000-17000 MW..
shortfall = demand - supply =5000 to 8000 MW (8000 at when the demand is at peak as you mentioned)
Now the case of CPEC.. China knows the circular debt problem in Pakistan.. So they not want to risk their investments...So they negotiate d with GoP for a setup for uninterrupted payments to Chinese sponsors of CPEC energy projects”. So the government has approved the establishment of revolving funds, equal to 22% of monthly invoicing backed by sovereign guarantees to ensure If the purchaser fails to replenish the account, the ministry of finance will. That is if Pak states distribution companies will default, because tariffs are low, and even those are not paid, the government will pay, up front, at least 22% of the bills of the Chinese companies." Thus China assure the return no matter what will be the future of these projects..