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China Civil Aviation, AVIC (MA600) & COMAC (ARJ21/C919/C929)

C919
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Via @航空工业强度所 from Weixin
 
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one quarter of the year is passed but so far only one ARJ has been delivered in 2021 - right ?
 
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one quarter of the year is passed but so far only one ARJ has been delivered in 2021 - right ?
ARJ21 is just an temporary product. With signing of China eastern airliner confirm buying 5 C919. All Chinese airliner are aiming for C919 rather than ARJ21 as it can carry more passenger with much lower operating cost per person. It tech is also much newer, ease of maintenance and cost.

ARJ21 is just to allow China to gain important lesson in building a narrow passenger jet which meets FAA and EAA requirement. A certain number of fleet of ARJ21 to operate safely, gaining experience and clock millions of passenger safety record to build up made in China passenger airliner reputation.
 
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PLA would never order C919 for at least a couple of decades. Militaries like to operate proven platform with known limitations, flaws and aircraft with easily accessible spare parts.

There is a reason Airbus offers a 30 year old A330 and Boeing a 40 year old 767 for air tankers and transport aircraft. Same goes for 737-700 for P-8 aircraft.

Those designs have been proven and improved over time and have spares available world wide.
But then due to political things, China will need to turn the C919 into some aircraft having no-Western-component at all. And that kind of efforts may not be helpful for the market internationalization of that mainly civilian aircraft. Well, at least not in current stage. Several more years to a decade that thing may be more relevant. Among others the CJ engine needs to be ready first. Better to build military aircraft for military purposes. At least not under COMAC.
 
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Is airline industry likely to grow much in China? They have huge HSR network and expanding. Most likely they will have higher speed maglev also in 10years or so. Most of the airspace is under the PLAF control, so is there much scope for growth in China?
 
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PLA would never order C919 for at least a couple of decades. Militaries like to operate proven platform with known limitations, flaws and aircraft with easily accessible spare parts.

There is a reason Airbus offers a 30 year old A330 and Boeing a 40 year old 767 for air tankers and transport aircraft. Same goes for 737-700 for P-8 aircraft.

Those designs have been proven and improved over time and have spares available world wide.



This does not compute as Airbus(Europe) and Boeing(USA) have a lineage they can draw on but China does not.

CPC will order PLA to obtain military C919s over Russian planes for their military as they consider it more important to become self-sufficient over using proven platforms.
 
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Is airline industry likely to grow much in China? They have huge HSR network and expanding. Most likely they will have higher speed maglev also in 10years or so. Most of the airspace is under the PLAF control, so is there much scope for growth in China?

MediaRoom - News Releases/Statements
Boeing Forecasts Strong Growth in China’s Aviation Market Despite Near-term Challenges

China remains on track to become world’s largest aviation market

20-year demand for commercial airplanes and services worth $3.1 trillion


Beijing, Nov. 12, 2020 Boeing [NYSE: BA] expects China’s airlines to acquire 8,600 new airplanes valued at $1.4 trillion and commercial aviation services valued at $1.7 trillion over the next 20 years, reflecting an expected robust recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. Boeing shared its annual China market forecast today as part of the 2020 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which shows anticipated demand for commercial airplanes and services.

China’s rapidly growing middle class, increased economic growth and growing urbanization are all factors in the Boeing forecast, suggesting the country will lead passenger travel globally in the next few years. Since 2000, China’s commercial jet fleet has expanded sevenfold, and approximately 25% of all aviation growth worldwide in the last decade has come from China. Boeing forecasts this trend will continue over the next 20 years.

“While COVID-19 has severely impacted every passenger market worldwide, China’s fundamental growth drivers remain resilient and robust,” said Richard Wynne, managing director, China Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “Not only has China’s recovery from COVID-19 outpaced the rest of the world, but also continued government investments toward improving and expanding its transportation infrastructure, large regional traffic flows, and a flourishing domestic market mean this region of the world will thrive.”

Despite the challenges imposed by the pandemic, China’s projected airplane and services market represents a nearly 7% increase over last year’s 20-year CMO forecast. These increases are driven by continued high demand for single-aisle airplanes and China’s expanding share of passenger widebodies to support international routes, along with a large replacement cycle as China’s fleet matures. Boeing also anticipates growth in Chinese demand for new and converted freighters and digital solutions to help carriers further innovate and succeed.

The 2020 China CMO includes:
  • Boeing forecasts China’s annual passenger traffic growth to be 5.5% over the next 20 years
  • Boeing estimates operators will need more than 6,450 new single-aisle airplanes in China over the next 20 years. Single-aisle airplanes, such as the 737 family, continue to be the main driver of capacity growth
  • In the widebody market, Boeing forecasts demand for 1,590 deliveries by 2039 in China. Widebody airplanes will account for 18% of China’s deliveries during the 20-year period, down 4% from last year’s forecast due to an anticipated slower recovery in global long-haul traffic
  • China has the world’s highest e-commerce growth rate but significant room for development of air express shipping, presenting an opportunity for robust freighter demand
  • Long-term aviation industry growth in China is expected to drive the need for 395,000 commercial pilots, cabin crew members and aviation technicians to fly and to maintain the country’s airplane fleet
The complete forecast is available at http://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/commercial-market-outlook/.

Boeing is the world's largest aerospace company and leading provider of commercial airplanes, defense, space and security systems, and global services. As a top U.S. exporter, the company supports commercial and government customers in more than 150 countries and leverages the talents of a global supplier base. Building on a legacy of aerospace leadership, Boeing continues to lead in technology and innovation, deliver for its customers and invest in its people and future growth.
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