123 Agreement and the Peoples Republic of China:
Guest Column: By Bhaskar Roy
SAAG - August 8, 2007
The agreement on peaceful use of nuclear energy, otherwise known as the 123" agreement, reached on August 1,between India and the US, has seriously upset the Chinese authorities. In Beijings perception, if the agreement goes through the US Congress, which is most likely, the
balance of virtual power positions between Beijing and New Delhi in the Asia and Pacific region would undergo a further readjustment in Indias favour. Such a scenario is highly disconcerting for China.
Although the Chinese foreign Ministry was yet to come out with a clear statement on the 123"agreement, they have periodically opposed it on various grounds. Its official reactions are expected some time later since its objections were not taken into consideration in the Indo-US bilateral deal. Beijing is expected to raise its surrogate countries, political groups and experts to exercise pressure before the agreement goes to the US Congress for the final approval in the coming months. Then, of course, are international non-proliferation regimes like the
45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), and the UN nuclear regulatory body, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) responsible for nuclear safeguards, and others.
The Chinese government argues that such an agreement will violate international non-proliferation regimes like the NPT and CTBT to which India is not a signatory. Both these regimes were created to keep India out of the group of recognized nuclear weapons powers. Beijing has repeatedly warned that Indo-US agreement will introduce a power imbalance in South Asia and revive arms race between India and Pakistan. As the last solution China argued USA should extend the same agreement to Pakistan.
Chinas Pakistan proposition has no takers including those in the NSG. Australian Foreign Minister Ted Downer, while assuring supply of uranium to India under the same conditions it has done with China and other countries, made it clear that India had an impeccable record of non-proliferation while even outside the NPT, while Pakistan had little to say about its own.
Another concern raised by China that the 123 agreement will enable New Delhi to further its nuclear weapons programme was shot down by the relevant clauses of the relevant agreement. All imported uranium spent fuel will be in a special facility after use, and the entire process would be safeguarded by the IAEA under a special protocol, after reprocessing. Basically, Indias military programme will have no access to imported fuel.
The Chinese government is, however, not satisfied. It is looking for loopholes, and is suspicious of the ultimate objective of this growing Indo-US relations.
The US-China relationship has recently been undergoing a repositioning under the Bush administration, especially the second term of the US President. From a US-China bilateral strategy in the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century, other important players have begun to stake for space in the region in a neutral foreign policy thrust, for participation. The players among other countries includes India, which irks Beijing.
Following Indias May 1998 nuclear tests (followed by Pakistan), China adopted a holy and emphatic position, with some help from Clinton administration in the USA, to hammer India into a corner. During his visit to China in the autumn of 1998, President Clinton gave in a lot to Beijing including the ombudsmanship of South Asia. Clinton, apparently, had his own compulsions including illegal Chinese funding for his elections.
Temporarily, therefore, the China-US position was that India must roll back its nuclear programme and, only after Indias compliance, Pakistan would follow since India was the first to test its nuclear weapons. A farce was about to be played on India and it is well known Pakistans nuclear weapons programme was made in Beijing, along with the delivery systems like M-11 series of missiles.
Unfortunately for Beijing and its trusted ally Pakistan, the gambit did not work. Too many developments intervened -the Wen Ho Lee case involving transfer of US nuclear warhead design to China; US air attack on the Chinese embassy in Serbia; return of the Republican presidency in the USA; and rise of politically instigated Chinese nationalism targeting US imperialism.
China and its two allies, Pakistan and North Korea, have a less than honourable record of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). It is on record that China is the epicentre of WMD proliferation. Pakistan received WMD technology and components from China illegally. This in turn was supplied to a number of other countries like Libya and Iran- the infamous Dr A.Q. Khan network of WMD proliferation. Beijing also facilitated Pakistan, North Korean exchange of nuclear and missile technology through its territory.
Having completed its strategy of setting up Pakistan as a stand alone nuclear weapon power to counter India, China signed an agreement in 2005 to assist Bangladesh in its civilian nuclear programme including training Bangladeshi nuclear scientists and engineers.
The Indo-US nuclear deal may influence the Chinese to adopt a hard line towards India in some critical respects notwithstanding their fast growing trade and economic relations. This approach became visible from the run up to Chinese President Hu Jintaos visit to India last November. The Chinese adopted a sharp tone on the border issue especially on Tawang, with the Chinese ambassador in New Delhi opening their claim on the whole of Arunachal Pradesh without any apparent reason or provocation. Needless to say; it cast a shadow on the visit. If the aim was to test the resolve of the Indian people on the border issue, the answer was an emphatic no compromise on territorial issues.
Indirect warnings have begun to come from Beijing on Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation and other Indo-US relations including the so-called India, US, Japan and Australia quadrilateral initiative in Asia.
Prof Wang Yiwei of Fudan University Centre for American Studies recently said in New Delhi that the Chinese perception of Indias behaviour or attitude would influence Beijings attitude towards the boundary question. Chinese soldiers do not give personal views publicly. They follow the laid down government line as directed. Prof Wang conveyed what he was told to.
The Chinese are apparently disturbed that their effortt over the last four decades to lock India in South Asia with Pakistans help and surrounding India through other South Asian and Indian Ocean Rim countries may not work any longer. As India grows outwardly the two countries are beginning to interface in different parts of Asia, especially South East Asia.
Speaking at the 14th ARF annual meeting in Manila on Aug 2, Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced India was developing a maritime package for the ARF member-state for civilian security protection like search-and-rescue, anti-piracy etc. The minister also emphasized that nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament are mutually reinforcing̈ and go hand in hand
China perceives that the South China sea is its private Lake. The Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiaci, who was present at the ARF meeting, was apparently constrained. Only about a month back the Chinese navy had attacked Vietnamese fishing boats around the Spratley Islands apparently on Beijings orders. This is the typical Chinese method of teaching a lesson to those who do not fall in line with China.
Beijing has embraced globalisation, which is welcome. It has constructed the Gwadar deep Sea Port in Pakistan, is establishing a container terminal in Hammambota in Sri Lanka, has its listening posts in Myanmar and negotiating for port facilities in Bangladesh. The encirclement of India is obvious in their designs.
It would, therefore, make a mistake if it ties the Indo-US nuclear cooperation to evolve a new belligerent policy towards India. A new instability in the region is to no ones interest.
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