BRICs Will Be ICs If Brazil and Russia Don't Shape Up

[Shotgunner51]

We see things differently. We see India as a decade behind China. China too was $2 trillion dollar in 2004 and it is now $10 trillion. We see ourselves beating China as India is relatively young compared to China.

No problem with seeing things differently, that's very normal.

Our views are also clear, no India is not equivalent rival. We see the West as rivalry (India among other China haters very possibly be part of it, though not clear yet), Eurasia (SCO, Pakistan, Iran) as partner/ally, E Asia/SE Asia as flip opportunities, and rest of the world to rally with.

China’s Global Political Shift

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

We see things differently. We see India as a decade behind China. China too was $2 trillion dollar in 2004 and it is now $10 trillion. We see ourselves beating China as India is relatively young compared to China.

The difference is China in the past decade grew incredibly fast (14.2% in 2007 for example) whereas India's growth rate of 4-5% isn't even the highest in South Asia.

IMF predicts that by 2025 (ten years later), India's economy would be only $5 trillion. Which is only half of China's 2014 GDP.

And that's a very optimistic prediction.

Currently, China is adding a whole India every two years.

 

[ito]

The difference is China in the past decade grew incredibly fast (14.2% in 2007 for example) whereas India's growth rate of 4-5% isn't even the highest in South Asia.

IMF predicts that by 2025 (ten years later), India's economy would be only $5 trillion. Which is only half of China's 2014 GDP.

And that's a very optimistic prediction.

Currently, China is adding a whole India every two years.

If not in one decade, India may take another 5 years more.

As on China, 14% is for one year. On an average China grew by 10% in the last decade. With China becoming a middle income country, high growth rates may not be possible. India still being a low income country with relatively young demographics surpassing Chinese growth should be possible.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

If not in one decade, India may take another 5 years more.

As on China, 14% is for one year. On an average China grew by 10% in the last decade. With China becoming a middle income country, high growth rates may not be possible. India still being a low income country with relatively young demographics surpassing Chinese growth should be possible.

Even optimistic IMF predictions think that India's GDP in 2025 will be $5 trillion.

List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

That's only half of our 2014 GDP.

And that's assuming that India's growth rate will increase to around 8%. The last time they said India would increase their growth rate, what actually happened? India's growth rate fell in half to 4-5%. Even many countries in South Asia are growing faster than that, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh for example.

And China is currently adding around $1 trillion to our nominal GDP every year. That means every two years we add an entire India.

 

[Shotgunner51]

The difference is China in the past decade grew incredibly fast (14.2% in 2007 for example) whereas India's growth rate of 4-5% isn't even the highest in South Asia.

IMF predicts that by 2025 (ten years later), India's economy would be only $5 trillion. Which is only half of China's 2014 GDP.

And that's a very optimistic prediction.

Currently, China is adding a whole India every two years.

Don't get distracted bros, this fortune telling contest is meaningless.

Let's focus on other E Asian countries (JP+4 dragons):
One, they are world advanced economies, serious benchmarks, same culture, all make them great while feasible targets to match.
Two, they are China's geopolitical flip opportunities in the grand chess board.

Focus on Eurasia. SCO, Pakistan, Iran, etc., can form a highly competitive economic bloc. Moreover, similar geopolitical pursuits, traditional friendships make things way easier to realize. No predictions needed, just work it out.

 

[ito]

Even optimistic IMF predictions think that India's GDP in 2025 will be $5 trillion.

List of IMF ranked countries by past and projected GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

That's only half of our 2014 GDP.

And that's assuming that India's growth rate will increase to around 8%. The last time they said India would increase their growth rate, what actually happened? India's growth rate fell in half to 4-5%. Even many countries in South Asia are growing faster than that, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh for example.

And China is currently adding around $1 trillion to our nominal GDP every year. That means every two years we add an entire India.

First, I am not a big fan of predictions. I doubt anybody in the world would have predicted that China would become the second largest economy on this planet in a decade. Who knows India may spring a surprise just as China did.

The greatest thing that will go good for India is its large population. Even a small increase in per Capita will have multiple effect on overall India's GDP.

 

[jamahir]

Why there is BRIC/BRICS in the first place? There is nothing in common between them, in fact vast difference in size and socio-politico-economic structure, everybody knows. That i-bankers tried to create a category worthy for investors i.e. those fast growing and big economies, that's all.

Exactly right.

BRICs is just an investment term created by Goldman Sachs.

The better one for geopolitics is the SCO.

you two say truth and that should shut this debate... i request @waz @Jungibaaz @Horus to close this thread, and i request indian members on this thread to stop deluding themselves on the legitimacy of their present capitalism/consumerism based system.

 

[Yizhi]

Right, absence of unified thread, BRICS nothing but an i-banker term for them to pitch clients.

though i agree with you that 'BRICS' grouping is essentially BS, we have to give them some credit for establishing 'BRICS bank'. it's useful to provide an alternative other than WB for many countries.

and adding South Africa....just to woo Africans and make them feel important....

 

[farhan_9909]

Above 5% growth rate is unsustainable for Pakistan. Unless there is no stability, growth cannot be sustainable.

Leave it to us and checkout 4 months earlier Projection for Pakistan by World bank(4.3% earlier).So with the passage of time,the projection will increase?why?because of the significant reduction in terrorism across Pakistan,increase in FDI,Increase in Manufacturing and other sectors of the economy.

it might surprise you but if they are to use the same older benchmarks for Fragile state index(failed state index),than we may either be not in the top 15 or even 20 considering the year 2014.

The link below you give you the rough view of terrorism in the country in the last few years,last year reduction in fatalities was 42% But this year we will bring it to below 500 or even more

Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan 2003-2015

 

[Shotgunner51]

though i agree with you that 'BRICS' grouping is essentially BS, we have to give them some credit for establishing 'BRICS bank'. it's useful to provide an alternative other than WB for many countries.

and adding South Africa....just to woo Africans and make them feel important....

Thanks, that's one concrete action of the BRICS. However it is too small, $41 billion is like 1% of China's forex reserve (exlcude TW, HK, Macau), so small that I doubt how serious China treats this bank.

In Billion of US$:
1 China 3,946 Sep 2014
2 Japan 1,261 Dec 2014
3 Saudi Arabia 740 Nov 2014
4 Switzerland 526 Nov 2014
5 Taiwan 426 Nov 2014
6 Russia 386 Jan 9, 2015
7 Brazil 375 Nov 2014
8 Korea 363 Nov 2014
* Hong Kong 328 Nov 2014
9 India 319 Jan 2, 2015
10 Singapore 261 Nov 2014

 

[ito]

Leave it to us and checkout 4 months earlier Projection for Pakistan by World bank(4.3% earlier).So with the passage of time,the projection will increase?why?because of the significant reduction in terrorism across Pakistan,increase in FDI,Increase in Manufacturing and other sectors of the economy.

it might surprise you but if they are to use the same older benchmarks for Fragile state index(failed state index),than we may either be not in the top 15 or even 20 considering the year 2014.

The link below you give you the rough view of terrorism in the country in the last few years,last year reduction in fatalities was 42% But this year we will bring it to below 500 or even more

Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan 2003-2015

I don't see no reason why Pakistan cannot grow fast if stability returns. Pakistan has a population of 180 million with relatively young demography. That is a lot, if you compare to many countries.

 

[Echo_419]

though i agree with you that 'BRICS' grouping is essentially BS, we have to give them some credit for establishing 'BRICS bank'. it's useful to provide an alternative other than WB for many countries.

and adding South Africa....just to woo Africans and make them feel important....

Srsly why is even south africa in the BRICS thing & you are right but BRICS sound more cooler than SCO

 

[Yizhi]

Srsly why is even south africa in the BRICS thing & you are right but BRICS sound more cooler than SCO

well...BRICS bank was basically set up by a group of emerging economies that were severely pissed off by US dominating the voting power and refusing to reform the existing WB & IMF structure in serious ways even after financial crisis. China was furious at the time cause we had even less voting power than Italy (Italy!!!!) in some institutions of WB & IMF....
so China then simply said 'screw you all G7, we developing counties can have our own institutions!'
and South Africa was probably the only one in Africa continent who had a meaningful banking system....

World Bank - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

International Monetary Fund - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Shotgunner51]

well...BRICS bank was basically set up by a group of emerging economies that were severely pissed off by US dominating the voting power and refusing to reform the existing WB & IMF structure in serious ways even after financial crisis. China was furious at the time cause we had even less voting power than Italy (Italy!!!!) in some institutions of WB & IMF....
so China then simply said 'screw you all G7, we developing counties can have our own institutions!'
and South Africa was probably the only one in Africa continent who had a meaningful banking system....

View attachment 184906
World Bank - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

View attachment 184909
International Monetary Fund - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

On top of the voting power, both organizations are completely managed by the West - US will nominate World Bank president, and W Europe will nominate Managing Director for IMF (in which US effectively maintain the only veto right to block any resolution by holding >17.65% of all rights). Both organizations act as sales representative of Western corps, and attach political strings according the will of US-led West whenever applicable.

List of World Bank presidents, 1946-present, 12 terms, all Americans.
World Bank - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

List of IMF Managing Director, 11 terms, all W Europeans (5 French, 2 Swede, 1 German, 1 Dutch, 1 Belgian, 1 Spanish; 1 American was acting during 18 May 2011 - 4 July 2011).
International Monetary Fund - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Does World Bank serves interests for >190 countries of the UN?
IMF, what's "international" about it?

 

[Yizhi]

On top of the voting power, both organizations are completely managed by the West - US will nominate World Bank president, and W Europe will nominate Managing Director for IMF (in which US effectively maintain the only veto right to block any resolution by holding >17.65% of all rights). Both organizations act as sales representative of Western corps, and attach political strings according the will of US-led West whenever applicable.

List of World Bank presidents, 1946-present, 12 terms, all Americans.
World Bank - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

List of IMF Managing Director, 11 terms, all W Europeans (5 French, 2 Swede, 1 German, 1 Dutch, 1 Belgian, 1 Spanish; 1 American was acting during 18 May 2011 - 4 July 2011).
International Monetary Fund - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Does World Bank serves interests for >190 countries of the UN?
IMF, what's "international" about it?

that's why i think the BRICS bank is important to the global financial structure which was built single-handed by US with Bretton Woods Conference in 1944. though 'BRICS' the grouping doesn't make much sense, it does represent some rebellion effort to challenge the post war US-led West global financial institutions, which the action itself has very profound meaning.
actually, if WB and IMF had functioned just fine, China and many other Asian countries wouldn't have needed to accumulate such huge pool of foreign reserves. WB & IMF are already notorious for their extremely slow reaction to crisis .....

and we all know what US means when they say 'international', don't we?