Today I have completely discounted chaudhry nisar. He is a high class liar.
I always thought that nisar is one of very very few gentlemen in pmln who should join pti. Now if he does and IK accepts him, I will consider leaving pti.
Anyway, I am sticking to my earlier analysis of the current situation.
1 - Army has shown proofs of Maryam's involvement in Cyrils case. She is the original source of disinformation against Army.
2 - Government presented names of two individuals to be sacrificed so that the humiliation Army has faced after publication of that report in dawn can be minimized.
3 - Army asked government to take action themselves against the two so that they are not considered a party.
4 - Government agreed to identify and dismiss the two but requested Army to give some time for their arrests (until IKs threat is neutralized.
5 - Army (shamelessly tbh) agreed.
6 - Government asked for support against IK.
7 - Army rejected, saying that they will keep their eyes closed. Govt. has to take whatever action is necessary.
8 - Government has started using force against IK thinking that Army will not interfere. Their assumption is 100% correct.
9 - Govt is thinking that sacrificing two goats is enough to bring temperature down. Their assumption is again correct to a certain extent. In fact Army didn't have any plan to take action against the main culprit, first she is a lady, second, she is probably the future pm of Pakistan. She may turn into another mohtarma benazir and Army doesn't want it to happen.
10 - As per Army, pmln has the capability to open many fronts if any action is taken against the ruling elite. Some include, LOC, sabotaging CPEC, Karachi unrest, external pressure from US, internal pressure from popular parties such as pmln, PPP, MQM-Pak, MQM-London (both are one), Afghanistan front, cancellation of loans from different international banks to fund CPEC projects, Balochistan, media movement, lawyers movement etc. Army cannot handle all of this sh*t alone, as the real opposition lacks numbers and support.
11 - Army only wants that Cyril like case doesn't happen again and this can be accomplished by suspending two working ministers so that a message is passed to others that this is the red line (although they can't do much even if the red line is crossed again to be honest).
12 - If IK brings over 200 K people on second november, it will give a boost to Army's falling morale and confidence that is severely hurt due to recent pressure from India and US, internal pressure from PMLN and PPP in Sind.
13 - Government knows that if IK is succeeded in bringing over 200 k people, Army "may" dictate its terms to government on many other sensitive issues.
The situation till today is what I have mentioned above. What is there for us tomorrow, only Allah knows. Allah may give strength to our Army to fight a multi front war.
Now people must realize that they have to come out and forcefully remove all hurdles on 2nd nov, or accept the status quo as their destiny.
Army doesn't have capability to handle the situation created by pmln. They have public support in the biggest province. They have external support of India and US. They have support from financial institutions such as IMF and ADB. Army doesn't have any of these. Plus there is threat from India who is spending so much on defense equipment that will effectively neutralize any threat from Pakistan.
Sorry for being blunt but this is the reality. I am waiting for November 2nd as I have stated in many of my ealier posts. After that Pakistan's affairs will become just as useless to me as let say Madagascar's...
@Farah Sohail .. Please don't listen to Dr. Shahid Masood, Asad Kharal, Arif Bhatti, Sabir Shakir unless your blood pressure is rising and you want some false hopes to bring it down. If you want to listen to real tv journalists, you can watch anyone other than these four. Haroon Rasheed and other seniors are good analysts.
Edit (Added): One more thing, Army has been told that if they take any action (major or minor) against Maryam, NS along with all the parliament members, including those of PPP JUIF MQM etc will resign and start a country wide protest. That;s why I was surprised when you quoted a journalist that PM is resigning in 48 hours. Army has clarified that if PM resigns and tries to become a martyr despite defensive posture of Army, then they will fight a final war. But this will lead to a civil war in Pakistan just like Syria and Libya. Army knows that and our friends (China and some other countries in west asia) have repeatedly asked Army to have patience until CPEC is complete.