CASS: China's GDP surpasses US by 2020

[Huan]

I will place my bet on 2017. China has a way of surprising me.

 

[no_name]

I can already seem china developing ahead of required demands. If one assume for china based on develop-when-need basis the prediction can be thrown off.

But I think government should focus on sustainability, green energy and efficient recycling.
I wonder, for example, if stuff like concrete can be recycled.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I will place my bet on 2017. China has a way of surprising me.

I too think so, but 2020 will be a more certain figure, only the naysayers would deny it.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I can already seem china developing ahead of required demands. If one assume for china based on develop-when-need basis the prediction can be thrown off.

But I think government should focus on sustainability, green energy and efficient recycling.
I wonder, for example, if stuff like concrete can be recycled.

That's what they are focusing for now, otherwise you would see the GDP figure even skyrocketing to 17-20% annually if they were really GDP obsessing.

 

[below_freezing]

I can already seem china developing ahead of required demands. If one assume for china based on develop-when-need basis the prediction can be thrown off.

But I think government should focus on sustainability, green energy and efficient recycling.
I wonder, for example, if stuff like concrete can be recycled.

Concrete cannot be recycled. It is a composite ceramic that is resistant to almost all forms of both chemical and physical degradation. You can't burn it, it is inert to acid, base, oxidizers, solvents... you name the chemical process, it doesn't do anything to cement. it doesn't melt, and its extremely tough. If a building goes up in cement, the only way to get rid of it is probably a controlled demolition.

 

[rcrmj]

on chinese forum, the posts were mostly negative```` ordinary chinese people are more concerning about average income rather than GDP```they simply dont give a s**t abt GDP`

 

[rcrmj]

and it also has the implication that the Chinese RMB will go up significently agaisnt US dollar````as the current chinese gdp stands at $5trillion but us at $14trillion, if the growth rate keeps at 10% after 9 years china wouldnt be at 14 trillion``!!

so its the time to buy more RMBs now```````

 

[cross1993]

I think that is 2030.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I think that is 2030.

CASS was always used to be very conservative with their estimate, so this one should be something very certain right now.

 

[no_name]

Concrete cannot be recycled. It is a composite ceramic that is resistant to almost all forms of both chemical and physical degradation. You can't burn it, it is inert to acid, base, oxidizers, solvents... you name the chemical process, it doesn't do anything to cement. it doesn't melt, and its extremely tough. If a building goes up in cement, the only way to get rid of it is probably a controlled demolition.

So then it is a non-renewable material, so what would they do with concrete pieces from knocked down old buildings?

 

[TEXAS BATTLESTAR]

The economic balance is shifting East.

Again!

This is how it has been throughout most of history. The last few centuries were but an aberration.

Hell yeah! Back to the way it should be!

 

[TEXAS BATTLESTAR]

I will place my bet on 2017. China has a way of surprising me.

I will say about 2022, a little after 2020 sounds more realistic to me. That recession really shakes things up world wide.

 

[Aramsogo]

I predict earlier than 2020. Four or fives things will easily do it in nominal terms.
1. Yuan appreciation
2. Wage inflation
3. Expansion of consumer credit
4. Moving up the value chain
5. Lower savings, higher consumption
6. Stability, stability and more stability

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I predict earlier than 2020. Four or fives things will easily do it in nominal terms.
1. Yuan appreciation
2. Wage inflation
3. Expansion of consumer credit
4. Moving up the value chain
5. Lower savings, higher consumption

There was a British article that predicted China's GDP to become number one in the years in between 2017-2019.

 

[Aramsogo]

There was a British article that predicted China's GDP to become number one in the years in between 2017-2019.

It also depends on if this 5th generation leaders are any good.
If they love themselves or love China.