By 2022, China’s Navy will outnumber the US and in the 2030s will achieve qualitative parity

[beijingwalker]

By 2022, China’s Navy will outnumber the US and in the 2030s will achieve qualitative parity
brian wang | May 18, 2017 |

China’s Navy will have a larger number of ships and submarines than the US Navy in 2030.

China’s navy will be approaching 500 ships by 2030 and the US Navy will have between 300 and 350 depending upon which budgets get adopted.

China’s navy will be a Blue-Water Naval Power by 2030: China is rapidly transforming itself from a continental power with a focus on its near seas to a great maritime power with a two-ocean focus. The PLAN is looking beyond the san hai – the Yellow Sea, South China Sea, and East China Sea – and out toward the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

By 2020 China will have the second-largest modern amphibious capability in the world (after the United States), and potentially will be able to embark between 5,000–6,000 marines for operations anywhere in the world.

By 2020, the PLAN will surpass Britain, Russia, Japan, and India to become the second largest navy in the world. Some estimates suggest that it will homeport 265–273 major surface vessels and could surpass the U.S. Navy in number as early as 2022.

By 2030, many forecasts suggest that China will be quantitatively on par with the United States, while others suggest Beijing may even have a significantly larger naval order of battle than the United States.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/...he-2030s-will-achieve-qualitative-parity.html

 

[MultaniGuy]

Good news. Looking forward to seeing China becoming a Superpower.

Good for the world.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The SSN/SSGN part is still wrong.

 

[Figaro]

By 2022, China’s Navy will outnumber the US and in the 2030s will achieve qualitative parity
brian wang | May 18, 2017 |

China’s Navy will have a larger number of ships and submarines than the US Navy in 2030.

China’s navy will be approaching 500 ships by 2030 and the US Navy will have between 300 and 350 depending upon which budgets get adopted.

China’s navy will be a Blue-Water Naval Power by 2030: China is rapidly transforming itself from a continental power with a focus on its near seas to a great maritime power with a two-ocean focus. The PLAN is looking beyond the san hai – the Yellow Sea, South China Sea, and East China Sea – and out toward the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

By 2020 China will have the second-largest modern amphibious capability in the world (after the United States), and potentially will be able to embark between 5,000–6,000 marines for operations anywhere in the world.

By 2020, the PLAN will surpass Britain, Russia, Japan, and India to become the second largest navy in the world. Some estimates suggest that it will homeport 265–273 major surface vessels and could surpass the U.S. Navy in number as early as 2022.

By 2030, many forecasts suggest that China will be quantitatively on par with the United States, while others suggest Beijing may even have a significantly larger naval order of battle than the United States.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/...he-2030s-will-achieve-qualitative-parity.html

Brian Wang and his NextBigFuture are not credible sources! Do we seriously have to dedicate a thread to such a website report?

 

[samsara]

WHAT happens with this thread?

WHY is it so cluttered with unrelated posts, some are even junks?

It looks like a Bronx area with no administration, no rules

 

[Sasquatch]

Thread's cleaned and the trolls been banned for derailing.

 

[itsanufy]

By 2022, China’s Navy will outnumber the US and in the 2030s will achieve qualitative parity
brian wang | May 18, 2017 |

China’s Navy will have a larger number of ships and submarines than the US Navy in 2030.

China’s navy will be approaching 500 ships by 2030 and the US Navy will have between 300 and 350 depending upon which budgets get adopted.

China’s navy will be a Blue-Water Naval Power by 2030: China is rapidly transforming itself from a continental power with a focus on its near seas to a great maritime power with a two-ocean focus. The PLAN is looking beyond the san hai – the Yellow Sea, South China Sea, and East China Sea – and out toward the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

By 2020 China will have the second-largest modern amphibious capability in the world (after the United States), and potentially will be able to embark between 5,000–6,000 marines for operations anywhere in the world.

By 2020, the PLAN will surpass Britain, Russia, Japan, and India to become the second largest navy in the world. Some estimates suggest that it will homeport 265–273 major surface vessels and could surpass the U.S. Navy in number as early as 2022.

By 2030, many forecasts suggest that China will be quantitatively on par with the United States, while others suggest Beijing may even have a significantly larger naval order of battle than the United States.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/...he-2030s-will-achieve-qualitative-parity.html

What is the basis of this calculation?
Why it was assumed that US will actually decrease their naval fleet while China will increase.

 

[Gurjeet Walia]

Why Chinese want to out number everyone with small boats? I wonder why Chinese believe in numbers? because of inferior quality or some doubt on their machinery maybe.
One Ohio class sub can unleash such a devastation effect, it is equipped with 24 Trident slbm can knock down all of the Chinese major cities at once. though SSBNs couldn't be used to fight a war.
USN has largest number of super carriers, small carriers, SSN/SSGN those would be used at a real was scenario not small boats on large oceans.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Why Chinese want to out number everyone with small boats? I wonder why Chinese believe in numbers? because of inferior quality or some doubt on their machinery maybe.
One Ohio class sub can unleash such a devastation effect, it is equipped with 24 Trident slbm can knock down all of the Chinese major cities at once. though SSBNs couldn't be used to fight a war.
USN has largest number of super carriers, small carriers, SSN/SSGN those would be used at a real was scenario not small boats on large oceans.

The Type 003/055/095/096 aren't small boats, and China is now producing them like sausages.

BTW, this article is still rubbish and being wrong in many parts.

 

[Figaro]

Why Chinese want to out number everyone with small boats? I wonder why Chinese believe in numbers? because of inferior quality or some doubt on their machinery maybe.
One Ohio class sub can unleash such a devastation effect, it is equipped with 24 Trident slbm can knock down all of the Chinese major cities at once. though SSBNs couldn't be used to fight a war.
USN has largest number of super carriers, small carriers, SSN/SSGN those would be used at a real was scenario not small boats on large oceans.

Quite the opposite! The 096 also has 24 JL-3 tubes, equal to the Ohio's firepower. Or take the 055's 128 VLS tubes, which is double the Zumwalt and 25% greater than the Burkes. It's so big that ppl refer to it as a cruiser. And let's try not to start a flame war with your "machinery" statements ...

By 2022, China’s Navy will outnumber the US and in the 2030s will achieve qualitative parity
brian wang | May 18, 2017 |

China’s Navy will have a larger number of ships and submarines than the US Navy in 2030.

China’s navy will be approaching 500 ships by 2030 and the US Navy will have between 300 and 350 depending upon which budgets get adopted.

China’s navy will be a Blue-Water Naval Power by 2030: China is rapidly transforming itself from a continental power with a focus on its near seas to a great maritime power with a two-ocean focus. The PLAN is looking beyond the san hai – the Yellow Sea, South China Sea, and East China Sea – and out toward the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

By 2020 China will have the second-largest modern amphibious capability in the world (after the United States), and potentially will be able to embark between 5,000–6,000 marines for operations anywhere in the world.

By 2020, the PLAN will surpass Britain, Russia, Japan, and India to become the second largest navy in the world. Some estimates suggest that it will homeport 265–273 major surface vessels and could surpass the U.S. Navy in number as early as 2022.

By 2030, many forecasts suggest that China will be quantitatively on par with the United States, while others suggest Beijing may even have a significantly larger naval order of battle than the United States.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/...he-2030s-will-achieve-qualitative-parity.html

This article is complete junk! I saw this on NBF 2 years ago! Brian Wang rips off crappy articles and mashes them together in his PLA articles which he then recycles (similar to national interest).

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Quite the opposite! The 096 also has 24 JL-3 tubes, equal to the Ohio's firepower. Or take the 055's 128 VLS tubes, which is double the Zumwalt and 25% greater than the Burkes. It's so big that ppl refer to it as a cruiser. And let's try not to start a flame war with your "machinery" statements ...


This article is complete junk! I saw this on NBF 2 years ago! Brian Wang rips off crappy articles and mashes them together in his PLA articles which he then recycles (similar to national interest).

The Type 096 will carry 16 SLBMs just like the next generation Columbia class for the USN.

Since 24 SLBMs will sacrifice a lot of endurance and reinforcement structure for the boat, so China eventually decided to let the next generation boomer carrying 16 SLBMs instead of 24. And 12 of these new class of the SSBN will likely be built.

16 X 12 = 192 JL-3 SLBMs

That's sufficient for China's coming upgrade for the naval deterrence.

BTW, this article is junk because it attempted to portray China like North Korea to use small boats to outnumber the USN. Everyone with slight knowledge can figure that China is the only nation who can match the US in the production rate of the capital ships.

 

[Figaro]

The Type 096 will carry 16 SLBMs just like the next generation Columbia class for the USN.

Since 24 SLBMs will sacrifice a lot of endurance and reinforcement structure for the boat, so China eventually decided to let the next generation boomer carrying 16 SLBMs instead of 24. And 12 of these new class of the SSBN will likely be built.

16 X 12 = 192 JL-3 SLBMs

That's sufficient for China's coming upgrade for the naval deterrence.

BTW, this article is junk because it attempted to portray China like North Korea to use small boats to outnumber the USN. Everyone with slight knowledge can figure that China is the only nation who can match the US in the production rate of the capital ships.

Hmm very interesting... can u provide me your source for 16 vs 24. Regarding number of missile tubes, it's not really that important considering that JL-3 carry mirvs. Nextbigfuture is just as credible as national interest; it is recycled trash. It's crystal clear that China cares much more about quality than quantity ... as they saw the 1991 Iraq war

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Hmm very interesting... can u provide me your source for 16 vs 24. Regarding number of missile tubes, it's not really that important considering that JL-3 carry mirvs. Nextbigfuture is just as credible as national interest; it is recycled trash. It's crystal clear that China cares much more about quality than quantity ... as they saw the 1991 Iraq war

A single JL-3 SLBM can travel over 12000 km with 10 MIRV thermonuclear warheads, and a single Type 096 can carry up to 160 thermonuclear warheads, and 12 of these boomers means 1920 thermonuclear warheads in maximum. That's enough firepower. For the same reason, the USN also chooses to have 16 upgraded Trident II D5 SLBMs for the next generation Columbia class SSBN.

16 is better than 24 since you don't need to carry too many eggs in one single basket.

 

[Figaro]

A single JL-3 SLBM can travel over 12000 km with 10 MIRV thermonuclear warheads, and a single Type 096 can carry up to 160 thermonuclear warheads, and 12 of these boomers means 1920 thermonuclear warheads in maximum. That's enough firepower. For the same reason, the USN also chooses to have 16 upgraded Trident II D5 SLBMs for the next generation Columbia class SSBN.

16 is better 24 since you don't need to carry too many eggs in one single basket.

Any news on the quietness of the 096. Even though the US constantly mock Chinese subs for noise....only to see one surface undetected during their exercises ... and make some lame excuse. That being said, I really feel that noise is the greatest key to survivabliy of an underwater deterrent. A single destroyed ballistic missile sub would lose 24 missiles and hundreds or warheads

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Any news on the quietness of the 096. Even though the US constantly mock Chinese subs for noise....only to see one surface undetected during their exercises ... and make some lame excuse. That being said, I really feel that noise is the greatest key to survivabliy of an underwater deterrent. A single destroyed ballistic missile sub would lose 24 missiles and hundreds or warheads

The Type 096 will be featured with the shaftless rim driven pump-jet propulsion. So it is definitely much quieter than the older Ohio class, and it looks on par with the Columbia class in both noise level and tonnage.

Since China can handily master the cutting edge technlogies like the EMALS and AAG for the aircraft carrier which the US is so proud of, and they can never imagine another country can grasp these so quickly.

So it won't be a surprise for China to pull out another technological stunt in the nuclear submarine department.