ChineseTiger1986
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4 Type 093B built in the past 18 months! Averaging a new sub ever 4.5 months!
1st - May 2022
2nd - January 2023
3rd - June 2023
4th - October 2023
China is expected to launch 2-3 SSNs being built per year, between 2023-2030 or about 16-24 new Type 093 variants of SSNs.
By 2030, China may have 25-33 SSNs or about half the US navy’s SSNs fleet size.
After 2030, China will probably start building type 095 on a similarly massive scale; 2-3 subs a year. The current prototype Type 095 being built is suppose to match at least the Virginia class Block 3 subs (2013 US tech) and the Russian Severodvinsk/Kazan (Yasen/Yasen-M Class), so by 2030, when the type 095 goes into mass production, it maybe closer to the current operational Virginia blocks. So by 2030, Chinese subs will probably match the best of the Russian and British Navy’s SSNs, and close in on the US Navy’s best subs; Virginia block 4/5 (2019/2023 tech).
In 2033/2034, the next generation US SSN sub is suppose to be laid down, so the race is perpetually ongoing. But by that time the Chinese may be less then 10 year behind the cutting edge of the US navy and with the capacity to keep pace in numbers.
By 2040, the PLAN SSN fleet may match the USN in numbers and by 2049, may match all the SSNs of all its potential adversaries combined. If size of the AIP SSK fleet remains the same (and is just continuously modernized) and used to patrol the first island chain’s littorals, then the SSNs will be free to patrol the borders of the first island chain, into the second island chain and the wider ocean. With this many SSKs and SSNs, the PLAN doctrine may even change because its numbers could match the combined fleets of all its Potential adversaries combined.
Btw, there was another report that China wants to have an SSBN fleet of 16 subs, but I don’t have the current reference. 16 subs armed with 16-24 JL-3 or a total SLBM force of 256-384 missiles and probably a mix of 1-4 warheads (plus probably tons of decoys), allowing the PLAN alone to have up to 1000 warheads alone.
The type 094A may be set to match the Borei-A design. Even if China builds 1 SSBN every 2 years as many analysts estimate, China could comfortably reach a total fleet size of 16 by 2049. The type 094A may cap out at 10 subs and then a transition to the type 096 in the 2030s, along side type 095 production.
Chinese Navy has now six Type 094A Jin-class nuclear powered ballistic
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Chinese Navy (PLAN) new Type 096 SSBN may start Strategic Patrol as ea
a Naval Forces News - Chinanavyrecognition.com
The type 096 may a similar design to the following more stealthy design being studied by the Russians.
The Type 095 is going to be equipped with the shaftless electric rim-driven pump-jet, and it is going to be a next generation SSN compared to the Virginia and Yasen.
The Type 093B is going to be comparable to the Virginia class with the similar cylindrical array sonar, similar nuclear reactor with natural circulation system.
In the meantime, the Type 093B possesses 18 VLS units, while the Virginia class only possesses 12 VLS units.
The Type 093B possesses 6 torpedo tubes, and the Virginia class only possesses 4 torpedo tubes.
The Type 093B also weighs over 8000 tons, and it is only smaller than the latest Virginia block v.