China can sway chip markets without overtaking U.S.: Chris Miller

[beijingwalker]

China can sway chip markets without overtaking U.S.: Chris Miller​

'Chip War' author says Beijing's policies can impact global semiconductor industry

"Chip War" author Chris Miller says America's relationship with Taiwan is not based solely on semiconductors. (Photo courtesy of CommonWealth Magazine)
LAULY LI, Nikkei Asia tech correspondentMarch 23, 2023 14:29 JST

“The U.S. and its allies will still have the most advanced chip technology in five years’ time but should remain cautious about China’s impact on the market for less-advanced semiconductors, says ‘Chip War’ author Chris Miller. Speaking to Nikkei Asia in Taipei, Miller also argued that America’s political support for Taiwan does not depend on the island’s chip sector — a view at odds with that of industry veteran Morris Chang.

‘If you ask me who’s going to have access to the most advanced technology in five years time, the U.S. or China, I would say the U.S. is going to produce the advanced technology in partnership with the Netherlands, Japan and Taiwan,’ said Miller.

‘That doesn’t mean I know which individual firm will produce the most advanced technology, but I have pretty high confidence that in five years, the most advanced chips will be made somewhere outside of China,’ said Miller, who has spent years researching the history of the semiconductor industry and governments’ industrial policies.”

“Washington has been speeding up efforts to curb Beijing’s tech ambitions, especially in chips, as these tiny components used in everything from smartphones to fighter jets have big implications for national security. In addition to imposing its own export controls on China’s chip sector, Washington this year has persuaded the Netherlands and Japan to likewise limit Chinese access to advanced semiconductor technologies.

But China already has the production technologies and capacity to turn out large amounts of less advanced chips, Miller said, meaning it will be important to monitor Beijing’s industrial policy for the sector.

‘One key question is what is the impact of China’s investments on lagging-edge [chips] to the rest of the world? One of the scenarios is this turns into a new version of solar panels,’ Miller said, referring to China’s policy of heavily subsidizing domestic panel makers and disrupting global prices.”

“Morris Chang, founder and former chairman of the world’s biggest contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., recently backed American efforts to restrain China’s chip progress. But Chang has also said Washington views dependence on Taiwan’s chip sector as a risk and has left the island out of its ‘friend-shoring’ campaign of shifting chip production to friendly countries.

Miller, however, said chips are only a small part of the U.S.-Taiwan relationship. ‘I think the U.S. is not alone in looking at the industry and saying, ‘Wow, 90% of leading-edge capacity in one country in a couple of facilities.’ ‘Tax is the easy part in some ways and incentives are the easy part. The harder part is if you have the infrastructure, the workforce and the ecosystem.’ And customer demand, he said, will be key to the success of any new chip supply chain. ‘I think everyone is focusing on what the governments are doing, but I still think Tim Cook has more influence over the supply chain than Joe Biden.’”

China can sway chip markets without overtaking U.S.: Chris Miller

'Chip War' author says Beijing's policies can impact global semiconductor industry

asia.nikkei.com

 

[beijingwalker]

“The U.S. and its allies will still have the most advanced chip technology in five years’ time but should remain cautious about China’s impact on the market for less-advanced semiconductors, says ‘Chip War’ author Chris Miller.

The west used to claim that it would take decades for China to produce a world class jet engine and China made it in less than 5 years. their predictions are meaningless.