Bloomberg: China risks repeating the mistakes of the Soviet Union in the confrontation with the United States

[Khan vilatey]

AS long as China military spending in GDP percentage is still below US, China economy will not be dragged with the race that US try to hold.

China should keep building up asymmetrical weapons against US military might instead of pursuing similar quantity with that of US.

I agree the arms race is focused on the us. I love the naivety of the modern fundu , this is what happens when one learns history from social media!

China is a communist country and they never declare the correct military budget, the budget presented to the world is probably 1/10 of the money they spend . Here is the detail

China is building a battleship a day , 5th and 6th generation aircraft and countless hours of research with hilariously low defence budget. These two numbers dont Add up. The Soviet Unions defense budget was also hilariously low but they had 25000 tanks in Europe 5 times more than all of nato. It’s all in how you account for stuff

k

 

[Khan vilatey]

AS long as China military spending in GDP percentage is still below US, China economy will not be dragged with the race that US try to hold.

China should keep building up asymmetrical weapons against US military might instead of pursuing similar quantity with that of US.

My apologies I did not read your post properly and reacted
K

 

[MH.Yang]

I agree the arms race is focused on the us. I love the naivety of the modern fundu , this is what happens when one learns history from social media!

China is a communist country and they never declare the correct military budget, the budget presented to the world is probably 1/10 of the money they spend . Here is the detail

China is building a battleship a day , 5th and 6th generation aircraft and countless hours of research with hilariously low defence budget. These two numbers dont Add up. The Soviet Unions defense budget was also hilariously low but they had 25000 tanks in Europe 5 times more than all of nato. It’s all in how you account for stuff

k

1. The military expenditure announced by the Soviet Union has always been very high. In 1976, the United States announced $91 billion in military spending and the Soviet Union announced $120 billion in military spending.
2. China and the Soviet Union are not the same economic model. There are a lot of trade exchanges between China and Western countries. Whether China's GDP data is true can be verified by other countries.
3. U.S. weapons R & D costs are borne by companies and enterprises and are not included in military expenditures. On the contrary, China's weapons R&D is in the charge of state-owned enterprises, and China's military expenditure has special military R&D funds.
4. Look at China's investment in infrastructure, poverty alleviation, B & R, aerospace and other aspects, as well as the substantial progress of Chinese people's living standards. Do you really think the proportion of China's military spending is false?

BTW: The USA is now in the midst of severe inflation. China's CPI is only 0.8%.

 

[bilibili]

This is rather an emotional response than a fact-based post.
1) The US Navy's 2/3 CBG's in SCS mean the Chinese navy is 100% countered. Add Australia's submarines and ships, IN ships and submarines and UK's navy (not even touching EU yet).
2) Add 300-400 ready to go -22's and -35's at all times (supplemented by -18's), these will neutralize about 75-80% of the PLAAF / PLN air crafts. Again, not touching Japan, Taiwan, Australian or Indian jets.

3) AND MOST important, New York or Florida (lol, hilarious example) are with the US, not separated states for 70 years. If you must link them, Taiwan may be Mexico, a separate country. Your logic means, India saying "Pakistan was a part of us and it got cut, we want it back", when Pakistan is an independent country for the past 70 years I think, and so is Taiwan. These tall claims are historical and the world lives in 2021.

4) China can rise, there is no stopping to it. But it can't "defeat" the US/Australia/UK/Japan/Taiwan/Vietnam/India. I hope logic can make sense to you.


Useless to argue. When you decide to act blind and don't want to process information, these emotional posts usually result. Why don't you review my post and come back with numbers and strategies to show me how China will counter what I've explained?

“US/Australia/UK/Japan/Taiwan/Vietnam/India”，the name list pls only keep India/ Australia.

 

[GumNaam]

22 septembre 2021

Bloomberg Agency considered that China, which is facing a strategic dilemma amid the accumulation of military capabilities of Washington and its allies in East Asia, risks repeating the mistakes of the Soviet Union.

The agency noted that China should draw several lessons from the Soviet experience.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union three decades ago, Chinese leaders studied the causes and concluded that one of the Soviet Union’s biggest mistakes was engaging in a costly arms race with the United States that ultimately bankrupted the Soviet economy.

Bloomberg also indicated that against the background of the accumulation of US military capabilities in East Asia, Beijing faces a “similar strategic dilemma”, and therefore the attempt to catch up with US military power will require China to radically increase its defense spending, and as a result the country may find itself in the same trap that fell. in the Soviet Union.

“However, the inability to confront the US military build-up could make China more vulnerable and weaker,” she added.

​

She considered that the US decision to arm Australia with nuclear submarines is a manifestation of China’s “dilemma”, and that Washington is effectively defying Beijing by provoking a new arms race with it.

She stated that at present China enjoys an unenviable strategic position, as it is forced to confront the military capabilities of the United States and its allies in the Pacific Ocean at the same time.

According to Bloomberg, given the technological superiority of the United States as well as its weapons stockpile after decades of excessive military spending, China cannot count on winning a new arms race, noting that it is more useful for Beijing to focus on diplomacy to improve the security situation.

​

In addition, the main reason for the success of the United States in mobilizing Japan, India and Australia is the countries’ fear of China’s growing military capabilities as well as the ongoing territorial disputes, meaning that the Celestial Empire (referring to China) must strive to resolve these disputes and defuse the tension in Relationships with neighboring countries.

She noted that given the mistrust and mutual hostility had reached dangerous levels, it was equally important for China to start doing business with the United States again.

She also stated that China should learn several lessons from the Soviet experience, adding that Soviet leaders continued to invest in a losing arms race because they feared that the United States would strike first. However, these fears were completely unfounded.

She stressed that a nuclear-armed China need not fear a US attack, and that the Soviet Union succeeded in preventing the Cold War from turning into an armed conflict by cooperating closely with the United States and developing protocols and rules to prevent accidental conflicts.


Source: “Bloomberg”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...deal-shows-china-will-lose-arms-race-with-u-s

bloomberg is fast loosing its credibility, and I mean at a rapid pace. it's a historical fact that after loosing the Vietnam War, their WAS no confrontation between ussr and usa. usa was scared shitless of ussr, wouldn't dare get into a confrontation, didn't get into confrontation is 71 war and now in the Afghan soviet war. until it was half way through. I know and remember american media icons like phil donahue in the early 80s and other news talk shows like 60 minutes that there is just no way the u.s. and europe combined can withstand a soviet conventional onslaught and that they will HAVE to go nuclear first, psychologically, ussr had subdued the united states big time. usa only won the cold war because Pakistan & the afghans confrontation the ussr using saudi money with just a sprinkle of american weapons. let's face it, usa was so scared of ussr that their only military contribution to the war was a handful of stingers and 40 F16s, not even worthy of any mention. ussr failed itself by being TOO drunk on its power. China is much smarter and wiser than the arrogant soviets. China is going to catch up to the u.s. military but at the pace of the tortoise. slowly, steadily but surely. it is the united states that is defence spending itself to death in spite of being $30 trillion dollars in the shit hole. that is EXACTLY what China WANTS the u.s. to do, practically "defend" itself to death. the fact is that the united states along with a few of its pacific islander cronies including australia are no threat to China, they are no match for the Chinese PLA Navy. China knows that. Their trade routes are safe and secure under the watchful eyes of China's immense land based anti-shipping hypersonic ballistic missiles along with a PLA Navy that is steadily increasing size at a normal pace that does not burden their economy. A simple test of ONE, cheap missile throws washington into a panic frenzy that causes them to borrow hundred of billions to some how counter "some new missile threat" from China...that is EXACTLY what wants them to do, borrow borrow and borrow so much that they have tax the living shit outta their tax payers to either become bankrupt or collapse as a union of states where all the states basically say that fck this shit, we're declaring independence and running away from all this debt!

america's wrinkly old war mongering chicken hawks are China’s greatest secret weapon.

 

[DJ_Viper]

“US/Australia/UK/Japan/Taiwan/Vietnam/India”，the name list pls only keep India/ Australia.

Are you saying Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan and UK won't fight you?

 

[nang2]

BTW: The USA is now in the midst of severe inflation. China's CPI is only 0.8%.

Actually both are in serious inflation and it has been for many years. USA has payment deficit, which helps prevent inflation from being realized as other countries are soaking it up for US. China, on the contrary, has payment surplus, which imports inflation through exports. Both have the similar symptoms of ongoing inflation:
1. fast increasing property price;
2. people move away from fixed obligations, like saving, bonds, etc, showing distrust in currency;
3. inflated education, teaching people knowledge that are useless in production;
4. frenzy in making money with money.
5. Production sectors under stress while service sector flourishes. USA is in much bigger trouble than China in this area.

 

[MH.Yang]

Are you saying Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan and UK won't fight you?

Look at the reply of all Americans in this post. You all put your hopes on your allies, not the USA itself. This shows that you all know that the USA is weakening day by day, and you don't think other countries can see it?
Taiwan will perish at the beginning of the war. Vietnam will not participate in the war. Britain is too far away. India will attack Pakistan, not China. Like the Korean War, Japan will try to avoid direct participation in the war. It hopes to weaken China and the United States at the same time, and then get rid of its colonial status.
If there is a war between the USA and China, the only allies the USA can rely on are AUKUS and Canada.

 

[MH.Yang]

Actually both are in serious inflation and it has been for many years. USA has payment deficit, which helps prevent inflation from being realized as other countries are soaking it up for US. China, on the contrary, has payment surplus, which imports inflation through exports. Both have the similar symptoms of ongoing inflation:
1. fast increasing property price;
2. people move away from fixed obligations, like saving, bonds, etc, showing distrust in currency;
3. inflated education, teaching people knowledge that are useless in production;
4. frenzy in making money with money.
5. Production sectors under stress while service sector flourishes. USA is in much bigger trouble than China in this area.

1. Because the govt cracked down on house prices, China's house prices are falling, which is one of the reasons why Evergrande is in trouble.
2. The savings rate of Chinese people has been very high.
3. The Chinese tradition is to pay special attention to education.
4. Chinese people also invest, but not as crazy as Americans.
5. China's productivity is strong, but it will not cause inflation, and it may lead to overproduction.

 

[tower9]

1. Because the govt cracked down on house prices, China's house prices are falling, which is one of the reasons why Evergrande is in trouble.
2. The savings rate of Chinese people has been very high.
3. The Chinese tradition is to pay special attention to education.
4. Chinese people also invest, but not as crazy as Americans.
5. China's productivity is strong, but it will not cause inflation, and it may lead to overproduction.

I am concerned with how controlling the govt has been over the economy and enterprises as well. Command economies usually produce terrible results. What is going on with the energy crisis in the North and how bad do you think the situation will get?

 

[MH.Yang]

I am concerned with how controlling the govt has been over the economy and enterprises as well. Command economies usually produce terrible results. What is going on with the energy crisis in the North and how bad do you think the situation will get?

Chinese people haven't had a power outage for 30 years. Why did they suddenly cut power in 2021? China has the largest coal reserves in the world, and its reserves are four times that of the USA(the 2nd reserves). Why is China unwilling to reopen coal mines in Shanxi Province?
Let me tell you. When the USA completes the conditions given to them by China, China will suddenly have no shortage of coal.

 

[CriticalThinker02]

China is overall very strong .. no doubt about it..
But let's keep it rational here:

China Defense Budget Is $ 178 200 000 000
The US Defense Budget is $ 740 500 000 000

This is where the arms race come in..

Majority of that budget is going towards waging wars in other countries and countless expensive bases throughout the world, not towards strength building.

 

[CriticalThinker02]

Let's make a balanced equation so it makes sense to the readers. Please list:
1) China's defense budget VS.
2) USA's defense budget
3) Japan's defense budget
4) UK's defense budget
5) Australia's defense budget
6) India's defense budget

Now tell me how on earth you can even come close to starting an arms race? I've not listed Vietnam, Taiwan and EU yet!

If you want to have a balanced equation, then include the check mates China has successfully achieved to some of your allies like India, China now controls over 1000 sq km land of Ladakh and won't be fighting the Indians over seas but up on the mountains, unlike the south China sea where India does not stand to gain anything significant, it is poise to lose sizeable territories where it is the weakest as a consequence for standing up to China, what can the US provide to counter China in Ladakh?. the QUAD is already threatened.

 

[nang2]

Chinese people haven't had a power outage for 30 years. Why did they suddenly cut power in 2021? China has the largest coal reserves in the world, and its reserves are four times that of the USA(the 2nd reserves). Why is China unwilling to reopen coal mines in Shanxi Province?
Let me tell you. When the USA completes the conditions given to them by China, China will suddenly have no shortage of coal.

That is the weirdest train of thoughts.

1. Because the govt cracked down on house prices, China's house prices are falling, which is one of the reasons why Evergrande is in trouble.
2. The savings rate of Chinese people has been very high.
3. The Chinese tradition is to pay special attention to education.
4. Chinese people also invest, but not as crazy as Americans.
5. China's productivity is strong, but it will not cause inflation, and it may lead to overproduction.

Cracking down house prices is to tackle the symptom, not the cause. Much like price control never being able to reduce the inflation throughout the human history.

Overproduction is a uniquely wrong idea by Karl Marx. The whole idea of the existence of the economy is scarcity.

I believe one of ills of China is in fact over education, which breeds an army of so called intellectuals with stiff heads.

 

[CriticalThinker02]

I hope that after a thousand years, mankind will have no distinction between countries, political parties and religions. Everyone is rich, everyone has received higher education, and everyone is working for the progress of human civilization. There is no war, exploitation, discrimination, inequality.

War is humanity's nature, as long as the human civilisation exists war will as well, if we were a peace loving species, we would already achieved peace by now.