Chengdu J-20 5th Generation Aircraft News & Discussions

[siegecrossbow]

Since when the J-8? So far the only front-line unit operational replaced Su-30MKK and given the rumours with Anshan it is another Flanker unit.

Even then you don’t need to replace legacy aircraft on an one-to-one basis.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Since when the J-8? So far the only front-line unit operational replaced Su-30MKK and given the rumours with Anshan it is another Flanker unit.

J-20 replaces J-8 in the twin engine heavy fighter role. J-20 complements various Flanker types.

 

[Figaro]

J-20 replaces J-8 in the twin engine heavy fighter role. J-20 complements various Flanker types.

The J-8 is an interceptor though, not a fighter. The J-8s role could be taken by the J-20, J-16, or the J-10C.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

The J-8 is an interceptor though, not a fighter. The J-8s role could be taken by the J-20, J-16, or the J-10C.

J-8 is Chinese counterpart of MiG-23 / F-4.

 

[samsara]

If I'm not mistaken no one on any website other than this magazine has ever said China will have 200-300 J-20B , so at least in regards to this bit of information it was not taken from "foreign media". meaning either this was a true insider information that they got or in the worst case scenario a pure guess.

And even if it was just a guess in any case the lower estimate they gave (200 fighters) is actually quite conservative so I thought the conservative/pessimistic members would welcome it, reaching the lower pessimistic estimate is actually quite easy, let us take the worst case scenario and say that Pupu's "60 fighters by the end of this year" is an exageration and assume it is actually 36 by end of 2020, if a new improved variant doesn't enter mass production earlier than 2025 that means for the next 4 years (starting from 2021) they will have to produce a total of at least 168 fighters (eg:- 24, 36, 48, 60 fighters per year in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 respectively) to reach 204 fighters.

By the way regarding "professionals" in SDF & PDF, 99% of members on these forums (me included) are armchair generals, the only case in which a person is not an armchair general is if he actually served in the PLAN or PLAAF or has alternatively worked (or is working) on Chinese military aircrafts or in the shipbuilding industry (if it is information related to navy).

Give these thoughts some play:

• how far this magazine knew
• how much truth it revealed
• the xxx number of J-20B variant; how about the possibility of C (with yyy number) even D (zzz number) variants in future?
• what does prevent China from adding new production lines if it wanna jack up the quantity of J-20 series? A better question will be what quantity does China need to meet its defence strategy (with economy constraint, how many can the nation afford?) Compared to the past one or two decades, the current tensions and threats as well as in the future is seemingly getting higher and higher. As the country grows stronger and richer, it draws more attention as well as causes higher irritation to the declining unipolar establishment. The peer rivalry is growing out dangerously and there is no guarantee it'll remain under control and stay peacefully.

At the end the public just know partially what the nation plans and does. Keeping some under sleeves maintains the surprise factor and keep opponent(s) wondering. Guess at best but never draw conclusion prematurely.

 

[Deino]

J-20 replaces J-8 in the twin engine heavy fighter role. J-20 complements various Flanker types.

And this is based on what?? Especially since it contradicts the current PLAAF replacements ... most J-8 units are getting J-16s now.

 

[obj 705A]

the xxx number of J-20B variant; how about the possibility of C (with yyy number) even D (zzz number) variants in future?

Indeed just like what I said this is assuming no new variants are available earlier than 2025, it's all about time, if a J-20C is available 2 or 3 years from now then sure why not when it's available stop J-20B production and start producing the new variant.

better question will be what quantity does China need to meet its defence strategy (with economy constraint, how many can the nation afford?)

The needs of China is that in an all out conventional war with the US they need to be able to at least reach a draw if not outrightly defeat the US, there is a myth that because the US has it's forces spread out it cannot redirect them towards China, how long would it take these forces to be redirected towards China, few days, few weeks? no problem, obviously if they want to wage a war they would be doing all preparations in advance.
that is not to mention America's allies, , if US bases in Japan start targeting China, then China would have to target Japan, meaning you would have to add the the Japanese military to the comparison and then comes Europe, American bombers taking off from there can and will target China. US fighters taking off from Turkey & Qatar can reach western China with a good amount of aerial refueling. ofcourse now one might say "what about Russia?" you can't really depend on Russia, their economy is in ruins and they can barely afford to buy their own weapons that they develope. a 14$ trillion economy which is set to surpass the US GDP some point in the future should not depend on any one else but itself, no such things as economic contraints refer to post #12,644 on page 843, I don't want to copy paste it here.

 

[Figaro]

The J-20 designations are confusing. I assume the J-20s with AL-31Fs are called J-20, the J-20s with the standard WS-10X are called J-20A, and the J-20s with the TVC WS-10X are called J-20B (from the rumors at least). That would mean then the WS-15 version would be called the J-20C.

 

[casual]

China's probably mass producing J20s now even if it did in fact plan to hold out for ws-15 before. The reason being the increased defense pressure from the US recently. Just my own analysis.

 

[S10]

China's probably mass producing J20s now even if it did in fact plan to hold out for ws-15 before. The reason being the increased defense pressure from the US recently. Just my own analysis.

This is enabled by the latest WS-10 variant with 14.5 tons of thrust and FADEC, bringing thrust to weight ratio to more than 10:1. I expect China to have at least another regiment (24 planes) in service by the end of the year, bring the total closer to 90 (60 are known to be in service).

 

[ILC]

60 are not known in service.

 

[Figaro]

60 are not known in service.

Well not known does not mean not exist. I really don't know why people are so shocked at the possibility of over 60 J-20s at this point ... after all we have not seen even a single operational Taihang J-20 even though they've been produced since late 2018. More likely than not, the PLAAF has deliberately increased censorship of the serials or even photographs. So we are truly in the dark when it comes to the numbers.

 

[Deino]

Well not known does not mean not exist. I really don't know why people are so shocked at the possibility of over 60 J-20s at this point ... after all we have not seen even a single operational Taihang J-20 even though they've been produced since late 2018. More likely than not, the PLAAF has deliberately increased censorship of the serials or even photographs. So we are truly in the dark when it comes to the numbers.

Not shocked, but highly sceptical and that's the point.

On the one side we have some reliable reports from some big-shrimps suggesting about "60 until year's end", which is eagerly picked up by some - one forgives me - "fan-boys" as "60 per year", which means 60 in 2018, 2019 and 2020 and as such more than 200. But let us take a look if 60 are possible or realistic.

On the other side - and I'm well aware to ruin the party again - there are those with the minimalist approach accepting only confirmed units and confirmed aircraft numbers.

So as such let me try to put both arguments side by side in the meaning that the truth lies most likely somewhere between the 60 altogether and the about 20 "confirmed".

- 60 per year is highly unlikely (IMO plain impossible) given any so far seen comparable production rate of J-10s, J-11/15/16s. It also does not fit to any other confirmed point and that's the issue:

We know so far exactly 18 J-20s confirmed by individual numbers, we know production of the WS-10C-powered ones started at around mid-2019. Since then we've seen "several" yellow painted ones at CAC ... but: these "several" are altogether only a hand full of images with a maximum of 4 in a shelter together. As such assuming 60 per year - which would equal a rate of 5/month - we must have seen more, we must have seen more delivered to operational units and most of all we must have hear anything on a new Brigade besides the three known ones. Not even Anshan is confirmed even if we have reports since late 2019/early 2020. And I cannot think that all three units at Dingxin, Cangzhou and Wuhu are using 20 each since no satellite image so far shows so many.

- 60 altogether is likely but even here I'm sceptical due to one major argument: namely we have not even rumours on additional units. 60 altogether would fit to my assumption of about 8 each at Dingxin and Cangzhou and maybe 12-16 (aka 2 daduis) at Wuhu. These would be about 32 in the first 3 units and about 28 or exactly one additional brigade - at an so far unknown unit. Again so far there are no rumours of a new unit besides Anshan (1st Brigade) and I'm at least confident that such a high number of J-20s would have been spotted.

Therefore in conclusion I find 60 not unrealistic, but unlikely and my guess would be around 32 aircraft by now and maybe 40 altogether by year's end.

Otherwise I urge all supporters of "there are 60 or even more" to explain, where these missing birds should be?!

 

[obj 705A]

We know so far exactly 18 J-20s confirmed by individual numbers, we know production of the WS-10C-powered ones started at around mid-2019. Since then we've seen "several" yellow painted ones at CAC ... but: these "several" are altogether only a hand full of images with a maximum of 4 in a shelter together.

If you are waiting for photographic evidence then I assure you.. even if you wait for 1 million years you won't get photographs of every new number.
The PLA is not running a National Geographic documentary, they are not obliged to provide photographic evidence of every single aircraft they provide , in fact it is absolutely the opposite & I'm confident that the entire PLA & Chinese intelligence agencies are doing their best to hide the PLA's capabilities in almost every field including number of J-20s available. and why they would do that? well it's just like what a Chinese general said when he was talking about why the PLA is so secretive and sensitive about disclosing it's capabilities when compared to the US, he said the US is like a powerfull muscular man so they like to show off their strength to everybody while China on the other hand is like a skinny one next to the US so China has to do it's best to hide it's capabilities. and even though the CIA probably already knows many of the PLA's secretes still the PLA is doing it's best to hide it's capabilities, so when the PLA is trying this hard to reduce the flow of information to the number one intelligence agnecy that is the CIA.. what makes you think a bunch of civilians sitting on their chair like us could uncover PLA secretes! that is why whatever small evidence you receive through Googling.. it represents a fraction of the true number of fighters.

The only case in which the PLA would stop being this secretive and become less strict about the flow of information to the outside world is when they become as muscular as the US military. and when will that happen? 20 or 30 years from now maybe? do you want to wait that long to get photographic evidence?

 

[Deino]

If you are waiting for photographic evidence then I assure you.. even if you wait for 1 million years you won't get photographs of every new number.
The PLA is not running a National Geographic documentary, they are not obliged to provide photographic evidence of every single aircraft they provide , in fact it is absolutely the opposite & I'm confident that the entire PLA & Chinese intelligence agencies are doing their best to hide the PLA's capabilities in almost every field including number of J-20s available. and why they would do that? well it's just like what a Chinese general said when he was talking about why the PLA is so secretive and sensitive about disclosing it's capabilities when compared to the US, he said the US is like a powerfull muscular man so they like to show off their strength to everybody while China on the other hand is like a skinny one next to the US so China has to do it's best to hide it's capabilities. and even though the CIA probably already knows many of the PLA's secretes still the PLA is doing it's best to hide it's capabilities, so when the PLA is trying this hard to reduce the flow of information to the number one intelligence agnecy that is the CIA.. what makes you think a bunch of civilians sitting on their chair like us could uncover PLA secretes! that is why whatever small evidence you receive through Googling.. it represents a fraction of the true number of fighters.

The only case in which the PLA would stop being this secretive and become less strict about the flow of information to the outside world is when they become as muscular as the US military. and when will that happen? 20 or 30 years from now maybe? do you want to wait that long to get photographic evidence?

That's for sure and nothing I expect (even if that would be great), but given an assumption based on other units - J-10C, J-11B, J-16, ... - that we know about 1/2 to 2/3 of a given unit, and even then I end at 40 or best at between 8-12 for each of the FTTB units and 24-28 units at Wuhu making in summary 48-50 J-20s and still not 60.

This however - and given the public interest in that type - would be needed to sum up to 60+, namely that one complete additional unit is missing. I find it most unlikely that such a high number of J-20s would suddenly come out of the blue especially not one of the premier fighter units which are quite well know.

And one additional argument exactly picking up your "the entire PLA & Chinese intelligence agencies are doing their best to hide the PLA's capabilities" story: In a similar way the PLAAF is hiding a much larger number of J-20 in order to look weaker it could also be that they simply have not more but instead spread such rumours, which were eagerly picked up by the community and even more hyped up by such BS-reporters like Minnie Chan, only to look stronger than they are in fact!

Just a similar - and IMO more likely - option!