But USA will never be able to attack on Pakistan with full force cuz Geography of Pakistan is very much on Pakistan side against USA. USA will have to rely upon aircrafts carriers and long channels to transport equipments. And in such conditions Pakistan can retaliate well against. Once Pakistan get a major breakthrough or give a big blow to USA they will have to abort the war.
Pakistan is blessed with geography and capabilities that contribute to its "geopolitical significance" one way or the other in modern times. Allah Almighty has rewarded Pakistan in numerous ways but we are taking his gifts for granted and drifting away from his teachings which should be a cause for great concern. I recommend reading Surah al-Isra.
Anyways! American military capability has increased to an extent that it is capable of projecting power in any part of the world and geography will not hinder it.
First, an analogy:-
Tora Bora region in Afghanistan featured a vast number of caves, tunnels and fortifications that [collectively] provided a secure environment to a militia to manage its affairs from there. These hideouts withstood Soviet onslaught in the 1980s and were believed to be virtually impregnable since. However, US-led forces combed and cleared this stronghold in a span of just three weeks in 2002 (i.e. Operation Anaconda).
In-fact, when Operation Anaconda was underway, then US Secretary of State Donald Rumsfled denied a request from an American commander to commit 700 US Army (rangers) to war-effort in Tora Bora - a move that was necessary to entrap and prevent Osama Bin Laden (and his close aides) from slipping into Pakistan but
this request was denied (confirmed in a report submitted to US Senate in 2009 by an American politician John Kerry). Those who managed to slip into Pakistan were hunted down and nabbed from Pakistan over the course of years and Osama was taken out in a compound in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad in 2011. You can connect the dots now.
Anyways, you should know how US collects relevant information. Watch this video first:
Space-Based Infrared System Satellites (SIBRS) network is operational since 2006 with the capability to scan entire surface of the Earth [24/7] to detect and track movement of various objects of interest (ballistic and cruise missiles in particular) in real-time and relay this information to relevant authorities and systems. This network facilitate American missile defense systems in tracking and countering such threats within the sphere of their operations.
FYI:
https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/these-are-the-doomsday-satellites-that-detected-the-exp-1737434876
SIBRS network can pierce through all-weather conditions and detect much smaller objects (in motion) in seamless manner such as mortar rounds and tank shells but the full extent of its capabilities are largely classified.
Emphasis mine. Any ballistic or cruise missile that Pakistan will launch, will be spotted and tracked in real-time. The probability of their intercept increases manifold accordingly, and scores of USN vessels are equipped with Aegis missile defense systems at present.
FYI:
https://missilethreat.csis.org/system/aegis/
Americans also have the capability to detect natural and man-made hideouts through their surveillance capabilities. Some techniques highlighted in the image below.
Known layers of surveillance from space:-
1. Visible imagery (from space)
Some snapshots from two commercial satellites (DigitalGlobe WorldView series) in this link :
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_t..._best_satellite_images_from_digitalglobe.html
"They’re snapshots sent down from DigitalGlobe’s WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellites, among the most powerful commercial satellites orbiting the planet. They’re capable of achieving resolutions so sharp that the U.S. government prohibits them from being released for public view. The examples here have been reduced to levels permissible under federal regulations."
Those photos are just the tip of the iceberg. Majority of people have no idea about the power and capabilities of American spy satellites in orbit at present; these satellites can distinguish objects less than 10 cm across. A recent entry in the orbit known as Zuma is even more powerful (its failure is Fake News).
2. Infrared imagery (from space)
"Infrared imagery provides an alternative to visible imagery by looking for heat sources emitted by deeply buried facilities. Infrared sensors look for heat such as exhaust vents and entrances. Infrared imagery could provide information about facility operations. For example, the level of heat coming from a facility is a key indicator of the activity going on inside." - (Streland, 2003)
3. Hyperspectral imagery (from space)
"Hyperspectral sensors provide another alternative to visible and infrared imagery intelligence. Hyperspectral sensors work in multiple frequency bands beyond the visible and infrared spectrum so they provide the potential for detecting deeply buried facility signatures that cannot be detected by visible or infrared imagery intelligence assets. For example, hyperspectral sensors could be used to detect information about a facility’s operation by examining exhaust gases or water discharge from a deeply buried facility, especially facilities manufacturing chemical or biological weapons. As infrared sensors look for sources of heat, hyperspectral sensors could look for signatures in air or water associated with particular chemicals." - (Streland, 2003)
3. Radar imagery (Sea; Land; Airborne; Space)
"One additional imagery intelligence source capable of producing both images and sets of digital data describing terrain features is radar. Radar imagery systems use electromagnetic beams reflected off the earth’s surface to produce images and digital models of the earth’s surface. The information contained in these digital models is known as Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTED). DTED models contain a series of latitude and longitude points on the surface of the earth, with each point having a terrain height value associated with it. Integrating large numbers of DTED points together can create detailed computer models of the earth’s surface. This data comes from space radar missions including the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) in 1998 and the Canadian RADARSAT spacecraft. Since DTED provides very precise elevation measurements at certain locations on the ground, it could be used to detect activities associated with the construction or operation of deeply buried facilities. A minor change in elevation at a specific location on the ground could be the result of deeply buried facility construction. Large debris piles from cut and cover facility or tunnel construction could register as changes in terrain when examining DTED data from the same location over a period of time." - (Streland, 2003)
Photo of
Boeing X-37B - an unmanned spy shuttle that is capable of functioning in space, beyond the reach of majority of AA/AD systems in service across the world. Its capabilities are largely classified, and its endurance is such that it spent 718 days in space - collecting relevant information - in one of its missions not long ago.
4. Ground Penetrating Radar (Airborne)
US-SL-SAR is an example.
5. SIGINT (NSA)
According to experts, NSA is the most powerful and resourceful intelligence agency in the world. NSA is believed to have a hand in sabotaging an Iranian nuclear facility in Natanz with its cyber warfare capabilities in 2005.
6. MASINT (DIA)
FYI:
https://us.sagepub.com/sites/default/files/upm-binaries/71503_Lowenthal5Disciplines_Chapter_6.pdf
7. Gravity technology (Airborne)
Gravity technology is very impressive and accurate. Keep in mind that deeply buried facilities yield a different gravity then their surroundings. Additionally, these tools can distinguish man-made voids from naturally occurring features.
"Gravity field measurement offers the potential to detect deeply buried facilities in a manner that is very difficult to spoof or confuse." - (Streland, 2003)
Emphasis mine. Few understand the fact that "surveillance" is
the greatest leg of American war-machine in modern times because
situational awareness is the key to success in a high-intensity near-peer battlefield and also a tool of deterrence.
Multi-layered surveillance approach provides a rich picture of developments on the ground across the world and makes it virtually impossible for an adversary to defeat it. Conversely, numerous experts are working behind-the-scenes to study data obtained through various surveillance tools in order to identify and mark positions of what they consider as "strategic assets" from across the world. Pakistani nuclear assets are dispersed across its mainland for increased safety but American surveillance capabilities are top-notch and active [24/7]. No matter what we do, we cannot prevent them from mapping our territory and getting a fix on our strategic assets with their multi-layered surveillance approach. We can continue to enhance safeguards of our strategic assets but we need to come to terms with the reality of vast American surveillance capabilities as well.
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Should hostilities ensue (God forbid), they will try to neutralize our "command and communications infrastructure" with the initial salvo and strike at both
well-known and
suspected sites with subsequent salvo in order to minimize our chances of retaliation. With our "command and communications infrastructure" in disarray, our defenses are likely to falter and defeat would be certain.
Please bear in mind that American war-machine packs tremendous offensive capabilities and is likely to act in the cover of darkness initially. They can strike at
hundreds of potential targets across the country in one-go and deliver salvo after salvo for a prolonged period, taking out thousands of potential targets in the process. Pakistani defenses are not going to hold for long under intense bombardment and chances of retaliation will lessen with each passing minute. Even if we are able to retaliate under intense bombardment, it would be of limited scope and USN vessels are absolutely capable of taking care of anything heading their way. And we need to worry about USAF on top.
Also bear in mind that under the shadow of appropriate situational awareness and long-range precision strike capabilities, it is not difficult to defeat even deeply buried facilities across an hostile environment. Deeply buried facilities tend to have a connection with the outside environment and other forms of openings that can be exploited with the right kind of tools. It may not be possible to outright destroy a deeply buried facility with conventional options [short of NEPW option]; it is certainly possible to render it useless by targeting its entrance points and by sabotaging its vents and such.
Watch this video to get an idea how they disable deeply buried facilities:-
You also need to keep in mind following capabilities:-
There is so much stuff to discuss but I believe that aforementioned information will be sufficient.
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Aforementioned realities notwithstanding, I do not think that US is contemplating destruction of Pakistan. We have shed our blood in support of US-led operations in Afghanistan and in tackling the menace of terrorism in the region, and much of the world have a high opinion of Pakistani efforts in this regard. Pakistan's primary concerns are Kashmir and a stable Afghanistan and these concerns do not affect US in any way or form. So we need not worry.
Agreed! but strategies can be changed based upon events happened. This is a fact that USA, France, Germany and others are so much ahead of us in defence tactics & equipments but this is also a fact that they did blunders in past and afterwards learned from them. Op. Neptune Spear has also educated a lot to Pakistan Security forces. This is that we shouldn't trust on USA as they have no trust on us. So should deploy Chinese equipments on eastern side, so such operations couldn't happen in future.
Mishaps and miscalculations can occur during the course of a conflict but US can literally overwhelm any adversary with the sheer firepower at its disposal.
Operation Neptune Spear might have raised some eyebrows but Pakistan is a country of limited-resources in the end. Chinese equipment does not guarantee anything in the face of overwhelming odds because it is not magic.
We can continue to strengthen our defenses in whatever ways we can but we cannot afford an arms-race with the most powerful country in existence. We do not need to.
"There's always a bigger fish." (Qui-Gon Jinn)
Pakistan needs to fine-tune its diplomacy and transform itself into a hub of international investment much like India and China, IMO. When sword is not the solution, talks and sound policies can do wonders. There are scores of countries in this world which are not nuclear powers but doing very well. Have faith in Allah Almighty, not nukes.
@The Deterrent
@The Diplomat
