BRICs Will Be ICs If Brazil and Russia Don't Shape Up

[Judge]

He's a fillipino razakar...lol...indian logic, any one who says negative things must be a Bangladeshi, and in another thread indians try to convince us Bangladeshis love india...make up your mind!

Jamaatis(Razakars) hate us along with some sections of BNP supporters. The other(majority) Bangladeshis don't.

And how will India provide jobs for its large population? Are they all going to be software engineers? Manufacturing is the only thing that can employ such large numbers since these people will be overwhelmingly uneducated/unskilled. And we're already seeing that as some manufacturing moves away from China, it's no sure bet that they will choose India by default. Many South East Asian countries are attractive destinations with better infrastructure and, in a lot of cases, with wages just as low as what India can offer.

A large population is a double edged sword. And a large population that is unemployed or underemployed is a single edged sword with the blade pointed directly at yourself.

Yes, mass manufacturing is an essential part of the development process, UK/America/Japan etc all went through it.

Because mass manufacturing is the only thing that can provide hundreds of millions of low skilled and low paid jobs in a developing country, and it is one of the best methods of urbanization (encouraging rural workers to move to the cities).

Urbanization is necessary for development, since infrastructure becomes more efficient when the population becomes urbanized. Infrastructure in rural areas is inefficient because people are too spread out, you need to build 10x more roads and 10x more water pipelines, electricity lines, hospitals, etc.

Mass manufacturing also requires (and promotes the creation of) an efficient and competitive national infrastructure base, which is another way countries become developed.

So India needs to attract more low-level manufacturing, which is leaving China and moving to SE Asia as we speak.

Make in India - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The new GoI is cognizant of the problem and is now almost exclusively focusing on manufacturing in India. A lot of red tape is being cut and many changes being made.

Whether the initiative succeeds or not will only be known with time.

What can be said for now is that we have a very strong Government and we are making an effort for the first time.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

And how will India provide jobs for its large population? Are they all going to be software engineers? Manufacturing is the only thing that can employ such large numbers since these people will be overwhelmingly uneducated/unskilled.

You can't run a manufacturing operation with uneducated people. You need at least middle school graduates that are literate, can handle basic math (algebra and geometry) and can follow relatively complicated rules.

Otherwise, you will have people that can't operate power tools, don't understand what voltage is, etc. surrounded by power tools, high voltage and toxic chemicals, and this never works out.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Bro, I think Chinese Dragon was simply injecting a much needed dose of realism to the discussion.

IMO, China was blessed with good timing. When China became the world's factory, no other developing country could offer the same economy of scale, infrastructure, low wages, government tax breaks, and minimal government red tape/bureaucracy that China could. Add to that a shared cultural background and affinity with the now first world Asian tigers (and Japan) and you have an extremely appealing investment destination at a time when those aforementioned nations were looking for a manufacturing base for their products.

Furthermore, we had Deng Xiaoping - a true visionary who had the stones to do what it took to make sure nothing derailed China's economic expansion. IMO, Deng Xiaoping was the greatest Chinese leader of the 20th century, bar none, and he had the revolutionary credentials to make the necessary painful economic changes that couldn't be opposed by any of his political opponents. (But that's for another discussion )

I'm not doubting that India can be a manufacturing hub but there will never be a "China part 2" in the sense that once low end manufacturing starts moving away from China, there will never again be one single nation to capture all of it. India has its work cut out for it since it has to deal with competitors in the form of SE Asian nations as well as advances in technology that allow manufactures to save money while staying in their home countries (i.e. 3d printing). It will be interesting to see how India manages its challenges ahead and if it can capitalize on its demographic dividend - or indeed, if it's a dividend at all.

Oh yeah I totally agree with @ Chinese Dragon , just wanna steer him away from the fortune telling contest and discuss others.

You were right. There was one very important and and unique external environment that China had when Deng Xiao Ping decided to open up, and that's the economic ladder in East Asia during 1980's.

At that time, East Asia was already industrialized and export-oriented. HK and Taiwan had long established their overseas markets on OEM/ODM or labor-intensive manufacturing like toy, lighting, clothing, umbrella, bicycles etc. However they faced shortage of land, and labor. Immediately after Deng launched his policy, HK, Taiwan, and to some degree Japan, massively relocated their manufacturing bases to Guangdong (e.g. Li & Fung), and that sparked off the first wave in China's new age of industrialization. A second wave came soon when Taiwan tech industries massively relocate their electronics assembly lines to Jiangsu (e.g. Foxconn). Till now, Guangdong and Jiangsu are still the top 2 industrialized provinces in China.

* At that time, 70% of China FDI came from HK (included capital from TW who had to route through HK for political reasons)
* At its peak, HK and Taiwan factories employed over 30,000,000 workers in the single province of Guangdong.
* Inspired by Deng's guidance, China officials have demonstrated remarkable learning abilities and ultra-high efficiency, provided all necessary helps to HK/TW/JP factories in labor recruit, roads, rails, sea ports, airports, power/utility supply, land, taxation, import/export customs and even visa and expat housing and educations for expat kids.

Long story short, I think that pretty much summarized that unique situation at the time, and the unique value of HK/TW/JP to the initial stage of industrialization in PRC.

 

[SrNair]

You are right, Russia ranks 9th world-wide, and Brazil ranks 7th, so if they don't perform then truly BRICS is meaningless.

Why there is BRIC/BRICS in the first place? There is nothing in common between them, in fact vast difference in size and socio-politico-economic structure, everybody knows. That i-bankers tried to create a category worthy for investors i.e. those fast growing and big economies, that's all.

Energy revolution like shale gas and other techs are likely to change the whole picture, with industrialized nations resuming advantages over resources driven economies.

However trade blocs do have real meaning, complimenting economies should bind closer, forming trade alliances to reduce trade costs, improve synergy, secure existing competitive advantages and ultimately prevail. China + Russia is a good combination, the $400 bln gas co-op is a good example.

View attachment 184839

So BRICS is nothing but a term, China is >160% of Brazil + Russia + India combined.
Real efforts should be put in making SCO works as a trading bloc, consider bringing in newly industrialized countries like Pakistan, Iran, etc. forming a Eurasian trade bloc to compete with the US-led West.

Which industry in Pakistan is thrived that much to make them a new industrialzed country and emerging member?

What is wrong?Pakistan will eventually be among the biggest GDP in the world 50years from now.

Infact watch out for our GDP when we change the Base year this year.

50 years from now ??

 

[damiendehorn]

Jamaatis(Razakars) hate us along with some sections of BNP supporters. The other(majority) Bangladeshis don't

Well you indians say any Bangladeshi who likes pakistan is a razakar, and any Bangladeshi that dont like india is also a razakar. Since you indians qoute the pew research that shows 30% dont like india and 50% like pakistan, then by indian logic 30% to 50% are razakar...lol...and dont like india.

 

[SrNair]

The difference is China in the past decade grew incredibly fast (14.2% in 2007 for example) whereas India's growth rate of 4-5% isn't even the highest in South Asia.

IMF predicts that by 2025 (ten years later), India's economy would be only $5 trillion. Which is only half of China's 2014 GDP.

And that's a very optimistic prediction.

Currently, China is adding a whole India every two years.

We will have a stable powerful govt until 2019 and proabaly after that also.We just initiated our reforms and will see 8%+ growth after 2016.
You cant imagine India will always remains 5% growth in coming years.And problems due to investment lead growth already began to see in China.So we can see the real picture in near futuee.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

We will have a stable powerful govt until 2019 and proabaly after that also.We just initiated our reforms and will see 8%+ growth after 2016.
You cant imagine India will always remains 5% growth in coming years.And problems due to investment lead growth already began to see in China.So we can see the real picture in near futuee.

Yeah after 2016? Do you believe it yourself?

Anyway, I guess you missed the latest news:

China 2014 retail sales up 12% & China's industrial output grows 8.3% in 2014

Consumption now makes up the majority of Chinese economic growth, and the Services sector is much larger than the manufacturing or agricultural sector.

 

[SrNair]

Even optimistic IMF predictions think that India's GDP in 2025 will be $5 trillion.

List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

That's only half of our 2014 GDP.

And that's assuming that India's growth rate will increase to around 8%. The last time they said India would increase their growth rate, what actually happened? India's growth rate fell in half to 4-5%. Even many countries in South Asia are growing faster than that, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh for example.

And China is currently adding around $1 trillion to our nominal GDP every year. That means every two years we add an entire India.

TTA should see some quality in posts.
Did you actually we will remain in 2 trillion in next two years.
And you are talking about the real GD P growth in here .And if that is the case India had 10%+ until years ago and will regain it again when we began ti steam it
in 8% growth.

Yeah after 2016? Do you believe it yourself?

Anyway, I guess you missed the latest news:

China 2014 retail sales up 12% & China's industrial output grows 8.3% in 2014

Consumption now makes up the majority of Chinese economic growth, and the Services sector is much larger than the manufacturing or agricultural sector.

That is why we elected NDA govt.
During a hard hitting recession time we managed a 4.7% growth rate with a paralysed corruption ridden govt.Now you can imagine what would be our potential with a decisive string NDA administration.We began to reduce our interested rate and our inflation is cooled.Govt will push our economy to 10%+ no matter what , because we dont have any other choice ti give employment to our youth demography.

No problem with seeing things differently, that's very normal.

Our views are also clear, no India is not equivalent rival. We see the West as rivalry (India among other China haters very possibly be part of it, though not clear yet), Eurasia (SCO, Pakistan, Iran) as partner/ally, E Asia/SE Asia as flip opportunities, and rest of the world to rally with.

China’s Global Political Shift

Did we asked you to see us a rival ?
We dont care about it

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

TTA should see some quality in posts.
Did you actually we will remain in 2 trillion in next two years.
And you are talking about the real GD P growth in here .And if that is the case India had 10%+ until years ago and will regain it again when we began ti steam it
in 8% growth.

That is an IMF prediction for India's future GDP, are you arguing with me, or with the IMF?

As for predictions of India's future growth, I've heard it all before:

India to outpace China in 2011: World Bank - IBNLive

 

[SrNair]

That is an IMF prediction for India's future GDP, are you arguing with me, or with the IMF?

As for predictions of India's future growth, I've heard it all before:

India to outpace China in 2011: World Bank - IBNLive

Read the posts after that .The answer is there.

 

[Judge]

Well you indians say any Bangladeshi who likes pakistan is a razakar, and any Bangladeshi that dont like india is also a razakar. Since you indians qoute the pew research that shows 30% dont like india and 50% like pakistan, then by indian logic 30% to 50% are razakar...lol...and dont like india.

The razakars spread their pathological hatred using mediums like news papers or television channels which are sympathetic to their cause.

That said there are some who are influenced by these outlets. A core group of that is certainly the hardened jamaati base. The previous PM of India estimated that to be around 25%.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Did we asked you to see us a rival ?
We dont care about it

No he didn't even ask, but told me as if it is a fact.

Then the don't care is mutual. ...
But obviously he spoke out a false one-sided perception, and I would answer to that. ...

Which industry in Pakistan is thrived that much to make them a new industrialzed country and emerging member?

Pakistan has indeed made remarkable progress in industrialization, be it in defense and civilian sectors. It is still early stage but I am confident with their bright future. For more info please read: Pakistan Defence & Industry or Economy & Development , abundant reports there.

Pakistan given its perfect location, huge and young work force, should be a great compliment to the Eurasian economic bloc.

 

[SrNair]

No he didn't even ask, but told me as if it is a fact.
View attachment 185194

Then the don't care is mutual. ...
But obviously he spoke out a false one-sided perception, and I would answer to that. ...



Pakistan has indeed made remarkable progress in industrialization, be it in defense and civilian sectors. It is still early stage but I am confident with their future. For more info please read: Pakistan Defence & Industry or Economy & Development , abundant reports there. Pakistan given its perfect location, huge and young work force, should be a great compliment to the Eurasian economic bloc.

So you take that in entire higher level ?
If you were not our rival like he mentioned there then you would have been completely ignore it.But you chose it for reply ?Why?


I dont need a generalization about their industry but need specifics like exporting items ,engineering goods etc.
What about their power segment? Their production capacity of electricity.

 

[papertiger]

Russia is not on the rise, it's a declining country in the same basket as Germany or Japan.
By 2050 its population will fall to only 100m and it will still be poorer per capita than the West.

The future of the world is India, China and the US. No other countries have anywhere near the projected populations and economies to compete in absolute terms. Enough of this BRIC nonsense.

 

[Shotgunner51]

So you take that in entire higher level ?
If you were not our rival like he mentioned there then you would have been completely ignore it.But you chose it for reply ?Why?

I dont need a generalization about their industry but need specifics like exporting items ,engineering goods etc.
What about their power segment? Their production capacity of electricity.

If it is a private dialogue the yes I will absolutely ignore, as I said I don't care. However it is a forum, we come here with an intention to discuss and exchange views, and are you aware of the fact that these dialogues can be read by all viewers? That's why I have to clarify his misjudgement, which is used a basis for other discussions. If the foundation is just wrong then how can we further construct useful discussion base on it?

Their power segment is actually improving a lot with addition of new nuclear reactors (check relevant threads on this forum). As per your other needs, as I pointed out you can find numerous threads on this forum too, all you need is read.
Pakistan Defence & Industry or
Economy & Development