China Economy Forum

[rcrmj]

when is our economy going to 'collapse' according to Gordon Chen ?
and when is the TTP going to 'destroy' our trade according to viets?
and when our society is going to be unproductive because of the aging population according to Indian?

there are too many predictions (from self-claimed China 'experts') to be fulfilled ``` I guess time is always on their side, because what has happened happened, and those infinite possibilities in future are always within their 'grasp' and their 'prediction'

 

[EAsian]

Our economy growth rates go down 0.1%, and westerner cry like hell.So many westerners hope China to go bankrupt.

 

[TaiShang]

Our economy growth rates go down 0.1%, and westerner cry like hell.So many westerners hope China to go bankrupt.

Their hatred and animosity and ill-will is a lesson and constant reminder for us.

 

[TaiShang]

China's robot market is still dominated by foreign players like ABB, Kuka and Yaskawa but China is encouraging its own robot makers with subsidies and the number of Chinese robotics firms is growing fast.

That's definitely the key for the future of robotic industry in China. The bulk of the market cannot be left to foreign players.

194 Chinese Robot Companies
08/12/15

The robotics industry is booming in China. Companies are deploying thousands of robots in all types of factories, particularly in the auto industry. Chinese companies that manufacture robots and their components are also growing. This article will focus on the 107 makers of those robots.

UPDATED 8/17/15: China became the world's largest consumer market of industrial robots for the 2nd consecutive year, according to statistics released by the China Robot Industry Alliance (CRIA). Sales in China increased by 54.6% in 2014 to around 57,000 units, 25% of the global total. Data shows that nearly 17,000 units were made in China with a value of $474M, an increase of 60% from 2013.

Various research reports are predicting that more than 250,000 industrial pick and place, painting and welding robots will be purchased and deployed in China by 2019. That figure represents more than the total global sales of all types of industrial robots in 2014! The Chinese government is encouraging the development of an in-country robotics industry because currently 3/4 of all robots purchased are from off-shore companies (albeit some with manufacturing and assembly facilities in China).

We have been able to identify 47 Chinese companies and 5 startups that call themselves industrial robot makers, and another 26 which offer to provide integration services and speciality equipment. 34 more provide ancillary services, sensors and components to the robot makers. Overall, 107 Chinese companies are involved in industrial robotics. Many of these new industrial robot makers are producing products which, because of quality, safety and design, will only be acceptable to the Chinese market.

In addition to growth in Chinese industrial robotics, progress in the service robotics sector is also healthy. A shining example of the 48 mostly new service robotic companies on the map is Shenzhen DJI Innovations, of quadcopter fame. DJI is projected to sell $1 billion of their devices in 2015. Two other notable growth areas in the service sector are materials handling and the production of unmanned air, sea and ground devices for China's developing space, military and defense industries. The consumer sector is also growing: robotic vacuums and personal/social robots are examples. Last Singles Day, a brand new shopping holiday in China, Alibaba sold over 70,000 Ecovacs robotic vacuum cleaners!

The drivers propelling this boom are many and varied:

• government mandates and political encouragement to develop the industry domestically and ultimately to export product
• low-cost loans and factory property incentives
• tax credits to robot users and also to robot makers that employ local workers
• engineering talent spewing out from Chinese technical universities and research facilities
• rising wages
• diminishing factory-age work force
• a rapidly aging work force hampered by the one-child policy of past regimes
• high cost of training and housing for a short-term transient work force
• ramping up of auto makers to satisfy domestic demand and to improve quality and make Chinese cars for export — for China to have competitive cars in the international marketplace (not just price-competitive), they have to improve quality, consistency and technology — and robotics are enabling them to do so
• serious investment in automation and robotics from companies such as Foxconn and Apple that manufacture their goods in China
• a growing middle and upper class with disposible income for high-tech devices

The Robot Report and the research team at Robo-STOX™ have been able to identify 194 companies that make or are directly involved in making robots in China. The CRIA (China Robot Industry Alliance), and other sources, proffer the number to be closer to 400.

The Robot Report's Global Map is limited by our own research capabilities, language translation limitations, and scarcity of information about robotics companies and their websites and contact people. We could use your help adding to the map. Please send companies that we have missed (or are new) to explore the map online and filter it in a variety of ways. Use Google's directional and +/- markers on the left of the map to navigate, enlarge, and hone in on an area of interest (or double click near where you want to enlarge). Click on one of the colored markers to get a pop-up window with the name, type, focus, location and a link to the company's website.

The Filter pull-down menu lets you choose any one of the seven major categories: (1) Industrial robot makers; (2) Service robots used by corporations and governments; (3) Service robots for personal and private use; (4) Integrators; (5) Robotic start-up companies; (6) universities and research labs with special emphasis on robotics; and (7) Ancillary businesses providing engineering, software, components, sensors and other services to the industry.

As can be seen from the map at the top of the page, most all of the companies and educational facilities are located on the East Coast or in Central China. Very few are located in the Northeast or in Western China.

The research firms predicting dramatic growth for the domestic Chinese robotics industry are also predicting very low-cost devices. Their reports are contradicted by academics, roboticists and others who point out that there are so many new robot manufacturing companies in China that none will be able to manufacture many thousand robots per year and thus benefit from scale. Further, many of the components that comprise a robot are intricate and costly, e.g., reduction gears from Nabtesco, Harmonic Drive and Sumitomo (all Japanese companies). Although a few of the startups are attempting to make reduction gears and other similar devices, the lack of these component manufacturers in China may put a cap on how low costs can go and on how much can be done in-country for the time being. Another negative is that all but auto manufacturers have short product cycles requiring any robots on the line to be extremely flexible. Worker flexibility is still crucial in Chinese manufacturing.

In the chart below, the 194 Chinese companies are tabulated by their business type and area of focus.

Again, we request your help adding to the map and making it as accurate and up-to-date as possible. Please send robotics-related companies that we have missed (or are new)

@Martian2

 

[Martian2]

China imports record 82 million tonnes of iron ore.

You've heard the claim by western media. China's economy is collapsing.
Is it?

Let's look at the 3-month moving average for China's iron ore imports. See chart below and reference the right-hand scale (rhs).

China is importing a record amount of iron ore at 82 million tonnes. So much for the "China collapse" theory.
----------

CHARTS! Chinese imports aren't falling on weak demand | Business Insider

 

[Shotgunner51]

China imports record 82 million tonnes of iron ore.

You've heard the claim by western media. China's economy is collapsing.
Is it?

Let's look at the 3-month moving average for China's iron ore imports. See chart below and reference the right-hand scale (rhs).

China is importing a record amount of iron ore at 82 million tonnes. So much for the "China collapse" theory.
----------

CHARTS! Chinese imports aren't falling on weak demand | Business Insider

Good news, let's continue to import strategic materials.
That will help stabilize trade surplus, and more importantly build strategic reserves.

 

[Jlaw]

China's property investment up 2.6% in first 3 quarters
| October 19, 2015, Monday |

ONLINE EDITION

Investment in China's property sector rose 2.6 percent year on year to 7.05 trillion yuan (US$1.1 trillion) in the first three quarters of 2015, the National Bureau of Statistics announced Monday.

The growth was 0.9 percentage point slower than that in the first eight months and down by 2 percentage points from that in the first half.

China retail sales up 10.9% in Sept.
| October 19, 2015, Monday |

ONLINE EDITION

CHINA'S retail sales of consumer goods grew 10.9 percent year on year in September, slightly higher than 10.8 percent for August, official data showed Monday.

The figure marked the highest rate of growth since the beginning of this year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

In the first three quarters, total sales rose 10.5 percent from a year earlier to 21.61 trillion yuan (US$3.4 trillion).

In the same period, retail sales in rural areas expanded by 11.7 percent, outpacing the rate of 10.3 percent for sales in urban areas.

Online sales surged by 36.2 percent to 2.59 trillion yuan from January to September, totaling about 12 percent in gross retail sales, the NBS said.

@Economic superpower

China's industrial output up 5.7% in September
| October 19, 2015, Monday |

ONLINE EDITION

China's value-added industrial output expanded 5.7 percent year on year in September, down from 6.1 percent in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

Year-on-year growth in the first three quarters stood at 6.2 percent, slightly down from 6.3 percent in the first eight months.

Manufacturing output expanded 6.7 percent, down from 6.8 percent in August. Mining output growth slowed to 1.2 percent from the 4 percent in August. Meanwhile, the output of the electricity, heating, gas and water sectors increased 0.7 percent, down from 1.2 percent last month, the bureau said.

The figures also showed that industrial output in China's western areas rose 8 percent in September year on year, followed by 7.8 percent in central regions and and 6 percent in eastern regions. Industrial output in the northeastern areas dropped 1.8 percent.

China uses value-added industrial output to measure the final value of industrial production, or the value of gross industrial output minus intermediate input, such as raw materials and labor costs.

The NBS data only tracks the output of large Chinese companies with annual primary business revenues of more than 20 million yuan (US$3.15 million).

Only two current indicators I find useful . China's industrial output, and domesic retail sales.

 

[Jlaw]

I need a robot to clean my house and cook.

 

[applesauce]

It still is the slowest for China since 2009. We need China to grow faster so that we can grow fast as well.

China is in the middle of a economic transition from middle income manufacturing power to high income service and consumption based economy, for those of us following the economy for years, this slowdown is not only expected but hoped for so long as it's managed that is. and indicator looks alright, service has been expanding faster for years now. as a bonus the environment will also get a boost

 

[TaiShang]

Fiscal revenue increases 9.4%
Source:Agencies Published: 2015-10-19 23:23:01

China's fiscal revenue rose 9.4 percent in September from a year earlier, while fiscal expenditure jumped 26.9 percent, data from the Finance Ministry showed.

For the first nine months of the year, fiscal revenue rose 7.6 percent from a year earlier and fiscal expenditure rose 16.4 percent, the data showed on Monday.

The rise in spending, which follows a 26 percent jump in August, comes as policymakers continue efforts to invigorate an economy that is facing its slowest rate of expansion in a quarter of a century.

 

[JSCh]

News | October 19, 2015

China Overtakes US As Global Leader In Built Asset Wealth

China has overtaken the US as the world’s wealthiest country measured by the value of its built environment according to the latest Global Built Asset Wealth Index published by Arcadis, the leading Design & Consultancy firm for natural and built assets.

The index calculates the value of all the buildings and infrastructure contributing to economic productivity in 32 countries, which collectively make up 87% of global GDP.

For the first time, built asset wealth in the US no longer leads the world. With wealth of $36.8T, the US now trails China at $47.6T. The US built asset stock is largely unchanged in the past two years, while since 2000, China has invested $33T in its built assets, a total exceeding all other economies combined. The growth is evidence of China’s unprecedented level of investment in its infrastructure – 9% of GDP – which dwarfs global competitors like the US, which currently invests just 2% of GDP.

Tom Morgan, vice president, head of business advisory, North America at Arcadis explains:
“A prosperous society is underpinned by a well-developed built environment that meets the needs of its people and economy. Therefore, a strategically planned, highly developed and well maintained built environment is critical to the economic and social success of a nation.

“Developed economies have experienced a long-term stagnation and decline of their built asset stock, as aging infrastructure falls into disrepair and investment fails to keep up. This decline puts even more urgency on public owners to find creative ways to attract finance, make smarter decisions regarding the maintenance of existing assets and to maximize every dollar spent – the whole asset lifecycle must be considered to meet society’s needs.”

Morgan continues: “China’s ranking this year marks a profound change in the global league table of the world’s wealthiest built asset nations. However, with so much global uncertainty from financial imbalances, unprecedented currency volatility and crashing commodity prices, even China and its fast-growth neighbors will need a renewed focus on quality over quantity.”

Index points to important US trends
The Index notes that while the US built asset wealth embedded in real estate has demonstrated solid long-term growth, public infrastructure has not seen the consistent funding and policy needed to build investor confidence in such long term projects. In addition, the report notes that the US needs to find ways to maintain the integrity and service levels of its aging asset base for less money.

The shifting wealth to emerging economies
The Global Built Asset Wealth Index shows a dramatic shift of wealth to emerging economies, such as Indonesia and Thailand, with the traditional economic superpowers – the G7 – showing a net decline in the value of their built assets since the 2013 report. Structural assets depreciate at a rate of around 5% per year, meaning this level of investment is the minimum required to maintain the status quo, a figure equating to $1.4T in the US.

In Europe, the almost decade-long economic slowdown has also had the negative effect of holding back investment.

Key statistics from the 2015 Global Built Asset Wealth Index:

• China has the largest built asset stock in the world with a total of $47.6T, overtaking the US total of $36.8T.
• China’s heavily investment-dependent growth model means that by 2025 its built asset stock will be worth over double that of the US, and will exceed in size those of the next four economies combined.
• The stock of built assets is closely correlated with a nation’s economic output. On average, countries analyzed have a built asset stock worth 2.9 times GDP.

Per capita leaders:

• The per capita leaders are all Asian economic centers, with Singapore ($191,500 per person) Hong Kong ($160,000), Japan ($143,500) and UAE ($140,500) making up the top five behind Qatar.
• When China’s vast built asset wealth is split across its 1.4B people, its per capita ranking, at just $34,000 per person, falls to 24th in the world, behind Chile ($48,000), Mexico ($47,500) and Thailand ($44,500).
• Qatar’s total built asset stock has grown 677% since 2000.

Decline seen in leading economies outside of China:

• Globally, the largest depreciation of built assets was Japan, which has lost $4.6T in built assets since 2000.
• All European advanced nations underinvested between 2012 and 2014 resulting in an overall decline in infrastructure. However, as a proportion of total built asset stock, Germany’s decline of 21% is the most substantial over this period.
• Other developed economies to have undergone significant net de-investment since 2000 include the Netherlands (-5%), the UK (-8.9%), France (-10.2%) and Russia (-18.7%), while the US stock has remained largely constant (-0.8%).

Overall Arcadis Built Asset Wealth Ranking and Forecast

The full report can be downloaded here Arcadis Global Built Asset Wealth Index 2015

About the study
This research, conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business Research and based on over 20 independent global sources, calculates the value of the buildings and infrastructure in 32 countries, which collectively make up 87% of global GDP. Built asset wealth was broken down into construction (including infrastructure) and machinery and equipment and forecasts were made of stock increases and depreciation.

About Arcadis
Arcadis is the leading global Design & Consultancy firm for natural and built assets. Applying our deep market sector insights and collective design, consultancy, engineering, project and management services we work in partnership with our clients to deliver exceptional and sustainable outcomes throughout the lifecycle of their natural and built assets. We are 28,000 people active in over 70 countries that generate more than $3.5B in revenues. We support UN-Habitat with knowledge and expertise to improve the quality of life in rapidly growing cities around the world. For more information, visit Arcadis - Design & Consultancy for natural and built assets

About Centre for Economic and Business Research
Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) is an independent consultancy with a reputation for sound business advice based on thorough and insightful research. Since 1992, Cebr has been at the forefront of business and public interest research. They provide analysis, forecasts and strategic advice to major multinational companies, financial institutions, government departments, agencies and trade bodies. For more information, visit Centre for Economics & Business Research |leading economic forecasts & analysis

SOURCE: Arcadis

China Overtakes US As Global Leader In Built Asset Wealth

 

[Shotgunner51]

News | October 19, 2015

China Overtakes US As Global Leader In Built Asset Wealth

China has overtaken the US as the world’s wealthiest country measured by the value of its built environment according to the latest Global Built Asset Wealth Index published by Arcadis, the leading Design & Consultancy firm for natural and built assets.

The index calculates the value of all the buildings and infrastructure contributing to economic productivity in 32 countries, which collectively make up 87% of global GDP.

For the first time, built asset wealth in the US no longer leads the world. With wealth of $36.8T, the US now trails China at $47.6T. The US built asset stock is largely unchanged in the past two years, while since 2000, China has invested $33T in its built assets, a total exceeding all other economies combined. The growth is evidence of China’s unprecedented level of investment in its infrastructure – 9% of GDP – which dwarfs global competitors like the US, which currently invests just 2% of GDP.

Tom Morgan, vice president, head of business advisory, North America at Arcadis explains:
“A prosperous society is underpinned by a well-developed built environment that meets the needs of its people and economy. Therefore, a strategically planned, highly developed and well maintained built environment is critical to the economic and social success of a nation.

“Developed economies have experienced a long-term stagnation and decline of their built asset stock, as aging infrastructure falls into disrepair and investment fails to keep up. This decline puts even more urgency on public owners to find creative ways to attract finance, make smarter decisions regarding the maintenance of existing assets and to maximize every dollar spent – the whole asset lifecycle must be considered to meet society’s needs.”

Morgan continues: “China’s ranking this year marks a profound change in the global league table of the world’s wealthiest built asset nations. However, with so much global uncertainty from financial imbalances, unprecedented currency volatility and crashing commodity prices, even China and its fast-growth neighbors will need a renewed focus on quality over quantity.”

Index points to important US trends
The Index notes that while the US built asset wealth embedded in real estate has demonstrated solid long-term growth, public infrastructure has not seen the consistent funding and policy needed to build investor confidence in such long term projects. In addition, the report notes that the US needs to find ways to maintain the integrity and service levels of its aging asset base for less money.

The shifting wealth to emerging economies
The Global Built Asset Wealth Index shows a dramatic shift of wealth to emerging economies, such as Indonesia and Thailand, with the traditional economic superpowers – the G7 – showing a net decline in the value of their built assets since the 2013 report. Structural assets depreciate at a rate of around 5% per year, meaning this level of investment is the minimum required to maintain the status quo, a figure equating to $1.4T in the US.

In Europe, the almost decade-long economic slowdown has also had the negative effect of holding back investment.

Key statistics from the 2015 Global Built Asset Wealth Index:

• China has the largest built asset stock in the world with a total of $47.6T, overtaking the US total of $36.8T.
• China’s heavily investment-dependent growth model means that by 2025 its built asset stock will be worth over double that of the US, and will exceed in size those of the next four economies combined.
• The stock of built assets is closely correlated with a nation’s economic output. On average, countries analyzed have a built asset stock worth 2.9 times GDP.

Per capita leaders:

• The per capita leaders are all Asian economic centers, with Singapore ($191,500 per person) Hong Kong ($160,000), Japan ($143,500) and UAE ($140,500) making up the top five behind Qatar.
• When China’s vast built asset wealth is split across its 1.4B people, its per capita ranking, at just $34,000 per person, falls to 24th in the world, behind Chile ($48,000), Mexico ($47,500) and Thailand ($44,500).
• Qatar’s total built asset stock has grown 677% since 2000.

Decline seen in leading economies outside of China:

• Globally, the largest depreciation of built assets was Japan, which has lost $4.6T in built assets since 2000.
• All European advanced nations underinvested between 2012 and 2014 resulting in an overall decline in infrastructure. However, as a proportion of total built asset stock, Germany’s decline of 21% is the most substantial over this period.
• Other developed economies to have undergone significant net de-investment since 2000 include the Netherlands (-5%), the UK (-8.9%), France (-10.2%) and Russia (-18.7%), while the US stock has remained largely constant (-0.8%).

Overall Arcadis Built Asset Wealth Ranking and Forecast

The full report can be downloaded here Arcadis Global Built Asset Wealth Index 2015

About the study
This research, conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business Research and based on over 20 independent global sources, calculates the value of the buildings and infrastructure in 32 countries, which collectively make up 87% of global GDP. Built asset wealth was broken down into construction (including infrastructure) and machinery and equipment and forecasts were made of stock increases and depreciation.

About Arcadis
Arcadis is the leading global Design & Consultancy firm for natural and built assets. Applying our deep market sector insights and collective design, consultancy, engineering, project and management services we work in partnership with our clients to deliver exceptional and sustainable outcomes throughout the lifecycle of their natural and built assets. We are 28,000 people active in over 70 countries that generate more than $3.5B in revenues. We support UN-Habitat with knowledge and expertise to improve the quality of life in rapidly growing cities around the world. For more information, visit Arcadis - Design & Consultancy for natural and built assets

About Centre for Economic and Business Research
Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) is an independent consultancy with a reputation for sound business advice based on thorough and insightful research. Since 1992, Cebr has been at the forefront of business and public interest research. They provide analysis, forecasts and strategic advice to major multinational companies, financial institutions, government departments, agencies and trade bodies. For more information, visit Centre for Economics & Business Research |leading economic forecasts & analysis

SOURCE: Arcadis

China Overtakes US As Global Leader In Built Asset Wealth

Despite being world's largest, it will be hard for China mainland to match (built asset per capita) Singapore or HK which are advanced city-sized economy. Well let's continue to build asset, urbanize, and close up the gap.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Despite being world's largest, it will be hard for China mainland to match (built asset per capita) Singapore or HK which are advanced city-sized economy. Well let's continue to build asset, urbanize, and close up the gap.

Are there any sources telling us when urbanisation will be deemed as finished? AFAIK, China has around 45% of its population living and working in rural areas. At what percentage of rural population will the Chinese government stop encouraging more people to move to the city?

Since food production for such a large population is a totally different matter than for most other countries, I would think that have a farming population under 20% would be dangerous. Just imagine what would happen if there is a huge crisis in the future where industrial food production would come to a halt and there is nobody knowing how to farm in the traditional way, that would spell disaster for the whole nation.

Here in my country, I would estimate that at least 80% won't know what to do if they are told to grow their own food. Fortunately, I have a big garden where I also grow some veggies and potatoes.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Are there any sources telling us when urbanisation will be deemed as finished? AFAIK, China has around 45% of its population living and working in rural areas. At what percentage of rural population will the Chinese government stop encouraging more people to move to the city?

Since food production for such a large population is a totally different matter than for most other countries, I would think that have a farming population under 20% would be dangerous. Just imagine what would happen if there is a huge crisis in the future where industrial food production would come to a halt and there is nobody knowing how to farm in the traditional way, that would spell disaster for the whole nation.

Here in my country, I would estimate that at least 80% won't know what to do if they are told to grow their own food. Fortunately, I have a big garden where I also grow some veggies and potatoes.

You are absolutely right about food safety for a continental-sized country, it has to be self-reliant sustainable ecosystem, no compromise on this principle. If we look at 2014 GDP composition by sector, agricultural output was close to $1 trillion, 2.7 times that of India, 4.7 times that of USA, so far China is self-sufficient. I believe as infra is more complete, tech/machines/automation being used more widely, agricultural efficiency can only further increase, not decrease. The top agenda for government is to maintain the "red line" policy, i.e. total arable land maintained at no less than 2012 level (135.4 million hectares).

On what's the optimal ratio of urbanization? Well I don't know, on the foundation that food security has been well maintained, apparently the current ratio isn't high and still much room for increase. With higher efficiency in agricultural GDP, more population may join industrial & services sectors in the cities. The challenge is city planning, with better connectivity (e.g. HSR, power/data grid) China can build a lot of small-medium cities, and cap the size of the 50-100 large ones from problematic growing.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

You are absolutely right about food safety for a continental-sized country, it has to be self-reliant sustainable ecosystem, no compromise on this principle. If we look at 2014 GDP composition by sector, agricultural output was close to $1 trillion, 2.7 times that of India, 4.7 times that of USA, so far China is self-sufficient. I believe as infra is more complete, tech/machines/automation being used more widely, agricultural efficiency can only further increase, not decrease. The top agenda for government is to maintain the "red line" policy, i.e. total arable land maintained at no less than 2012 level (135.4 million hectares).

On what's the optimal ratio of urbanization? Well I don't know, on the foundation that food security has been well maintained, apparently the current ratio isn't high and still much room for increase. With higher efficiency in agricultural GDP, more population may join industrial & services sectors in the cities.

Well, I was in fact drawing the worst case scenario as, e.g. all the machines won't work due to EMP detonation/ complete energy embargo. How many people will be able to farm with traditional methods without using any machines, artificial fertilisers, etc.? How many people will still have the millennial old knowledge of farming with their bare hands and a buffalo?