China Civil Aviation, AVIC (MA600) & COMAC (ARJ21/C919/C929)

[Bilal9]

Previously Chinese airliners and helicopters were powered by Pratt & Whitney turboprop and turboshaft engines.

But Canada has to sfop supplying these engines due to export objection by USA over its technologies to stop China from using them in their military.

I see a similarities in the ban of semiconductors to Huawei and SMIC today.
Yes. It will staggered China for awhile and after that, USA has completely lost control.

Soon it will be an all Made in China own IPR or US technology free suite.

India Tejas which use the GE-404 turbofan face a similar risks of embargo.

That is a theoretical scenario. Coming up with Jet engine by itself in China "soon" will be tough. The ARJ-21 design itself was built from DC-9/MD-8X design and tooling lent to China by MDD in the 90's, and new Russian-designed supercritical wing and engines were added. C919 design was from Chinese local designers.

However developing aero engines and turbines is not simple effort. It took the US over a hundred years to get to the current stage from zero (hijacked Nazi aerospace/jet engine talent and British Whittle turbojet licensing helped after WWII).

It is my estimate that it will take China another ten years at the very least, and more likely fifteen/twenty years even if engine help comes from Russian/Ukrainian engine designers like Ivchenko and Motor Sich. Russian engines are not even 70% as fuel efficient as US/French/British engines are, even today, despite their claims to the contrary. And forget about FAA approving the flight regimes of these Chinese jets.

Unlike ten years ago, the Trump administration is currently very active in blocking technology sales to China (this is his election platform).

So I see the ARJ-21 and C919 projects being delayed by at least fifteen years, not to even talk about C929 (787 competitor).

Sad but this is fact. Homegrown passenger jet engines in China will be a long shot.

 

[samsara]

That is a theoretical scenario. Coming up with Jet engine by itself in China "soon" will be tough. The ARJ-21 design itself was built from DC-9/MD-8X design and tooling lent to China by MDD in the 90's, and new Russian-designed supercritical wing and engines were added. C919 design was from Chinese local designers.

However developing aero engines and turbines is not simple effort. It took the US over a hundred years to get to the current stage from zero (hijacked Nazi aerospace/jet engine talent and British Whittle turbojet licensing helped after WWII).

It is my estimate that it will take China another ten years at the very least, and more likely fifteen/twenty years even if engine help comes from Russian/Ukrainian engine designers like Ivchenko and Motor Sich. Russian engines are not even 70% as fuel efficient as US/French engines are, even today, despite their claims to the contrary. And forget about FAA approving the flight regimes of these Chinese jets.

Unlike ten years ago, the Trump administration is currently very active in blocking technology sales to China (this is his election platform).

So I see the ARJ-21 and C919 projects being delayed by at least fifteen years, not to even talk about C929 (787 competitor).

Sad but this is fact. Homegrown passenger jet engines in China will be a long shot.

Then let's see. If any US blockage will cause delay to ARJ21 and C919 as long as you believe then surely the USA, either under Trump or else, will do for delay of that long will buy them many years to lead while it'll be destructive to the China's aircraft maker. Will one imagine, aircraft production is completely stopped for 15 years because the USA blocks the aircraft engine sales to China???

I simply don't believe that. Time will tell! And better we revisit this IF situation after the Nov election in the USA. If Trump fails to get re-elected, then things will be even less relevant.

@lcloo -- I think he meant "IF" the USA decides to block the aircraft engine sales involving the US maker/tech to both ARJ21 and C919. An IF STATEMENT situation.

And in that "if case", among other things, Boeing can forget its largest export market.

And that IF Situation that you depicted is so drastic that it will create emergency response from the Chinese side. Emergency situation will dictate emergency responses. Under that circumstances, don't ever imagine the Chinese will sit down helplessly waiting for the arrival of some fuel-efficient engine -- and at least by next 15 years in your thinking -- to power the domestically developed aircraft, be it ARJ21 or C919. Or awaiting the US or any other's mercy! Realistically, under such pressing with intention to kill, akin to a warring situation (only without the hot munition exchanges, yet), any applicable engine as long as safe enough will do, the fuel consumption issue can be forgone for the time being, while awaiting the in-progress development of new engine for the commercial aircraft.

 

[lcloo]

So I see the ARJ-21 and C919 projects being delayed by at least fifteen years, not to even talk about C929 (787 competitor).

Sad but this is fact. Homegrown passenger jet engines in China will be a long shot.

You will have to eat your words on this, ARJ-21 has been in commercial service since June 2016.

Deliveries will be increased from year to year. 40 jets have been built, and at least 6 airlines are operating this jet so far. Production in 2021 is expected to be 30 aircraft. Confirmed orders received exceeds 200 aircraft, so the factory will be busy for many years to come.

 

[Indos]

You will have to eat your words on this, ARJ-21 has been in commercial service since June 2016.

Deliveries will be increased from year to year. 40 jets have been built, and at least 6 airlines are operating this jet so far. Production in 2021 is expected to be 30 aircraft. Confirmed orders received exceeds 200 aircraft, so the factory will be busy for many years to come.

Look like China massive high speed train infrastructure still cannot hold the demand for new airplane

 

[lcloo]

This article was written in June last year.

By 2028, China Will Be The World's Largest Domestic Aviation Market

China Will Be the World's Largest Domestic Aviation Market by 2038 with 1.8bn passengers by the 2030s, necessitating significant investments.

simpleflying.com

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

That is a theoretical scenario. Coming up with Jet engine by itself in China "soon" will be tough. The ARJ-21 design itself was built from DC-9/MD-8X design and tooling lent to China by MDD in the 90's, and new Russian-designed supercritical wing and engines were added. C919 design was from Chinese local designers.

However developing aero engines and turbines is not simple effort. It took the US over a hundred years to get to the current stage from zero (hijacked Nazi aerospace/jet engine talent and British Whittle turbojet licensing helped after WWII).

It is my estimate that it will take China another ten years at the very least, and more likely fifteen/twenty years even if engine help comes from Russian/Ukrainian engine designers like Ivchenko and Motor Sich. Russian engines are not even 70% as fuel efficient as US/French/British engines are, even today, despite their claims to the contrary. And forget about FAA approving the flight regimes of these Chinese jets.

Unlike ten years ago, the Trump administration is currently very active in blocking technology sales to China (this is his election platform).

So I see the ARJ-21 and C919 projects being delayed by at least fifteen years, not to even talk about C929 (787 competitor).

Sad but this is fact. Homegrown passenger jet engines in China will be a long shot.

No doubt like projects like Rolls Royce Sprey engine manufacturing, MD-80 assembly was a learning curve for China aerospace industry. But that is decades ago.

Either you are in a stage of denial, overestimating the capabilities of USA and the West or perhaps a belief indoctrinate to you that Chinese are incapable of producing anything high tech e.g. a modern airliner by themselves.

Wake up.
Here is a bit of the info stored in my memory on China progress in its aerospace industries following its engine breakthrough in 2008.

Both the ARJ-21 and C-919 are reality and not conceptual.
Before long 156 seats CR-929 and 400 seats C-939 will become a reality and swarming the skies all over China.

As for front carriage wheel, even Airbus Poly Technology depends on Russia but now it may be done in China for its Tianjin plant.

China processed the world largest hydraulic Forge Press at 80,000 tons. Russia has the 2nd largest HFP at 65,000 tons.

USA biggest HFP is only rated at 50,000 tons if I am not mistakened.

Now you probably figure out why cracks appears in both F-22 and F-35 or why USAF F-35B front carriage wheel started collapsing.

China is the only nations apart from USA capable to produced hollow section single crystal turbine blades. Now they added Rhenium to the Nb-Ti-Alum superalloy as well raising temperature to above 1800 Kelvins.

That is why Rolls Royce started importing Made in China single crystal turbines blades for its problematic Trent turbofan.

 

[serenity]

There are still some areas that is easier to depend on foreign components but if they say no to sale then it can be developed with some time. Not going to take 15 years or even 10 years before C919 is being used by airlines. C929 depends on Russian deal settlement. If they want to leave partnership because of sales cut, they will not give wing technology but they may be happy to sell the wing for a price or even manufacture it for C929.

 

[LKJ86]

So I see the ARJ-21 and C919 projects being delayed by at least fifteen years, not to even talk about C929 (787 competitor)

ARJ21 made its maiden flight in 2008, and C919 in 2017.
What is the so-called "being delayed by at least fifteen years"?

 

[LKJ86]

ARJ21-700

Via @B747SPNKG from Weibo

 

[LKJ86]

Via @航空工业 from Weibo

 

[LKJ86]

Via @上海飞机制造有限公司 from Weixin

 

[LKJ86]

ARJ21-700

Via @杨胖胖不瘦 from Weibo

Via @Jehrenstoneman-Kevin from Weibo

Via @凯文史密龙 from Weibo

 

[Bilal9]

ARJ21 made its maiden flight in 2008, and C919 in 2017.
What is the so-called "being delayed by at least fifteen years"?

There was a question on whether China will be able to come up with a viable, indigenous, fuel-efficient, aero-turbine engine suitable for passenger jets. That is the fifteen year delay I was referring to, provided P&W, Rolls Royce and other engine makers decide not to supply engines for these two Chinese aircraft programs.

 

[LKJ86]

There was a question on whether China will be able to come up with a viable, indigenous, fuel-efficient, aero-turbine engine suitable for passenger jets. That is the fifteen year delay I was referring to, provided P&W, Rolls Royce and other engine makers decide not to supply engines for these two Chinese aircraft programs.

What is your definition of "the fifteen year delay"?

 

[Bilal9]

No doubt like projects like Rolls Royce Sprey engine manufacturing, MD-80 assembly was a learning curve for China aerospace industry. But that is decades ago.

Either you are in a stage of denial, overestimating the capabilities of USA and the West or perhaps a belief indoctrinate to you that Chinese are incapable of producing anything high tech e.g. a modern airliner by themselves.

Wake up.
Here is a bit of the info stored in my memory on China progress in its aerospace industries following its engine breakthrough in 2008.

Both the ARJ-21 and C-919 are reality and not conceptual.
Before long 156 seats CR-929 and 400 seats C-939 will become a reality and swarming the skies all over China.

As for front carriage wheel, even Airbus Poly Technology depends on Russia but now it may be done in China for its Tianjin plant.

China processed the world largest hydraulic Forge Press at 80,000 tons. Russia has the 2nd largest HFP at 65,000 tons.

USA biggest HFP is only rated at 50,000 tons if I am not mistakened.

Now you probably figure out why cracks appears in both F-22 and F-35 or why USAF F-35B front carriage wheel started collapsing.

China is the only nations apart from USA capable to produced hollow section single crystal turbine blades. Now they added Rhenium to the Nb-Ti-Alum superalloy as well raising temperature to above 1800 Kelvins.

That is why Rolls Royce started importing Made in China single crystal turbines blades for its problematic Trent turbofan.

Good.

I am not underestimating Chinese technology capabilities. Far from it. However having technology is one thing, having commercial success is something else (even within China).

One-offs are one-offs and series production are what they are. I will be the first one to cheer when either of these jets get FAA/ESA safety approval.

I have been following the ARJ-21 and COMAC C-919 projects for the last two decades at least, since I became interested.

C-919 AFAIK has not gone into series production (6 prototypes built).

Order book looks to be mainly from Chinese Airlines and lessors. No FAA approval yet.