Bihar election verdict and its implications in Indian politics

[Crixus]

The defeat in Bihar is kind of positive for BJP , if Lalu will return on his old glorious days and ways then people ( mainly those who are in their 20's) of this county will know what they ( third front and Congress ) will do the country if they come to power in center ,
If Nitesh played in hands of lalu then Bihar will end up in worse situation then it was in 90s . People of Bihar will end up doing experiement again with themselves like genie pigs and whole country will learn lesson . I was young but still remember how the Lalu's goon's plundered the Tata showroom's in Bihar during his daughter's weeding . and how Shilpi Jain was raped and treated after her murder .
God save Bihar

 

[dray]

EI sob chere write about :bihar-election-verdict-and-its-implications-in-bengal-politics and discuss kora jak

Bengal is screwed...another term of TMC is almost guaranteed now. CPM is not good either, but better than TMC for sure...they have a chance if they go for a pre-poll alliance and seat sharing with Congress, Congress is nothing in Bengal, but they can add crucial 6-7% votes to CPM, TMC doesn't need Congress now. BJP has gone into some kind of understanding with TMC for its support in Loksabha, it will remain alone and insignificant with 10% vote share and a few seats, TMC won't go with BJP either to save its minority votebank.

 

[magudi]

@Rain Man Thanks for the tag mate

IMHO Bihar loss is a blessing in disguise for bhajpa - lemme tell you how , there is a growing feeling within the party that Bhagwat's comments on review of reservation policy - not once but thrice contributed significantly to BJP's drubbing.Now Modi knows this as well - for he himself had to go around shouting rally after rally that they will not touch reservations as it stands today however we must remember Modi is a man who neither forgets nor forgives - the situation is acutely similar to early days of his chief ministerial-ship in Gujarat when he got fed up of rabble rousing Sangh Parivar elements both within the party and outside it which resulted in him cutting them down to size and keeping them at an arms length from then on.

I however disagree with you on the Nitish being PM candidate of UPA part.Nitish may have been the favorite Cabinet minister of VP Singh but he himself is no VP singh.Though Singh managed to cobble up an alliance of convenience which included Left and even BJP in the late 80's to lead a rebellion against Rajiv Gandhi , Modi is no Rajiv and i don't see the likes of Mayawati,Mulayam or Yechury rallying behind Nitish.Add to this the fact that Nitish doesn't have much of an appeal outside of Bihar even within Bihar its Lalu who has become the fulcrum of polity and will run the show from now on.However an increasingly marginalized Congress led by pappu would be willing to cede space to Nitish to stay relevant.

On the economic front most of the fears are over exaggerated we'll continue more or less the same way as we are doing now.Even if BJP managed to barely scrape through in the Bihar elections it wouldn't have made much of a decisive difference to its Rajya Sabha tally.Although it is true that Modi will have to handle a rejuvenated opposition from here on , any economist worth his salt would tell you that things like the watered down version of GST that Jaitley is pushing for presently is no reform.An overwhelming majority of things that need reform including financial sector structures or tax arbitrariness are executive decisions and don't need much in terms of parliament legislation.The problem with Jaitley is that he is an easy-goer content with working within the confines of structures created by his predecessors , there is no doubt that that he has a good understanding of the art of political repartee, and a sound legal mind but what Modi needs is someone who thinks out of box , a risk taker who can differentiate NDA's economic policies from that of UPA.

 

[Bang Galore]

[

I however disagree with you on the Nitish being PM candidate of UPA part.Nitish may have been the favorite Cabinet minister of VP Singh but he himself is no VP singh.Though Singh managed to cobble up an alliance of convenience which included Left and even BJP in the late 80's to lead a rebellion against Rajiv Gandhi , Modi is no Rajiv and i don't see the likes of Mayawati,Mulayam or Yechury rallying behind Nitish.Add to this the fact that Nitish doesn't have much of an appeal outside of Bihar even within Bihar its Lalu who has become the fulcrum of polity though an icreasingly marginalized Congress led by pappu would be willing to cede space to Nitish to stay relevant.

On the economic front most of the fears are over exaggerated we'll continue more or less the same way as we are doing now.Even if BJP managed to barely scrape through in the Bihar elections it wouldn't have made much of a decisive difference to its Rajya Sabha tally.Although it is true that Modi will have to handle a rejuvenated opposition from here on , any economist worth his salt would tell you that things like the watered down version of GST that Jaitley is pushing for presently is no reform.An overwhelming majority of things that need reform including financial sector structures or tax arbitrariness are executive decisions and don't need much in terms of parliament legislation.The problem with Jaitley is that he is an easy-goer content with working within the confines of structures created by his predecessors , there is no doubt that that he has a good understanding of the art of political repartee, and a sound legal mind but what Modi needs is someone who thinks out of box , a risk taker who can differentiate NDA's economic policies from that of UPA.

Jaitley is a very sharp guy but not what was needed for finance. he thinks too much like a lawyer & not much like an economist. His MoS, Jayant Sinha, is very good though I'm not sure he has it in him to be a risk taker. However moving Jaitley is a big decision & I don't know if Modi would be inclined to do that.

 

[Darmashkian]

@Darmashkian @Star Wars @Abingdonboy @magudi @SarthakGanguly looking forward to discuss the future of Indian political scenario (I think I can only take five members).

Boss , I am doing a post poll analysis of why the BJP lost & How(the he!!) RJD did so well..

After my analysis. I will do the below things in the given order:-
1)Post it & tag all of you
2)Rebut,discuss & agree with your points in the first post
3) Then State what I think could be the future of Indian politics & Policy after before.

Let me make one thing clear, there is more to this defeat than meets the eye. In terms of causes & consequences.. I still can't believe that RJD is the SLP

I have to discuss some things with my contacts/sources/friends & observe a few happenings. For eg:- Lalu's behavior & Nitish's & much more

& I am still a teenager. So I suffer from a lack of time due to college work, hope you understand any delay.

& Thanks for tagging me.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P.S:- I agree AND disagree with you on the cow & beef politics point, will say why later.

 

[thesolar65]

The next election is set for West Bengal, right? The competition is tough with Mamata Di & CPM. The people are much more educated, don't care about caste, religion or whatever happened in Bihar.

BJP must change its strategy and make some good friends. And house arrests the motor mouths prior one month before election and till the end.

@Rain Man

 

[Darmashkian]

@Star Wars I have to agree with you on one point.. Development & vikas played no role in the BJP's defeat..
By the way I have a plea of you.. on the day the results came out, can u tell me what Lalu's face & attitude was & what NiKu's also was like?

Who do you think seemed more happy & arrogant? THAT is a very important indicator

@Rain Man Boss, since you started this thread. I want to give you a small trailer of my analysis.

BJP was the ONLY party talking about vikas. NiKu only talked about his good work when he was bashing Modi cause most of his good work consisted of cleaning up his present ally's mess which he didn't want to remind people about.

& Lalu is the enemy of development & progress... this guy didn't even bother to mutter one word about it or pretend to care about it. All his rhetoric was merely abuse , attacking Upper castes & "reservation khatre me hain."

[& I have heard some disturbing stuff on what the lower rung leaders & karyakartas of the RJD had said during campaigning which I will tell later]

So if the BJP wasn't focussing enough on development, how did the biggest enemy of Bihar's development -RJD become the single largest party?

Also let me point out 1 irony to you:-
Phases 1-3 where there was no mention of beef & pakistan, NDA got 26 seats.
Phases4-5, where the beef & pakistan campaign statements started NDA got 32 seats..
Also let me add the Phase-5 was a total MGB stronghold going by cadre no. & demographics, MGB should have got 50+ going by the results in the rest of Bihar, but it did not.

But yes Sakshi Maharaj's statements were useless & of no effect.

 

[Star Wars]

@Star Wars I have to agree with you on one point.. Development & vikas played no role in the BJP's defeat..
By the way I have a plea of you.. on the day the results came out, can u tell me what Lalu's face & attitude was & what NiKu's also was like?

Who do you think seemed more happy & arrogant? THAT is a very important indicator

Did not really watch, though i know Lalu was happy.. But in all honesty, i doubt this govt will survive for 1-2 years..

 

[Mitro]

Most of Hindus are secular and BJP is in power because Muslim did vote for congress .
Hindus will get tired of this extremist and will vote them out for their antics .
They come on power because people wanted change but they realized their mistake .
It's a eye opener for BJP if they don't leave their sadhus they will not come back in majority phir se milli julli Sarkar in center

 

[Star Wars]

@ranjeet @SwAggeR Banned from politics section

@magudi BJP lost less in 20 Lakh votes in Bihar and besides whom would BJP ally with anyway in Bihar other than RJD and JDU ?

 

[dray]

Who do you think seemed more happy & arrogant? THAT is a very important indicator

Both were happy, Nitish looked satisfied and Lalu was more arrogant...in fact very arrogant.

@ranjeet @SwAggeR Banned from politics section

WTF!!

 

[ranjeet]

@ranjeet @SwAggeR Banned from politics section

lol I did warned you, you are banned from the thread or the whole section?

 

[SwAggeR]

@ranjeet @SwAggeR Banned from politics section

@magudi BJP lost less in 20 Lakh votes in Bihar and besides whom would BJP ally with anyway in Bihar other than RJD and JDU ?

Me too !!

lol I did warned you, you are banned from the thread or the whole section?

Political thread is almost the section in itself. Banned from that sticky thread.

That jehadi got us !!

 

[Darmashkian]

Both were happy, Nitish looked satisfied and Lalu was more arrogant...in fact very arrogant.



WTF!!

Lalu was very arrogant & Nitish who should have been the happiest man alive after crushing the man because of whom he left the NDA & was humiliated was just " satisfied" .. That tells us enough on what their expectations for the future are.

Lalu knows the alliance has won primarily because of his rhetoric & his cadre. The fact that RJD is th SLP+14 of his nominees in the Congress won proves it. He will now try to slowly take over this govt & take more than his pound of flesh.

His daughter even wanted the CM post for herself after promising for more than 6 months that only NiKu would be the CM!!!

Nitish knows Lalu will do this & will now be planning/fearing for the future which is why he is only satisfied.

& even if he can control Lalu & his MLAs,he cannot control the RJD goondas & local bahubalis who have finally attained power after 10 years of what they call "suffering"

Attacks & goondagardi has gone up in Bihar going by ETV-Bihar/UP. Some college girls were told the other day in Patna by the frequent gang of eve-teasers that " Hamari sarkar aa gayi hain. AB dekh lena kya hoga "

Police forces all over Bihar have been involved in clashes with RJD & JDU karyakarta. One businessman's son has been kidnapped & a ranso of 40 lakh has been demanded!!

It seems jungle raj has truly returned

 

[Star Wars]

Lalu was very arrogant & Nitish who should have been the happiest man alive after crushing the man because of whom he left the NDA & was humiliated was just " satisfied" .. That tells us enough on what their expectations for the future are.

Lalu knows the alliance has won primarily because of his rhetoric & his cadre. The fact that RJD is th SLP+14 of his nominees in the Congress won proves it. He will now try to slowly take over this govt & take more than his pound of flesh.

His daughter even wanted the CM post for herself after promising for more than 6 months that only NiKu would be the CM!!!

Nitish knows Lalu will do this & will now be planning/fearing for the future which is why he is only satisfied.

& even if he can control Lalu & his MLAs,he cannot control the RJD goondas & local bahubalis who have finally attained power after 10 years of what they call "suffering"

Attacks & goondagardi has gone up in Bihar going by ETV-Bihar/UP. Some college girls were told the other day in Patna by the frequent gang of eve-teasers that " Hamari sarkar aa gayi hain. AB dekh lena kya hoga "

Police forces all over Bihar have been involved in clashes with RJD & JDU karyakarta. One businessman's son has been kidnapped & a ranso of 40 lakh has been demanded!!

It seems jungle raj has truly returned

So for the lolz i asked an astrologer uncle of mine how things will go for Modi and shah. he replied bad news in 2016 and even worse mid 2016 and good news since 2017