China faces headaches from warming Vietnam-U.S. ties

[F-22Raptor]

At a stroke, the U.S. and Vietnam have complicated the strategic outlook for China over the disputed South China Sea.

As U.S. President Barack Obama marked one of his last trips to Asia by the historic lifting of Washington's arms embargo on Vietnam, he repeatedly insisted it was not directed at Beijing.

And yet regional military sources and security analysts say China will face short and longer term strategic headaches from the fully normalized relationship between former enemies in Hanoi and Washington.

Operationally, China faces the short-term prospect of Vietnam obtaining U.S.-sourced radars and sensors, surveillance planes and drones to better monitor and target Chinese forces, the analysts say.

In the longer term, the move makes Hanoi a key player in Obama's strategic pivot to East Asia. U.S. arms manufacturers will compete with Russia for big-ticket weapons sales to Vietnam. The U.S. Navy may get a long-held wish to use Cam Ranh Bay, the best natural harbor in the South China Sea, military sources say.

Then there is the prospect of political cooperation and greater intelligence sharing over China's assertiveness, according to diplomatic sources, even if Vietnam shuns any formal steps towards a military alliance.

Such moves dovetail with the goals of Vietnam's military strategists who have told Reuters they want to discreetly raise the costs on China's rapidly modernizing forces from attacking Vietnam again.

Vietnam understands that a future conflict with their giant neighbor would be vastly more difficult than the bloody land battles on their northern border that rumbled through the 1980s, or the sea battle over the Spratlys in 1988.

RELYING ON DIPLOMACY

Chinese official reaction has so far been muted.

But Beijing is paying close attention to Vietnam's acquisition of modern weaponry and deployments in the South China Sea, said Ruan Zongze, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, a think tank linked to the Foreign Ministry.

"It's not impossible that this will then impact the territorial issue between China and Vietnam," said Ruan, a former Chinese diplomat.

Zhang Baohui, a mainland security expert at Hong Kong's Lingnan University, said he believed Vietnamese planners knew they could never prevail against the modern Chinese military, so they had to rely on diplomacy to keep stable relations with Beijing.

Zhang said he expected this to continue, despite the Obama visit, saying it was the "cheapest form of defense".

"Vietnam is working the U.S. into an enhanced deterrence strategy," he said. "To enhance its relations with China, they have to play the U.S. card," he said.

CAM RANH BAY

U.S. naval officials say they are keen to gradually increase ship visits, but are aware of Vietnamese concerns over pushing China too hard.

When in March Vietnamese officials announced the opening of a new international port in Cam Ranh to foreign navies, China was one of the first militaries to get a formal invite, according to reports in Vietnam's military press.

U.S. port calls are currently long-planned formal affairs. But U.S. military officials say a servicing agreement is one long term option to allow U.S. warships to make routine visits to Cam Ranh Bay.

Security analysts say even a small increase in ship visits, for example, would complicate China's operations in the South China Sea, now centered on dual-use facilities being built on seven artificial islands in the Spratlys archipelago.

China claims 80 percent of the South China Sea as its territory, while Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei also have overlapping claims across one of the world's most important shipping lanes.

Lifting the embargo not only offers an opportunity for U.S. arms makers in Vietnam but elsewhere in rapidly developing Southeast as well, said a military advisor in Thailand.

"The U.S. sees opportunity and demand opening up in various other countries, such as Laos and Cambodia, which use weapons from Russia and China," said Panitan Wattanayagorn, an adviser to Thailand's Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon.

"Their economies are expanding, but they still have old weapons so there is an opportunity."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-headache-idUSKCN0YI0FK

 

[Beast]

At a stroke, the U.S. and Vietnam have complicated the strategic outlook for China over the disputed South China Sea.

As U.S. President Barack Obama marked one of his last trips to Asia by the historic lifting of Washington's arms embargo on Vietnam, he repeatedly insisted it was not directed at Beijing.

And yet regional military sources and security analysts say China will face short and longer term strategic headaches from the fully normalized relationship between former enemies in Hanoi and Washington.

Operationally, China faces the short-term prospect of Vietnam obtaining U.S.-sourced radars and sensors, surveillance planes and drones to better monitor and target Chinese forces, the analysts say.

In the longer term, the move makes Hanoi a key player in Obama's strategic pivot to East Asia. U.S. arms manufacturers will compete with Russia for big-ticket weapons sales to Vietnam. The U.S. Navy may get a long-held wish to use Cam Ranh Bay, the best natural harbor in the South China Sea, military sources say.

Then there is the prospect of political cooperation and greater intelligence sharing over China's assertiveness, according to diplomatic sources, even if Vietnam shuns any formal steps towards a military alliance.

Such moves dovetail with the goals of Vietnam's military strategists who have told Reuters they want to discreetly raise the costs on China's rapidly modernizing forces from attacking Vietnam again.

Vietnam understands that a future conflict with their giant neighbor would be vastly more difficult than the bloody land battles on their northern border that rumbled through the 1980s, or the sea battle over the Spratlys in 1988.

RELYING ON DIPLOMACY

Chinese official reaction has so far been muted.

But Beijing is paying close attention to Vietnam's acquisition of modern weaponry and deployments in the South China Sea, said Ruan Zongze, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, a think tank linked to the Foreign Ministry.

"It's not impossible that this will then impact the territorial issue between China and Vietnam," said Ruan, a former Chinese diplomat.

Zhang Baohui, a mainland security expert at Hong Kong's Lingnan University, said he believed Vietnamese planners knew they could never prevail against the modern Chinese military, so they had to rely on diplomacy to keep stable relations with Beijing.

Zhang said he expected this to continue, despite the Obama visit, saying it was the "cheapest form of defense".

"Vietnam is working the U.S. into an enhanced deterrence strategy," he said. "To enhance its relations with China, they have to play the U.S. card," he said.

CAM RANH BAY

U.S. naval officials say they are keen to gradually increase ship visits, but are aware of Vietnamese concerns over pushing China too hard.

When in March Vietnamese officials announced the opening of a new international port in Cam Ranh to foreign navies, China was one of the first militaries to get a formal invite, according to reports in Vietnam's military press.

U.S. port calls are currently long-planned formal affairs. But U.S. military officials say a servicing agreement is one long term option to allow U.S. warships to make routine visits to Cam Ranh Bay.

Security analysts say even a small increase in ship visits, for example, would complicate China's operations in the South China Sea, now centered on dual-use facilities being built on seven artificial islands in the Spratlys archipelago.

China claims 80 percent of the South China Sea as its territory, while Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei also have overlapping claims across one of the world's most important shipping lanes.

Lifting the embargo not only offers an opportunity for U.S. arms makers in Vietnam but elsewhere in rapidly developing Southeast as well, said a military advisor in Thailand.

"The U.S. sees opportunity and demand opening up in various other countries, such as Laos and Cambodia, which use weapons from Russia and China," said Panitan Wattanayagorn, an adviser to Thailand's Defence Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon.

"Their economies are expanding, but they still have old weapons so there is an opportunity."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-headache-idUSKCN0YI0FK

http://www.waff.com/story/32037190/the-latest-china-applauds-end-of-arms-embargo-for-vietnam

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) - The Latest on U.S. President Barack Obama's first visit to Vietnam (all times local):

Additional Links

• Obama: Taliban leader's death a 'milestone' for Afghan peace

• US could lift arms embargo on Vietnam amid China tensions

9:40 a.m.

The United States and Vietnam have reached an agreement that will see the Peace Corps set up English-language training programs in the country's two largest cities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

As President Barack Obama continued an historic three-day visit to Vietnam on Tuesday, officials from the two sides signed an agreement that will bring an initial group of about 20 Peace Corps volunteers to Vietnam starting next year.

The program, the first for the Peace Corps in Vietnam, is expected to expand in size in following years and grow to more cities.

The agreement was signed after about a decade of discussions.

4:25 p.m.

China is outwardly lauding the lifting of a U.S. arms embargo on Vietnam, saying it hopes "normal and friendly" relations between the U.S. and Vietnam are conducive to regional stability.

A spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry says weapons embargoes are a product of the Cold War and shouldn't have existed.

China itself remains under a weapons embargo imposed by the U.S. and European Union following 1989's bloody military crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations centered on Beijing's Tiananmen Square.

The lifting of the ban may increase South China Sea tensions as China and other nations in the region argue over territory. The lifting of the ban potentially gives Vietnam more opportunity to stand up to China's ambitions.

3:30 p.m.

The presidents of the U.S. and Vietnam are toasting improved relations between their countries.

At a state luncheon in Hanoi in President Barack Obama's honor, Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang (TrAAN Die Kwang) thanked Obama for traveling so far to help achieve "another crucial milestone" in the U.S.-Vietnamese relationship.

Quang spoke of the long effort to "overcome profound grievances" from the war years, and cited a saying of Ho Chi Minh about welcoming the "warm spring" that follows a cold winter.

Obama offered thanks for all who came before to "help our nations reconcile."

He has singled out Secretary of State John Kerry, who served in Vietnam, for special mention. Obama says veterans on both sides have shown "hearts can change and peace is possible."

2:40 p.m.

The United States and Vietnam have released a joint statement citing examples of how the two nations are deepening ties.

The two nations are hailing an arrangement granting one-year, multiple-entry visas for short-term business and tourism travelers from both countries.

In another development, the U.S. is welcoming the Vietnamese government's approval of the Peace Corps to teach English in Vietnam.

The two nations also reaffirmed efforts to ratify and implement the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-nation trade pact that has struggled to gain traction in Congress during an election year.

The two nations are also stressing efforts to address issues stemming from the Vietnam War with the U.S. investing nearly $90 million in dioxin remediation at the Da Nang International Airport, a project that will finish next year.

1:50 p.m.

President Barack Obama says the death of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Akhtar Mansour should send a "clear signal" to extremists intent on harming U.S. personnel that "we're going to protect our people."

Obama says Mansour was specifically targeting U.S. personnel and troops who were sent to Afghanistan to assist and train the country's military forces.

Obama says Mansour's death doesn't signal a shift in the U.S. approach to countering terrorism in Afghanistan. He says the U.S. will not engage in day-to-day combat operations, but will continue to help the Afghan people secure their country.

Mansour was killed when a U.S. drone fired on his vehicle in the southwestern Pakistan province of Baluchistan. He had emerged as the successor to Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar, whose 2013 death was only revealed last summer.

1:40 p.m.

President Barack Obama says the decision to lift an arm embargo on Vietnam is not based on relations with China, but on a desire to complete what has been a lengthy process of normalizing relations between the United States and Vietnam.

Obama says the U.S. will continue to analyze weapons sales case-by-case, but it won't have a ban based on an ideological division between the two countries.

Obama says the U.S. expects greater cooperation between each nation's militaries, often in response to humanitarian disasters. He also says there is a mutual concern with respect to maritime issues.

1:15 p.m.

President Barack Obama has announced the lifting of an arms embargo on Vietnam, removing a vestige of wartime animosity in an attempt to shore up the communist country in its territorial dispute with an increasingly aggressive China.

Obama made the announcement Monday during a news conference in Hanoi with Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang (TrAAN Die Kwang).

U.S. lawmakers and activists had urged Obama to press for greater human rights freedoms before lifting the embargo.

Washington partially lifted the embargo on arms in 2014, but Vietnam wanted full access as it tries to deal with China's land reclamation and military construction in the disputed South China Sea.

Lifting the restrictions will anger China, which is deeply suspicious of growing U.S. defense ties in areas it sees as its own.

12:10 p.m.

U.S. President Barack Obama and Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang (TrAAN Die Kwang) opened their visit by touting the deepening economic relationship between the two countries.

The presidents attended a signing ceremony celebrating a series of new commercial deals between U.S. and Vietnamese companies. The White House said the value of the transactions was more than $16 billion.

The deals included U.S. engine manufacturer Pratt & Whitney's plans to sell 135 advanced engines to Vietnamese air carrier Vietjet and Boeing's plans to sell 100 aircraft to airline. The White House says the Boeing deal is expected to support 60,000 American manufacturing and technology jobs.

The White House also announced an agreement between GE Wind and the Vietnamese government to develop 1,000 megawatts of wind-generated electricity.

12:06 p.m.

U.S. President Barack Obama starts his visit to Vietnam looking to bolster trade ties with the government, and possibly lift an arms export embargo, even as he meets with dissidents and pushes for greater human rights freedoms from the one-party state.

Obama will try to strike this balance during his three-day visit to a country Washington sees as a crucial, though flawed partner as China seeks to boost its claim to disputed territory in the South China Sea.

Though Vietnam mostly has Russian equipment, lifting the embargo would be a boost for the country. It would show relations are fully normalized and open the way to deeper security cooperation.

U.S. lawmakers and activists have urged Obama to press for greater rights freedoms before granting it.

A decision could come Monday.

Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

The western news simply just write whatever they think and then snap "its China who say all those and think that.'

Simply thinking Vietnam bought a few fancy toy and then they can be a threat to China?

China military budget is USD 150billion per annual and vietnam is not even USD5 billion per year.

Unless, I heard Obama is going to sponsor Vietnam defence budget per annual of USD 30 billion. That might move China a little

 

[yantong1980]

Lol, that Reuters article writer must be top US think-tankers. Vietnam 1-USA 0 Lol!

 

[rott]

OMG surely a massive headache. Where is my balm?

 

[TheTheoryOfMilitaryLogistics]

Viet leaders are far more clever than you,yankees.
If necessary,we can easily "borrow" some american toys from our communist brother,lol.

 

[BoQ77]

Vietnam defends only.

 

[xunzi]

I notice from our American analyst friends who love to write articles that try to get a reaction out of us. Like one of their sensational title like "WATCH OUT CHINA: blah blah" as if we give a BUCK.

 

[dy1022]

 

[windywine]

I think China is glad to see US-Vietnam military tie. The following is several reasons I could think about:
First, more Vietnam spend in military, less spend in economic development. US weapons are usually way expensive and beyond the capability of a country could afford. Back to 1980s, when China was considered as US's ally because of Soviet Union, China couldn't afford to buy most of US made weapons.
Secondly, Vietnam is a traditional ally to Russia, and its military arm system is built on Russian standard. An introduction of different weapons which are incompatible with current standard will cost Vietnam a lot more than weapon itself. BTW, I don't think Russian will be happy to see US-Vietnam tie.
Thirdly, don't forget that Vietnam is still governed by Communist Party. Governments in China and Vietnam both have some common core values. To VC, maintaining stability and governance of communist party in Vietnam is the most priority. I think that's reason why China and Vietnam have tied more deeply in economic term. In 2015, Vietnam's trade deficit with China just reached record high. Sometimes diplomatic bad mouthing is just a mouthing and doesn't reflect what is really going on.

 

[feilong]

China headache or the Russian headaches? Now Vietnam have weapons from US, they can face with China fair and square. Every where Vietnam prime minister go visit Japan or US or EU. They cry a river, and acting like innocent kids. They blame on China big country bully small country. However it is the other way around, it is Vietnam and the PH. China was been closing it eyes for many years, and letting the PH and Vietnam building and stealing China island in SCS. Now the dragon waking up, Vietnam and PH crying a river.

 

[ahojunk]

The rumor - after Obama lifts the arms sanction, Vietnam is going to spend $16 billion in arms purchases from America over the next 8 years.

In other words, $16 billion less to spend on economic and social development for the next 8 years!

But that is Vietnam's choice, they have the right to do what is right for their interests.

 

[windywine]

China headache or the Russian headaches? Now Vietnam have weapons from US, they can face with China fair and square. Every where Vietnam prime minister go visit Japan or US or EU. They cry a river, and acting like innocent kids. They blame on China big country bully small country. However it is the other way around, it is Vietnam and the PH. China was been closing it eyes for many years, and letting the PH and Vietnam building and stealing China island in SCS. Now the dragon waking up, Vietnam and PH crying a river.

They do best just for their country's interest. What I concern is how VietCom to keep its governance and stability. What VietCom faces now is much worse than when China started economic reform. There were millions of Vietnam Refugees flooded to US during Vietnam war. Now most of anti-Vietnam Communist organizations are located in US, and they do have big voice in US politics. How does Vietnam communist party balance US-Vietnam tie with the stability of governance will be a critical issue and challenge.

 

[William Hung]

The rumor - after Obama lifts the arms sanction, Vietnam is going to spend $16 billion in arms purchases from America over the next 8 years.

In other words, $16 billion less to spend on economic and social development for the next 8 years!

According to Chinese officials, China increases its defence budget by 7% this year, bringing it to around $150 billion. So according to your logic, that is $150 billion less to spend on (fixing) China’s economy and social development for this year alone!

 

[ahojunk]

America spends about $600 billion on its military budget. I think it is a good investment as all (if not most of) the money goes to its own military industrial complexes. It helps to spur its R&D. It also generates military exports as America is the world's largest exporter of military equipment. (It makes sense when they go around causing trouble everywhere in the rest of the world, because it generates military exports). It is not in America's interests if the world is peaceful.

Now, take the case of Saudi Arabia. It spends $82 billion on its defense budget. All this money goes towards buying American, European and Russian military equipment. None of this goes towards their own industry or R&D. So, Saudi has $82 billion less to spend on their economic and social development. (By the way, Saudi is trying to move away from being overly dependent on oil and they have $82 billion less to work with). I do sympathize with the Saudi's predicament. They don't have much choice, they have to spend this money considering the situation in Middle East.

In summary, spending money on military or defense could be either good or bad depending on your country's circumstances. Every country will have to take care of its own interests, you just hope your country's leaders make good decisions.

 

[William Hung]

America spends about $600 billion on its military budget. I think it is a good investment as all (if not most of) the money goes to its own military industrial complexes. It helps to spur its R&D. It also generates military exports as America is the world's largest exporter of military equipment. (It makes sense when they go around causing trouble everywhere in the rest of the world, because it generates military exports). It is not in America's interests if the world is peaceful.

Now, take the case of Saudi Arabia. It spends $82 billion on its defense budget. All this money goes towards buying American, European and Russian military equipment. None of this goes towards their own industry or R&D. So, Saudi has $82 billion less to spend on their economic and social development. (By the way, Saudi is trying to move away from being overly dependent on oil and they have $82 billion less to work with). I do sympathize with the Saudi's predicament. They don't have much choice, they have to spend this money considering the situation in Middle East.

In summary, spending money on military or defense could be either good or bad depending on your country's circumstances. Every country will have to take care of its own interests, you just hope your country's leaders make good decisions.

Hehe you are using some funny logic here.

Firstly, the main reason for a country’s defence budget should be for safeguarding national security and sovereignty, not just for profits from exports, R&D, etc. And spending money on national security is just as important as spending money on social developments. So, every country can have a legitimate reason for a defence budget that does not necessitate that the spending must make monetary profits or other gains in return. There doesn’t seem to be any logic behind your comments. Or perhaps, you are trying to say that national security alone should not be a reason to have a defence budget? are you going to say that China’s main reason for military spending is to make profits from arms exports and R&D? Would that not put China in the same position that you had accused the US of being in, a war profiteer?

Secondly, you talked about Saudi Arabia’s arms imports but do you realize that from 2011-2015, China was still the third biggest arms importer in the world? China is ranked right up there just behind India and Saudi Arabia. And I think Saudia Arabia’s infrastructures, development, GDP per capita, etc. is just as good as, if not better than, China’s. SA may have some economic issues that need to be worked on but one of your Chinese official had also recently said China has her own economic issues too. So what you had said about SA with respect to arms import can also be applied to China to different extend.

So with these two points made, do you now see how comical your comments were with its funny logic and double standard? Did you deliberately overlooked your funny logic and double standard, or weren’t you able to see it? or weren’t you able to see it because this Vietnam-US relationship thing had really given you a headache?

Oh, I see you have edited your first post after my comment so maybe your headache had eased a bit, that’s a good sign.