China birth rate up after one-child rule change

[XenoEnsi-14]

Small family size increases the wealth of descendants but reduces evolutionary success

By by China

 

[Brainsucker]

This is a crap piece of advice. Mark my words!

China will soon regret it's population control tactics.

You know, it doesn't even need to strictly control the birth rate. In developed countries, people tend to have fewer children. Because of two things. Education and the living cost. These reason alone has affect the world in general. It also the reason why people from the village has more children than people in the big cities.

In developed countries, people tend to have higher education than in third world countries. So they are more idealistic in the way to improve their children education. Added with the high living cost, they tend to be lazy to have too many children.

It is in contrary to poor countries where the people education still low. They don't care about their children education. Added with the lower living cost (which make life easier), what they care is only sex. Added by a culture, where women status is below her husband, they can have many children without even care about their off spring's future.

Now, looking at China, I think that they just about to become a developed country. Equality in status for both men and women, heavily investment for children education, bigger and developed cities which raise the living cost, and faster move of the economic wheel that can cause stressful work for the people will naturally reduce the will for people to have more children.

As for India.... I wonder, why do you think that they need to have more people than what they have already have now? More people, more work force, true. But only if they have a job. Without that, those exceed of work force can become problem, and can cause instability to the country. Unless..., well...

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

You know, it doesn't even need to strictly control the birth rate. In developed countries, people tend to have fewer children. Because of two things. Education and the living cost. These reason alone has affect the world in general. It also the reason why people from the village has more children than people in the big cities.

Yes, and that is why most of them either have immigration policies, or birth support policies.

Not a single country, with declining and ageing population is doing good. Not a single one!

In developed countries, people tend to have higher education than in third world countries. So they are more idealistic in the way to improve their children education. Added with the high living cost, they tend to be lazy to have too many children.

It is in contrary to poor countries where the people education still low. They don't care about their children education. Added with the lower living cost (which make life easier), what they care is only sex. Added by a culture, where women status is below her husband, they can have many children without even care about their off spring's future.

Ya, and all the more the reason that in this phase population should not be controlled but encouraged.

Now, looking at China, I think that they just about to become a developed country.

Incorrect. China's percapita GDP is still around 8,000 dollars.

I don't know what for you means developed, but for me it means at least 30,000 dollars.

As for India.... I wonder, why do you think that they need to have more people than what they have already have now?

I don't. India's birth rate is okay, and population policies fine.

 

[tranquilium]

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2017/01/24/chinas-birthrate-rises-after-one-child-policy-loosened.html

Huh, so only a year after the policy is implemented, the birth rate INCREASED for 8% and there are articles like this, gee this reminded me of a certain conversation from that sitcom named Titus:

"I just thought he had an alter ego.
You know, like he was a super hero.
The most negative superhero on the planet: Anti-Dad!
“Wherever there is hope, I will stop it! Where self-esteem rears it’s shinny head I will be there to kick it in the testicles!”
“Hey dad, I got a B on my report card!”
“But it’s not an A, is it son! Now that the smile has left your face, I’m off!”
*Anti-Dad pretends to fly off heroically to stage right*
“Hey dad, I graduated high school.”
“Graduated high school, huh, well you didn’t come close to valedictorian, did ya loser? When your confidence returns, so will I.”
“Hey dad I got my first job.”
“First job, huh? Well you ain’t manager yet, are ya fry boy?”
“Hey dad, guess what. I finally made manager.”
“Manager, huh? Well a real man would own his own business. Now leave me alone. I’m off to destroy your brother.”
"

Sour grapes.

 

[Nadhem Of Ibelin]

Incorrect. China's percapita GDP is still around 8,000 dollars.

I don't know what for you means developed, but for me it means at least 30,000 dollars.

According to your logic south korea isn't a developed country!!!!

 

[shadows888]

The coming robotic revolution is going to change the way things work. A higher working population will not necessary give you a huge advantage 20 years from now. China just need to maintain 1 billion+ high wage individuals beyond 2100 for a huge market.

 

[Skylinee]

Good initiative by China to control its population, other countries should take notes

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

China Population Crisis: New Two-Child Policy Fails To Yield Major Gains
by MARK HANRAHAN and ERIC BACULINAO

BEIJING — Despite having the largest population of any country in the world, China isn't having enough babies.

That's the unspoken conclusion of a government plan, published Wednesday, which revealed that the relaxation of China's one-child-only policy has so far failed to boost the country's birth rate enough to avoid significant demographic challenges in the coming decades.

The easing of the one-child policy, which was amended in early 2016 to allow all Chinese families to have two children, helped push the number of births in the country to 17.86 million in 2016, an increase of 7.9 percent over 2015, according to state media reports citing China's National Health and Family Planning Commission. The figure was the highest since 2000.

Other data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics recorded a slightly higher figure of 18.46 million births in 2016.

Despite the increase, China's fertility rate remains below replacement level — at which a population naturally replenishes itself from one generation to the next — where it has languished for years, according to the National Population Development Plan 2016 - 2030, issued by China's State Council, the country's cabinet.

Despite state media trumpeting the increase as evidence of the two-child policy's success, the increase in births is lower than the figure of 20 million for which authorities had hoped — and even that figure would not have allowed the country to sidestep the demographic train rolling toward it.

The report released Wednesday warns that China faces a turning point over the next 15 years, particularly between 2021 and 2030. The aging of the population will accelerate, increasing pressure on social security and public services. At the same time, the working-age population will shrink, damaging economic growth and reducing the tax income required to support the elderly.

The report predicted that a quarter of China's population will be over 60 in 2030, compared with about 16 percent in 2015.

Conversely, the working-age population — those aged between 15-59 — will be 80 million fewer in 2030 than in 2015, according to a statement Wednesday from China's National Development and Reform Commission, cited by the Wall Street Journal.

The report predicts China's population will peak in 2030 at 1.45 billion. It stood at around 1.37 billion in 2015.

Experts suggest that China's demographic crisis is in part a legacy of its attempt at population control through the one-child policy.

"In traditional Chinese culture, more children meant more prosperity, so the traditional household would hope for more children, but the one-child policy has played a role in affecting that," said Jieyu Liu, deputy director of the China Institute at London's School of Oriental and African Studies.

"This recent change to the one-child policy is mostly affecting urban populations," she said. "Since the 1980s, rural households were allowed to have a second child if their first was not a son. I think that after 36 years under the one-child policy, a lot of urban couples have already adapted into this one-child culture."

People with whom NBC News spoke this week on the streets of the Chinese capital expressed concern about the challenges facing parents in China.

Liu Wei, a 27-year-old Beijing resident and mother of a 14-month-old girl, said she was hesitating over having another baby.

"Raising a child is very expensive," she said. "My daughter just had an ordinary cold and we have already spent about $1400 for several days of treatment."

"If the couple are both working, no one would be there to take care of the baby at home," said Wu Fan, 31.

The shop-owner added: "Another reason is expensive housing, especially in Beijing. I plan to have our baby this year, but whether I will want to have a second child I am not sure yet."

All those with whom NBC News spoke on the streets of Beijing this week cited finances as a major obstacle to either having either a first or a second child. Concerns about China's notorious air pollution were also raised.

Experts also told NBC News that low levels of parental leave — four months for women and two weeks to nothing at all for men — along with a lack of affordable child care have diminished parents' desire for a second child.

So, can China's ruling Communist Party fix the problem? Experts suggested the government will struggle to effect meaningful change.

"The bottom line is that this is a very hard area to have any impact on. It's mostly about public attitudes," Professor Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China Institute at London's King's College, told NBC News.

"Trying to have campaigns encouraging people to have bigger families, it's very limited what you can do," he said. "The economic constraints on people in China are very great. It'll probably have a very limited impact, whatever the government does. It's about creating the right mood music as it were."

Despite China's baby deficit, the country has resisted calls from some activists to abandon restrictions on the number of children families can have.

The government's population plan says the environmental carrying capacity, food and water supplies, energy production and the ability of medical and public services to cope would be stretched by too great an increase in population.

For the time being, however, such concerns remain hypothetical.

"The problem," Russell said, "is that many families are just not having many children — period."

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/c...ew-two-child-policy-fails-yield-major-n712536

Rubbish article by the unsurprisingly rubbish and Sinophobic American/Western media.

Whenever Americans/Westerners make gloomy predictions about China and other countries they fear, you should always take their words with a pinch of salt since they are, for the most part, engaged in irrational wishful thinking.

First and foremost, every country in the world, including the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, is going to experience population decline during the 21st century. In fact, population decline is going to become a global trend during the 21st century and is going to apply to every single country, ethnic group and population around the world. For that reason, China will continue to be one of the two largest countries on earth in terms of population size from the year 2100 and onwards, and the Han Chinese people will continue to be the most populous (i.e. the largest) ethnic group in the world indefinitely, just as they've been for thousands upon thousands of years.

Secondly, China is actually lucky in that its male population outnumbers its female population, just like in India. In other words, China has a high ratio of males to females, which is good for population growth. A high ratio of males to females makes it easier for Chinese women to find and marry Chinese men, which, in turn, helps increase China's marital fertility rate. That's why countries like China and India have had very large populations for thousands of years. China's environment/geography has helped maintain a high ratio of males to females over the centuries.

By contrast, countries that have low ratios of males to females, such as Russia and Ukraine, are facing a serious demographic crisis.

Last but certainly not least, China's population witnessed the largest positive annual percentage change in the year 2016 since the early 1980s:

If China can maintain a rate of 18-20 million live births per year from now on -- which it could easily do by virtue of its strong and effective Asian-style central planning -- then China's population can be maintained above 1 billion people well beyond the 21st century.

Honestly, the Westerners should be more concerned about their impending population/demographic problems, which are aplenty. Middle-aged White Americans are dying younger than they ought to be, and Europeans are also dying at a younger age due to high rates of obesity, alcoholism and smoking:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-earlier-age-than-their-grandparents-says-who

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...americans-left-behind-and-dying-early/433863/

https://www.lifezette.com/healthzette/white-americans-dying-younger/

http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/12/america-is-failing-the-bad-break-test-and-people-are-dying.html

A number of Western countries, especially America, are self-destructing as we speak, and yet their media is still more interested in making false gloomy predictions about other countries.

 

[艹艹艹]

China’s population up by 18 million in 2016

 

[LA se Karachi]

First and foremost, every country in the world, including the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, is going to experience population decline during the 21st century. In fact, population decline is going to become a global trend during the 21st century and is going to apply to every single country, ethnic group and population around the world.

Right, and that's not a good thing. Population decline is a problem because of the inverted age pyramid it causes. This puts extreme pressure on the economy and a country's social safety net. The retired and elderly come to outnumber the young. Not to mention that once fertility rates fall below replacement level, they almost never increase again to replacement level, and the population declines indefinitely.

Take Japan, for example:

China:

Secondly, China is actually lucky in that its male population outnumbers its female population, just like in India. In other words, China has a high ratio of males to females, which is good for population growth. A high ratio of males to females makes it easier for Chinese women to find and marry Chinese men, which, in turn, helps increase China's marital fertility rate. That's why countries like China and India have had very large populations for thousands of years. China's environment/geography has helped maintain a high ratio of males to females over the centuries.

That's not a good thing, either. Ideally, a country should have almost the same amount of males and females. A lot men in China will never marry and have children simply because there will be no women to marry:

Gender imbalances can cause many problems in society as well:

"China is already feeling the effects of so many bare branches. The economist Lena Edlund estimates that every one percent increase in the sex ratio results in a six percent increase in the rates of violent and property crime. In addition, the parts of China with the most male-biased sex ratios are experiencing a variety of other maladies, all tied to the presence of too many young men. Gambling, alcohol and drug abuse, kidnapping and trafficking of women are rising steeply in China.

The bare branch problem will be compounded as income inequality rises. China's Gini coefficient of income inequality has risen from less than 0.3, 25 years ago, to almost 0.5 today. On the Gini scale, 0 represents perfect equality while a score of 1 represents complete inequality.

It would be difficult to overstate the urgent need for China to emulate South Korea in eliminating sex-biased abortion and neglect."

http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/14/opinion/china-challenges-one-child-brooks/

Honestly, the Westerners should be more concerned about their impending population/demographic problems, which are aplenty. Middle-aged White Americans are dying younger than they ought to be, and Europeans are also dying at a younger age due to high rates of obesity, alcoholism and smoking:

America will be just fine demographically. It has a relatively liberal immigration policy, and has had one since the 1970s. Our age pyramid looks fine. America is not a mono-ethnic country. Looking at White people alone makes no sense. Europe too is accepting many new immigrants.

As for obesity, it is a problem most wealthy nations face. Countries like Qatar and Kuwait have a higher obesity rate, for example, and others are catching up fast as they continue to develop. Alcoholism too is a problem in most developed, non-Muslim countries.

A number of Western countries, especially America, are self-destructing as we speak, and yet their media is still more interested in making false gloomy predictions about other countries.

Really? Lol, we're doing just fine. Perhaps we've had more problems recently, but we're certainly not "self-destructing".

 

[Jlaw]

good news

 

[ahojunk]

.
.
Sex ratio to balance out by 2030
2017-01-27 12:01 China Daily Editor: Li Yan

China's sex ratio at birth will keep falling and eventually reach a balance within 15 years due to economic and social development and the relaxed family planning policy, the central government has predicted.

The ratio, which was 113.5 men to every 100 women in 2015, one of the highest in the world, is forecast to drop below 112 by 2020 and 107 by 2030, according to the National Population Development Outline released Wednesday by the State Council.

The normal range is between 103 and 107.

China's sex ratio has been skewed by a traditional preference for boys. Population experts have estimated that the imbalance over the past 30 years has resulted in between 24 million and 34 million more men than women.

Wang Pei'an, vice-minister of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, has warned that the gender imbalance could result in serious social problems.

However, thanks to rising social awareness and government efforts, China's sex ratio at birth has declined in recent years. A national guideline released this month said the authorities will continue to intensify the fight against fetus gender identification and sex-selective abortions.

Wednesday's outline estimated that China will see its population peak at 1.45 billion around 2030.

To better monitor demographic changes, the country plans to establish a population forecast system based on censuses and samples surveys that will produce regular reports, the outline said.

It also said governments will continue to monitor the effect of the universal second-child policy as well as closely follow changes in the fertility rate to decide on possible adjustment to the family planning policy.

Yuan Xin, a professor of population studies at Nankai University in Tianjin, said the second-child policy will contribute to a lower sex ratio at birth because it will result in a higher fertility rate, but he added, "The family planning policy should be further relaxed so the ratio can be reduced to a balanced level."

He agreed with predictions that the second-child policy will result in a peak in births in the next few years, but he warned the effect may decline gradually due to the reduced number of women of childbearing age.

About 90 million women became eligible to have another child when the second-child policy was introduced early last year. However, half were aged 40 or older, meaning they are less likely to give birth again, Yuan said.

"Adjustment to the policies should be based on consistent monitoring of the population. A scientific evaluation should be made," the professor added.

 

[nang2]

Population isn't an issue. The stupid policy that prevents the population from trying their best to feed themselves is.

 

[LA se Karachi]

.
.
Sex ratio to balance out by 2030
2017-01-27 12:01 China Daily Editor: Li Yan

View attachment 372983


China's sex ratio at birth will keep falling and eventually reach a balance within 15 years due to economic and social development and the relaxed family planning policy, the central government has predicted.

The ratio, which was 113.5 men to every 100 women in 2015, one of the highest in the world, is forecast to drop below 112 by 2020 and 107 by 2030, according to the National Population Development Outline released Wednesday by the State Council.

The normal range is between 103 and 107.

China's sex ratio has been skewed by a traditional preference for boys. Population experts have estimated that the imbalance over the past 30 years has resulted in between 24 million and 34 million more men than women.

Wang Pei'an, vice-minister of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, has warned that the gender imbalance could result in serious social problems.

However, thanks to rising social awareness and government efforts, China's sex ratio at birth has declined in recent years. A national guideline released this month said the authorities will continue to intensify the fight against fetus gender identification and sex-selective abortions.

Wednesday's outline estimated that China will see its population peak at 1.45 billion around 2030.

To better monitor demographic changes, the country plans to establish a population forecast system based on censuses and samples surveys that will produce regular reports, the outline said.

It also said governments will continue to monitor the effect of the universal second-child policy as well as closely follow changes in the fertility rate to decide on possible adjustment to the family planning policy.

Yuan Xin, a professor of population studies at Nankai University in Tianjin, said the second-child policy will contribute to a lower sex ratio at birth because it will result in a higher fertility rate, but he added, "The family planning policy should be further relaxed so the ratio can be reduced to a balanced level."

He agreed with predictions that the second-child policy will result in a peak in births in the next few years, but he warned the effect may decline gradually due to the reduced number of women of childbearing age.

About 90 million women became eligible to have another child when the second-child policy was introduced early last year. However, half were aged 40 or older, meaning they are less likely to give birth again, Yuan said.

"Adjustment to the policies should be based on consistent monitoring of the population. A scientific evaluation should be made," the professor added.

Very good, if it happens. However, according to this article, it will only drop to 107 by 2030. That's still a bit high. It would be better if it was under 105 (but above 100), which might take longer.

 

[gambit]

He agreed with predictions that the second-child policy will result in a peak in births in the next few years, but he warned the effect may decline gradually due to the reduced number of women of childbearing age.

Source: https://defence.pk/threads/china-bi...child-rule-change.474054/page-2#ixzz4XI4btZxa

The professor is being too kind with his words.

A few yrs are too few to form even a basis for any kind of statistical analysis, let alone prediction. At best, we can look at the growth rate within those few yrs and if that rate do not indicate an increase, we can pretty much write off any hope that the new population control policy will balance out the gender disparity created by the previous population control policy.