Chabahar port will help India bypass Pakistan: Afghan president

[HAIDER]

Its all depend how much Iran give access to India....Iran should keep in mind peace in Baluchistan.

 

[cloud4000]

Let's have a healthy discussion around Chahbahar and Gwadar ports. I have some thought provoking questions:

1 - What will be the trade volume through Chahbahar (between India/ GCC, and Afghanistan/ Central Asia/ Russia) Vs through Gwadar (between GCC, and Central Asia/ China/ Russia)?

2 - What are the risks involved (from Chahbahar to Afghanistan, from Afghanistan to Central Asia) and from Gwadar to China and China to Central Asia)

Given that CPEC will benefit China the most, I believe Gwadar will have the higher trade volume, at least initially. Hard to say who will do better in the long run.

Don't know why people are treating Chabahar/Gwadar like some kind of contest. If everybody can benefit, what's the issue?

 

[Hyde]

If there is one thing Indians are adapt at is lying...

The problem of letting Afghan trucking criss-cross the country is the enormous expense of anti-narcotics surveillance necessary!

in return we can have full access to Central Asian countries. Also the anti-narcotics surveillance will create some jobs for the people, it will be better than that money being wasted on unnecessary expenses of the government

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

6- Afghan Taliban would have to Invade Iran to disturb Chahabhar and being a Pakistani proxy I am not sure how violently would Iran react- I doubt 20000 extra troop will let BLA disturb CPEC at best they can be annoying-

Afghan Taliban dont have to invade Iran... It's already been established that the Afghan Army can barely control cities or towns much less the rural areas.

Please refresh your knowledge of Guerrilla warfare.

Don't know why people are treating Chabahar/Gwadar like some kind of contest. If everybody can benefit, what's the issue?

Gwadar-Pakistan/China

Chabahar- India/Iran

Come-on you been on this forum for 2 years now....

 

[Eminent Mainstream Media]

Afghan Taliban dont have to invade Iran... It's already been established that the Afghan Army can barely control cities or towns much less the rural areas.

Please refresh your knowledge of Guerrilla warfare.

6 - What is the possibility that Afghan Taliban will let the trade happen without any obstruction through Chahbahar? And what is the possibility that Brahmdagh's supporters will succeed in failing CPEC?

Chahbahar is in Iran- Please don't mistake It as an Afghan only initiative-

Now coming to Afghan section- The route connects with Herat- Beyond which is relatively safe road route of Northern Afghanistan- And you are forgetting India has been mining in Insurgency hit areas for over a decade in the central India- We know how to deal with Insurgents-in perhaps the best territory for Guerrilla warfare-

Although It would involve more and more training of ANA and Police and greater cooperation in CI, Intelligence and sharing of data-

 

[my2cents]

Indians this is strictly my opinions based on historical facts and you may disagree but i think in your bitterness and hatred for Pakistan you have shaken hand and sleeping in bed of devil ie usa...see usa is miles from indian oceans and like in past it wont think fot a second to abandon you to rot in the interest of national security Usa of present is not as powerful as usa of past and i dont think it can afford confronting china or russia of today and yes right now you usas darling baby bitch to be exact but i see it abandoning you like it abandoned Pakistan but hey we were never a progressing shinny nation like you and we had less enemies in our neighbourhood so we shifted our policy and now we only have 1 baby bitch and 2 idiotic shits ie ghanis afghanistan (not whole afghanistan) to look for but you in your delusional world of superiory have made many enemies 1 china (freakig powerful) 2 Pakistan (a huge pain in your ***) and 3 ideologically you and iran cant be friends so yoh will have more problems once uncle sams start cheating on you and break your heart!

Problem with you newbies is that you don't read enough to put your thoughts into coherent sentences. Sometime it is your lack of comprehension about world affairs.

Every country does what suits their national interest. Pakistan and USA had a cozy relations for a while but it turned sour because it collided with your national interest. They showed their muscle to have it their way and you guys complied-- otherwise the consequences would have been worse. India is well aware of these dynamics and we are cautious about taking sides. If it suits our national interest if American companies invest in India-- surely we would allow that. Would we allow bases-- certainly not.

With our so called enemy China we do close to 80 billion dollars of bilateral trade. With our so called friend USA we do about 65 billion dollars of bilateral trade. With ideologically different Islamic country Iran we do about 30 billion dollars worth of trade. So go figure out who is our friend or foe.

 

[Rukarl]

Pakistan is Iran's brotherly nation. Iran and Pakistan must work together to develop economically. If Pakistan has issues to be addressed, then we can address that and Pakistan can do the same.

Making our Pakistani brothers develop is important for Iranians, for many reason. One of which is that Pakistan which is strong economically is much less likely to be influenced by the likes of saudis.

What people don't talk about is this:

Linking Chabahar- Gwadar. There is no reason why these ports cannot be joined. If we can develop together, then lets go for it.

 

[khanmubashir]

Chabahar port will help India bypass Pakistan: Afghan president
By Reuters
Published: September 15, 2016
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. PHOTO: AFP

Afghanistan President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani on Wednesday said the Chabahar agreement will help India bypass Pakistan in transporting goods to Pakistan via a sea-land route.

“Why are we so concerned that a country (Pakistan) can block two great nations (India-Afghanistan) from trade? Let’s organise it then, let’s put the logistics in place. Anyway, Chabahar will end the monopoly,” said Ghani, during his visit to India.

Ghani’s comments come at a time when ties between South Asian rivals India and Pakistan are severely hit due to the unrest in Kashmir.

Ghani, who is on a two-day visit, had bilateral talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier in the day. Both leaders agreed that militancy presented the single biggest threat to peace, stability and progress in the region and beyond.

Will Chabahar Port reap greater benefits than Gwadar Port?

Speaking at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, Ghani asserted that making distinction between good and bad terrorism is a “short-sighted” approach.

The Afghan state head said states should help their neighbours and not indulge in maligning them. “They (states) do not behave like maligned non states actors vis-a-vis their neighbours. They see a collective security to be an objective and that’s what brings stability. Stability does not come from the barrel of the gun,” said Afghanistan President, Mohammad Ashraf Ghani.

Pakistan has blamed India for the two-month unrest in Kashmir that has left at least 71 people dead and wounded thousands of others.

Meanwhile, New Delhi has blamed its neighbour for stoking further trouble by pushing militants across the heavily militarised border that divides the region.

Pakistan sees no threat from Iran’s Chabahar port

India in May this year announced that it will build and operate Chabahar port and invest USD 500 million to develop the strategically important port, close to Iran’s border with Pakistan.

Earlier in the day, India and Afghanistan signed three agreements. New Delhi also announced a credit of USD one billion to Kabul.

New Delhi has provided a little over $2 billion in economic assistance to Afghanistan in the last 15 years, but has been more measured in providing weapons in order to avoid a backlash from Pakistan, which sees Afghanistan as its area of influence.

may b they should also bypass Pakistan Pakistan Bans Entry To Afghans Holding Visas For India


http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/27014-

 

[CorporateAffairs]

Stay calm and build the port.
Show the results.
All the best.
India Afghanistan Iran

 

[PakSword]

1- India follows Chabahar for Central Asia and Bandar Abbas for Russian economic corridor so the volume is distributed-

2- Central Asia can be connected directly from Iran too- and most possibly It will be for Western States of Central Asia-

3- To reach the Indian Market the most feasible route is via Afghanistan and Pakistan- But since Pakistan is stubborn Chahbahar is the second most economically feasible all weather route-

4- Chinese companies may Utilize the route to reach Central Asian states as It would be Cheaper to unload the goods at Chahbahar and use Freight transport to reach central Asia, Being an oil importing country Moving goods from China via land on Silk route for long distance would increase the costs-

5- Central Asian States are eager to reach Indian market and invite Indian investments in energy sectors and mining- Russia is more interested in the Bandar Abbas route as It connects the economic centers of Russia directly- Turkey has not shown much interest and I don't see what they would gain- They are already connected to Russian and EU and have their hands full-

6- Afghan Taliban would have to Invade Iran to disturb Chahabhar and being a Pakistani proxy I am not sure how violently would Iran react- I doubt 20000 extra troop will let BLA disturb CPEC at best they can be annoying-

7- Till Pakistan is there-

1 - I asked, what will be the relative trade volumes! Obviously, nobody has the exact figures at this moment, however, in percentage terms, how much more or less trade will be conducted from Chahbahar in comparison to Gwadar.

2 - Direct connection would be too costly.

3 - For Indian markets, yes. But what about other markets? Will they prefer Afghan/ Iran route or China/ Pakistan given the risks involved?

4 - China doesn't need Chahbahar or Gwadar to reach Central Asian republics. I couldn't understand your point.

5 - Any credible sources would be highly appreciated.

6 - Afghan Taliban don't need to invade Iran. They are becoming uncontrollable lately.

7 - Pakistan will be there you like it or not. US will be there in Afghanistan is not guaranteed. What is the future of Indian investments after that?

 

[Eminent Mainstream Media]

1 - I asked, what will be the relative trade volumes! Obviously, nobody has the exact figures at this moment, however, in percentage terms, how much more or less trade will be conducted from Chahbahar in comparison to Gwadar.

2 - Direct connection would be too costly.

3 - For Indian markets, yes. But what about other markets? Will they prefer Afghan/ Iran route or China/ Pakistan given the risks involved?

4 - China doesn't need Chahbahar or Gwadar to reach Central Asian republics. I couldn't understand your point.

5 - Any credible sources would be highly appreciated.

6 - Afghan Taliban don't need to invade Iran. They are becoming uncontrollable lately.

7 - Pakistan will be there you like it or not. US will be there in Afghanistan is not guaranteed. What is the future of Indian investments after that?

1- You yourself say there is no exact figures- How can the percentage be decided- Chahbahar means Iran, India, CIS and Afghanistan- CPEC means Western China, Pakistan and Iran- time will tell-

2- How did you reach that conclusion-

4- Chinese economic centers are on Its Eastern Shores- to bring a finished good to Iran or Central Asia they can take land route and travel whole of China and reach or take the sea route- Do the calculations-

5- It is available in open source- Central Asian states have lots of Natural resources and they need buyers- India is an energy hungry economy-

6- They are totally under the control of Pakistan and were never in control of any other entity- nothing new-

7- I didn't say I disliked Pakistan- It is irrelevant, what matters here is that Afghans dislike Pakistan so much so that even Taliban Govt- has not recognized the Durand line- speaks volumes about Afghan-Pakistan relations- Indian investments were there much before the US came and will remain there even after the US exits-

 

[Ghareeb_Da_Baal]

congratulations!

 

[PakSword]

1- You yourself say there is no exact figures- How can the percentage be decided- Chahbahar means Iran, India, CIS and Afghanistan- CPEC means Western China, Pakistan and Iran- time will tell-

2- How did you reach that conclusion-

4- Chinese economic centers are on Its Eastern Shores- to bring a finished good to Iran or Central Asia they can take land route and travel whole of China and reach or take the sea route- Do the calculations-

5- It is available in open source- Central Asian states have lots of Natural resources and they need buyers- India is an energy hungry economy-

6- They are totally under the control of Pakistan and were never in control of any other entity- nothing new-

7- I didn't say I disliked Pakistan- It is irrelevant, what matters here is that Afghans dislike Pakistan so much so that even Taliban Govt- has not recognized the Durand line- speaks volumes about Afghan-Pakistan relations- Indian investments were there much before the US came and will remain there even after the US exits-

1 - Fair enough. Let's wait.

2 - Looking at maps, it seems there will be approx 400-600 kms of additional drive to certain republics, if the network of roads in Afghanistan is good. I agree that the difference is not huge, but for importers and exporters, every penny counts.

4 - I don't think we are discussing about the trade between China and Central Asia. In any case, China doesn't need sea route to trade with central asian reps. My opinion... and I respect yours.

5 - Your point is valid, however, what do you need that cannot be provided by Iran? I don't know why (if) in the presence of Iran, Central Asian republics are still eyeing Indian markets. My opinion, negligible trade between Central Asia and India if we talk about natural resources (i.e. oil and gas)

6 - Not in control, however, some seminaries have religious influence on them. But yes, they will definitely support the interest of Pakistan. We are not talking about them attacking Iran, but them making the trade insecure.

7 - Pakistan had much more peaceful relations with Afghan Talib government. Any way, we are not talking about them taking over Afghanistan again. What we are discussing is the Indian investment. I don't know what makes you believe that after US departure, Indian investments will be unharmed. Also, can you please provide any credible source that tells us how much investment India made when Afghanistan was in Chaos?

 

[Trisonics]

I remember on this very forum they were quite a few Pakistanis who bragged that India was locked from Central Asian countries, this was when Pakistan had a good influence on Afghanistan. In fact, the word used was "beg".."India will beg for access to the CPEC and Pakistan will dictate its terms or completely block India" was the tone back then.

Chabahar has effectively removed that argument. India now has a safer, better and more friendlier access. Volume of trade at the moment does not matter, neither will how effectively we use it, but being such a big market, we can now dictate what route our imports should take- a super huge loss for CPEC! which otherwise, if Pakistan was smart, could route directly through it's land. Chabahar's and Gwadar's volume of trade is not relevant to India. However, India can rally its friends to some extent against Gwadar.

CPEC has the following potential problems:

1) Security: Yes. Pakistan's security is largely improved but the world lacks that confidence. Hence, security of the goods needs to be high which is an added burden to Pakistan since it is entirely it's responsibility. Add that cost to the loan payment, transit fee may not be enough to sustain the cost incurred.

2) China: China has played it super smart. It can also decide not to use CPEC for some goods meaning it does not get affected even if it decided not to use CPEC. It in fact will continue to get returns for all the investment it has made. Pakistan shot itself in the foot by giving all tenders to CHINA. No global or local competitive bidding for tenders was ever done.

3) FDI: CPEC looks great on paper. It should have had gathered tremendous business interest but look at the FDI in Pakistan, other than China and maybe two more countries, the rest of the world is pulling out of Pakistan. An indicator that obviously can change but is not confidence inspiring considering work on CPEC is going on at brisk pace.

4) Pakistan's Foreign Affairs: India has been successful in making a lot of good friends that have started to cause uneasiness for both Pakistan and China. Throw USA in the mix and Pakistan's incompetent Foreign office, a crack is being formed that can propagate briskly to damage CPEC's real potential.

5) Focus: Pakistan's primary focus should have and needs to be to bring business into its country, something it has continuously failed to do in spite of having a promising project like CPEC.

6) India: Enmity aside, if Pakistan wants to grow rapidly as an economic giant, it cannot ignore India. China will not ignore India! If Pakistan could have taken India into confidence and extended CPEC into India, the chances of success would have been greater.

Lastly,
Pakistan's lack of foresight, strong emotions, corruption, weak leadership will be the only reasons if CPEC would fail to live up to its expectations.

 

[Eminent Mainstream Media]

1 - Fair enough. Let's wait.

2 - Looking at maps, it seems there will be approx 400-600 kms of additional drive to certain republics, if the network of roads in Afghanistan is good. I agree that the difference is not huge, but for importers and exporters, every penny counts.

4 - I don't think we are discussing about the trade between China and Central Asia. In any case, China doesn't need sea route to trade with central asian reps. My opinion... and I respect yours.

5 - Your point is valid, however, what do you need that cannot be provided by Iran? I don't know why (if) in the presence of Iran, Central Asian republics are still eyeing Indian markets. My opinion, negligible trade between Central Asia and India if we talk about natural resources (i.e. oil and gas)

6 - Not in control, however, some seminaries have religious influence on them. But yes, they will definitely support the interest of Pakistan. We are not talking about them attacking Iran, but them making the trade insecure.

7 - Pakistan had much more peaceful relations with Afghan Talib government. Any way, we are not talking about them taking over Afghanistan again. What we are discussing is the Indian investment. I don't know what makes you believe that after US departure, Indian investments will be unharmed. Also, can you please provide any credible source that tells us how much investment India made when Afghanistan was in Chaos?

2- Directly from Iran to Central Asia-

5- Neither Iran nor India would want monopoly- also Its not just about Indian requirements- Reliance is 8th largest oil company- Indian PSUs combined would be in top 10 too and they together make up India's major export chunk other than domestic market- Its a big petrochemical market and not Just oil and gas-

6- You have their Govt- running in exile at Quetta do I need to say more-

7- Back then Indian Investments were made with NA via Central Asia- I think you would get the hint the data is classified- Indian Investments will benefit Afghans and any one attacking the dams, mines and other factories would be taking away the Jobs and Business of Local people- India believes in Involving local people in Its investments- As the time passes such Initiative will be taken in Pashtun dominated areas also- Which will provide Jobs to people in great numbers- An example would be the planned Aluminum smelting plant and a Urea production plant in Iran where Iranians would be employed- In future Afghanistan will have such large plants too- perhaps an oil refinery at Herat-