China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem

[Beidou2020]

I maintain my prediction that before 2050, United States of America will have collapsed and broken up into smaller individual countries.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

For a declining power, the "sole superpower" sure is afraid of it. Why such fear? America wakes up in cold sweat from its nightmares screaming "CHINAAAA!"

 

[LeGenD]

They said the same about Pakistan. Instead they packed their bags and left humiliated from Afghanistan. Collectively. Today, when they hear Afghanistan they quickly want to change the topic.

China is a different beast. China will only sneeze once and these clowns that are talking about decline will shit in their pants.

They wanted to dismantle Al-Qaeda Network in the Af-Pak region and accomplished this mission. Afghanistan does not matters much to them for now.

Pakistan have its own challenges in the form of having a struggling economy and under FATF scrutiny. Let us not forget the role of IMF in Pakistan's economic affairs. There are additional problems as well.

China have its own set of challenges which will show in time. Aging population is an emerging theme in China for one.

China could benefit much from foreign investment in its mainland (on the scale never witnessed before) but times are changing - USA and China are drifting apart lately. This will affect both countries in different ways. China will have to build its own technologies to persist.

There is also the Global Warming factor which will affect the entire world - in significant ways.

People feel too assured, right?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

China have its own set of challenges which will show in time.

So does America, only in America's case we don't have to wait for some indefinite future

And that's just the beginning.

 

[FuturePAF]

I’m still not convinced Chinas GDP will surpass the US. Even if it does, it could be a very tight race throughout the 2030s and 40s, especially as Chinas GDP growth rates decline.

They invested in a lot of unproductive things and they will be a burden as they attempt to grow out of it. Low quality buildings that go empty and have to eventually be torn down (“nail houses”), although they are/were in a race against time to modernize, until the US realized it was wasting its time in dumb Mideast wars, and China was catching up technologically.

US and the west will have to make BBBW and the EU’s Gateway project work for countries around China, if it hopes to woo them away from projects that will sustain China (as in the Norwegian example from my earlier post). But for that the US will have to drop the Neocon “bringing democracy” mindset and work with these countries more respectfully. Imagine if we had done something similar with Iraq, we wouldn’t have such a mess and have handed over another country on a platter to the Iranians.

Recently VP Harris announced $750 million (investment by private US companies) for the three golden triangle nations of Central America. That’s a drop in the bucket of what they need and what is driving them to come to the US.

China’s GDP may surpass the US when it achieves technological milestones. A commercial airliner that can compete with Boeing and Airbus on price and still match quality. EVs, computer chips, military equipment, 5G, Apps and IT solutions, quick and affordable modular infrastructure for developing countries, like solar panels and wind turbines.

If Chinese companies eat into Western market share in developing countries they could easily exceed the US GDP for a number of decades before coming down in the 2050s or 2060s. Even that decline may not happen; as they may start employing “guest workers” by then in many industries. These guest workers could fill the housing and use the infrastructure similar to expats in Gulf countries sustaining all that had been built in their countries.

Also, if Russia declines enough, they may be open to more Chinese investment into their sectors and into their sphere of influence of Central Asia. So that gives them room to grow Unless the west fills in the gaps in places like Central Asia.

Also, China hasn’t really built up soft power, and that’s is where we in the US exceed them. If they start exporting an internationalized version of their culture that resonates enough in key developing countries, we might be shut out of winning contracts, due to public pressure on those local governments.

It will all come down to management by both powers.

 

[aziqbal]

For a declining power, the "sole superpower" sure is afraid of it. Why such fear? America wakes up in cold sweat from its nightmares screaming "CHINAAAA!"

not afraid just wont allow China to develop any further as China has shown its is not a responsible power

 

[F-22Raptor]

I got some bad news, bruh

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Working-Age Population Total: From 15 to 64 Years for United States

Graph and download economic data for Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Working-Age Population Total: From 15 to 64 Years for United States (LFWA64TTUSM647S) from Jan 1977 to Sep 2024 about working-age, 15 to 64 years, population, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

If China loses 300-500 million people (LOL), then the only thing left in America is going to be tumbleweeds.

The cope is already starting. China's GDP will never surpass the US... China's GDP will never be twice the US... three times... America will catch up. Yeah, it'll catch up around the time the Roman Empire returns.

Chinas peak power is within the next 10-15 years, then a long steady decline to the end of the century. Massive demographic decline and slowing/stagnating growth rates. Xi knows Chinas window is closing relative to the US.

China, a nation with 4x the population of the United States, still has a smaller GDP than the US. That’s an embarrassment every day for China.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

not afraid just wont allow China to develop any further as China has shown its is not a responsible power

Very afraid and America isn't in a position to "allow" China to do anything. China is running wild and not even bothering to laugh at America's pathetic attempt to contain it; hence the fear.

 

[aziqbal]

Very afraid and America isn't in a position to "allow" China to do anything. China is running wild and not even bothering to laugh at America's pathetic attempt to contain it; hence the fear.

yes like Hauwei which was killed by patent infringement now they are making batteries for bikes

 

[F-22Raptor]

For a declining power, the "sole superpower" sure is afraid of it. Why such fear? America wakes up in cold sweat from its nightmares screaming "CHINAAAA!"

The US at one time was also terrified of the Soviets and Japanese “rise.”

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

yes like Hauwei which was killed by patent infringement now they are making batteries for bikes

Huawei wasn't killed, it lost its handset division for a few years for being foolish enough to manufacture with American equipment rather than investing in Chinese equipment. It's an expensive lesson but one that needed to be learned. Sadly for America, it'll be just a few short years before Chinese lithography is at the leading edge and Huawei will be back in the game.

Even more sadly, Huawei's core telecoms equipment business is untouched. Huawei will very soon have access to equipment it can use to fab down to 7nm, more than sufficient for 5G base stations, and it has a massive stockpile of chips at its disposal. China's 5G is so far in the lead it's hopeless for anyone else to even think about competing.

What injured Huawei's phone business wasn't patent infringement, it was American fear and paranoia. In its terror, America played the one and only card at its disposal and temporarily wounded Huawei. What it's also done is give every single Chinese company the incentive to back Chinese semiconductor technology to the hilt. Trump did what a hundred Made in China 2025 plans couldn't do.

 

[FuturePAF]

The US at one time was also terrified of the Soviets and Japanese “rise.”

BUT China is the first real “Full Spectrum” Peer competitor ever in US history. Think about it, we’ve never faced a challenger like the Chinese, since we were the underdogs/young upstarts challenging the British Empire. Their more pragmatic with their money then the Soviets while building up the military, and a hostile power as compared to Japan which was only just a economic competitor.

 

[aziqbal]

Huawei wasn't killed, it lost its handset division for a few years for being foolish enough to manufacture with American equipment rather than investing in Chinese equipment. It's an expensive lesson but one that needed to be learned. Sadly for America, it'll be just a few short years before Chinese lithography is at the leading edge and Huawei will be back in the game.

Even more sadly, Huawei's core telecoms equipment business is untouched. Huawei will very soon have access to equipment it can use to fab down to 7nm, more than sufficient for 5G base stations, and it has a massive stockpile of chips at its disposal. China's 5G is so far in the lead it's hopeless for anyone else to even think about competing.

What injured Huawei's phone business wasn't patent infringement, it was American fear and paranoia. In its terror, America played the one and only card at its disposal and temporarily wounded Huawei. What it's also done is give every single Chinese company the incentive to back Chinese semiconductor technology to the hilt. Trump did what a hundred Made in China 2025 plans couldn't do.

do what you want

as long as Chinese companies are banned from UK and Huawei is one who lost billions from loss of the 5G contract

it was great to see masts come down all over London

 

[LeGenD]

So does America, only in America's case we don't have to wait for some indefinite future

And that's just the beginning.

Yes, anything can happen.

I have edited my previous post.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The US at one time was also terrified of the Soviets and Japanese “rise.”

This is why I insist that people who want to discuss this seriously should pass a high school math exam. Population of Japan: 125 million. Population of America: 330 million. For Japan's GDP to exceed America's, it would have to have >2.64x the per capita GDP.
Population of China: 1,400 million. For China's GDP to exceed America's, it would have to have >0.24x the per capita GDP.
As for the USSR, it was smashed by WWII and had a crippled economic system. If you think the Cold War was what a real superpower struggle is like, you are about to receive an epic education.