China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem

[nang2]

How?

He simply assumes China's productivity will stagnate. With population reduction, (note his estimate of 300-500 million loss of population), GDP would fall.

 

[F-22Raptor]

He simply assumes China's productivity will stagnate. With population reduction, (note his estimate of 300-500 million loss of population), GDP would fall.

It’s why the next 10-15 years for China are so critical. If they can’t surpass US GDP in that timeframe, it may never.

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

Since the 20th century in the modern age, authoritarian states and regimes failed in defeating states which take pride in political and religious freedom. However, in the 21st century, China is able to pose a challenge to America and democracies because of the rise of far right nationalism and extremism. I don't see much of a difference now between France and China when it comes to denial of religious freedom.

 

[Paul2]

Hal Brands

So... the retarded Kissingerites pretty much missed their guidance on global policy by 180°

Now they say they were right all along, because now it's other way around!

 

[Dalit]

They said the same about Pakistan. Instead they packed their bags and left humiliated from Afghanistan. Collectively. Today, when they hear Afghanistan they quickly want to change the topic.

China is a different beast. China will only sneeze once and these clowns that are talking about decline will shit in their pants.

 

[nang2]

It’s why the next 10-15 years for China are so critical. If they can’t surpass US GDP in that timeframe, it may never.

Never say never.

 

[aziqbal]

He simply assumes China's productivity will stagnate. With population reduction, (note his estimate of 300-500 million loss of population), GDP would fall.

but it already has

Chinese double digit growth rate days are long gone

when was the last time China did double digit like 2010?

going forward it will remain low and as such never watch US GDP

 

[nang2]

but it already has

Chinese double digit growth rate days are long gone

when was the last time China did double digit like 2010?

going forward it will remain low and as such never watch US GDP

Do the math. You don't need double digit growth to catch up with US.

 

[aziqbal]

Do the math. You don't need double digit growth to catch up with US.

dream on

 

[nang2]

dream on

For someone like you who doesn't know math, dream is the only thing left to count on.

 

[FuturePAF]

China will likely reach its peak power within the next 10-15 years, then begin a long steady decline to the end of the century as China loses 300-500 million from its population and it’s growth stagnates and declines. If Chinas GDP does surpass the US, I expect US GDP to surpass Chinas by mid century.

I’ve been saying this for some time. Similar to how Japan peaked and now its GDP is shrinking for the past 30 years.

But this is also why BRI is crucial for China. Similar to Nordic countries with smaller populations, contracting out expertise tohelp other develop and owning shares of growing economies around the world is the best way to diversify. Norway’s sovereign wealth is worth $1.5 trillion, with revenue from their oil revenue invested into major stock markets around the world. Especially the US markets.

 

[F-22Raptor]

I’ve been saying this for some time. Similar to how Japan peaked and now its GDP is shrinking for the past 30 years.

But this is also why BRI is crucial for China. Similar to Nordic countries with smaller populations, contracting out expertise tohelp other develop and owning shares of growing economies around the world is the best way to diversify. Norway’s sovereign wealth is worth $1.5 trillion, with revenue from their oil revenue invested into major stock markets around the world. Especially the US markets.

I’m still not convinced Chinas GDP will surpass the US. Even if it does, it could be a very tight race throughout the 2030s and 40s, especially as Chinas GDP growth rates decline.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

China will likely reach its peak power within the next 10-15 years, then begin a long steady decline to the end of the century as China loses 300-500 million from its population and it’s growth stagnates and declines. If Chinas GDP does surpass the US, I expect US GDP to surpass Chinas by mid century.

I got some bad news, bruh

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Working-Age Population Total: From 15 to 64 Years for United States

Graph and download economic data for Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Working-Age Population Total: From 15 to 64 Years for United States (LFWA64TTUSM647S) from Jan 1977 to Sep 2024 about working-age, 15 to 64 years, population, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

If China loses 300-500 million people (LOL), then the only thing left in America is going to be tumbleweeds.

I’m still not convinced Chinas GDP will surpass the US. Even if it does, it could be a very tight race throughout the 2030s and 40s, especially as Chinas GDP growth rates decline.

The cope is already starting. China's GDP will never surpass the US... China's GDP will never be twice the US... three times... America will catch up. Yeah, it'll catch up around the time the Roman Empire returns.

 

[K_Bin_W]

View attachment 801002

Sunday 3 gorges will collapse.

 

[retaxis]

reality facts are simple

China grew 9.5% this year and will overtake america soon
America is declining due to massive demographic changes. Soon brown/black people will outnumber whites and a civil war will likely assume. Under Black/brown/liberal control America will become a lazy hedonistic weak society that becomes parallel with that of Brazil or Mexico.

So future is
Superpower China with hard working sacrificing smart high IQ people
Hispanic Black America run by lazy hedonistic selfish liberals

not much competition to be honest.