Tell us any country that has turned a Chinese investment into a profit
China-Pakistan: Beijing to "Further Deepen and Expand" Ties, Support Pak "Financial Stability"
- Thread starter RiazHaq
- Start date
#America’s Bad Bet on #Modi.
#Delhi Won’t Side With #Washington Against #Beijing. #India’s significant weaknesses versus #China, & its inescapable proximity to it, guarantee that Delhi will never involve itself in any #US confrontation with Beijing. #BJP https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/americas-bad-bet-india-modi
by Ashley Tellis
For the past two decades, Washington has made an enormous bet in the Indo-Pacific—that treating India as a key partner will help the United States in its geopolitical rivalry with China. From George W. Bush onward, successive U.S. presidents have bolstered India’s capabilities on the assumption that doing so automatically strengthens the forces that favor freedom in Asia.
The administration of President Joe Biden has enthusiastically embraced this playbook. In fact, it has taken it one step further: the administration has launched an ambitious new initiative to expand India’s access to cutting-edge technologies, further deepened defense cooperation, and made the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), which includes Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, a pillar of its regional strategy. It has also overlooked India’s democratic erosion and its unhelpful foreign policy choices, such as its refusal to condemn Moscow’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine. It has done all of this on the presumption that New Delhi will respond favorably when Washington calls in a favor during a regional crisis involving China.
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India’s priority has been to receive American assistance in building up its own national capabilities so it can deal with threats independently. The two sides have come a long way on this by, for example, bolstering India’s intelligence capabilities about Chinese military activities along the Himalayan border and in the Indian Ocean region. The existing arrangements for intelligence sharing are formally structured for reciprocity, and New Delhi does share whatever it believes to be useful. But because U.S. collection capabilities are so superior, the flow of usable information often ends up being one way.
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The fundamental problem is that the United States and India have divergent ambitions for their security partnership. As it has done with allies across the globe, Washington has sought to strengthen India’s standing within the liberal international order and, when necessary, solicit its contributions toward coalition defense. Yet New Delhi sees things differently. It does not harbor any innate allegiance toward preserving the liberal international order and retains an enduring aversion toward participating in mutual defense. It seeks to acquire advanced technologies from the United States to bolster its own economic and military capabilities and thus facilitate its rise as a great power capable of balancing China independently, but it does not presume that American assistance imposes any further obligations on itself.
As the Biden administration proceeds to expand its investment in India, it should base its policies on a realistic assessment of Indian strategy and not on any delusions of New Delhi becoming a comrade-in-arms during some future crisis with Beijing.
#Delhi Won’t Side With #Washington Against #Beijing. #India’s significant weaknesses versus #China, & its inescapable proximity to it, guarantee that Delhi will never involve itself in any #US confrontation with Beijing. #BJP https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/americas-bad-bet-india-modi
by Ashley Tellis
For the past two decades, Washington has made an enormous bet in the Indo-Pacific—that treating India as a key partner will help the United States in its geopolitical rivalry with China. From George W. Bush onward, successive U.S. presidents have bolstered India’s capabilities on the assumption that doing so automatically strengthens the forces that favor freedom in Asia.
The administration of President Joe Biden has enthusiastically embraced this playbook. In fact, it has taken it one step further: the administration has launched an ambitious new initiative to expand India’s access to cutting-edge technologies, further deepened defense cooperation, and made the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), which includes Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, a pillar of its regional strategy. It has also overlooked India’s democratic erosion and its unhelpful foreign policy choices, such as its refusal to condemn Moscow’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine. It has done all of this on the presumption that New Delhi will respond favorably when Washington calls in a favor during a regional crisis involving China.
------
India’s priority has been to receive American assistance in building up its own national capabilities so it can deal with threats independently. The two sides have come a long way on this by, for example, bolstering India’s intelligence capabilities about Chinese military activities along the Himalayan border and in the Indian Ocean region. The existing arrangements for intelligence sharing are formally structured for reciprocity, and New Delhi does share whatever it believes to be useful. But because U.S. collection capabilities are so superior, the flow of usable information often ends up being one way.
--------
The fundamental problem is that the United States and India have divergent ambitions for their security partnership. As it has done with allies across the globe, Washington has sought to strengthen India’s standing within the liberal international order and, when necessary, solicit its contributions toward coalition defense. Yet New Delhi sees things differently. It does not harbor any innate allegiance toward preserving the liberal international order and retains an enduring aversion toward participating in mutual defense. It seeks to acquire advanced technologies from the United States to bolster its own economic and military capabilities and thus facilitate its rise as a great power capable of balancing China independently, but it does not presume that American assistance imposes any further obligations on itself.
As the Biden administration proceeds to expand its investment in India, it should base its policies on a realistic assessment of Indian strategy and not on any delusions of New Delhi becoming a comrade-in-arms during some future crisis with Beijing.
Are you that ignorant or just pretend to be dumb to think the BRI and all Chinese investments are nothing but just debt traps as feed to you by the Indian and Western media that have nothing but ill wishes for anything Chinese.
Spotlight: BRI participating countries reap benefits after 6 years' joint construction
Source: Xinhua| 2019-09-14 11:05:43|Editor: huaxiaBEIJING, Sept. 14 (Xinhua) -- Since China launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, six years' joint construction with participating countries has not only brought remarkable progress to regions along the routes, but also helped speed up global cooperation.
"We shared the view that cooperation under the BRI has opened a gateway to opportunities for common prosperity,"
Chinese President Xi Jinping said at the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in April. As his words still echo, the joint Belt and Road construction is benefiting a bigger population and has been welcomed by more countries.
CONNECTIONS AND CONSENSUS
Centuries ago, lucrative silk trade was carried out by caravans across sun-scorched deserts between the two ends of the Eurasian continent. Another merchant route was established on sea, linking China, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and finally Europe and Africa.
Traders and explorers traveled back and forth along the land and sea routes, facilitating commerce and contact between East and West.
History has left more than just the paths. Inspired by the legacy of these historical commercial routes, in 2013, China proposed the BRI, an initiative which comprises the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.
"Before, just imagine, driving a camel train from China to Europe, it would take months and months and months. Now, if you build a nice high-speed rail, it will take only one day," Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Sept. 2 during a visit to Cambodia.
As a result of the China-proposed BRI, Mahathir said, "communication will improve, and therefore, trade will also follow, so these routes, if you keep them open, they will benefit all the countries along the way. Certainly, East and West will become closer together."
Guided by the Silk Road spirit, the initiative seeks to pool the efforts of the world to blaze a new trail for shared development and common prosperity through cooperation in five major areas -- policy coordination, connectivity of infrastructure and facilities, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and closer people-to-people ties.
Policy coordination is key to smooth cooperation. So far, China has signed policy agreements with other BRI participants on rules and standards, taxation, intellectual property protection and disputes settlement.
Notable headway has been made in infrastructure development. The flourishing BRI cooperation has expedited trade and investment flows, allowed for easier financial access, and created more extensive people-to-people exchanges across Asia, Europe, Africa and beyond.
POPULARITY AND PROFITS
The grand vision for common development through greater connectivity among countries and regions has won applause and support from across the world.
So far, 126 countries and 29 international organizations have signed cooperation agreements with China on jointly building the Belt and Road. Two BRI forums for international cooperation have successfully been held in Beijing with broad consensuses and fruitful outcomes. Numerous programs under the framework are underway.
Trade in goods between China and countries and regions along the Belt and Road registered a volume of more than 6 trillion U.S. dollars from 2013 to 2018, during which more than 244,000 jobs were created for the locals. China's direct foreign investment under the framework has exceeded 90 billion dollars.
According to Bernadette Deka-Zulu, executive director of the Policy Monitoring and Research Center in Zambia, China has already shown commitment and earnest in the BRI process and it was up to individual partner countries to tap into the initiative and come up with programs that will yield their desired benefits.
In the past six years, China has signed 173 cooperation documents with its BRI partners, which include currency swap agreements with 20 countries along the Belt and Road and RMB clearing arrangements with seven countries.
The China-Europe freight trains, connecting China with 50 cities in 15 European countries, had completed more than 14,000 trips by the end of March 2019.
Moreover, the BRI is actively seeking alignment with other national or regional development plans, including African Union's Agenda 2063, Russia's Eurasian Economic Union, Italy's InvestItalia program, Saudi Arabia's Saudi Vision 2030, Kyrgyzstan's 2040 National Sustainable Development Strategy, and Mongolia's Development Road program, among others.
At home, the BRI also seeks to facilitate the development plans of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze Economic Belt and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, securing tangible benefits for the Chinese people.
The BRI, with the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, helps bring mutually beneficial cooperation to a much greater level.
CONSTRUCTION AND COOPERATION
Kin Phea, director-general of the International Relations Institute of Cambodia, an arm of the Royal Academy of Cambodia, said in August that the BRI has immensely contributed to enhancing economic growth and development in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as well as in the world at large.
Over the past six years, the developing countries in particular have witnessed remarkable upgrades to their infrastructure. Smooth progress is underway in China-Laos Railway and China-Thailand Railway projects. The Nairobi-Mombasa railway funded and built by China has carried more than 2.5 million passengers and nearly 3.9 million tons of cargo since its launch in May 2017.
In Ethiopia, a new China-assisted terminal at its capital airport was inaugurated earlier in January to accommodate 22 million passengers annually -- tripling the airport's previous capacity and marking a major step taken by Ethiopia towards becoming a key aviation hub of the African continent.
Co-managed by China's COSCO SHIPPING Group, Greece's Piraeus port has seen its container handling capacity increase fivefold since 2010 to 4.9 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) in 2018. It now ranks 36th among the top 100 ports worldwide on the Lloyd's List, a major industry parameter, up from the 93rd when the Chinese group first joined.
Such progress has not yet covered energy and telecommunications, two areas which have been remarkably boosted by the BRI, delivering business opportunities not just for Chinese companies, but enterprises worldwide.
In building a wind corridor in Pakistan's Sindh province, for example, U.S. multinational conglomerate General Electric is contracted to work with PowerChina to provide wind turbines as well as provide 10-year operation and maintenance services.
China's trade volume with Belt and Road countries 2014-2022
Published by C. Textor, Feb 28, 2023In 2022, the trade value between China and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries grew up to 13.8 trillion yuan, in 2014, the trade value was 5 trillion yuan only. The trade volume increased by 19.4 percent compared to the previous year.
China: trade volume with BRI countries 2022 | Statista
In 2022, the trade value between China and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries grew up to 13.8 trillion yuan.
www.statista.com
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Hey thanks for adding 0 value to this thread. I can only go by my personal experiences spanning over 13 years from what I’ve seen. The other stuff you wrote, it’s a lot of personal anger behind it. Sorry you feel that way.
#India's ties with #Russia remain steady. But #Moscow's tighter embrace of #China makes it wary. It appears “this (#Delhi-Moscow) relationship is going down from being a very high-value strategic partnership to a transactional one" #Modi #US #Ukraine https://cnb.cx/3NxQLX7
India’s relationship with Russia remains steadfast as both sides seek to deepen their economic engagements.
But Moscow has also grown close to Beijing since invading Ukraine, and that raises critical national security concerns for New Delhi, say observers.
India’s leaders are “carefully watching” as Russia becomes more isolated and moves closer to “China’s corner,” said Harsh V. Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank.
It appears “this relationship is going down from being a very high-value strategic partnership to a transactional one,” said Sreeram Chaulia, dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs, adding Moscow’s “tighter embrace of China” doesn’t bode well for India’s national security needs.
India’s relationship with Russia remains steadfast as both sides seek to deepen their economic ties. But Moscow has also grown close to Beijing since invading Ukraine, and that raises critical national security concerns for New Delhi.
Indian external affairs minister S. Jaishankar recently said the country was ready to restart free trade negotiations with Russia.
“Our partnership today is a subject of attention and comment, not because it has changed, but because it has not,” he said, describing the relationship as “among the steadiest” in the world.
Russia also wants to “intensify” free trade discussions with India, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said during a visit to Delhi. Manturov is also Moscow’s trade minister.
Despite the display of economic cooperation, India’s leaders are “carefully watching” as Russia becomes more isolated and moves closer to “China’s corner,” said Harsh V. Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank.
Russia’s “weak and vulnerable position” and growing reliance on China for economic and strategic reasons, will definitely be worrying for India, he told CNBC.
It’s becoming “more difficult with every passing day because of the closeness that we are witnessing between Beijing and Moscow,” Pant noted. “The pressure on India is increasing, it certainly would not like to see that happen.”
New Delhi will try as much as possible to avoid a potential “Russia-China alliance or axis,” Pant added. “As that will have far reaching consequences and will fundamentally alter India’s foreign policy and strategic calculation.”
There are national interest reasons “why India continues to buy cheap Russian oil and trade with them, this FTA is part of that,” said Sreeram Chaulia, dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs in New Delhi.
But it appears “this relationship is going down from being a very high-value strategic partnership to a transactional one,” he noted, adding Moscow’s “tighter embrace of China” doesn’t bode well for India’s national security needs.
India, which holds the current G-20 presidency, still hasn’t condemned Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
India’s relationship with Russia remains steadfast as both sides seek to deepen their economic engagements.
But Moscow has also grown close to Beijing since invading Ukraine, and that raises critical national security concerns for New Delhi, say observers.
India’s leaders are “carefully watching” as Russia becomes more isolated and moves closer to “China’s corner,” said Harsh V. Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank.
It appears “this relationship is going down from being a very high-value strategic partnership to a transactional one,” said Sreeram Chaulia, dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs, adding Moscow’s “tighter embrace of China” doesn’t bode well for India’s national security needs.
India’s relationship with Russia remains steadfast as both sides seek to deepen their economic ties. But Moscow has also grown close to Beijing since invading Ukraine, and that raises critical national security concerns for New Delhi.
Indian external affairs minister S. Jaishankar recently said the country was ready to restart free trade negotiations with Russia.
“Our partnership today is a subject of attention and comment, not because it has changed, but because it has not,” he said, describing the relationship as “among the steadiest” in the world.
Russia also wants to “intensify” free trade discussions with India, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said during a visit to Delhi. Manturov is also Moscow’s trade minister.
Despite the display of economic cooperation, India’s leaders are “carefully watching” as Russia becomes more isolated and moves closer to “China’s corner,” said Harsh V. Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank.
Russia’s “weak and vulnerable position” and growing reliance on China for economic and strategic reasons, will definitely be worrying for India, he told CNBC.
It’s becoming “more difficult with every passing day because of the closeness that we are witnessing between Beijing and Moscow,” Pant noted. “The pressure on India is increasing, it certainly would not like to see that happen.”
New Delhi will try as much as possible to avoid a potential “Russia-China alliance or axis,” Pant added. “As that will have far reaching consequences and will fundamentally alter India’s foreign policy and strategic calculation.”
There are national interest reasons “why India continues to buy cheap Russian oil and trade with them, this FTA is part of that,” said Sreeram Chaulia, dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs in New Delhi.
But it appears “this relationship is going down from being a very high-value strategic partnership to a transactional one,” he noted, adding Moscow’s “tighter embrace of China” doesn’t bode well for India’s national security needs.
India, which holds the current G-20 presidency, still hasn’t condemned Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
SoulSpokesman
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Not easy to play such games.
India doesn't design/manufacture sophisticated civilian equipment or major weapons systems domestically.
"Benefit" comes with dependence. Buying weapons from Russia means dependence on parts from Russia for maintenance. And increasingly, sophisticated components for Russian weapons will come from China after strict western sanctions.
Russian Arms Sales to India Stall on Fears Over US Sanctions
- India payments for Russia military equipment stuck for a year
- Impasse threatens to hurt India’s readiness on China border
Russian Arms Sales to India Stall Due to Fears Over US Sanctions
Russian deliveries of military supplies to India have ground to a halt as the countries struggle to find a payment mechanism that doesn’t violate US sanctions, according to Indian officials with knowledge of the matter.
www.bloomberg.com
Changing weapon suppliers from Russia to those from the West is a long term process which will also increase India's dependence on the West.
#China's Role Growing in #SouthAsia Region as Foreign Minister Qin Gang heads to #Pakistan with #Afghanistan talks high on agenda. China also hopes to use the visit to further strengthen ties with Pakistan, one of its most important strategic partners. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...-heads-pakistan-afghanistan-talks-high-agenda
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang will visit Pakistan on Friday with efforts to resolve the crisis in Afghanistan high on the agenda.
During his two-day stopover, Qin will meet Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and will also join in three-way talks with the Taliban’s interim foreign minister, Amir Khan Mutaqi.
Mutaqi, who is the subject of a travel ban under United Nations Security Council sanctions, was granted an exemption to travel to Pakistan for the meeting.
“China hopes that this visit will follow through on the important common understandings between the leaders of the two countries,” the Chinese foreign ministry said on Thursday, referring to a phone call between Sharif and Premier Li Qiang last week, as well as the Pakistani leader’s meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing in November.
During the November visit, Xi pledged further collaboration in the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – a US$60 billion transport infrastructure project – and support for efforts to stabilise the Pakistani economy.
Qin’s trip also aims to “further deepen strategic communication and practical cooperation, promote the building of an ever closer China-Pakistan community with a shared future in the new era, and contribute positive energy to the region and the wider world”, according to the Chinese statement.
The statement also used Beijing’s preferred formulations to describe the relationship between the two countries, alluding to their “ironclad friendship” and “all-weather strategic partnership”.
Qin will travel to Pakistan after attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) foreign ministers’ meeting in Panaji, the capital of the Indian state of Goa. His tour also included two days in Myanmar where he became the most senior Chinese official to meet junta leader Min Aung Hlaing since the 2021 coup that brought him to power.
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang will visit Pakistan on Friday with efforts to resolve the crisis in Afghanistan high on the agenda.
During his two-day stopover, Qin will meet Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and will also join in three-way talks with the Taliban’s interim foreign minister, Amir Khan Mutaqi.
Mutaqi, who is the subject of a travel ban under United Nations Security Council sanctions, was granted an exemption to travel to Pakistan for the meeting.
“China hopes that this visit will follow through on the important common understandings between the leaders of the two countries,” the Chinese foreign ministry said on Thursday, referring to a phone call between Sharif and Premier Li Qiang last week, as well as the Pakistani leader’s meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing in November.
During the November visit, Xi pledged further collaboration in the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – a US$60 billion transport infrastructure project – and support for efforts to stabilise the Pakistani economy.
Qin’s trip also aims to “further deepen strategic communication and practical cooperation, promote the building of an ever closer China-Pakistan community with a shared future in the new era, and contribute positive energy to the region and the wider world”, according to the Chinese statement.
The statement also used Beijing’s preferred formulations to describe the relationship between the two countries, alluding to their “ironclad friendship” and “all-weather strategic partnership”.
Qin will travel to Pakistan after attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) foreign ministers’ meeting in Panaji, the capital of the Indian state of Goa. His tour also included two days in Myanmar where he became the most senior Chinese official to meet junta leader Min Aung Hlaing since the 2021 coup that brought him to power.
SoulSpokesman
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Between 2008 and 2021, China spent $240 billion bailing out 22 countries that are “almost exclusively” debtors in Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road infrastructure project, including Argentina, Pakistan, Kenya and Turkey, according to the study published Tuesday by researchers from the World Bank, Harvard Kennedy School, Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the US-based research lab AidData.
SoulSpokesman
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@RiazHaq
Brofessor sb,
Between 2008 and 2021, China spent $240 billion bailing out 22 countries that are “almost exclusively” debtors
It is a pity that inspite of being a successful manager, an entrepreneur and now an economics professor you do not understand the difference between being a debt investor and someone who does a bail out. All that money was put into gold plated projects in BRI. had there been no debt in BRI or had those investments been in the form of equity this bailout wouldnt be required.
Regards
Brofessor sb,
Between 2008 and 2021, China spent $240 billion bailing out 22 countries that are “almost exclusively” debtors
It is a pity that inspite of being a successful manager, an entrepreneur and now an economics professor you do not understand the difference between being a debt investor and someone who does a bail out. All that money was put into gold plated projects in BRI. had there been no debt in BRI or had those investments been in the form of equity this bailout wouldnt be required.
Regards
It seems you don't understand how infrastructure is financed in most developing countries, including your native India. Most of India's and Pakistan's debt is multilateral, not bilateral.
India is the world's biggest debtor to the World Bank and ADB.
The World Bank’s top 10 biggest debtors
No country owes the bank more than India, Indonesia and Pakistan
www.fdiintelligence.com
India biggest recipient of funds from ADB last year
The multilateral funding institution committed $3 billion in sovereign loans to India in 2018, the highest level of assistance since sovereign operations began in the country in 1986.
Almost all of the infrastructure projects in developing countries are financed by loans from the World Bank and regional development banks like ADB.
China is doing the same. They're an additional source of loans for these projects.
China has set up AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) that lends for infrastructure projects.
Contrary to the western propaganda Pakistan's current balance of payments crisis has little to do with Chinese debt. Pakistan's problems predate any loans from China.
The solution to Pakistan's recurring balance of payments crises is to grow exports substantially to pay for imports.
SoulSpokesman
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@RiazHaq
Brofessor sb,
1. Chinese loans are at much higher rate than multilateral lending and are at shorter tenures.
2. WB/ADB loans are funding against projects which are tendered through international competitive bidding. We know how Chinese projects are tendered!
3. There is heavy gold plating and little due diligence on project viability which follows from #2
Regards
Brofessor sb,
1. Chinese loans are at much higher rate than multilateral lending and are at shorter tenures.
2. WB/ADB loans are funding against projects which are tendered through international competitive bidding. We know how Chinese projects are tendered!
3. There is heavy gold plating and little due diligence on project viability which follows from #2
Regards
Read the article
India takes the top spot. Its $39.7bn debt towards the WB recorded at the end of 2021 is double that of the next biggest debtor, Indonesia, with $19.6bn. Pakistan and Bangladesh follow with $18.3bn and $17.8bn, respectively, according to WB figures.
India is a case in point. Although it is the WB’s biggest debtor, its existing stock of WB debt jumped from $5.6bn to $37.1bn between 1980 and 2010. It then almost stopped growing, reaching $39.7bn at the end of 2021 as the country accelerated its development journey and increased its access to commercial capital markets.
India's debt is double of Pakistan's. But India's GDP is 9 times that of Pakistan.
India has not borrowed much after 2010
You are repeating western propaganda against China.
Here are the facts:
CPEC Financing: Is Pakistan Being Ripped Off By China?
Is China ripping off its all-weather friend Pakistan by charging high interest rates on loans and exorbitant guaranteed returns on investmen...
Is China ripping off its all-weather friend Pakistan by charging high interest rates on loans and exorbitant guaranteed returns on investments in China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects? That's a question that is being asked on a frequent basis by Pakistan's friends and foes alike. While friends of China-Pakistan ties are concerned about an undue burden on Pakistanis, the foes see CPEC as an opportunity to create a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt about it and its benefits for Pakistan's economy and society. Who's right? Who's wrong? Why? Let's dive into it.
 |
| CPEC Projects in Pakistan |
Claims by CPEC Detractors:
Many Western and Indian opponents claim that the cost of CPEC financing will be so high that Pakistan will not be able to bear it. They assert that China is attempting to catch Pakistan in a debt trap from which the country will not be able to escape, eventually turning it into a Chinese colony. The financing costs for Chinese loans and investments they claim are in high teens.
Misguided Pakistani Analysts' View:
Many well-meaning Pakistanis, including serious economists, seem to echo detractors' claims without any serious examination or comparison with prevailing bench-marks. They do not mention how similar projects in other parts of the world are financed and what sort of interest rates and return-on-equity are guaranteed.
CPEC Finance Rates vs Benchmarks:
About two-thirds of Chinese CPEC funding is for power projects while one-third is for infrastructure projects like roads, rail lines and ports.
The Chinese soft loans for CPEC infrastructure projects carry an interest rate of just 1.6%, far lower than similar loans offered by the World Bank at rates of 3.8% or higher.
Chinese companies investing in Pakistan power sector are getting loans from Chinese banks at commercial interest rates. These loans will be repaid by the Chinese companies from their income from these investments, not by Pakistani taxpayers.
The rate of return guaranteed by Pakistan power regulators to the Chinese power companies is about 17%. Is it too high, as some claim? Let's compare it to the US market considered among the safest investments in the world.
Rate of Return in United States:
The average return on equity for almost 8,000 US firms is 14.49%. The power utility companies – with an average of 10.13% – are on the lower end of the spectrum because they are viewed as less risky investments.
In the United States, rate of return varies significantly from state to state, as each state regulator has exclusive authority to regulate utility operations as they choose.
In Advance Energy Economy (AEE) Power Portal database, which tracks ROE for over 100 investor-owned utilities across the country, the highest allowed ROE belongs to Alabama Power Co., at 13.75% while the lowest belongs to United Illuminating Co. (CT) at 9.15%.
Within the US states, Alabama being seen as relatively less safe for investment, offers 13.75% return. So why is it such a surprise to see Pakistani regulator offer Chinese investors a higher rate of return of 17%?
Growing Infrastructure Gap:
Development of physical infrastructure, including electricity and gas infrastructure, is essential for economic and social development of a country such as Pakistan. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor financing needs to be seen in the context of the large and growing infrastructure gap in Asia that threatens social and economic progress.
Rich countries generally raise funds for infrastructure projects by selling bonds while most developing countries rely on loans from international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to finance infrastructure projects.
The infrastructure financing needs of the developing countries far exceed the capacity of the World Bank and the regional development banks such as ADB to fund such projects. A recent report by the Asian Development Bank warned that there is currently $1.7 trillion infrastructure gap that threatens growth in Asia. The 45 countries surveyed in the ADB report, which covers 2016-2030, are forecast to need investment of $26 trillion over 15 years to maintain growth, cut poverty and deal with climate change.
Summary:
China is financing CPEC projects at rates that are comparable to similar projects elsewhere. Chinese loans for infrastructure projects such as rails, roads and ports are at rates (2% or less) below those (3.8%) offered by the Asian Development Bank and the the World Bank. The rate of return on power project investments under CPEC is 17%, somewhat higher than the 13.75 offered by much safer US state of Alabama.
Development of physical infrastructure, including electricity and gas infrastructure, is essential for economic and social development of a country such as Pakistan. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor financing needs to be seen in the context of the large and growing infrastructure gap in Asia that threatens social and economic progress.
An unrelenting campaign of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) about China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been unleashed in the media in recent weeks. This strategy harkens back to the aggressive marketing techniques used by the American computer giant IBM in the 1970s to fight competition. Part of the motivation of those engaged in FUD against CPEC appears to be to check China's rise and Pakistan's rise with its friend and neighbor to the north. As in IBM's case, the greatest fear of the perpetrators of FUD is that CPEC will succeed and lift Pakistan up along with rising China. Their aim is to preserve and protect the current world order created by the Western Powers led by the United States at the end of the second world war. Pakistani government should respond to the FUD campaign against CPEC by countering it with facts and data and increasing transparency in how CPEC projects are being financed, contracted and managed.
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
Harvard Projects 5.97% Growth in Next 10 Years in Pakistan
Media Advertising Boom in Pakistan
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Add Over 2 Million Jobs
Pakistan's Growing Middle Class
Vehicles and Appliance Ownership in Pakistan
Rising Consumer Confidence in Pakistan
Pakistan to Build Massive Dams for Abundant Water and Power
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